Where would corbyn be without massively unpopular blairites so busy knocking doors to get him votes.
There is no window to being elected for that ubuntu guy- or the others. Fptp or not they are just not having voters backing them.
Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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There is no window to being elected for that ubuntu guy- or the others. Fptp or not they are just not having voters backing them.
Lexicus
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That is true but as far as I can tell the general public will listen more to a party that can credibly claim it represents an alternative to the status quo, rather than a party that will enforce the status quo "more competently" or whatever the idea is. Here's a question - honest question, because I don't know the answer - are the MPs on the right flank of Labour attacking austerity? Are they still defending the party's record of carrying out austerity policies out of "necessity" under Gordon Brown?
If they are, I do not expect they will be of much help in getting the general public to vote for Labour.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Precisely @Silurian, and when it comes to the issues such as the EU: there is:
(a) the general public
(b) the labour vote in general elections
(c) the labour party membership
(d) the Parliamentary Labour party; and
(e) Jeremy Corbyn.
There is no line that suits them all. And Jeremy is quite wise not to be too forward
in rushing out to push any particular line, as it will likely annoy more than it pleases.
At the moment, the status quo is being in the European Union.
An interesting question. I would say that they attack austerity half-heartedly.
But they'r rumbled as favouring business interests over individual voters.
(a) the general public
(b) the labour vote in general elections
(c) the labour party membership
(d) the Parliamentary Labour party; and
(e) Jeremy Corbyn.
There is no line that suits them all. And Jeremy is quite wise not to be too forward
in rushing out to push any particular line, as it will likely annoy more than it pleases.
At the moment, the status quo is being in the European Union.
An interesting question. I would say that they attack austerity half-heartedly.
But they'r rumbled as favouring business interests over individual voters.
The ex-Labour MPs aren't necessarily villains or careerists but they are happy to form a new party with ex-Tories who still defend austerity as necessary. I don't believe all centrists are opportunists and self-seeking but I do believe they are totally out of touch with most ordinary people, Leavers or Remainers. IMO their comfortable liberalism is better than the chauvinism and selfishness of the right but their concerns won't do anything to help those struggling on low incomes or stuck in rented accomodation because the housing market exists for speculation, not for housing.
Lexicus
Deity
The status quo is draconian cuts to public spending. What do you think the EU has to do with that?
EnglishEdward
Deity
My point is that the The Independent Group is in favour of Remaining in the European
Union, that is the current status quo, and therefore it is not in any way radical.
And if the UK truly leaves the EU 29 March 2019, the Independent Group become reactionaries.
Union, that is the current status quo, and therefore it is not in any way radical.
And if the UK truly leaves the EU 29 March 2019, the Independent Group become reactionaries.
Lexicus
Deity
My point is that whether y'all are in the EU or not is a way less important component of the "status quo" than you (and most people with strong feelings on the issue) seem to think.
Silurian
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It is the Corbyn supporters knocking on doors trying to get the "blarite" general public to vote for Labour. If Labour does not get the "blarite" general public to vote for them they will not gain power.
Blair is not liked in the UK because of Iraq, and his spin and smarminess. Most of his policies are widely supported.
I don't think many people remember austerity under the last Labour government or their plans for austerity if they had won in 2010. I do not recall the Conservatives attacking Labour for austerity in recent years; what are they going to say you had austerity too but it was not as bad as us, some campaign slogan. Many on the wet wing of the Conservative Party are also saying that austerity has been bad in parts and May has announced that "austerity is over". No the Conservatives will try to avoid talk of austerity.
Lexicus
Deity
So does that Conservative avoidance of austerity talk and the declaration that "austerity is over" signal a genuine policy shift? Are we going to see Parliament move to increase public spending on things like council housing and the NHS?
If that is true, then why was the Labour membership so disgusted with the leadership of Blair's successors that they elected Corbyn? Are the views of Labour members so far out of line with those of the general public?
Silurian
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It is mostly a lie.
Corbyn was only elected by accident. He only just received enough nominations from MP's to stand.
From The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/15/labour-leadership-contest-jeremy-corbyn
Labour and Conservative members are more politically engaged and have stronger views than the general public. Why would you join a political party if you did not have strong views. Prospective MP's know that to win they have to get the votes of people who do not have strong views, which is why most MP's do not reflect all the views of the members.
Lexicus
Deity
So I take it you think the Labour Party should ditch him and go on with Blairism because the public supports that?
One third having a more rightish or business minded opinion should not be enough to ditch Corbyn: the broad church.
But two-thirds disagreeing with his style of party politics is a real issue.
Here an article of today on that:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...n-blairite-socialists-labour-leadership-party
Nothing really special leftish indeed imo
According to some this person who wrote the article is a Blairite ???
EnglishEdward
Deity
Silurian is correct, it is mostly a lie.
There is no policy shift within the conservative party, but there is a shift in public perceptions. There is no per capita growth, and there are
massive deficits in the UK, the conservatives are constrained by ideology and vested interests from increasing taxation to incease public spending.
Gordon Brown and Edward Milliband were de facto Blairites and they lost their general elections. There were four candidates for LofLP and three of them
were even less impressive Blairites. IMO Jeremy Corbyn was voted for primarily because, unlike them, he was considered an effective campaigner.
I think that his left wing ideology was more a secondary consideration, but I have no magic insight into the minds of the membership.
I don't think they considered the suitability of Jeremy Corbyn as a Prime Minister. He is not young and 2020 was a long time away in 2015.
Yes
Lexicus
Deity
Well I agree with you, but I was unsure what the point of referring to Corbyn's election as an "accident" was. It seems to me that his election - again, not once but twice - was a sincere expression of the views and desires of a majority of Labour Party members. It seems like the only reason to refer to it as an "accident" would be to imply that this is not the case and that he is in some sense not the legitimate leader of the party.
An article that's making me think I must have missed some things in British politics recently. I find the accusation that Corbyn's leadership has made bullying acceptable to be absurd for example. But maybe there are things I don't know about.
As far as I understand the arcane British electoral system, Corbyn had to win a majority of the general membership but first he had to get the backing of a subset of it, which, as quoted above, only came in at the last moment.
It was an accident him getting the 15% of Labour MPS to allow him to stand. He got almost half the members to vote for him, over 80% of registered supporters (people who contribute a small amount of money), and almost 60% of affiliated members (trade unionists and a few small groups). Well over double his nearest rival in each category of voter. That was 2015. It was even more decisive the 2nd time.
There have been a lot of online attacks made on Labour MPs, some vicious or anti-Semetic, and some were made by Corbynites. No evidence its an organised campaign and its an increasingly common thing nowadays. I doubt there are many MPs who haven't had some threatening or abusive E-Mails or online comments. Women, especially from ethnic minorities recieve the most, and Dianne Abbott most of all.
Stronk and stable.
Theresa May must go in three months, cabinet ministers say
Senior Tories to make clear PM should give way to new leader for next phase of Brexit
Cabinet ministers will make it clear they believe Theresa May should step down after the local elections in May and allow a new leader to deliver the next phase of the Brexit negotiations, the Guardian understands.
Senior figures in government have suggested they want the prime minister to leave shortly after the first phase of the Brexit negotiations finishes – or risk being defeated in a vote of no confidence at the end of the year.
May wants to stay in place for long enough after Brexit to secure a political legacy beyond the fraught negotiations. But some ministers believe she should announce the timeline for her departure “on a high” after the local election results, paving the way for a Conservative leadership contest over the summer.
Brexiters in the cabinet are keen to see a new leader take over for the next stage of the negotiations with the EU, which May has already pledged will involve more active involvement for politicians rather than advisers.
The hardening mood among cabinet ministers on the timeline for her departure will place further pressure on May before a critical week of Brexit talks and votes amid a febrile climate in Westminster.
On Thursday the Guardian revealed that remainer ministers emboldened by the departure of three MPs to the Independent Group (TIG) were threatening to rebel against her leadership to prevent a no-deal outcome – daring her to sack them.
And in a fresh blow to May, three cabinet ministers publicly say they would back moves to delay Brexit if she fails to get her deal through parliament.
In a joint newspaper article, Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, David Gauke, the justice minister, and the business secretary, Greg Clark, say they want to ensure the UK does not crash out of the EU without a deal on 29 March. And they insist they are prepared to defy the prime minister and join those MPs pushing for an extension to article 50 if there is no significant progress next week.
Writing for the Daily Mail on Saturday, they argue that a no-deal Brexit would wreck the country’s economy and put its security at risk. “If there is no breakthrough in the coming week, the balance of opinion in parliament is clear – that it would be better to seek to extend article 50 and delay our date of departure rather than crash out of the European Union on 29 March,” they write.
“It is time that many of our Conservative parliamentary colleagues in the ERG recognised that parliament will stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit on 29 March. If that happens, they will have no one to blame but themselves for delaying Brexit.”
Ministers who want May to go are confident that if Brexit can be delivered on time in March, the party should be able to secure some promising results in the local elections that would provide a face-saving context for her early departure. Any extension to article 50 beyond 29 March would be likely to scupper the preferred timeline.
May pledged to Conservative MPs before the confidence vote in December that she would stand aside before 2022, though later made it clear she intended to stand should there be a snap election.
Cabinet ministers had hinted they would not like to see May take charge of the spending review later this year – which would set the direction of departmental spending until the next election.
The prime minister has a year’s grace before another confidence vote could be called. Should she refuse to go this year, at least one cabinet minister has said they believe she would be ousted by another confidence vote if one were called at the end of the year. Her position could become untenable sooner if enough senior colleagues were to resign or publicly express their dissatisfaction with her leadership.
Although Brexiters inside and outside of the cabinet, as well as former remainers who have now enthusiastically embraced leaving, believe new leadership is needed for the next phase of negotiations, it is unlikely that they will coalesce around a single candidate.
Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt, as well as Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Dominic Raab are all likely to want to test their support bases among MPs, whereas Tories from the softer wing of the party are more likely to coalesce around one name, Amber Rudd. However, a Brexiter is likely to be far more popular with the membership.
If a leader with the backing of the hard Brexit-supporting European Research Group were to take charge, there are concerns that MPs on the left of the party could defect to TIG.
May is understood to have taken some convincing that she needed to pledge to step down in order to defeat the confidence vote held before Christmas and is keen to undertake a “domestic reset”.
However, the legislation involved for parliament’s second session view makes it difficult for the prime minister to make significant changes, with much of the domestic agenda already announced, including May’s flagship legislation on domestic violence.
The prime minister faces potential defeat in parliament next Wednesday, with scores of backbenchers and up to 25 ministers prepared to vote for an amendment tabled by Yvette Cooper and aimed at securing an extension to article 50. May has promised to table a motion in the House of Commons on Wednesday – which MPs will be able to amend – if she has not been able to put a revised withdrawal agreement to parliament by then.
She will fly to an EU-Middle East summit on Sunday, where she will hold bilateral meetings with senior figures including the European council president, Donald Tusk, as part of attempts to secure “legally binding” changes to the backstop.
Downing Street said the prime minister had spoken to 26 of the EU’s 27 leaders in the past fortnight, as she tries to convince them to make changes she can sell to MPs.
“She will have a period of engagement again, on Sunday, Monday, with EU leaders,” a spokesman for the prime minister said. “She has said it is not easy”.
The Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, and the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox – whose legal advice on the backstop is critical to convincing Brexiters to support the deal – will return to Brussels on Monday, as technical talks between the two sides continue.
Privately, though, senior government sources played down the likelihood of any deal being reached in the next few days that May could put before MPs.
A spokeswoman for May said: “We are working very hard to bring it back as soon as possible … Work is continuing at pace to achieve the changes we need.”
Senior Tories to make clear PM should give way to new leader for next phase of Brexit
Cabinet ministers will make it clear they believe Theresa May should step down after the local elections in May and allow a new leader to deliver the next phase of the Brexit negotiations, the Guardian understands.
Senior figures in government have suggested they want the prime minister to leave shortly after the first phase of the Brexit negotiations finishes – or risk being defeated in a vote of no confidence at the end of the year.
May wants to stay in place for long enough after Brexit to secure a political legacy beyond the fraught negotiations. But some ministers believe she should announce the timeline for her departure “on a high” after the local election results, paving the way for a Conservative leadership contest over the summer.
Brexiters in the cabinet are keen to see a new leader take over for the next stage of the negotiations with the EU, which May has already pledged will involve more active involvement for politicians rather than advisers.
The hardening mood among cabinet ministers on the timeline for her departure will place further pressure on May before a critical week of Brexit talks and votes amid a febrile climate in Westminster.
On Thursday the Guardian revealed that remainer ministers emboldened by the departure of three MPs to the Independent Group (TIG) were threatening to rebel against her leadership to prevent a no-deal outcome – daring her to sack them.
And in a fresh blow to May, three cabinet ministers publicly say they would back moves to delay Brexit if she fails to get her deal through parliament.
In a joint newspaper article, Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, David Gauke, the justice minister, and the business secretary, Greg Clark, say they want to ensure the UK does not crash out of the EU without a deal on 29 March. And they insist they are prepared to defy the prime minister and join those MPs pushing for an extension to article 50 if there is no significant progress next week.
Writing for the Daily Mail on Saturday, they argue that a no-deal Brexit would wreck the country’s economy and put its security at risk. “If there is no breakthrough in the coming week, the balance of opinion in parliament is clear – that it would be better to seek to extend article 50 and delay our date of departure rather than crash out of the European Union on 29 March,” they write.
“It is time that many of our Conservative parliamentary colleagues in the ERG recognised that parliament will stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit on 29 March. If that happens, they will have no one to blame but themselves for delaying Brexit.”
Ministers who want May to go are confident that if Brexit can be delivered on time in March, the party should be able to secure some promising results in the local elections that would provide a face-saving context for her early departure. Any extension to article 50 beyond 29 March would be likely to scupper the preferred timeline.
May pledged to Conservative MPs before the confidence vote in December that she would stand aside before 2022, though later made it clear she intended to stand should there be a snap election.
Cabinet ministers had hinted they would not like to see May take charge of the spending review later this year – which would set the direction of departmental spending until the next election.
The prime minister has a year’s grace before another confidence vote could be called. Should she refuse to go this year, at least one cabinet minister has said they believe she would be ousted by another confidence vote if one were called at the end of the year. Her position could become untenable sooner if enough senior colleagues were to resign or publicly express their dissatisfaction with her leadership.
Although Brexiters inside and outside of the cabinet, as well as former remainers who have now enthusiastically embraced leaving, believe new leadership is needed for the next phase of negotiations, it is unlikely that they will coalesce around a single candidate.
Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt, as well as Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Dominic Raab are all likely to want to test their support bases among MPs, whereas Tories from the softer wing of the party are more likely to coalesce around one name, Amber Rudd. However, a Brexiter is likely to be far more popular with the membership.
If a leader with the backing of the hard Brexit-supporting European Research Group were to take charge, there are concerns that MPs on the left of the party could defect to TIG.
May is understood to have taken some convincing that she needed to pledge to step down in order to defeat the confidence vote held before Christmas and is keen to undertake a “domestic reset”.
However, the legislation involved for parliament’s second session view makes it difficult for the prime minister to make significant changes, with much of the domestic agenda already announced, including May’s flagship legislation on domestic violence.
The prime minister faces potential defeat in parliament next Wednesday, with scores of backbenchers and up to 25 ministers prepared to vote for an amendment tabled by Yvette Cooper and aimed at securing an extension to article 50. May has promised to table a motion in the House of Commons on Wednesday – which MPs will be able to amend – if she has not been able to put a revised withdrawal agreement to parliament by then.
She will fly to an EU-Middle East summit on Sunday, where she will hold bilateral meetings with senior figures including the European council president, Donald Tusk, as part of attempts to secure “legally binding” changes to the backstop.
Downing Street said the prime minister had spoken to 26 of the EU’s 27 leaders in the past fortnight, as she tries to convince them to make changes she can sell to MPs.
“She will have a period of engagement again, on Sunday, Monday, with EU leaders,” a spokesman for the prime minister said. “She has said it is not easy”.
The Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, and the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox – whose legal advice on the backstop is critical to convincing Brexiters to support the deal – will return to Brussels on Monday, as technical talks between the two sides continue.
Privately, though, senior government sources played down the likelihood of any deal being reached in the next few days that May could put before MPs.
A spokeswoman for May said: “We are working very hard to bring it back as soon as possible … Work is continuing at pace to achieve the changes we need.”
Silurian
Deity
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- Jan 5, 2010
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- 7,567
To stand for election as leader of the Labour Party in 2015 the candidates had to be nominated by 15% of the Labour MPs. Corbyn came last, excluding those who were not nominated, with only 15.5% of the nominations. Some of the people who nominated him did not want him to win just wanted him to express his views. So he got on the ballet paper by the nominations of people who underestimated his appeal to the wider membership and won, I call that an accident but it could also could be called stupidity or Labour MPs being out of touch with the wider Labour membership.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
I think Labour has got to stick with Corbyn as he clearly has the support of the wider Labour membership. If he had been voted out on the second election the Labour membership who supported him would have grudgingly accepted it. But unless something changes there is no reason for a third vote, so he is safe until the next election or he loses control due to Brexit defections and rebellion.
Corbyn's leadership is weak, only 15% of MP's nominated him, and appears to allow bullying because of his inaction and lack of leadership. So he has a small group who truly support him in parliament but has wide support in the Membership. It is not surprising that things have become personal.
You expected the guardian of blairism to write something different?
You know, britain is messed up, not as much as my own country but messed up nonetheless, and this tribalism and opportunism will not end well.
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