Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

[Traitorfish]

Basically Labour took the whole of Scotland for granted. They thought "we can do pretty much what we like and they will still vote for us because they hate the tories so much - and we can cope with the more rural areas voting Lib Dem - they are inconsequential. Then along come the SNP with their own brand of left wing/nationalist government whilst offering a viable alternative, and they hoovered up - virtually wiping Labour out as a force in Scotland. The potential is there for this to happen in England and Wales too - but with one crucial difference. The disaffected and disenchanted wont go to another centre left/left party, they will go to the Brexit Party.

That's not an unfair description, but I don't really understand how we can describe it as "tribalism". What you're describing seems to be, rather, the assumption on that part of the leadership that the behaviour of voters would be far more tribal than it actually was.

I also don't think that the dynamics that drove voters from Labour in Scotland would push them towards the Brexit Party. The archetypal Labour to SNP migrant is under 50, completed further or higher education, and living in or around a city. The archetypal Labour to UKIP/Brexit voter is over 50, lacking in formal education, and isolated from urban centres. They represent substantially different constituencies; the only thing they have in common is the vague description as "disenchanted".

 

[Lexicus]

The repeated invocation of "tribalism" and "purity" to describe what other people call "principles" is also familiar to me from US politics.

 

[sherbz]

That's not an unfair description, but I don't really understand how we can describe it as "tribalism". What you're describing seems to be, rather, the assumption on that part of the leadership that the behaviour of voters would be far more tribal than it actually was.

I also don't think that the dynamics that drove voters from Labour in Scotland would push them towards the Brexit Party. The archetypal Labour to SNP migrant is under 50, completed further or higher education, and living in or around a city. The archetypal Labour to UKIP/Brexit voter is over 50, lacking in formal education, and isolated from urban centres. They represent substantially different constituencies; the only thing they have in common is the vague description as "disenchanted".

I would say the archetypal Labour to Brexit voter tends to be the under 50, working class voter actually. I know its not an ideal measurement, but my facebook friends list numbers 600 - which includes all sorts - people i grew up with, went to university with, worked with etc. So they are from all walks of life (the majority of friends i grew up with did not go to university). However, nearly all of that 600 are below the age of 50 - probably about 90%. And i would say the vast majority of people who didnt go to university, or dont have a skilled job, or have lived in one place their whole life, are Brexit supporting. Also of that demographic, very few if any have or will at some point in the near future be in a position to buy or own their own property. And mostly i think they feel hacked off that it doesnt really matter what they do - whether they work hard or save - they will never achieve a comparable level of wealth that is enjoyed by others. And Brexit is seen as a rallying call by many of them to try and build something "better". Ultimately they feel as though they have been abandoned. And thats a damning indictment of both Labour and Tory. The sad fact is though that Brexit is a project orchestrated by the super wealthy to try and ensure that tax deregulation and tax on business remains, or is kept, as low as possible.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Farage in talks about joining far right grouping in EU parliament
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...p-in-eu-parliament/ar-AAC5OvN?ocid=spartanntp

I can't see him joining them. It would do his image in the UK no good at all and since he doesn't intend to be there for long the greater access to money and influence that belonging to a group gives wouldn't benefit the Brexit Party much.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I would say the archetypal Labour to Brexit voter tends to be the under 50, working class voter actually. I know its not an ideal measurement, but my facebook friends list numbers 600 - which includes all sorts - people i grew up with, went to university with, worked with etc. So they are from all walks of life (the majority of friends i grew up with did not go to university). However, nearly all of that 600 are below the age of 50 - probably about 90%. And i would say the vast majority of people who didnt go to university, or dont have a skilled job, or have lived in one place their whole life, are Brexit supporting. Also of that demographic, very few if any have or will at some point in the near future be in a position to buy or own their own property. And mostly i think they feel hacked off that it doesnt really matter what they do - whether they work hard or save - they will never achieve a comparable level of wealth that is enjoyed by others. And Brexit is seen as a rallying call by many of them to try and build something "better". Ultimately they feel as though they have been abandoned. And thats a damning indictment of both Labour and Tory. The sad fact is though that Brexit is a project orchestrated by the super wealthy to try and ensure that tax deregulation and tax on business remains, or is kept, as low as possible.

Its also a damning indictment of the LDs given the years they spent propping up a Tory government and its unnecessary austerity.

 

[Lexicus]

Farage in talks about joining far right grouping in EU parliament
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...p-in-eu-parliament/ar-AAC5OvN?ocid=spartanntp

I can't see him joining them. It would do his image in the UK no good at all and since he doesn't intend to be there for long the greater access to money and influence that belonging to a group gives wouldn't benefit the Brexit Party much.

Yeah, I just read that the Brexit Party was so successful in part because Farage drew a (factually dubious, in my opinion) distinction between the "extremist" UKIP and his own respectable self. So it seems like joining with the far-right group would be shooting himself in the foot on the "respectability" front.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Yeah, I just read that the Brexit Party was so successful in part because Farage drew a (factually dubious, in my opinion) distinction between the "extremist" UKIP and his own respectable self. So it seems like joining with the far-right group would be shooting himself in the foot on the "respectability" front.

Yes, they might be his natural home, but hes canny enough to keep his distance.

 

[Traitorfish]

Surprise as the guardian is openly blairite

Hm, is there any national newspaper which presents views closer to the leadership of the labour party? Cause the guardian sort is blue labour. @Traitorfish ?

The only one with an explicitly pro-Corbyn editorial line is the Morning Star, the old Communist Party newspaper. This of course has a much more limited circulation than most national papers. Of the major papers, the Daily Mirror is probably the closest: it's not really pro-Corbyn, but unlike the Guardian, is not aimed at an audience which is sympathetic to Corbyn's policies, if not his personality.

The repeated invocation of "tribalism" and "purity" to describe what other people call "principles" is also familiar to me from US politics.

More fundamentally, "tribalism" is taken to exist in opposition to the liberal ideal of the free-thinking, self-sufficient individual. But this image of ideal voter as a Victorian gentleman reviewing the newspaper does not describe politics for the vast majority of people, who do not have the luxury of treating politics as a puzzle to be solved. "The tribe", the sense of identification with a movement or a tradition greater than yourself, is an essential way of mobilising support for egalitarian and redistributive policies, and was for most of the last two centuries an explicit goal of the socialist movement. Far from the throwback suggested by the patronising language, it's a thoroughly modern form of politics.

Sherbz bemoans Labour's losses to the SNP, but how does he think the SNP achieved that? Precisely by substituting a Labour "tribe" with a Scottish "tribe". For better or worse, Scottish nationalism has acquired the identity, the self-narrative, of collective progress which was previously associated with social democracy.

I would say the archetypal Labour to Brexit voter tends to be the under 50, working class voter actually. I know its not an ideal measurement, but my facebook friends list numbers 600 - which includes all sorts - people i grew up with, went to university with, worked with etc. So they are from all walks of life (the majority of friends i grew up with did not go to university). However, nearly all of that 600 are below the age of 50 - probably about 90%.

I don't really know how much incite we can glean from what you appear to admit is anecdotal evidence.

The below YouGov survey represents voting intentions in the EU elections, broken down by age groups, and appear to bear out the claim that support for Brexit and the Brexit Party specifically correlates with age.

For comparison, I've included a similar survey of voting patterns in the 2017 general election. What this mostly appears to shows is that the Brexit Party has primarily mobilised disgruntled Tories, but we can similarly see that Labour is competing more directly with the Brexit Party in older groups.

Spoiler :

 

[sherbz]

The only one with an explicitly pro-Corbyn editorial line is the Morning Star, the old Communist Party newspaper. This of course has a much more limited circulation than most national papers. Of the major papers, the Daily Mirror is probably the closest: it's not really pro-Corbyn, but unlike the Guardian, is not aimed at an audience which is sympathetic to Corbyn's policies, if not his personality.


More fundamentally, "tribalism" is taken to exist in opposition to the liberal ideal of the free-thinking, self-sufficient individual. But this image of ideal voter as a Victorian gentleman reviewing the newspaper does not describe politics for the vast majority of people, who do not have the luxury of treating politics as a puzzle to be solved. "The tribe", the sense of identification with a movement or a tradition greater than yourself, is an essential way of mobilising support for egalitarian and redistributive policies, and was for most of the last two centuries an explicit goal of the socialist movement. Far from the throwback suggested by the patronising language, it's a thoroughly modern form of politics.

Sherbz bemoans Labour's losses to the SNP, but how does he think the SNP achieved that? Precisely by substituting a Labour "tribe" with a Scottish "tribe". For better or worse, Scottish nationalism has acquired the identity, the self-narrative, of collective progress which was previously associated with social democracy.


I don't really know how much incite we can glean from what you appear to admit is anecdotal evidence.

The below YouGov survey represents voting intentions in the EU elections, broken down by age groups, and appear to bear out the claim that support for Brexit and the Brexit Party specifically correlates with age.

For comparison, I've included a similar survey of voting patterns in the 2017 general election. What this mostly appears to shows is that the Brexit Party has primarily mobilised disgruntled Tories, but we can similarly see that Labour is competing more directly with the Brexit Party in older groups.

Spoiler :

Yes I know that the older generation are more likely to vote for Brexit. But theres plenty in the lower age bracket too - and i was trying to identify what types of younger people they are. And its those people who feel abandoned by the parties. My assumption on the elderly is that they are just a bit racist

 

[Ironsided]

Abandoned by society is a state of existence that will make you adverse to the norms.

 

[Takhisis]

Surprise as the guardian is openly blairite

There's quite a few other points of view if you take the trouble to actually read the paper.

This reads mostly as a bitter complaint that Labour has not adopted the position of the author wrt Brexit. "Adopting my position on [issue] is the no-brainer path to total electoral victory" is a type of appeal I'm quite familiar with from US politics.

The repeated invocation of "tribalism" and "purity" to describe what other people call "principles" is also familiar to me from US politics.

A weak and unprincipled legislature, elected through manipulation of the electoral system including weird boundaries, refusing to do its job and instead pinning all blame on a buffoonish executive is also familiar to me from US politics.

 

[Kyriakos]

There's quite a few other points of view if you take the trouble to actually read the paper.

There is no fun in reading :/

 

[Takhisis]

I've just reread one of your stories.

 

[Lexicus]

A weak and unprincipled legislature, elected through manipulation of the electoral system including weird boundaries, refusing to do its job and instead pinning all blame on a buffoonish executive is also familiar to me from US politics.

Yeah

 

[innonimatu]

A general election probably won't solve the problem anyway (unless the Brexit Party wins an outright majority ).

With FPTP they can do that. As I said, prepare for PM Farage. Bonus points for remainers in shooting your own foot if that is brought about by preventing PM Boris through judicial chicanery.

Do not underestimate how obnoxious obstruction to brexit can piss off and gather its supporters around a single issue party.

I would say the archetypal Labour to Brexit voter tends to be the under 50, working class voter actually. ... And i would say the vast majority of people who didnt go to university, or dont have a skilled job, or have lived in one place their whole life, are Brexit supporting. Also of that demographic, very few if any have or will at some point in the near future be in a position to buy or own their own property. And mostly i think they feel hacked off that it doesnt really matter what they do - whether they work hard or save - they will never achieve a comparable level of wealth that is enjoyed by others. And Brexit is seen as a rallying call by many of them to try and build something "better". Ultimately they feel as though they have been abandoned. And thats a damning indictment of both Labour and Tory. The sad fact is though that Brexit is a project orchestrated by the super wealthy to try and ensure that tax deregulation and tax on business remains, or is kept, as low as possible.

That makes sense, support for the EU is a class thing. Who have they managed to buy off? The upper classes everywhere but in the UK*. The "professional classes" (the remnants of the former middle class). And those who still foolishly believe they will be allowed to make it into a large middle class, as if destroying that wasn't already done (young people still going thorough university).


* Everywhere but the UK because indeed the upper classes in the UK for a long time felt at ease with their power within the country. While the EU is perceived as a shield against democratic demands that might redistribute the power and wealth amassed by national elites in the continental countries, in the UK most of the are so arrogant that they believed they didn't need the EU for that!
I believe some have now had second thoughts, witnessing the "threat of red Corbyn taking over Labour". The championing of a "deal", of the "Withdrawal Agreement" by a sizeable portion of the tories didn't came out of nothing, it came out of that general election that failed to put an end to Corbyn's Labour.
But now there is a new factor in play, the the implosion of the UK's political system. They might just be arrogant enough that they believe this implosion will also undo Labour and be to their benefit. So they have not yet swung as a body against brexit. They may though. They would if they were less blinded by their arrogance. I hope they remain blinded long enough to let it through and undo themselves...

I don't really know how much incite we can glean from what you appear to admit is anecdotal evidence.

The below YouGov survey represents voting intentions in the EU elections, broken down by age groups, and appear to bear out the claim that support for Brexit and the Brexit Party specifically correlates with age.

You would be well advised to keep in mind that surveys are political tools and the results easy to manipulate.
I wouldn't dismiss anecdotes any more than I will surveys.

 

[Arakhor]

Why are "we" remainers still at fault here? We haven't had any say in the issue since 2016 or 2017.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

There is no such thing as a clean break. There never has been and there never will be. The fact that people still believe this is baffling.

Hence my ‘clean break’ in inverted commas. Pray tell me what words I should have used good sir. Would synonyms like ‘No deal’ or ‘WTO rules’ be acceptable, pray tell, good sir.

I'll grant you that voting for a party with zero manifesto is morally more acceptable than voting for a far-right Islamophobic party. It's politically wildly inadvisable though, as you have literally no idea what you're voting for.

The manifesto of a party in an EU election, at the best of times, means diddly squat. Especially a (hopefully) one off protest vote like this.
And when you consider both the Tories and Labour promised to carry out Brexit in their manifestos but have been doing just about everything in their power not to do so shows that any manifesto is not worth the paper they are written on. (Not forgetting the LieDems and their Uni. Fees etc.)

I didn't vote Labour on Thursday either, so I'm not sure for which single issue you think I'm voting.

After you congratulated me for not voting for a far-right Islamophobic party, UKIP, may I take this opportunity of congratulating you on not voting for a far-left anti-Semitic party: Corbyn’s Labour.
Not that I am trying to compare UKIP and Labour, you understand. That would be unfair on UKIP.
After all, UKIP has not, unlike Corbyn’s Labour, been dragged before the Equality and Human Rights Commission on charges of racism (as Labour was this week).
Labour is only the second party to be so accused. The other is the BNP no less.
What a fine pair they make – Corbyn’s Labour and the BNP. They deserve each other.

Do not underestimate how obnoxious obstruction to brexit can piss off and gather its supporters around a single issue party.

Spot on.

 

[Kyriakos]

Why are "we" remainers still at fault here? We haven't had any say in the issue since 2016 or 2017.

Remainer mps (including the house speaker) have. Recall the amendment that passed with one vote (with so many mps who voted remain not to be re-elected).
The entire situation is a mess. I hope the result will be some type of lexit, but things are getting rather hideous.

 

[Arakhor]

After you congratulated me for not voting for a far-right Islamophobic party, UKIP, may I take this opportunity of congratulating you on not voting for a far-left anti-Semitic party: Corbyn’s Labour.
Not that I am trying to compare UKIP and Labour, you understand. That would be unfair on UKIP.
After all, UKIP has not, unlike Corbyn’s Labour, been dragged before the Equality and Human Rights Commission on charges of racism (as Labour was this week).
Labour is only the second party to be so accused. The other is the BNP no less.
What a fine pair they make – Corbyn’s Labour and the BNP. They deserve each other.

I didn't congratulate you and you don't need to congratulate me, as if that's some sort of telling remark. You also seem to have confused me for a Labour voter - I certainly don't vote for them when it's not simply a Labour or Tory choice.

 

[Hrothbern]

After almost a dozen Tory MP's joining the PM race trying to out-Farage eachother with firm statements on re-negotiating and a cleaner than clean Brexit...

Philip Hammond has announced that if no one else would join determined to stop a no-deal Brexit... he would.

Philip Hammond today admitted he would stand to be leader if no candidate was determined to stop No Deal Brexit at all costs.
The Chancellor also admitted that he would be willing to back a second referendum if MPs are still unable to break the ongoing deadlock preventing Britain leaving the EU on October 31.
He said today: 'I certainly wouldn't want to see this leadership contest going forward with no-one presenting an agenda on the Brexit question that was in line with the views that I hold.'
Mr Hammond also refused to rule out voting against a Tory Government in a Commons no-confidence showdown if Britain was in danger of crashing out of the EU on Halloween.