Brexit Thread VIII: Taking a penalty kick-ing

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The USA didn't intervene.

They were happy to remain neutral on the basis of letting the crocodile eat the other fish.

Hitler declared war on them.

Any luck there was in Adolph's misjudgement regarding Japan and the USSR.
 
The USA didn't intervene.

They were happy to remain neutral on the basis of letting the crocodile eat the other fish.

Hitler declared war on them.

Any luck there was in Adolph's misjudgement regarding Japan and the USSR.

The UK declared war on Germany in autumn 1939... and meddled on without much of an action afterwards.

Not every declaration of war is really followed up by a war.
You get a kind of twilight, a bit like the Cold War.
(a bit like now with Corona... some sense of approaching disaster... and waiting)

It was still Roosevelt who pushed to war.
He knew the isolationist club in the US, he knew that the US people would not follow him, that they saw only the Japanese attack... and Hitler forcing the issue by declaring war on the US was vey convenient for Roosevelt.
But Roosevelt had done what he could to provoke Hitler with his navy to protect convoys to the UK: the US was in a factual war with German U-boats.
If Roosevelt would not have done that... the UK would not have gotten help... the Germans would have eaten up the UK by isolating them.
 
Just imagine that the Windsors would have become German Battenbergs... omg... it would show that Germans are everywhere... the Sonnenkinder took over the world... follow that other German Trump and all the Germanic fly-over areas in the US.

Given that George V only changed the family dynasty from Saxe-Coburg-Gotha to Windsor in 1917 due to anti-German sentiment during WWI, that would have been a rather futile gesture to then switch to Battenberg/Mountbatten in 1952. (It was also something that Prince Philip was always rather steamed about.)
 
But Roosevelt had done what he could to provoke Hitler with his navy to protect convoys to the UK: the US was in a factual war with German U-boats.

Yes, but that was only because Adolph Hitler had his U boats in the
Western Atlantic off the American coasts sinking neutral shipping.

It was Hitler's decision to go well beyond a blockade around the UK.
 
Yes, but that was only because Adolph Hitler had his U boats in the
Western Atlantic off the American coasts sinking neutral shipping.

It was Hitler's decision to go well beyond a blockade around the UK.

ls no reason for war !
Just skirmishes

here a list of atttacks of China and Japan on US units before it became really war with Pear Harbor:
Attacks on Americans
On 22 February 1932 while delivering a China Republic biplane, US Lt [Reserve] Robert McCawley Short is killed in aerial combat with IJN aircraft.
On 20 August 1937 In a friendly fire incident Chinese artillery strikes USS Augusta (CA-31) killing seaman 2/c F.J. Falgout of Raceland, Louisiana[1] and wounding 18.[2]
On 31 August 1937 In a friendly fire incident Chinese warplanes accidentally attack SS President Hoover killing Mess Steward S. Haskell[3] and wounding 1 crewman and six passengers.[4]
On 30 November 1937 the American tugboat Felting at the French concession at Shanghai is seized by the Japanese; the U.S. Flag is thrown overboard and a wooden plaque on the ships origin is torn off and used to strike a Chinese crewman; the tug was "returned" 1 December 1937.[5]
On 12 December 1937 the attack on the United States gunboat USS Panay by Japanese forces in China (usually referred to as the Panay incident) could be considered as the first hostile American action during World War II. Two U.S. Navy crewmen and two civilians were killed; 43 Navy crewmen and five civilians were wounded. Although the war was not officially declared in Europe until Germany invaded Poland on 1 September 1939, Japan had been involved in military actions against China since 1931.
On 26 January 1938, in what was known as the Allison incident, John M. Allison, at the time consul at the American embassy in Nanking, was struck in the face by a Japanese soldier. Even though the Japanese apologized formally on 30 January (after the Americans demanded they do so), this incident, together with the looting of American property in Nanking that took place at the same time, further strained relations which had already been damaged by the Panay incident less than two months earlier.
On 24 August 1938 in the Kweilin incident a CNAC DC-2 at Zhongshan China was strafed by Japanese fighters; American pilot Hugh Leslie Woods was one of only 3 survivors of 17 passengers and crew; the plane was later destroyed on 29 October 1940 as CNAC DC-2 number 39
On 3 September 1939 SS Athenia was the first British liner to be torpedoed and sunk after Britain declared war on Germany, by U-30. Total casualties were 112, including 28 US citizens.[6]
On 21 April 1940 the first American military death in the European Theatre occurred during the German invasion of Norway.[7] Military attaché Captain Robert M. Losey was killed during a German bombardment of Dombås while assisting with the evacuation of U.S. embassy personnel and others to Sweden.[7]
On 29 October 1940 CNAC DC-2 number 39 was attacked by Japanese Fighter planes at rural Changyi Airfield in Yunnan; American Pilot Walter "Foxie" Kent killed along with 1 crew and 7 passengers.
On 4 September 1941 during the "Greer Incident" the destroyer USS Greer was fired upon with torpedoes by U-652.
On 18 October 1941 HMS Broadwater was sunk by U-101. Among the fatalities was Lt John Stanley Parker RNVR an American [8]
Either the casualties inflicted on USS Kearny by U-568 on 17 October 1941 (11 KIA)[9] or the sinking of the USS Reuben James by U-552 on 31 October 1941, (115 KIA)[10] might be considered the first American naval losses of World War II. The United States was neither officially involved in the war at the time nor did the incidents cause it to declare war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First...orld_War_II_before_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

war is not the tit-tat exchange
war is something you declare
real war is when you execute real actions of war after a declaration of war

As I said
Europe was just lucky that the US gave Europe the full treat !

Given that George V only changed the family dynasty from Saxe-Coburg-Gotha to Windsor in 1917 due to anti-German sentiment during WWI, that would have been a rather futile gesture to then switch to Battenberg/Mountbatten in 1952. (It was also something that Prince Philip was always rather steamed about.)

Which underpins my point to Kyr that the "Germans" are "everywhere" and have to hide in disguise because of all those sentiments :)
 
Well, what is the alternative? To just accept peoples' status as self proclaimed
experts without checking their credentials and simply believe everything they say.
People should be evaluated in context, relevant to a specific situation. You can't generalise about hypothetical experts and not expect to get called on it.

Feel free to check whoever you want to check. Like I said, I just wish you did the same for any part of the current ruling party. It gets frustrating when there's common, widespread criticism of how the government handles any various things (including Brexit) and you're there to opine on how they're the "best of a bad bunch", but as soon as someone wheels out independent experts you're the first to get critical.
 
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@ Hrothbern : The discussion is perhaps more appropriate to a history thread. In my experience,
a significant proportion of the US public believe that when little Britain got into difficulties with Hitler,
and called for assistance, they out of the goodness of their hearts kindly decided to come and help us
so we should be for evermore grateful. That is why I dislke terminology about American intervention.

@ Gorbles: As it is impossible to be specific about hypothetical experts on no particular
question, any comment on them, must, by a process of elimination, be a generalisation.
 
So apparently "UK and EU’s post-Brexit trade negotiations ... have ground to a halt because of the global pandemic"

What have these people been doing? If actually they have 2nd jobs on the front line of the health service, they get a pass. If they have just not bothered to continue the negotiations over zoom or Riot.im or whatever then these people should lose their jobs. I know it is harder to not meet face to face, but it is more difficult for everyone and everyone else is trying.

Also, bloomberg reckons that Brexit (that has not really happened yet) has already cost us £130 billion, and by the end of the year could approach the total payments from the UK to the EU (£156 billion unadjusted, £216 billion in real terms up to 2018). I would suggest that making such a statement cannot be much more accurate than throwing a dart at a dart board, but it gives an idea of the scale.
 
So apparently "UK and EU’s post-Brexit trade negotiations ... have ground to a halt because of the global pandemic"

What have these people been doing? If actually they have 2nd jobs on the front line of the health service, they get a pass. If they have just not bothered to continue the negotiations over zoom or Riot.im or whatever then these people should lose their jobs. I know it is harder to not meet face to face, but it is more difficult for everyone and everyone else is trying.

Also, bloomberg reckons that Brexit (that has not really happened yet) has already cost us £130 billion, and by the end of the year could approach the total payments from the UK to the EU (£156 billion unadjusted, £216 billion in real terms up to 2018). I would suggest that making such a statement cannot be much more accurate than throwing a dart at a dart board, but it gives an idea of the scale.


The site would only let me read so much before it realised I was not a subscriber.

As far as I could see its so called cost of Brexit was the difference
in GDP growth between a projected curve and the actual curve.

In so much as the UK is still in the EU's domain under the transition, that cost;
if meaningful, I could argue would be better called the cost of not Brexiting.

In practice I've noticed that projected UK growth rates are rarely met in 40 years.

The way I see it negotiations are clearly at an impasse, and none of
the working negotiators have the authority to move beyond their briefs.

And the political leaderships see no value in getting involved as they
would likely be blamed for neglecting dealing with Corvid 19; and of
course Corvid 19 would be a very convenient excuse for failure to agree.
 
The site would only let me read so much before it realised I was not a subscriber.

As far as I could see its so called cost of Brexit was the difference
in GDP growth between a projected curve and the actual curve.

In so much as the UK is still in the EU's domain under the transition, that cost;
if meaningful, I could argue would be better called the cost of not Brexiting.

In practice I've noticed that projected UK growth rates are rarely met in 40 years.

The way I see it negotiations are clearly at an impasse, and none of
the working negotiators have the authority to move beyond their briefs.

And the political leaderships see no value in getting involved as they
would likely be blamed for neglecting dealing with Corvid 19; and of
course Corvid 19 would be a very convenient excuse for failure to agree.
I think you are right. It just makes it clear that the current leadership never really cared about getting brexit done, just winning elections to be in a position to line their and their mates pockets.
 
So apparently "UK and EU’s post-Brexit trade negotiations ... have ground to a halt because of the global pandemic"

What have these people been doing? If actually they have 2nd jobs on the front line of the health service, they get a pass. If they have just not bothered to continue the negotiations over zoom or Riot.im or whatever then these people should lose their jobs. I know it is harder to not meet face to face, but it is more difficult for everyone and everyone else is trying.

Well, you can only discuss so far as a negotiator before you have to check back with the politically elected to see if whatever you did was the right thing. And it is these politically elected that are absorbed by Corona, but primarily also want to wait for the effects of Corona before settling on a position. How the aftermath looks may after all have a huge impact on a trade deal. You have to know which of your industries need special rules after all. This is about trade talks with a third country after all. I would be expecting Britain to push these negotiations forward since they need the treaty more than the EU - or rather, not all EU members need/want it to the same degree so there is a natural delay there. But then again, we know how the British negotiated the first time around and it seemed rather laissez-faire...
 
Well, you can only discuss so far as a negotiator before you have to check back with the politically elected to see if whatever you did was the right thing. And it is these politically elected that are absorbed by Corona, but primarily also want to wait for the effects of Corona before settling on a position. How the aftermath looks may after all have a huge impact on a trade deal. You have to know which of your industries need special rules after all. This is about trade talks with a third country after all. I would be expecting Britain to push these negotiations forward since they need the treaty more than the EU - or rather, not all EU members need/want it to the same degree so there is a natural delay there. But then again, we know how the British negotiated the first time around and it seemed rather laissez-faire...

Covid could very well cause a landscape change in international trade, especially intercontinental trade, for essentials and the definition of essentials.
Is waiting on Brexit negotiations the right choice ?
Or as usual waiting combined with acting upon as such not 100% covering info ?

One thing seems for me certain. At least during and in the direct aftermatch many European governments will want to exercise the freedom to supply big state aid to important domestic sectors, which will include taking (partial to full) control cq ownership of private companies.
And from there I can imagine very well that the UK will prefer full freedom from the EU, both in scope as in the consensus seeking within the EU regarding state aid.
This could cause a higher damage to the UK... could... but from politics the wrapping up of the Brexit (1-15 yearseffect) with the far bigger effects of Covid (in the first 1-3 years) seems to me very convenient for the sitting UK government.
I guess as well that protectionist considerations (against the imbalance caused by the too high volumes of Chinese imports) will be all to happy to use this Covid crisis to change the landscape.
 
@Hrothbern

Generally agree, and in particular:

post: 15728746 said:
I can imagine very well that the UK will prefer full freedom from the EU, both in scope as in the consensus seeking within the EU regarding state aid.

The UK formally left the EU 31 January 2020 so it now has absolutely no say in deciding EU rules
regarding state aid, but they apply to the UK during the transition. The EU may fix the rules to
benefit its bigger players (countries and corporates) at the expense of others, particularly the UK.
An extension of transition would mean the UK would continue to be bound by foreign law, and unable to act.

The logic of democratic acountabilitity is that a membe state should either remain in the EU and
take an active part in fomulating policy, agreeing law, with representation in the EU Parliament
and EU court or simply leave the EU in its entirety. Signing treaties and setting up transition periods
to create a half way house doesn't work and precludes meaningful democratic accountability.
 
Signing treaties and setting up transition periods
to create a half way house doesn't work and precludes meaningful democratic accountability

I think the current situation goes beyond the "normal" democratic accountability... it taps deeper in deeper roots... it has imo more to do with A People seeking faith and needing faith in their leadership (almost regardless how good that leadership performs).

Everything contracts at such a moment to (societal) basics and their priorities (of mindset and material needs)
The degree to which this "contracting" happens an interplay between governments and their People.

After all... our current system of democracy is just one of the many ways to deal with that all. The big advantage of our current democracy is that it can handle much better balancing more abstract rights and handle more materialistic finetuning.

When this is all over, the traditional democratic accountability will be back and will take to some degree (but not really that much I think) the Covid phase in consideration.
We are good in compartmentalising.
 
It's almost as if leaving the EU was a bad idea in the first place.
 
How long will it take for BoJo... trying to sell at some moment in the future to Exit the Covid lock down... to come with the next BrExit... and "get it done" ?
 
Boris does not really need to do anything re the EU, he can just concentrate
on Covid 19 and let the last date for extending the transition period go quietly by.
 
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