innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,374
When Che was in Congo, he waited hours to met with the leader of the rebel (Che wasn't the leader there, he was just helping them). When the guy arrive, he was accompanied with 2 prostitutes. This is when Che realize that revolution was gonna fail: the man behind it was just as petty as the leaders of the country. Would he have succeed, the country wouldn't have change, a common trend in Africa.
True enough...
So your telling me that Cuba prior to Castro was "unusually tolerable"? Perhaps for the people living in Habana and working for rich american it was. Heck even in 1920's Germany, the Weimar republic didn't fall. Hitler's coup fail but the communist takeover of Bavaria didn't work either. Why? Because for all it's problem, post-WW1 Germany was not bad enough to make people want to die to change it. Yet, when a band of beared men arrive in Cuba, thousand of people quickly join their rank once they realize they had a chance to change their country.
Well, Miles Teg was right, Cuba under Batista wasn't that intolerable. Yes, he was a dictator, and he did kill some political enemies. And he was universally despised. Hell, if 18 men with even fewer guns between them managed to overthrow the government in 8 months, that says a lot about Batista's popularity...
However, Batista was not nearly as bad as a Trujillo, or even a Pinochet. Castro managed to organize opposition to him while still in law school, and so did many others. A Pinochet would have had them all shot in some stadium or drowned in the ocean.
And about the permanence of the cuban political regime beyond Fidel Castro's death: whatever people here may say about him, I think we can agree that he was possibly the most charismatic leader in Latin America during the whole 20th century. Cuba became communist because he pushed for that and people followed him. And while I'm sure that there are a million or so former cubans who hate him, in Florida, most of the population in Cuba genuinely likes him. He should have proposed a president elected through universal suffrage, and run for office, he'd have won easily and silenced many critics (their non-party attempt at representative democracy is too odd to be generally accepted elsewhere, as things stand now, as democracy). But there's no one capable of succeeding him in with that level of popularity. When he dies, the political future of Cuba will be open for discussion.
However, I don't expect the cubans to suddenly "embrace capitalism". There won't be a revolution, but there will be big changes. But, anyway, just the mere end of the US embargo on Cuba would have been enough to cause big changes, now or anytime in the past. And I suspect that Castro's death will be seized as an opportunity for dropping the embargo without losing face.