[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

[Timsup2nothin]

He'd get busted. The first thing news orgs do is verify that what they have is legit. They'd call whatever preparer signed the return and ask him to verify those are the returns he (because Trump no doubt hires men to do his taxes) signed. That person could lie, of course, but would they? Seems unlikely.

That person could just "neither confirm nor deny." Since in all likelihood they would have been well paid for both sets of returns that would be in their self interest.

 

[El_Machinae]

Which is why I've always wondered. What keeps a candidate from releasing a fake tax return? Up until Trump I always figured "basic integrity," but since he doesn't have any...

That would be some type of perjury or faking government records, which would then bring the immediate boom.

 

[metalhead]

That would look super shady, and only cause an avalanche of negative headlines and additional reporting.

Trump is paying for this more than I thought he would. The drumbeat is constant, and the debates are helping it along. He should have learned from his opponent - disclose early and explain it away. Refusing to disclose information that people expect access to makes you look guilty and allows people to assume the worst. In this case, the refusal to release is utterly incomprehensible unless the worst is actually true.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Why go through all that when you can just not release them?

 

[Sommerswerd]

@ metalhead - The worst is true. Trump has no upside to releasing his tax return. Its like the difference between suspecting the kid you've been raising isn't yours and actually seeing the DNA results and hearing the words "You ARE NOT the father!" Once Trump releases his return, all the fence riders who are choosing to give him the benefit of the doubt will have it thrown in their face and be forced to decide between forgiving him or leaving him. If they truly love him, they will stay, and be mocked as blind loyalists/enablers. Some supporters won't be able to bear that, but as long as they have some plausible deniability, they can hang in there. Releasing the return only serves to torch the thin veil of plausible deniability.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That would be some type of perjury or faking government records, which would then bring the immediate boom.

Tax returns aren't "government records" unless it is the official copy that was filed with the IRS, and no one ever sees that except them. The copy being released comes from personal records. There are no laws governing personal records.

 

[metalhead]

People aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt. National poll today has Hillary +9 in the 4 way, Trump at 40 in the H2H. Trump won't lose any of that 40 no matter what, but he will lose the election bigly AND big league if/when they are the only ones who come out to vote for him.

We already know he hasn't donated to charity in the last several years. We already know that he only had around $60 million in liquid assets, because that's about the total amount he pumped into his campaign. We already know he pays no federal income tax. The only missing piece is that he has meager assets and income - which it's pretty safe to assume is also true.

The reason he hasn't released them, and will never release them, has nothing to do with the election. Which is troubling. It's his brand - if proof comes out of the intricate shell game his lawyers have been playing to keep up the facade that he is a wealthy, successful businessman, his brand becomes worthless. All those deals to license his name probably go away. His wife and kids' only reason for tolerating his presence disappears and he dies a lonely old national joke.

 

[SupremacyKing2]

The reason he hasn't released them, and will never release them, has nothing to do with the election. Which is troubling. It's his brand - if proof comes out of the intricate shell game his lawyers have been playing to keep up the facade that he is a wealthy, successful businessman, his brand becomes worthless. All those deals to license his name probably go away. His wife and kids' only reason for tolerating his presence disappears and he dies a lonely old national joke.

This. I believe that this scenario is the only thing that truly scares Trump. I don't think it would really bother him to lose the election. He would just leverage the loss to start his own news network or something and make money from it. It's what he does best. But if he loses his brand, it's game over.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

This. I believe that this scenario is the only thing that truly scares Trump. I don't think it would really bother him to lose the election. He would just leverage the loss to start his own news network or something and make money from it. It's what he does best. But if he loses his brand, it's game over.

I wonder how much damage a really poor campaign followed by a blowout loss will do?

 

[Gori the Grey]

^^ and ^^^. Lawrence O'Donnell has been particularly good on this. In the NYT-released tax form from 1995, what he lit into was not the billion dollar loss that could be spread over 18 years, but that the return shows an income of only 3 million. A lot for any of us, of course, but you could get that with interest from 50 million. A far cry from the billionaire that Trump was calling himself already at that point.

70-odd % of voters think he should release his tax records, according to one poll, including a majority even of Republicans. I don't know the extent to which that "should" will pull away votes. Doesn't seem to me to be the kind of thing that would be a deal-breaker for anyone otherwise willing to support Trump.

and ^. I hope lots. I also hope all the press scrutiny will bring DoJs, IRSs, AGs out after all of Trump's financial shenanigans, so that running will be a major financial loss for him, even above and beyond damage to his brand.

 

[Bootstoots]

Would he lose his brand, if everyone knew it was a giant shell game? It's possible there could be legal action if there's anything actually illegal, and it's possible that his current businesses will take a nose-dive and go bankrupt again. But if he's looking to move into the right-wing media business, keep having rallies as the head of a right-wing populist movement, or anything like that, it's not clear that exposing his awful business practices and tax avoidance would do anything to dissuade the 25% or so of the country that are currently fanatical Trump supporters. Even a landslide defeat wouldn't likely discourage them based on what we've seen so far about their regard for facts. And really, based on his previous polling lows, he's unlikely to lose by more than 10 PV percentage points or get fewer than the 163 EVs he gets under the scenario where Georgia and Arizona turn blue. A serious loss like that might even strengthen the narrative of a rigged system and a country lost to minorities and white liberals.

His businesses may tank, and he may lose by a fairly wide margin, but I think he's found a new calling. More than anything, he likes being surrounded by admiring fans at rallies. I bet he keeps holding rallies after his defeat.

 

[Lohrenswald]

We already know he hasn't donated to charity in the last several years. We already know that he only had around $60 million in liquid assets, because that's about the total amount he pumped into his campaign. We already know he pays no federal income tax. The only missing piece is that he has meager assets and income - which it's pretty safe to assume is also true.

How meager, do you mean?

I find the thought that Trump isn't as rich as he seems kinda interesting, but wouldn't it require a lot of wealth to hold up a facade of a lot of wealth?

Also, what exactly is Trump's business? Is it really that he doesn't own any of the buildings, but only gets paid to let people use his name on things?

 

[zxcvbob]

Also, what exactly is Trump's business? Is it really that he doesn't own any of the buildings, but only gets paid to let people use his name on things?

I think of him as an old-fashioned robber baron. He gambles using other people's money, and structures his businesses so that the shareholders assume all the risk but he assumes most of the profits when one pays off. I would never invest in one of his companies.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

How meager, do you mean?

I find the thought that Trump isn't as rich as he seems kinda interesting, but wouldn't it require a lot of wealth to hold up a facade of a lot of wealth?

Also, what exactly is Trump's business? Is it really that he doesn't own any of the buildings, but only gets paid to let people use his name on things?

Meager as compared to his claims. It's a relative thing. There's a TV show called Shark Tank where entrepreneurs appeal for funding and partnership to a panel of rich businesspeople. One of the "sharks" is Mark Cuban and there is a lot of good natured ribbing and "competition" between the sharks, but at the end of the day all the sharks know that Cuban could just buy all the proposals and his fellow sharks if he had the inclination. Trump wants to be Cuban, not just one of the rest snapping for scraps, but he isn't.

 

[Zkribbler]

Tax returns aren't "government records" unless it is the official copy that was filed with the IRS, and no one ever sees that except them. The copy being released comes from personal records. There are no laws governing personal records.

Even if they are signed under penalty of perjury?

 

[metalhead]

His wealth is almost exclusively tied up in properties he "owns." Estimates of his net worth are based on whatever information Forbes can cobble together on how much of various things like Trump Tower he actually owns. But even Trump Tower, he doesn't actually own most of it, because it's largely condo units that were sold decades ago.

His income comes from renting office and commercial space in his buildings, and revenue from his various golf courses. The former again depends on what exactly he "owns." The latter is probably not much; golf courses have become largely unprofitable.

He also gets income from licensing his name and various media deals, which these days likely accounts for most of his income. A lot of times a building with the Trump name is simply paying for the name and Trump doesn't own any of it.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Even if they are signed under penalty of perjury?

Interesting question. The declaration that you are signing about "true and correct" is clearly an affirmation specifically directed towards the IRS as the contracting agency. Is there anything legally binding about such an affirmation if it is never submitted to the contracting agency?

Hypothetically, people who are self employed and applying for credit, since they don't have a paycheck stub, are often asked for tax returns as income verification. Also hypothetically, finance managers at car dealerships often serve as the bank's intermediary with the person applying for a car loan. Even more hypothetically, there may have been a time in the past where a finance manager at a car dealership kept a supply of blank tax forms in my desk drawer just for such occasions. In that hypothetical case the legally binding signature was the signature on the sales contract, which did specify that the customer provide any supporting documentation and that such documentation be true and correct. I don't think the affirmation statement on the IRS specific form would have been considered legally binding otherwise in a transaction between a consumer and a bank.

 

[El_Machinae]

Tax returns aren't "government records" unless it is the official copy that was filed with the IRS, and no one ever sees that except them. The copy being released comes from personal records. There are no laws governing personal records.

They are if they're notorized

 

[Sommerswerd]

wouldn't it require a lot of wealth to hold up a facade of a lot of wealth?

Nah... Ever see a rap video? Those guys look like billionaires in the video... they're not.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

They are if they're notorized

Agreed. If a candidate "releases their tax returns" are they typically notarized copies?