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[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.
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Gori the Grey
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I'm most fundamentally with those who say the VP debate won't have any impact on the race.
That said, I seem to be in the minority (even of MSNBC commentators, who you'd think would be predisposed to favor Dems, but who almost unanimously gave the debate to Pence) in thinking Kaine won the debate. Yes, he was annoyingly interruptive. But, in part through that, he set the terms of the debate; he was the aggressor. His terms were "Trump is so bad even his own VP can't defend the stuff he says and does." He hammered that.
And most importantly, it worked defensively. Pence's attempts to get anything going on Hillary's chief weaknesses (server and foundation) puttered out, never got any traction.
That said, I seem to be in the minority (even of MSNBC commentators, who you'd think would be predisposed to favor Dems, but who almost unanimously gave the debate to Pence) in thinking Kaine won the debate. Yes, he was annoyingly interruptive. But, in part through that, he set the terms of the debate; he was the aggressor. His terms were "Trump is so bad even his own VP can't defend the stuff he says and does." He hammered that.
And most importantly, it worked defensively. Pence's attempts to get anything going on Hillary's chief weaknesses (server and foundation) puttered out, never got any traction.
BirraImperial
Pura Vida!
So how important are these VP depates? I think they probably don't have such an impact since most people don't care about who the VP is, and care more about the Presidential Candidate...
Timsup2nothin
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I think the debate has to be analyzed as strategy, since short of one of them bursting into tears and saying their candidate has had them drugged all this time the VP debate is meaningless in itself.
So, strategy.
Pence produced nothing useful, that I could see. He did a couple of "I know Trump, and God is on Trump's side" soliloquies to firm up the deep conservative support, but I think most people would agree that the evangelicals are going to vote Republican at the end of the day anyway, if they show up. I can't see "well, what a nice Christian the VP candidate is" getting them excited enough to drive turnout. I didn't catch any mention of the Supreme Court, which is really the only thing Trump has in his favor on that front.
Kaine, on the other hand, for all of his bumbling, produced numerous ad worthy exchanges. That will almost certainly be useful to the campaign. I think he also laid an extremely difficult minefield for Trump. There are five days until the next Clinton Trump face off. That debate will feature the unanswered questions from this one, and those are going to be extremely uncomfortable for Trump. Every item on Kaine's "you didn't defend..." list is going to be blasted at the media constantly for the next five days, and then Trump will have to defend:
That he did say a nuclear arms race in the far east featuring Japan and South Korea was a good idea.
That the Trump Organization might have significant ties to Russian oligarchs, and the only way to avoid defending that is to prove it doesn't.
That despite all his deportation bluster Trump has always meant "eventually" when he said "they all gotta go and they are GONE, so fast your head will spin."
That he does have a strange admiration for dictators around the world.
More that I can't think of at the moment.
The questions will take the form "Mike Pence denied this, but we've checked and you actually did say..." so the usual lying bluster is going to be really hard to pull off.
End of the day, Pence "won" in the moment, but it's one of those "the operation was successful other than the patient dying on the table" moments. Kaine played his role in the overarching strategy far more effectively. The Trump campaign not seeming to actually have any strategy, overarching or otherwise, is probably responsible for that.
So, strategy.
Pence produced nothing useful, that I could see. He did a couple of "I know Trump, and God is on Trump's side" soliloquies to firm up the deep conservative support, but I think most people would agree that the evangelicals are going to vote Republican at the end of the day anyway, if they show up. I can't see "well, what a nice Christian the VP candidate is" getting them excited enough to drive turnout. I didn't catch any mention of the Supreme Court, which is really the only thing Trump has in his favor on that front.
Kaine, on the other hand, for all of his bumbling, produced numerous ad worthy exchanges. That will almost certainly be useful to the campaign. I think he also laid an extremely difficult minefield for Trump. There are five days until the next Clinton Trump face off. That debate will feature the unanswered questions from this one, and those are going to be extremely uncomfortable for Trump. Every item on Kaine's "you didn't defend..." list is going to be blasted at the media constantly for the next five days, and then Trump will have to defend:
That he did say a nuclear arms race in the far east featuring Japan and South Korea was a good idea.
That the Trump Organization might have significant ties to Russian oligarchs, and the only way to avoid defending that is to prove it doesn't.
That despite all his deportation bluster Trump has always meant "eventually" when he said "they all gotta go and they are GONE, so fast your head will spin."
That he does have a strange admiration for dictators around the world.
More that I can't think of at the moment.
The questions will take the form "Mike Pence denied this, but we've checked and you actually did say..." so the usual lying bluster is going to be really hard to pull off.
End of the day, Pence "won" in the moment, but it's one of those "the operation was successful other than the patient dying on the table" moments. Kaine played his role in the overarching strategy far more effectively. The Trump campaign not seeming to actually have any strategy, overarching or otherwise, is probably responsible for that.
zxcvbob
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Most people watching them were viewing through their own political filter, and see what they wanted to see. (myself included) I doubt there are any real "undecided"s this year, only people disgusted with who they've decided to vote for and won't admit it. (good thing we have a secret ballot)
Zero impact, I imagine - unless one of the VP candidates, demonstrates themselves to be hopelessly incompetent for the job they're seeking.
Example: Sarah Palin destroyed John McCain's campaign whenever she opened her mouth. She famously had no idea what the Bush Doctrine was about when asked about her position on it.
Gori the Grey
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And we're reserving that for the presidential debates this year!
UK political leaders have been doing that for years. Maybe we're just more boring that way.
538 talked a bit about this is their latest podcast, and basically said that there's no evidence whatsoever that they move the polls at all. Even the more memorable VP debates, like Biden-Palin, or Quayle-Bentsen, had absolutely no effect on the polls.
Which is probably a good thing for the Democrats in this case. I didn't see all that much of the debate, but the bits I did see didn't leave me very impressed with Kaine. I agree that his brief wasn't to win the debate, so much as to provide material that could be used in ads, but he just didn't seem particularly effective at playing the interrupting/attack role against a calm and composed Pence. Of course, what Pence was saying was nonsense, but it was much in the same way that what Romney was saying was nonsense when he beat Obama in the first debate in 2012.
metalhead
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I agree with Gori, Pence's attacks looked weak. Kaine did a much better job explaining why the things Trump says and his failure to release his tax returns are problematic. He also defended the top of the ticket, which Pence didn't do even when challenged to. There is fodder for web videos about Trump being indefensible even by his running mate, but I think that message has been delivered far more effectively by Trump himself.
But in the end it won't matter. Any effect will be overshadowed by Sunday's debate. All you have to accomplish in a VP debate is look like the country won't fall apart of you're called to serve. Both men passed the test.
But in the end it won't matter. Any effect will be overshadowed by Sunday's debate. All you have to accomplish in a VP debate is look like the country won't fall apart of you're called to serve. Both men passed the test.
Wrong. I've got the best answers for questions and you're bad at checking.
Tim alluded to something that Kaine did very well... he kept on the attack so that Pence never really had any breathing room to talk about emails, Benghazi, or the Clinton Foundation. Every attack Pence tried was met with an interruption, a quick but detailed explanation of why he was wrong... followed by a barrage of "lets get back to the last question that you didn't answer... Trump said this, Trump said that, can you defend it? Will you defend it? I can't believe you would even try to defend it."
One could even say that Trump is the personification of the horror that partisanship has become.
SupremacyKing2
Deity
Did anyone notice early in the debate, when Pence promised a couple times that Trump would release his tax returns? As far as I know, Trump's position continues to be that he won't because of the audit. I don't think he has made any such promise. It seemed like Pence might have stepped out of bounds by making a promise for Trump that Trump himself might not be comfortable with.
metalhead
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The line has always been that Trump will release his taxes after the audit is complete. Which is total BS. It's just a way to stall until the election is over.
The IRS ought to just call off the audit and have the director come out and hold a press conference a la James Comey, explaining that the audit is finished and that the tax returns will not be revisited under any circumstances.
The IRS ought to just call off the audit and have the director come out and hold a press conference a la James Comey, explaining that the audit is finished and that the tax returns will not be revisited under any circumstances.
Gori the Grey
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And that's on the assumption that there even is an audit going on. Trump hasn't so much as produced the letter indicating that an audit is occurring. We just have his word for it. And if you challenge his spokesperson about that:
"What, are you calling him a liar?"
Also, well, ok, there's an audit going on. How 'bout your 2014 returns, then? Or 2013? Or 2012? Oh, those are all under audit as well? Wow!
"What, are you calling him a liar?"
Also, well, ok, there's an audit going on. How 'bout your 2014 returns, then? Or 2013? Or 2012? Oh, those are all under audit as well? Wow!
SupremacyKing2
Deity
Oh I agree it is BS. I just think that Pence's statement was a bit of a misstep because it draws attention again to how Trump should release his tax returns.
Timsup2nothin
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I too would like to see this, but I think the IRS is specifically restrained in regards to the privacy issue. They cannot confirm audit status, or much of anything else in regards to a taxpayer.
Which is why I've always wondered. What keeps a candidate from releasing a fake tax return? Up until Trump I always figured "basic integrity," but since he doesn't have any...
The one powerful weapon that Pence has at his disposal, and he used it as a constant go-to in the debate to great effect, is that when you are a Trump surrogate, you have to just let any semblance of adherence to truth or the facts go... just let it go. You don't have to be consistent with Trump. You can literally just say whatever you want, and present it as if it is Trump's position. You really have to do that, frankly... there is no other choice. You have to lie, non-stop. You have to tell bald-faced, ostentatious, bold, confident lies and tell them with smug conviction as if they are obvious truths that would be silly to dispute. Yes you will be eviscerated by fact checkers, but whateves... that's the job. Pence and Conway seem to have made a sort of peace with that that makes them super effective advocates for Trump. I bet a lot of Republicans were watching last night wishing Pence was the candidate. He really made a lemon meringue pie out of some really rancid lemons and a few slices of moldy bread.
metalhead
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He'd get busted. The first thing news orgs do is verify that what they have is legit. They'd call whatever preparer signed the return and ask him to verify those are the returns he (because Trump no doubt hires men to do his taxes) signed. That person could lie, of course, but would they? Seems unlikely.
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