Corona Virus: Who's fault and how can we hold it accountable?

[H4run]

We might be talking about two different things. As of January 25th, don't you think that all national leaders should have been aware of the threat to their Nations?

China only lock down Wuhan in 23 January yet they are not closing international flight from China to other countries. There is a different between "locking down Wuhan" and "warning other nation" unless you want to stretch the definition until both are a synonym to each other. China push the WHO to encouraged open border with China as oppose to close down the border to anticipate the spread of the virus to other nation, as late as February WHO still against closing border with China arguing that it can exacerbated the situation.

What can you concluded behind all of these fact? China just care to lock down Wuhan for their own good, while they encouraged the open border by keep referencing themselves behind WHO's that is because they don't care if the virus will spread globally, they don't care about other nation.

You can re-read Aelf beautiful chart here:

Then make a deduction on what the heck is happening.

edit: Fixing my English to make it slightly understandable.

 

[H4run]

Where in your timeline is there any indication that they had information that would have inclined them to declare it any sooner?

Of course Dr. Weilang already warned it.

Ok, put a side Dr Weilang, even Taiwan already warn WHO in December regarding the Virus however the WHO just shrug it off because they are under pressure and influenced of the CCP. Now if Taiwan can see it from across the ocean why not the Chinese? Unless they want to suppressed the information of course.

Health officials in Taipei said they alerted the WHO at the end of December about the risk of human-to-human transmission of the new virus but said its concerns were not passed on to other countries.

Source

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Of course Dr. Weilang already warned it.

Ok, put a side Dr Weilang, even Taiwan already warn WHO in December regarding the Virus however the WHO just shrug it off because they are under pressure and influenced of the CCP. Now if Taiwan can see it from across the ocean why not the Chinese? Unless they want to suppressed the information of course.



Source

Paywalled, but just based on the title "warned of risk" isn't all that useful. If we declare a global health emergence every time someone says "well, there's a risk this could lead to a pandemic" we effectively say "what we need to do is establish a constant state of conduct that accounts for the fact that there is always going to be someone with a virus that we haven't quite accounted for yet."

I'm all for sweating the Chinese about whether they were claiming "we aren't sure yet" after they really were sure.

I'm all for sweating them really hard if they in fact did that.

I'm not for sweating them really hard on the basis of "well, looking back on it you should have known."

I'm also not forgetting that when they did say "oh crap, here it comes" the initial response in the US was "you dirty Chinese cannot hold our people prisoner based on some whackadoodle theory about a virus." It's only long after the cataclysm that people started saying "hey you should have told us about this virus sooner, even if you weren't totally sure."

 

[Hrothbern]

Of course Dr. Weilang already warned it.

Ok, put a side Dr Weilang, even Taiwan already warn WHO in December regarding the Virus however the WHO just shrug it off because they are under pressure and influenced of the CCP. Now if Taiwan can see it from across the ocean why not the Chinese? Unless they want to suppressed the information of course.



Source

I think the WHO is nice as pooling centre for health knowledge especially for smaller and not rich countries who are not able to support a wide scope of university hospitals doing R&D.
It should also maintain standards to make it easier for such countries to aim for programmatic improvements.

For bigger, richer countries it should be more of a sharing best practices and knowledge pool.

In general: add to the WHO knowledge that you have and take what you need.

The WHO is more like the FAO and was never designed, like for example to much more degree a WTO, to be able to stand on its feet between geopolitical forces.
It is also not really able to stand on its feet between Big Pharma.

Bigger, richer countries need their own entities for that.

The rest can shop policies between the WHO or big "friends".
In emergencies like now, with lots going on behind the curtains, you are simply screwed (unless you are like a kancil )

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'm pretty sure epoch times should never ever be used as a source of reliable information especially pertaining to anything not reactionary conservative in nature. Seriously.

Right.

China holds a lot of water here, the question is what to do about it beyond cloudy comments about diplomatic consequences and economic repercussions. Specificity matters here.

The easiest scapegoat is of course the World Health Organization.
One can point to their constant advice about no travel restrictions and then read this.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...wn-led-dramatic-cut-global-spread-coronavirus

China’s drastic decision to lock down the central city of Wuhan has cut the number of coronavirus cases
exported from the country to other parts of the world by more than 75 per cent, according to a study by a team of international scientists.
The restrictions also dramatically curbed the number of domestic infections, another team found.

Wuhan, which has been in an unprecedented lockdown since January 23, has recorded zero new infections over the past few days and has only 982 active cases.
The city will formally lift all of its travel restrictions next week.
The researchers’ conclusions were reported in two papers published in Science magazine, looking at the impact of the travel ban and other contingency measures imposed in Wuhan, where the virus was first detected.

W.H.O. get a lot of funding from the U.S. and Trump is itching for anyone to blame but himself.


I really can't point to many specific diplomatic or economic consequences for China.
Right now they have a stranglehold on too many vital industries to be pressed too hard.

I think over 50% of the U.S. in a poll supported Trump calling Covid-19 the "Chinese virus" even though it ought to be called "Wuhan Coronavirus" at most, so that will have the most long-range consequences if it takes hold.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-poll-donald-trump-chinese-virus/

I DO know China now has the undivided attention of the U.S. elite whenever they are not thinking about the domestic situation.
That hasn't happened since 9/11.
Once a broad consensus takes root against governments like Russia or Iran, it tends to last for an unreasonably long time.
Hong Kong and the 1 million muslims in the re-education camps weren't helping.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...turning-americans-both-parties-against-china/

Whatever true consequences that follow will be shaped mostly by the November election.
Democrats are not confrontational until they get an international consensus, so any U.S. reactions would be much more mild with Biden.

 

[El_Machinae]

Yeah, we're talking about different things. There's a difference for when China ceases to be responsible for misinformation and when other national leaders are responsible for having some wisdom on their own part.

March 6th, the Trump Administration was telling the American people that the covid-19 threat was contained. Sure, it's wrong because of Chinese behaviour in mid January. But it's also wrong becausr of reasons internal to the administration itself

 

[H4run]

Paywalled, but just based on the title "warned of risk" isn't all that useful.

My bad Tim, let me get part of it for you, I feel guilty if I share whole of it because of the copyright.

Taiwan has accused the World Health Organization of failing to communicate an early warning about transmission of the coronavirus between humans, slowing the global response to the pandemic. Health officials in Taipei said they alerted the WHO at the end of December about the risk of human-to-human transmission of the new virus but said its concerns were not passed on to other countries. Taiwan is excluded from the WHO because China, which claims it as part of its territory, demands that third countries and international bodies do not treat it in any way that resembles how independent states are treated. The WHO’s relationship with China has been criticised in the past, with some accusing the organisation of overly praising Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak despite allegations local officials had initially covered it up. Taiwan said its doctors had heard from mainland colleagues that medical staff were getting ill — a sign of human-to-human transmission. Taipei officials said they reported this to both International Health Regulations (IHR), a WHO framework for exchange of epidemic prevention and response data between 196 countries, and Chinese health authorities on December 31. Taiwanese government officials told the Financial Times the warning was not shared with other countries. “While the IHR’s internal website provides a platform for all countries to share information on the epidemic and their response, none of the information shared by our country’s [Centers for Disease Control] is being put up there,” said Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan’s vice-president.......

I'm all for sweating the Chinese about whether they were claiming "we aren't sure yet" after they really were sure.

I'm all for sweating them really hard if they in fact did that.

I'm not for sweating them really hard on the basis of "well, looking back on it you should have known."

Fair argument Tim, of course I also disagree with the last scenario, but from their exaggerated reaction over Dr Wailang warning; how the WHO-the follower of Chinese narration of the situation, just shrug off Taiwan warning about the risk that can be happened in China; they keep the international's border open while shutting down Wuhan at the same time, that's mean they don't give a rat about us.

Many other leader may have fault, but as a nation who host the origin of the virus there are responsibility and transparency that they should have taken, and they did none of that Tim.

 

[Gorbles]

Following on from El's comment, here is a good Twitter thread illustrating professional medical opinion in the States and their reactions to the lack of action, or arguably mistaken action taken, to curtail the spread of the virus. There's an article in the first Tweet, too.

 

[H4run]

unless you are like a kancil

I demand an explanation from you about this later You must know A LOT about us to be able to say this, even my wife who fluent in Indonesian language doesn't know what Kancil is, it is embedded in our culture and folklore.

 

[Hrothbern]

I demand an explanation from you about this later You must know A LOT about us to be able to say this, even my wife who fluent in Indonesian language doesn't know what Kancil is, it is embedded in our culture and folklore.

As a little kid I already loved the fables of Sang Kancil (we say in Dutch Kantjil and for others here a mouse-deer) together with Loekie the squirrel and the medieval fable Van den Vos Reynaerde (the smart fox outwitting the stupid arrogant Lion)
I identified very much with them as that little kid living between too many adults hindering my freedom)

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Fair argument Tim, of course I also disagree with the last scenario, but from their exaggerated reaction over Dr Wailang warning; how the WHO-the follower of Chinese narration of the situation, just shrug off Taiwan warning about the risk that can be happened in China; they keep the international's border open while shutting down Wuhan at the same time, that's mean they don't give a rat about us.

Many other leader may have fault, but as a nation who host the origin of the virus there are responsibility and transparency that they should have taken, and they did none of that Tim.

Maybe they expected locking down Wuhan to work? I mean, that's what they were doing to protect the rest of China, so clearly they had some expectation that it would work. And again, "closing the international border" sounds like it would have been a really good thing to have done earlier, but look at what the result was when they started limiting travel. It wasn't "oh, thank you guys for taking prompt action." It was more like "you better be able to prove, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that this isn't some trick to justify imprisoning our citizens in your country." I don't know about where you are, but the tenor of the first breaking news on this thing in the US was more "imprisoned in China" and less "hey there's a virus."

 

[H4run]

As a little kid I already loved the fables of Sang Kancil (we say in Dutch Kantjil and for others here a mouse-deer) together with Loekie the squirrel and the medieval fable Van den Vos Reynaerde (the smart fox outwitting the stupid arrogant Lion)
I identified very much with them as that little kid living between too many adults hindering my freedom)

That's interesting we grow with the same folklore when we were child despite our different age and country, I borrow it when I was in elementary at school library. I never know the story also popular in the Dutch, this is a good information to share after Covid during my coffee time with friends

 

[H4run]

Maybe they expected locking down Wuhan to work? I mean, that's what they were doing to protect the rest of China, so clearly they had some expectation that it would work. And again, "closing the international border" sounds like it would have been a really good thing to have done earlier, but look at what the result was when they started limiting travel. It wasn't "oh, thank you guys for taking prompt action." It was more like "you better be able to prove, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that this isn't some trick to justify imprisoning our citizens in your country." I don't know about where you are, but the tenor of the first breaking news on this thing in the US was more "imprisoned in China" and less "hey there's a virus."

I agree with you Tim, China's fault doesn't vis a vis abolished US faulty reaction and vice versa. I'm with you about that, you may put that aside.

The rule of epidemic is that people cannot enter or go out from the infected region at the announcement or acknowledgement time, but this mean prior to the announcement people already going in and outside of Wuhan then went to all over China, under this common sense, unless they don't want the epidemic went global they should closed the international border. This one fact is stand tall Tim, beside this there are also other fact that China knowingly down-played the severeness of the epidemic through extremely blatant data faking, this is not coming out from a good intention and clearly break an international law/article regarding pandemic scenario, I haven't search that yet but it must be there, because it's just common sense.

 

[tetley]

If the virus naturally mutated in China, then the China government's response is no less a reaction to it than the U.S.'s. The only way I see singling out China is if only China seriously and deliberately deflated their infection and death-rate numbers. And even the "deliberately" part is cast in doubt, since China was the first to face it. They never had the benefit of other countries to look to, to see what worked and what didn't. The U.S. has no such excuse: they had China and South Korea to look to all along.

 

[aelf]

Cool timeline, but doesn't support this theory. The declared a global health emergency on January 30th. Where in your timeline is there any indication that they had information that would have inclined them to declare it any sooner? In hindsight it turns out that the first time China had a case of what could have been pneumonia they should have just shot every person who had been in contact with that person, and every person that they had been in contact with in turn, but no one wants to see anyone make a habit of that kind of response. It looks like by the time anyone could confirm a contagion it had already escaped China anyway, but January 30th might very well be the soonest that a GHE could have been justified.

Basically, this:

Fair argument Tim, of course I also disagree with the last scenario, but from their exaggerated reaction over Dr Wailang warning; how the WHO-the follower of Chinese narration of the situation, just shrug off Taiwan warning about the risk that can be happened in China

The timeline I posted does indicate that WHO was basing its assessments on what China was reporting, effectively taking what China said at face value.

I'm not saying that the WHO was deliberately obscuring the truth for China's sake, but that it should have been much more cautious, given China's political propensity to hide information. And the fact that the WHO wasn't raises questions.

The only way I see singling out China is if only China seriously and deliberately deflated their infection and death-rate numbers.

Yes. It has the ability, the incentive and the propensity to do such a thing. The fact that the local government in Hubei initially tried to cover up the seriousness of the outbreak ahead of a party meeting doesn't inspire confidence either.

 

[tetley]

Yes. It has the ability, the incentive and the propensity to do such a thing. The fact that the local government in Hubei initially tried to cover up the seriousness of the outbreak ahead of a party meeting doesn't inspire confidence either.

But does that justify *singling out* China? The U.S., Russia and Israel not only have the ability, incentive and propensity to do the same thing, but they have the ability to do bioengineering research and plant the virus, with plausible deniability.

 

[aelf]

That's some false equivalence there. The possibility that China hid information about the outbreak in the first few months is hardly in the same league as the US, Russia or Israel planting the virus in China.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I agree with you Tim, China's fault doesn't vis a vis abolished US faulty reaction and vice versa. I'm with you about that, you may put that aside.

The rule of epidemic is that people cannot enter or go out from the infected region at the announcement or acknowledgement time, but this mean prior to the announcement people already going in and outside of Wuhan then went to all over China, under this common sense, unless they don't want the epidemic went global they should closed the international border. This one fact is stand tall Tim, beside this there are also other fact that China knowingly down-played the severeness of the epidemic through extremely blatant data faking, this is not coming out from a good intention and clearly break an international law/article regarding pandemic scenario, I haven't search that yet but it must be there, because it's just common sense.

People had already been in and out of Wuhan and gone all over the world, probably. I think the human race would be wise to start asking "just because we have the ability to treat the entire world like it's our back yard, does that mean that we should?" I mean, I love Warpus' travel threads, and I laugh at our super entitled posters who are looking at the current situation as the worst thing evah because they had to cancel their exotic vacation plan...but seriously we would all be better off if the only people taking trips to China had been people who really needed to do something they had to do in China.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The timeline I posted does indicate that WHO was basing its assessments on what China was reporting, effectively taking what China said at face value.

I'm not saying that the WHO was deliberately obscuring the truth for China's sake, but that it should have been much more cautious, given China's political propensity to hide information. And the fact that the WHO wasn't raises questions.

I could look at their charter to make sure, but I feel pretty comfortable saying that the WHO is not empowered as an investigative body.

 

[H4run]

But does that justify *singling out* China? The U.S., Russia and Israel not only have the ability, incentive and propensity to do the same thing, but they have the ability to do bioengineering research and plant the virus, with plausible deniability.

Are you referring that America, Israel or Russia have the possibility to plant the virus in China? I maybe misread this because of my English may betrayed my understanding, but am I understand this right?

People had already been in and out of Wuhan and gone all over the world, probably. I think the human race would be wise to start asking "just because we have the ability to treat the entire world like it's our back yard, does that mean that we should?" I mean, I love Warpus' travel threads, and I laugh at our super entitled posters who are looking at the current situation as the worst thing evah because they had to cancel their exotic vacation plan...but seriously we would all be better off if the only people taking trips to China had been people who really needed to do something they had to do in China.

Well if you are talking before the Pandemic, no one consider such risk before that. However after the symptom it is quite clear that containment should come directly as it surfaced/known, and China have been recorded to dismiss and down-play such possibility, China has been recorded to intimidated and punished the Whistle-Blower Doctor, there is a reason why we remember the Doctor as whistle-blower, a very good reason also.

For me not recognizing Chinese's dismissal regarding Wailang's report, it's the same with not honoring his sacrifices after been silenced by his government, and that is also the same with supporting Chinese oppression against its people and (other) nation. CCP are not representation of Chinese people, they are government structure that ruling over its people, bashing its corruption is the same with bashing any corrupted government, be that my government or Trump administration. People should remember that.