Zardnaar
Deity
Your natural immunity idea not pan out?
-
Civilization 7 has been announced. For more info please check the forum here .
Coronavirus 12: Don't Abandon Hope
- Thread starter Aiken_Drumn
- Start date
- Status
Your natural immunity idea not pan out?
There are lots of vaccinated, anti vaxxers who will personally protect themselves, while encouraging others to throw themselves into the buzz saw. In a lot of ways, it's worse morally to know for a fact the reality and preach against it, then just being a moron true believer who lives their unreality. Fox News is all vaccinated. Jimmy Dore is vaccinated. Most anti vaxxer media personalities are vaccinated. The line where they actually seem to get it and die, are a bunch of regional evangelical radio hosts and state representatives. Not exactly the movers and shakers of the movement, just the slightly higher foot troops.
EnglishEdward
Deity
The thing is the virus keeps mutating. Hopefully it will become more benign over time.
Otherwise I doubt that taking a booster every three months for the next decade will work out well.
Otherwise I doubt that taking a booster every three months for the next decade will work out well.
Berzerker
Deity
Benadryl and milk
well, not quite that simple... but they're working on a concoction using ingredients from both as a treatment
well, not quite that simple... but they're working on a concoction using ingredients from both as a treatment
thetrooper
Misanthrope
- Joined
- May 24, 2004
- Messages
- 8,865
Who are they?
Some possible good news (when soundly confirmed) on omicron:
It could very well be that the fast spreading of omicron is (also or mainly) coming from a shorter time before you get infectious to other people.
To explain that here below a picture showing the infection over time in a person and viral shedding to others following a roughly similar shape.
(the graph from an old article, but chosen for simplicity of the graph)
For sake of simplicity we use the situation where no (effective) contact tracing and/or self isolation etc is happening.
If we follow the logic that the total amount of other people infected, the R, is proportional to the surface below the curve... then it does not matter for the R when that whole curve is pushed to the left, the peak starting earlier, as long as the total surface stays the same.
=> the strain with the faster, the earlier peak, will spread faster
Well... just a thought after someone of the modellingt team of the NL RIVM mentioning he was playing around with his model to see what it would give on analysing backward to perhaps forecast.
But also:
=> general social distancing actions or being vaccinated reducing R with 50% will apply to both curves the same way.
If the fast spreading of omicron is coming mainly from a shifted earlier peak, the structural steady state actions to keep R below 1 (from vaccinations, natural immunities, social distancing) do not need to be stronger than for delta.
But when structural R is above 1 you do need to react faster with a hammer to prevent overwhelming your health care
It could very well be that the fast spreading of omicron is (also or mainly) coming from a shorter time before you get infectious to other people.
To explain that here below a picture showing the infection over time in a person and viral shedding to others following a roughly similar shape.
(the graph from an old article, but chosen for simplicity of the graph)
For sake of simplicity we use the situation where no (effective) contact tracing and/or self isolation etc is happening.
If we follow the logic that the total amount of other people infected, the R, is proportional to the surface below the curve... then it does not matter for the R when that whole curve is pushed to the left, the peak starting earlier, as long as the total surface stays the same.
=> the strain with the faster, the earlier peak, will spread faster
Well... just a thought after someone of the modellingt team of the NL RIVM mentioning he was playing around with his model to see what it would give on analysing backward to perhaps forecast.
But also:
=> general social distancing actions or being vaccinated reducing R with 50% will apply to both curves the same way.
If the fast spreading of omicron is coming mainly from a shifted earlier peak, the structural steady state actions to keep R below 1 (from vaccinations, natural immunities, social distancing) do not need to be stronger than for delta.
But when structural R is above 1 you do need to react faster with a hammer to prevent overwhelming your health care
https://twitter.com/maryb2004/status/1474005903833714697
and a different one.
Which bright spark had the idea of making a coroner, a highly technical bureaucratic medical position an elected position, instead of a proper professional or civil servant?
Also in related news, China now has a longer life expectancy than the USA.
Not just covid, but also overdoes and other deaths of despair, as well as general ill health.
and a different one.
Which bright spark had the idea of making a coroner, a highly technical bureaucratic medical position an elected position, instead of a proper professional or civil servant?
Also in related news, China now has a longer life expectancy than the USA.
Not just covid, but also overdoes and other deaths of despair, as well as general ill health.
Narz
keeping it real
Yeah hopefully faster spread w fewer casualties means everyone will catch covid sooner & we can move forward w humanity + an extra flu.
We're kicking their butt! USA #1
Zardnaar
Deity
USA USA USA number 1!!!
Per capita Denmark is currently leading the pack (with the 7 days rolling average).
Until omicron Denmark was doing quite well.
Here the Our World in Data graph with also showing other interesting countries (and my own).
I compare these countries on new confirmed cases per day, total tests per day, full vaccination rate, booster rate and real lockdown (in so far summarising data easy available).
https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...tbreaks=false&country=USA~NLD~DNK~MLT~ISR~GBR
This leading position of Denmark is happening in a country where:
*A* likely highest amounts of tests done (500,000 per day at a population of 6 Mio), allowing and resulting in intensive contact tracing at high Covid rates, incl to a useful degree sub-strain variant contact tracing, quarantining within household. The public cost 7 Euro per test totalling 1.2 Billion Euro per year. It has become part of the daily tredmill of the people.
*B* 78% of total population fully vaccinated which is very high. Other countries in graph: Malta 84%, UK 69%, NL 67%, Israel 63%, US 61%.
*C* 42% of total population got the booster which is very high. Other countries in graph: UK 47%, Israel 45%, Malta 36%, US 19%, NL 13%.
*D* No real lockdown, no real hammer, so far in Denmark just like in all other countries in the graph except NL. In other words a bit of tweaking along the way with further restrictions at national or regional level.
On *D* I welcome contributions for countries for a better status description of serious restrictions (and not aktionismus of a government with some symbol politics that sounds like the govt is on top of it but does not bring much).
As you can see Denmark, Malta and UK have all high full vaccination and booster rates but also since omicron high new confirmed cases rates.
Now I left out some countries with high full vaccination but still medium booster percentages like Italy, France, Portugal etc. But the picture of new cases increasing rapidly is the same and for the pre-omicron base line of these countries I think it should be considered that the warmer weather there in the South prolonged lower level of indoor contacts. So I took Malta as best kid in the class of South Europe.
My conclusion so far is that you really need a high percentage of the population with a (recent enough) booster to get at least a fair degree of "normality".
AND that as long as you do not have that high booster percentage we are back in the "hammer & dance" status. Lockdown the sledge hammer.
Whereby imo the gloves are meanwhile off: Continuity of the economy & "normal" society #1 with ICU capacity and overwhelmed health care the final yardsticks for governments to intervene with "some" consideration for education (also mental sanity of the kids) and higher priority regular health care.
Beancounters would not agree with you purely based on financial cost
That vaccin is a low cost action which can be executed in an orderly fashion.
And I do think there is enough justified evidence from technical progress so far to assume this Covid will be tackled to an acceptable level of discomfort.
The transition being one jab to travel to foreign countries and one jab to enjoy Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Eve with the oldies perhaps an additional one together with their flu jab... so what ?
Governing is very much about stability and continuity enabling for all participants a fair degree of predictability.
Predictability allowing all participants from a base line of "normality" to plan their lives and actions to some degree, whether that is social (like a holiday) or business (like investments).
EDIT
Not mentioned yet but always in my mind when discussing Covid: it is mandatory that governments of the rich countries give big multi-year orders for vaccins based on at least 2 vaccin rounds per year
It is only when such contracts are in place that the big investments in production capacities will be done incl the efforts needed in commercial R&D to stay tuned to the new strains.
From there it is for the G7, UN, G20 etc to agree together that little bit additional money to add some multi-year contracts for even more capacities to have vaccins at mass-production cost for the rest of the world. Upscaling of direct mass production is cheap but without orders it will not happen.
Until omicron Denmark was doing quite well.
Here the Our World in Data graph with also showing other interesting countries (and my own).
I compare these countries on new confirmed cases per day, total tests per day, full vaccination rate, booster rate and real lockdown (in so far summarising data easy available).
https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...tbreaks=false&country=USA~NLD~DNK~MLT~ISR~GBR
This leading position of Denmark is happening in a country where:
*A* likely highest amounts of tests done (500,000 per day at a population of 6 Mio), allowing and resulting in intensive contact tracing at high Covid rates, incl to a useful degree sub-strain variant contact tracing, quarantining within household. The public cost 7 Euro per test totalling 1.2 Billion Euro per year. It has become part of the daily tredmill of the people.
Spoiler article on testing Denmark :
*B* 78% of total population fully vaccinated which is very high. Other countries in graph: Malta 84%, UK 69%, NL 67%, Israel 63%, US 61%.
Spoiler graph :
*C* 42% of total population got the booster which is very high. Other countries in graph: UK 47%, Israel 45%, Malta 36%, US 19%, NL 13%.
Spoiler graph :
*D* No real lockdown, no real hammer, so far in Denmark just like in all other countries in the graph except NL. In other words a bit of tweaking along the way with further restrictions at national or regional level.
On *D* I welcome contributions for countries for a better status description of serious restrictions (and not aktionismus of a government with some symbol politics that sounds like the govt is on top of it but does not bring much).
As you can see Denmark, Malta and UK have all high full vaccination and booster rates but also since omicron high new confirmed cases rates.
Now I left out some countries with high full vaccination but still medium booster percentages like Italy, France, Portugal etc. But the picture of new cases increasing rapidly is the same and for the pre-omicron base line of these countries I think it should be considered that the warmer weather there in the South prolonged lower level of indoor contacts. So I took Malta as best kid in the class of South Europe.
My conclusion so far is that you really need a high percentage of the population with a (recent enough) booster to get at least a fair degree of "normality".
AND that as long as you do not have that high booster percentage we are back in the "hammer & dance" status. Lockdown the sledge hammer.
Whereby imo the gloves are meanwhile off: Continuity of the economy & "normal" society #1 with ICU capacity and overwhelmed health care the final yardsticks for governments to intervene with "some" consideration for education (also mental sanity of the kids) and higher priority regular health care.
Beancounters would not agree with you purely based on financial cost
That vaccin is a low cost action which can be executed in an orderly fashion.
And I do think there is enough justified evidence from technical progress so far to assume this Covid will be tackled to an acceptable level of discomfort.
The transition being one jab to travel to foreign countries and one jab to enjoy Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Eve with the oldies perhaps an additional one together with their flu jab... so what ?
Governing is very much about stability and continuity enabling for all participants a fair degree of predictability.
Predictability allowing all participants from a base line of "normality" to plan their lives and actions to some degree, whether that is social (like a holiday) or business (like investments).
EDIT
Not mentioned yet but always in my mind when discussing Covid: it is mandatory that governments of the rich countries give big multi-year orders for vaccins based on at least 2 vaccin rounds per year
It is only when such contracts are in place that the big investments in production capacities will be done incl the efforts needed in commercial R&D to stay tuned to the new strains.
From there it is for the G7, UN, G20 etc to agree together that little bit additional money to add some multi-year contracts for even more capacities to have vaccins at mass-production cost for the rest of the world. Upscaling of direct mass production is cheap but without orders it will not happen.
Attachments
Last edited:
EnglishEdward
Deity
My worry isn't the financial cost.
The Thing is the virus mutates, so the vaccine and short term counter measures are revised.
Do that 4 times a year for ten years is 40 revisions of all three.
Even if the virus doesn't mutate into a much more fatal version, the respondent human evolution of vaccine and anti-viral agents may meet
Murphy's law and have inadvertent adverse consequences, perhaps eventually a very nasty result somewhere else on human metabolism.
I cannot say how, what or when etc, (comparison the late Donald Rumfield's known unknowns and unknown unknowns), but I am not
convinced that a continual vaccine and vaccinate again strategy indefinitely will work out well. Maybe that is my pessimism, not optimism.
But you know what they say about optimists and pessimists.
An optimist may thinks he lives in the best possible world.
The pessimist is afraid that that optimist is right.
AFAIU = As Far As I Understand
AFAIU
With the flu and flu vaccins we have the same issue
How to design the vaccin cocktail is always a bit of a crystal ball.
As long as vaccins are based on the ancestor strains of new strains you get a good enough.
Good enough in terms of what you can practically achieve.
When a new strain could develop in some more isolated (human) reservoir and just starts spreading fast after the new vaccin decision was made... well... tough luck.
But AFAIU this happens also with the flu vaccin.
Not every year the flu vaccin is as effective as average.
And if above is a wrong or too simplistic understanding I am happy to hear otherwise.
On side effects
Well... if countries volunteer to have less vaccins against all those diseases for which we have meanwhile vaccins... so be it.
If countries choose to wait until other countries "tested out" the Covid vaccin regime at the giga sample size of a major share of a country's population... so be it.
Both strategies do not build up our insights whereby noted that the so far ever increasing population and travelling densities mean that not developing at a fair pace technical progress will only lead to more and more pandemies.
Not even really mentioning national security aspects and hybrid warfare.
When Romans left the area North of the Rhine they probably threw some bodies in the wells (to poison the water) before burning their castellas to the ground. You can find the skeletons back now. Nothing new.
On optimists and pessimists:
“Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer”
Translated "there is no need for hope to take action, and no need for success to persevere".
That is a quote from the guy who started the Dutch Revolt and was assassinated on orders of Philip II of Spain after 16 years war and 64 years war to go before victory.
Last edited:
EnglishEdward
Deity
Population and travel densities may max out, but
I am not sure at what level that will occur naturally.
Sadly it seem the virus maxed out our life expectancy.
Good news is that current vaccines seem to be still fairly effective in preventing hospitalization and death.
But they may need "fine-tuning" against Omicron. I'm going to need second booster somewhere in February, would prefer it to be updated version already.
Russia has reached 45% fully vaccinated
. At least we are moving forward.
New antiviral drug "Mir-19" is being developed in Russia. It uses "Small Interfering RNA" technology (whatever that means) to block virus multiplication.
From what I'm reading, experts are carefully optimistic about it. If it really shows good efficacy, it may be a major breakthrough.
This is a publication from April, after testing the drug on Syrian hamsters.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/all.14850
Clinical trials are already begun.
But they may need "fine-tuning" against Omicron. I'm going to need second booster somewhere in February, would prefer it to be updated version already.
Russia has reached 45% fully vaccinated
. At least we are moving forward.New antiviral drug "Mir-19" is being developed in Russia. It uses "Small Interfering RNA" technology (whatever that means) to block virus multiplication.
From what I'm reading, experts are carefully optimistic about it. If it really shows good efficacy, it may be a major breakthrough.
This is a publication from April, after testing the drug on Syrian hamsters.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/all.14850
Clinical trials are already begun.
Last edited:
Yes, a minus effect there seems likely for the foreseeable future.
But we do have reducing FDP as low hanging fruit for urbanised and dirty industrialised areas. We have reducing Nitrogen containing fertilisers and livestock faeces as low hanging fruit causing higher pollen rates in the air (or use and/or cultivate tree types producing less pollen).
Perhaps some more fundamental research will give insights in how to decrease ageing of our thymus.
etc, etc.
There is a lot going into that total equation of a longer more controllable healthy lifespan.
It looks like Covid is going endemic and we will have to adapt to that.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1474469936898535433
Ecuador has had 20,600 official covid deaths and 66,540 excess deaths. Their rate of excess deaths is 372/100,000 which is higher than the US 307.
Good on them. More should follow them and Austria.
Ecuador has had 20,600 official covid deaths and 66,540 excess deaths. Their rate of excess deaths is 372/100,000 which is higher than the US 307.
Good on them. More should follow them and Austria.
Berzerker
Deity
What idea?
You're confusing people opposed to vaccines (these vaccines anyway) with people opposed to a mandate. Plenty of people got vaccinated but dont want to compel everyone else to do the same. Jimmy Dore got messed up by the vaccine and he still recommends at risk people protect themselves.
Unfortunately the vaccines are so leaky their main value was largely limited to reducing covid damage in at risk groups. Doesn't look like Omicron cares about our vaccines, or big pharma profits. Had the vaccines been better at limiting spread more people in lower risk groups would get vaccinated. Its hard to convince people when vaccinated people are having super spreader events.
I presume researchers looking to make $$$ off it. I dont remember where I saw the item.
- Status
