Coronavirus 3: The Resurgence

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Well denying the americans because they could be infected doesn't make sense if you let in the others that had sitting right next to them for hours. If the americans were infected, now so are the others. If the others have to quarantine, why cant the americans too?
The Italian, they have to accept him, but the one from NZ? If he came on his own plane from NZ, sure he's probably safe, and that situation is what they had in mind when making the law. But now that he shared a jet with americans, he's just as risky as the americans are.
 
When did NZ ever have voluntary isolation? Can you link a source about that?



Conveniently for me, every time I've been on an overseas trip for the past five years I've gotten sick and taken a week or two of paid sick leave from work on return - so the pattern is established for that to continue.

Very briefly right before mandatory lock down. It lasted four days or a week.
 
"Everyone arriving in New Zealand must now self-isolate for 14 days."

That's not voluntary.

Voluntary self isolate as well. I can't remember the exact dates. 25th was lockdown.

Things happened fairly fast. From around the 14th/15th I'll see what else I can find.
 
California has been added to the list of states where residents from it who (whom?) travel to New York must undergo a 14 day quarantine. So there goes any chance I'll be able to go to my brother's wedding and get to see the big apple this year. :(
 
I really don't think that was ever a thing.

Well this is from the 14th.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-51885983

When she says must though that's what she wants. It has no legal backing.

At that point it was expected you self isolate but it wasn't managed. Basically you get off the plane and are expected to self isolate.

It wasn't actually enforced.

One week later tourists breaking the rules.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318638

It's that what you should do vs what you will do.

They're using the military now. In Australia one state used the military for quarantine, Victoria hired security guards and that's where they had their breach.

Our breach involved ministry of health. After that the military were brought in and the health minister has resigned.

Mid March we have a problem with a week they unveil the lockdown system, 4 days after that lockdown, two days after that wage subsidy going out.
 
Well this is from the 14th.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-51885983

When she says must though that's what she wants. It has no legal backing.

Those rules absolutely had legal backing, they were in no way voluntary.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...prime-minister-updates-nz-on-covid19-outbreak

SO WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES FOR NZ?

* Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific. These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days' time.

* The existing travel ban for China and Iran will continue

* Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least June 30, 2020

* Strict new health measures at the border for people departing to the Pacific

* Measures to help those in self-isolation to be announced next week

* Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage airlines to remain active in New Zealand, limiting the impacts on the tourism sector and exporters

* There will be a directive on mass gatherings announced early next week
 
Well denying the americans because they could be infected doesn't make sense if you let in the others that had sitting right next to them for hours. If the americans were infected, now so are the others. If the others have to quarantine, why cant the americans too?
The Italian, they have to accept him, but the one from NZ? If he came on his own plane from NZ, sure he's probably safe, and that situation is what they had in mind when making the law. But now that he shared a jet with americans, he's just as risky as the americans are.

1) Quarantine is always a risk, because people need to be supplied with food or they could just break it. So you want to minimize the people into quarantine
2) Denying entry because of nationality is an easy way to limit the number of entries from high-risk areas. The privilege to enter a country you are not a citizen of can be revoked at will. Sure, you might get the odd one from NZ who lives in the USA, but there is not many of those
3) The USA denies entry to Europeans as well, which makes even less sense by now. So there is also a bit of retribution here.
 
EU and UK are letting NZers in. Yay for us. The Covid risk from those NZers would be from them traveling through the airports.

If those airports also only allow passengers from low risk countries it minimises the risk (doesn't eliminate it).

We're getting a hit rate of about 1% for returning NZers.

Departing NZers the risk us almost 0. The country spent 7 weeks in strict lockdown and there's been no community spread since early April.

In essence we've been in quarantine as a nation since March.
 
Technically yes but people didn't follow them.

They used the police a few days later once we went into lockdown.

A bit more coercion because people can't be relied upon to follow the rules.

So in other words, mandatory. Not voluntary.

If you're convicted of a crime and sentenced to house arrest, it isn't "voluntary" just because you're not guarded in an actual prison.
 
So in other words, mandatory. Not voluntary.

Unsupervised may be more accurate.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/heal...-after-escaping-managed-isolation-in-auckland

Not optional any more cops and military being used.

3 new cases found in quarantine today.

Basically you can't trust people to do the right thing.

There's always some sob story, some are even sad (funerals, dying mother etc) but you gotta be tough. They made exemptions and people ignored it so no exemptions atm.

Tough luck.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/heal...g-with-separation-from-kiwi-schooled-children
 
Melbourne's outbreak (over 100 cases yesterday, another 70 today) is now being described as involving one or more super-spreaders from the dodgy hotel quarantine situation. A couple of days ago, Victoria was the only place in the country to record new cases and I believe in the last few days the only cases outside Victoria have been international quarantined returnees and a two people who left Victoria after quarantine and tested positive in Northern Territory and NSW respectively.

Every other state either has had closed borders, ie mandatory 14 day isolation periods, with Victoria for a while (SA, NT, Queensland, Tasmania, WA), or has now put a ban on travellers from the specific areas identified by Victoria as hotspots (NSW and ACT, in their first departures from open borders so far). Ten of the 18 AFL teams, the ones based in Victoria, are evacuating to be based in Queensland. Sydney and Perth for a few weeks.

It has gotten into some high density public housing estates and the Victorian government has elected to flood them with cops on every storey of the buildings (500 for 3000 residents) and completely ban residents from leaving their apartments. That's a pretty bad look when this is a community who have generally pretty negative experience of the police, certainly can't afford fines, and is happening while the broader lockdowns are still on a suburb by suburb basis. Meaning we've had absurdities like football games being played 2 kilometres from where poor, marginalised people with a high rate of mental illness and other complex needs are basically being imprisoned.

Pretty grim approach from an ostensibly progressive (but massively cop loving) government, especially after last time during the first lockdown, the same Victorian cops were mostly targetting poor and non-white areas with fines having little correlation to where the virus actually was (at that point it was mostly in affluent suburbs after being brought back from trips to places like Aspen).
 
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Here's how the waves look in terms of transmission sources, Note the prevalence of grey/black overseas acquisitions in the first wave and then the predominance of blue and orange local transmission more recently.

upload_2020-7-5_15-3-47.png


Here's how it looks with those overseas cases removed:

upload_2020-7-5_15-5-10.png


And of course bear in mind that this second wave is entirely in one city, where earlier there were cases in several cities.
 
I get the sense that trying to run a country with loose enough restrictions such that R>1 in general, while controlling entry to prevent spread is going to be a fundamentally unstable situation for the foreseeable future.

Like having a vast swath of terrain that's highly flammable and only trying to indefinitely suppress it ever catching on fire, rather than managing it to reduce flammability.
 
I get the sense that trying to run a country with loose enough restrictions such that R>1 in general, while controlling entry to prevent spread is going to be a fundamentally unstable situation for the foreseeable future.

Like having a vast swath of terrain that's highly flammable and trying to indefinitely suppress it ever catching on fire, rather than managing it to reduce flammability.

You basically just have to have very strict border controls and wait for it to burn out overseas or get a vaccine.

Countries like Aussie and NZ can add a bit more coercion into taking the vaccine. It can be a condition of entry to school, university, government support, daycare etc.
 
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