Coronavirus 4

[ShogunGrumpyBear]

I mean, for any given vaccine that is shown to be safe and effective after years of development, it's possible to just skip all the trials and go with that vaccine from the start.

Yeah true but that's the thing, years of development. When we talking about only months of development, maybe a year at most, then it's a high risk or high reward thing. It's either going to work straight out of the gate or nothing will work, which will set the world back years then probably.

The only true things that can help settle this is either this just disappears which it won't, it becomes like the common cold in a few years which I heard some say or we get a vaccine. Otherwise we're in trouble I guess.

 

[r16]

so , let me see , didnt Voice of Russia say they would do 500 000 shots of vaccine by next March , for like 15 dollars . And didn't that lead to Oxford declaring theirs would be 4 or 5 dollars and it would be produced in Mexico , because don't we all know that if 300 000 die in the US , we are looking at 450 000 in Brazil alone , and likewise in the rest of the continent , where Cuba still has some traction ?

 

[red_elk]

Even if we limit it to vaccines, you're still only up to about a 70% success rate at phase 3, and that's for vaccines that had years of phase 1 and 2 testing to weed out problematic candidates before they started.

Again, nobody is going to give this vaccine to millions of people before next stage of trials is complete.

I know they have decided to announce approval of this vaccine without presenting evidence of safety. I know that they have not presented evidence they have run a proper set of trials, let alone the results of them. I know that they have not had time to test vaccine efficacy or safety on any time frame beyond one month because it is a temporal impossibility for them to have done otherwise.

It will be tested on 2000 subjects for the next three months. Whether it will be given to people or not will be determined by results of this test. All kinds of things may go wrong, but you can't claim it doesn't work until tests are competed and results published.

Since it isn't true, I'm not entirely clear what your point is anyway. If it's that it's OK to cut corners on safety testing the early Soviet space program is probably not the best place to look for supporting stories...

I wrote that it's not always worthy to spend years on development something when cheaper and faster solution may work just as well. What exactly "not true" there?

The Russian candidate actually uses two different vectors, as two separate shots to try and get round this. Will that work? Possibly - it's a reasonable approach to investigate. But it's unproven, and does not have any features to magically make it faster to test for safety or efficacy compared to any other candidate.

So it's a reasonable approach to investigate, it may work and Russia is actually investigating it... ok.

 

[red_elk]

Russia's respiratory medicine expert Prof. Alexander Chuchalin has just resigned from the health ministry over the numerous ethical issues with what passed for testing of this vaccine candidate.

Strange. From what I'm reading now, prof. Chuchalin resigned from bioethic commission in health ministry because he was offered the same position in Russian Academy of Science.

 

[MrCynical]

It will be tested on 2000 subjects for the next three months. Whether it will be given to people or not will be determined by results of this test. All kinds of things may go wrong, but you can't claim it doesn't work until tests are competed and results published.

That would be something, although it would still lack most of phase 3 and long term testing. Snag is the fact the approval for the vaccine has been given before the test and without evidence that it's safe. And in science, burden of proof is on showing it works, not proving that it doesn't.

I wrote that it's not always worthy to spend years on development something when cheaper and faster solution may work just as well. What exactly "not true" there?

The old story about space pens and pencils was the bit that wasn't true. Sorry if that wasn't clear. Cheaper and faster is nice if it works just as well. But again we're back to the need to show that it works as well. Which has not been done.

So it's a reasonable approach to investigate, it may work and Russia is actually investigating it... ok.

I've no problem with the science adenovirus approach. Well, beyond some technical issues about how common immune responses to the vector are. But it isn't some magic approach which makes it faster or unnecessary to safety test it.

Strange. From what I'm reading now, prof. Chuchalin resigned from bioethic commission in health ministry because he was offered the same position in Russian Academy of Science.

The reports I've read have him repeatedly criticizing the inadequate safety testing, attempting to block the approval of the unproven vaccine, and then resigning when the approval was pushed through anyway. And his objections are entirely in line with other medical experts in the WHO and elsewhere. Maybe I'm just living up to my username, but I have my doubts about the claim he's just moving to some new position (and I haven't seen anything claiming that myself).

Now, to be clear - I would really like to see an effective vaccine, wherever it comes from. But I do not like to see an unproven candidate with no published safety information being plugged as "The first approved Covid vaccine". Which is exactly what is being done on the website they've just put up: https://sputnikvaccine.com/

 

[Narz]

My buddy I played basketball (outdoors) tested positive, his brother who stayed with him @ his apartment for a week tested negative. I got a free test the Devil Ray's stadium parking lot a week ago, I suspect I'm negative as I have no symptoms.

 

[red_elk]

That would be something, although it would still lack most of phase 3 and long term testing. Snag is the fact the approval for the vaccine has been given before the test and without evidence that it's safe. And in science, burden of proof is on showing it works, not proving that it doesn't.

Approval only makes it possible to start mass production earlier. So when phase 3 is complete, there will be few millions of doses already available.

The old story about space pens and pencils was the bit that wasn't true.

I said it's not worth to spend millions on space pen if pencil can do the same much cheaper.
I didn't say anyone actually spent them and not sure what you are so eagerly disproving in every post since then.

Maybe I'm just living up to my username, but I have my doubts about the claim he's just moving to some new position (and I haven't seen anything claiming that myself).

It's according to his own words. If he is resigning in protest, it's strange that he moves to the same post in another governmental structure.

 

[MrCynical]

Approval only makes it possible to start mass production earlier. So when phase 3 is complete, there will be few millions of doses already available.

I might buy that, if it wasn't for the line taken in their announcements, on their website, and the rather desperate naming it "Sputnik". I'm not really seeing it's necessary to start inaccurately spinning it as "the first Covid vaccine" just to get mass production started. Scale up of production of other candidates seems to be managing fine without premature approval.

It's according to his own words. If he is resigning in protest, it's strange that he moves to the same post in another governmental structure.

There is precisely nothing about him getting a new post in English that I can find. I accept there may be more info in Russian. But whatever the official reason for his sudden departure, his statements have been very clear that this approval was a gross breach of medical ethics. A verdict which has been echoed by plenty of other medical experts elsewhere.

 

[red_elk]

I might buy that, if it wasn't for the line taken in their announcements, on their website, and the rather desperate naming it "Sputnik". I'm not really seeing it's necessary to start inaccurately spinning it as "the first Covid vaccine" just to get mass production started. Scale up of production of other candidates seems to be managing fine without premature approval.

It's called advertising. 18 countries already expressed interest in obtaining and producing it.
Risky approach, but the authors seemingly estimate chances to successfully pass stage 3 as rather high.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's called advertising. 18 countries already expressed interest in obtaining and producing it.
Risky approach, but the authors seemingly estimate chances to successfully pass stage 3 as rather high.

It could have been a nice little earner but because of the rush and secrecy most reputable state healthcare won't buy it.

 

[The_J]

Bloody goddamn arse feces.

The French government has upped the level of my region (among others) from green to orange, and the Dutch government has tightened travel restriction to these areas.
I have a friend over who will tomorrow fly back and will need to self-quarantine afterwards. He has been postponing meetings for like a half hour and has tried to organize home delivery of groceries, but apparently there are no time slots available.
I was meant to fly on Wednesday. On Friday I was planned to be a witness at a friends wedding. Luckily only the signing at the municipality, and nothing big. I had asked like 20 people on 2 different locations to celebrate my birthday a few days later. My girlfriend (we just got back together again) had booked a hotel and bought nice lingerie.
Nothing of this is happening now. The wedding will work without me, only one witness per side is required, and there is one more. But I am sad to miss it. And my GF nearly cried on the phone.
I hate it so much.

 

[tuckerkao]

Normally a phase 2 trial would last a couple of years

I'll stick with the definition of further along as being closer to producing a vaccine that is safe and effective.

The Moderna candidate went into phase 1 testing back in March, and was in phase 2 by May. So four months vs two for the first two phases of testing, and that was still rushed enough to stick some rather large question marks on some bits of their results. But yes, by any reasonable definition they are one of the candidates that is further along than the Russian one.

And I'm seeing a rather concerning attitude that phase 2 and 3 testing is just some kind of formality. 70% of candidates that go into phase 2 fail it - it's actually the toughest of the tests to make it through, which is why shortcuts at that stage are a major problem. And phase 3 isn't trivial either - about 40% of candidates that begin phase 3 fail it due to side effects that only become apparent with the larger population.

The whole coronavirus vaccine race became political mainly because President Trump tried to hurry the production companies up to help his re-election chance.

In order for a vaccine candidate to be really considered safe and effective, 75% immunity for 6 months minimum must be achieved, best if higher. Dr. Fauci already warned that if the political officials kept skipping the safety measures for reopenings and vaccine qualifications, the massive death may be inevitable.

 

[Lemon Merchant]

I noticed on the news that the big orange idiot now has a doctor for his Coronavirus briefings who agrees with every stupid thing he says. Did Fauci get booted and I missed it in the news?

 

[AmazonQueen]

I noticed on the news that the big orange idiot now has a doctor for his Coronavirus briefings who agrees with every stupid thing he says. Did Fauci get booted and I missed it in the news?

Fauci hasn't lost his job, just he and Birx haven't been positive enough, so Dr Scott Atlas (Is that really his name!] who isn't an expert (at least on this) but is prepared to say the right things on Fox gets put on the task force.

 

[Lemon Merchant]

Fauci hasn't lost his job, just he and Birx haven't been positive enough, so Dr Scott Atlas (Is that really his name!] who isn't an expert (at least on this) but is prepared to say the right things on Fox gets put on the task force.

Ahhh. Thank you. I am less confused. Shame that the American people will now be getting even more compromised information.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Ahhh. Thank you. I am less confused. Shame that the American people will now be getting even more compromised information.

And it will continue until November 3.

 

[Zardnaar]

And it will continue until November 3.

January even if Trump loses.

 

[tuckerkao]

And it will continue until November 3.

It really won't matter that much as how many deaths the United States have now. All I know is that the total deaths will raise well above 200,000 by Nov 3, very possible around 250,000 given that the condition won't get worse.

President Trump claimed that he has saved lives, cannot say that until an effective vaccine is available. Don't claim a victory while the game isn't over yet.

 

[Velegon]

It really won't matter that much as how many deaths the United States have now. All I know is that the total deaths will raise well above 200,000 by Nov 3, very possible around 250,000 given that the condition won't get worse.

President Trump claimed that he has saved lives, cannot say that until an effective vaccine is available. Don't claim a victory while the game isn't over yet.

Hasn't stopped Republican administrations before to prematurely claim victory - and Trump is much much more likely to do so more than W. Bush was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missi...er,the Mideast, the name took on strong irony.

 

[Zardnaar]

hehe now The Americans are ahead of china even, they are always ahead of everyone in everything, indeed they are most superior in everything.

china created corona and The Americans suppressed them by being its victim in greater amount than china itself. indeed these Americans are born to remain ahead in everything.

USA number 1 suckers!!!!