Coronavirus. The n(in)th sequel.

[Birdjaguar]

mfw I read "WSJ opinion"

That is why I stated it up front. It was not written by the editorial staff though; those are mostly trash. I did not look at the credentials of the two authors though.

 

[amadeus]

I don’t know how to grade scientific evidence, but there’s questions we can ask without needing those credentials—all of which come down ultimately to if you believe the Xi-C-P is a good-faith actor. Is that a horse I want to put my money on? He’s wearing the size 13 Bruno Magli shoes while Tedros is up front driving the Bronco.

 

[Berzerker]

It is an exceptionally dangerous vaccine, for vaccine standards - the ratio of side effects reported is orders of magnitude greater that for any other common vaccine in use today.

I didn't know that... But if injecting a vaccine into the blood stream accounts for some cases of inflammation then maybe some of the side effects are human error and not so much the vaccine. Maybe the platelet problem was caused by hitting a vein too. The same researcher suggested injecting the thigh to create more distance between the injection site and chest lymph nodes.

Getting protection from the thing ... by getting it, and possibly dying from it, or having permanent health complications. Even if you survive intact, you could be on the hook for major bills. Financially ruining you, or your family.

It's like saying you want to get shot in the head because you would get a plate put in your skull and have protection against bullets.

We are talking about people who got covid already, your advice is irrelevant to them and the question of what is necessary or not. They dont need the vaccine.

Nah Evolution is competely fake. Its just a lie by Medical science
Just like the lie about vaccines and how all the ones that are now dying are the unvaccinated ...... for some reason that you cannot connect the dots.

Is it so hard to understand why humans invented VACCINES ?
Comeon its not that hard.

I said we evolved protection, that was the point. The dots are being connected in Israel, people who had covid are better protected than people getting the vaccine. That makes a vaccine unnecessary for millions of people who will be fired even though the science is on their side.

Well, yeah, go ahead and read the science linked there and see for yourself which of your points are nonsense.

if you cant be bothered, I sure wont do it for you

 

[amadeus]

In isolation, you may be right about antibodies gained from infection. I’m concerned less with the direct scientific findings (which could change) and more on the ripple effect of giving vaccine opponents a Trojan horse that will further prolong this manmade disaster. Okay, so there’s a bit of guilt-by-association here, but ... why is it that when you get these proponents all together, it’s always the same cohort? The UFO people, the fake moon landing people, the flat earth people—eventually it should be asked why the heck there’s this constant alignment, and how much validity we should give them.

 

[Gorbles]

A good (or at the least, informative) Twitter thread arguing why we shouldn't let Covid-19 become endemic.

I think it's also written up in the linked article, but I was browsing Twitter, so, hey!

 

[Arwon]

Seems way too late for that lol

 

[Verbose]

A good (or at the least, informative) Twitter thread arguing why we shouldn't let Covid-19 become endemic.

I think it's also written up in the linked article, but I was browsing Twitter, so, hey!

That's assuming we can.

 

[Drakle]

A good (or at the least, informative) Twitter thread arguing why we shouldn't let Covid-19 become endemic.

I think it's also written up in the linked article, but I was browsing Twitter, so, hey!

text quoted. Since twitter doesn't work on many devices.

I would clean up it up, but I have to leave in a few minutes for something, and its a long ass thread. Might edit later.

COVID-19 must be eliminated, not become endemic, if America is to survive

"More and more people seem to be accepting the idea the future will include COVID-19.

"Those people don’t understand what that means.

1/
COVID-19 must be eliminated, not become endemic, if America is to survive
On Friday, pharmaceutical company Merck announced that they were taking their antiviral drug molnupiravir to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), hoping for a quick Emergency Use Authorization (EUA…
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2021...ed-not-endemic-if-America-is-going-to-survive
Take The Wall Street Journal, which on Friday published an article stating “COVID-19 will soon become endemic—and the sooner the better.”
"This... is not just a formula for millions of deaths, but an absolute ticket to the end of the line for America, and likely for what..

2/
"we currently think of as modern society. We simply cannot live with endemic COVID-19.

"Hang on, let me say that again: We. Cannot. Live. With. Endemic. COVID-19. I can be louder. And I will be.

3/
"Expectations of the “epidemic COVID-19” crowd seem to be that each year people will line up for their COVID-19 shot when they get their flu shot, that things will go back to a pre-pandemic “normal,” and that “Oh, George is home with the COVID-19” will just join everyday...

4/
"..watercooler chatter alongside “Poor Cecelia is out with the flu.” A flurry of “get well soon!” emails, a week or two of moaning in bed, and George and Cecelia will both drag their achy asses back to the office and clear their crowded inboxes.

5/
"But that is not at all how allowing epidemic COVID-19 to become endemic COVID would work.

"Here’s how it would actually play out:
"Forget having any kind of regular schedule

6/
"We’ve had COVID-19 spikes in every season, because the transmission rate of COVID-19 is so high that it takes extraordinary precautions—masks, social distancing, improved ventilation, and vaccination—to put the genie back in the bottle and drive the effective R0 below 1.

7/
"And because COVID-19 is so highly contagious, it’s not going to be just one person home with the disease. The first thing we’d have to live with if we accept endemic COVID-19 is the idea that not just individual cases, but dense local outbreaks, could happen at any time.

8/
"It would look like a world where businesses and schools frequently have to close for days or weeks because too many people were simply too ill to carry on.On a purely economic basis, the CDC estimates that outages due to the flu cost American business over $10 billion a year

9/
"COVID-19’s impact would be many times that amount, and far more disruptive.

10/
"PREPARE FOR HEALTHCARE THAT'S MUCH MORE COSTLY

"Endemic COVID-19 doesn’t mean it boils at a low level everywhere...Every single locality in the nation would be subject to a possible overrun of the local healthcare system at any time.

11/
"The scenes that have appeared so many times over the last year—tents being erected in parking lots, exhausted nurses wandering hallways choked with patients—would recur again and again"

12/
"AN EMPTY SEAT AT EVERY TABLE

"What happens when the healthcare system fails to accommodate the latest surge/spike/wave is clear enough:.. leading to death rates of 13% or higher in some communities over the short term.

13/
"That is, of course, the most extreme outcome. But on a more regular basis, COVID-19 is still very much not the flu. Where seasonal flu has a fatality rate of around 0.1%, the overall value for COVID-19 in the US to date is 1.6%. Worldwide ...around 1.3%.

14/
"On both a personal and economic level, that increase in the rate of deaths would be a gut-punch to the nation. It’s the kind of situation that requires an emotional sea change; one that increases the chances that anyone you know—any associate, any friend,...

15/
"..any member of the family—could vanish at any time. That’s already true, of course. But this would be an almost 6% increase in the total number of deaths each year. Every single year.

16/
"Flu, with basic reproductive number of 1.4 and an average rate of 51% vaccination each year, generates an average of around 35 million cases each year. In the 2017-2018 season.. there were an estimated 50 million cases of flu, one million hospitalizations, 90,000 deaths.

17/
"Now scale all that up for a disease with a minimum R0 of 5, and hospitalization and fatality rates 10 times that of flu. If the U.S. treats endemic COVID-19 like it does the flu, a “bad COVID-19 year” could easily see another 200,000 or 300,000 deaths. Maybe more.

18/
"DEATH IS ONLY THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG

"From the start of the pandemic, there have been those who shrugged off the threat with some variation of the phrase “why be worried when XX.X%” of people don’t die?”

19/
"For XX.X%, substitute any number between 99% and 99.9999%, depending on how unrealistic and dismissive the person making the statement was being at the time.

It’s a foolish formulation, that blithely dismisses the deaths of Americans of every race, age, in every locality.

20/
"However, that’s not the most foolish part of the statement.

"While diseases like the flu can definitely generate “complications,” lasting damage for survivors is very rare, while lasting damage from COVID-19 is anything but.

21/
This study shows over a third of those who tested positive for COVID-19 have symptoms months later. Some of these patients were asymptomatic at the time they tested positive for COVID-19, and still developed serious, long-lasting issues weeks later.
journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a…

22/

Incidence, co-occurrence, and evolution of long-COVID features: A 6-month retrospective cohort study of 273,618 survivors of COVID-19
Maxime Taquet and colleagues investigate the incidence, co-occurrence and evolution of long-COVID features in more than a quarter of a million people.
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003773
"Going back to our watercooler, when Cecelia comes back to the office after two weeks of flu, she may be wiped out from body aches and dehydration. But she doesn’t come back with hearing loss, brain fog, and a fresh case of diabetes.

23/
"Thus the cost of COVID-19 can’t be compared to that of the flu, because in addition to the greater number of deaths, COVID-19 causes enormously more long-term illness than any current endemic disease.

24/
DIFFICULT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE

Living with endemic COVID-19 means living in a nation where businesses and schools are subject to extended and erratic closings, where healthcare systems can be overrun at a moment’s notice, where hundreds of thousands more die, and where

25/
"..millions of Americans are hit with long-term damage that can render them unable to work or dependent on long-term care. And again, that’s not a short-term situation, that’s what endemic COVID-19 would look like every year.

26/
"Those willing to buy into this endemic vision call the idea of eradicating COVID-19, or pushing it down to the level of a rarely appearing disease, “unreasonable.” The Wall Street Journal in particular goes out of its way to pretend that this is impossible, citing smallpox

27/
"..as the only disease ever eradicated and listing the reasons why it was so much easier to defeat than COVID. But there is an enormous gulf between dealing with COVID-19 as an endemic disease that is just accepted into the cycle of everyday life,

28/
".and causing SARS-CoV-2 to become extinct in the wild.

That gulf holds everything from polio to COVID’s close relatives, SARS&MERS. None of those viruses has been completely eliminated, but they’ve been rendered so rare that they are no longer a threat to anyone, anywhere.

29/
"Reaching that goal for COVID-19 means hitting a vaccination rate in excess of 90%. It involves using new antiviral treatments to not just combat hospitalizations, but to reduce transmission in the homes of those exposed.

30/
"It involves continuing to use masks and social distancing to break the chain of transmission in areas where COVID-19 is still present in the community.

31/
"Those advocating for endemic COVID can say that eliminating it is “unreasonable” all they want, but living with it is impossible. Eradicating COVID may be difficult, but it doesn’t come with a massive body count or millions with diabetes, blindness, or other afflictions.

32/
"Whatever the price of defeating COVID-19 may be—economically, socially, politically—it must be paid. Because the alternative is a stark threat to our nation.

33/
Also relevant. Discussion for the UK but similar points relevant to other countries in Europe and the US.

History of elimination in the UK

 

[Zardnaar]

More cases outside Auckland.

Vaccination rates by area. I'm on that 2 bump SE coast of South Island.


https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work...a/covid-19-vaccination-uptake-rates-across-nz

Mass vaccinations started about two months ago.

Rates going up since recent developments.

Only first jabs so far but they've changed the recommendation from 6 weeks down to three basically says mg get second jab sooner rather than later.

 

[Zardnaar]

That's assuming we can.

Yep. Once it gets out delta different beast.

 

[Snowygerry]

"COVID-19 must be eliminated, not become endemic, if America is to survive"

"Because the alternative is a stark threat to our nation."

Seriously ?

A nation of drama queens

 

[uppi]

A good (or at the least, informative) Twitter thread arguing why we shouldn't let Covid-19 become endemic.

I think it's also written up in the linked article, but I was browsing Twitter, so, hey!

I agree that it would be better to eliminate the virus, but I don't think we have a choice.

 

[Gorbles]

Seriously ?

A nation of drama queens

I genuinely recommend giving it a read. Social media necessitates stark statements to get the appropriate attention. But, also, it's fair that someone views the situation that way (they explain the dangers throughout the thread).

 

[Berzerker]

Also pretty sure we give out vaccines for older diseases too when children reach school-age. If the immunity passed from my parents to me, I want to know why they were sticking me with that needle in the school library.

It would be interesting to see if these childhood vaccinations improve the immune responses of their descendants. For example, if generations of children get the polio vaccine will the vaccine gradually become unnecessary?

If we go to the hospital, you can have the “natural immunity” doctor.

Allow me to expand: if my doctor got the coronavirus, that means they’re probably around of other sick people, so I want them to have the best immunity my yen can buy because I don’t trust other people. A lot of them happen, unfortunately, to be morons. Some of them even get elected to Congress or promoted to middle management.

So given the options, do I want to take my chance with the virgin “natural immunity” doctor, or do I want the Chad Super-Immunity doctor? Gimme the latter.

The natural immunity doctor had covid and was left with an even stronger immune system than the vaccinated doctor.

In isolation, you may be right about antibodies gained from infection. I’m concerned less with the direct scientific findings (which could change) and more on the ripple effect of giving vaccine opponents a Trojan horse that will further prolong this manmade disaster. Okay, so there’s a bit of guilt-by-association here, but ... why is it that when you get these proponents all together, it’s always the same cohort? The UFO people, the fake moon landing people, the flat earth people—eventually it should be asked why the heck there’s this constant alignment, and how much validity we should give them.

Some people really mistrust government. This was man made, made in a lab. Kinda self defeating to punch down at conspiracy theorists who dont trust the government by throwing covid at them. This is about people who got covid losing jobs for refusing a vaccine they dont need. I dont think there are many people regardless of ideology or eccentricities that would gladly take an unnecessary vaccine, especially to convince anti-vaxxers its safe.

It turns out that people who survived SARS-1 do a lot better with SARS-2, since they do already have antibody protection. It also seems that they generate after both infections a range of antibodies, which is a lot wider. But it shouldn't be forgotten that both SARS-1 and MERS were rather confined, and that not too many people got it. I'd also not say that getting 2 possibly deadly diseases is the best thing which can happen to you right now .

So most people will not have natural immunity. The other coronaviruses in circulation aren't close enough to yield strong enough antibodies against SARS-2. (IIRC)

One of the reasons I got the vaccine is because I dont get sick enough, one mild case of the flu in 45 years. Either my immune system was/is working fine or I was getting lucky, I decided the vaccine would serve as a booster just in case. If I had covid with 1-2 flu-like days and recovered I wouldn't bother with the vaccine, but since its been forever since I got sick it'd be wise to make sure my system has a safer introduction to the bug.

Getting vaccinated in a pandemic shouldn't count as "unnecessary", no?

Unnecessary for people who already got covid.

The numbers in most countries with high vaccination rate show that the deaths from Covid are far reduced in these countries, in comparsion to places with a lower vaccination rate.
That should count for something .

But how many people who had covid and recovered died from a 2nd infection? Thats the number to compare to the mortality rate of the vaccinated group. One Israeli study said Pfizer recipients were 27x more likely to get symptomatic infection than people who got their protection from covid. I suspect part of the reason is people who got covid did so thru the respiratory system and the vaccine is injected.

For the same reason I want a doctor who's not quitting coffee, I want a doctor who's not had coronavirus.

There's a statistically significant chance I'm dealing with someone hiding their Brain Fog and coasting on their credentials. They'll still know more than I do, but it's still an unnecessary risk

You shouldn't be mandated to see that doctor, but the vaccine aint gonna help brain fog so maybe people who had covid should be fired for being unnecessary risks.

Edit: here's the plague/HIV connection. But that's not inheriting resistance, in the epigenetic sense. It's natural selection.

Thx for the link. If we had identical twins and one got a childhood disease and the other didn't, is there any way the twin who got sick will transmit that experience to their kids via inherited resistance while the other does not? I thought our DNA changes for various reasons, the invading bug and immune response might leave their mark in the DNA that gets passed along.

 

[Snowygerry]

Well I wouldn't say a lethal, highly contagious virus is not a danger - it is, but is hardly a threat to a nation state as such is it ?

 

[Samson]

I genuinely recommend giving it a read. Social media necessitates stark statements to get the appropriate attention. But, also, it's fair that someone views the situation that way (they explain the dangers throughout the thread).

They explain what they see as the dangers, but not the uncertainty about the actual outcome, or any idea about how we can choose whether it becomes endemic. He states that "Reaching that goal for COVID-19 means hitting a vaccination rate in excess of 90%". But if 90% vaccination will stop it becoming endemic, then it will not become endemic, as we will reach 90% immunity in that scenario.

We certainly should be doing what we can to reduce incidence, and that will look very like trying to stop it becoming endemic, but we should not assume that is possible in our long term planning.

 

[Gorbles]

Well I wouldn't say a lethal, highly contagious virus is not a danger - it is, but is hardly a threat to a nation state as such is it ?

He goes into some detail on the impact on society, families, the workforce, and so on. It's certainly not a small deal, and something a nation would have to address, nationally (which in the US perhaps more than some other Western countries is a problem due to the size, scope and nature of devolution). Other countries may suffer less, or perhaps more, it's hard to tell. I certainly wouldn't want various professional services here in the UK reduced by a further % based on the impact of fatal Covid cases. Certain disciplines (*cough* nurses, *cough*) are stretched way too thin as it is.

That's where the danger is, at least to me. For the jobs already understaffed and without a decent budget. And amusingly (not amusingly), these jobs are often important ones.

They explain what they see as the dangers, but not the uncertainty about the actual outcome, or any idea about how we can choose whether it becomes endemic. He states that "Reaching that goal for COVID-19 means hitting a vaccination rate in excess of 90%". But if 90% vaccination will stop it becoming endemic, then it will not become endemic, as we will reach 90% immunity in that scenario.

We certainly should be doing what we can to reduce incidence, and that will look very like trying to stop it becoming endemic, but we should not assume that is possible in our long term planning.

I don't think we should automatically assume it's possible, but we shouldn't admit defeat like I see a lot of folks in here doing.

Don't get me wrong, I understand the general apathy on that count. But, in my opinion, it's something worth fighting for.

 

[Snowygerry]

He goes into some detail on the impact on society, families, the workforce, and so on. It's certainly not a small deal, and something a nation would have to address, nationally (which in the US perhaps more than some other Western countries is a problem due to the size, scope and nature of devolution). Other countries may suffer less, or perhaps more, it's hard to tell. I certainly wouldn't want various professional services here in the UK reduced by a further % based on the impact of fatal Covid cases. Certain disciplines (*cough* nurses, *cough*) are stretched way too thin as it is. (...)

No - it is a once-in-century disaster, likely it will be the "biggest deal" in our lifetimes, in a historical sense - but still it is not a threat to a nation, few things are.

 

[Samson]

No - it is a once-in-century disaster, likely it will be the "biggest deal" in our lifetimes, in a historical sense - but still it is not a threat to a nation, few things are.

Plagues have brought down a few empires in the past.

 

[uppi]

I don't think we should automatically assume it's possible, but we shouldn't admit defeat like I see a lot of folks in here doing.

Whether the disease will become endemic is mostly a function of biology, for example how long immunity last. Baring a medical breakthrough, we don't have much influence on that.