Coronavirus. The n(in)th sequel.

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Just figuring out what your stance is
 
This thread can be hard to follow with all the weird anti vax and home-brew immunology stuff to skim over so I got a bit lost in what you in particular were arguing. Vaccine requirements for working in high risk places, good, though?
 
Just figuring out what your stance is

My stance is tackling every error I can find because I am opinion that we're in the baby-steps stage of the pandemics this century could see. This is a trial run of what could happen.


Vaccine requirements for working in high risk places, good, though?
Especially if you have a captive customer base. But we should be mandating the very best transmission-reducing technologies as well, especially if both these cohorts don't truly have a choice in their exposure to the total risk.


Just the good ones like reducing transmission risks.
Definitely.

Right now there is fighting on my social media feed as to whether the vaccine-hesitant are 'selfish'. I am in personal conversation with someone who refuses to believe that our local AZ crowd volunteered quickly out of a sense of Common Good. Their echo-chamber was spreading it as the AZ crowd "just wanting their freedoms back" (as if they were sheeple, for lack of a better term). That person then complained about how the hesitant crowd didn't appreciate being painted as 'selfish'. This was part of a longer conversation spreading back months.

"Of course selfishness was part of their makeup, this is the same cohort that wasn't swayed at all by the concept of herd immunity". I then emphasized that the hesitancy might not be 'selfish' itself, merely that we know there's a bias on that front. Everyone misinterprets data, so you know the bias based on how it's misinterpreted.

So, on people's bias regarding vaccinating kids:

let's keep in mind that it's currently unknown (by us) whether the data passes reasonable thresholds. The vaccine either passes muster or it doesn't, objectively, and we don't know until actual science is done. We do know that lobbyists will try to sway regulators with bad data, and we know that political pressure to vaccinate the kids can add to that sway. I definitely have no clue how to interpret any data we'll be allowed to see, honestly I have so little clue I won't really care. Beyond my pay-grade.

my 2nd observation is that we're hoping to vaccinate kids against a strain that's basically beaten, when the entire globe is more concerned about a different strain (or set of strains). Redesigning the spike protein is supposed to be super-easy, so the reason must either be regulatory expedience or political. Still something to watch.
 
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Anti-vaxxers (which include the vaccinated spreading complete nonsense) are selfish monsters or complete rubes. The US sitting on its hands re vaccine mandates for months led to a massive slowdown in the vaccine rate, which is causing the present carnage. Positive incentives, like lotteries, prizes, etc didn't work enough, and now bodies are stacking up. None of the anti-vaxxers, or the anti-pro vaccination people have engaged at all, with my pointing out that hey COVID isn't the first public health thing the US or the world has ever dealt with. Measures far more draconic than COVID restrictions have been used, against the Spanish Flu, against AIDS, to make sure drug-resistant tuberculosis doesn't get out, etc.

If you force vaccination on someone, they are going to realise pretty quick, that they aren't magnetic or sterilised or about to die. The current anti-vaxxer hysteria is because they are whipping themselves up online, separate from vaccine information. No manner of studies produced about vaccine effectiveness will convince them, because they are in a silo of bullfeathers, that will sell them on horse paste. Going easy on them, and letting them dictate policy, and flaunt the rules all pandemic hasn't calmed them down, it's emboldened them. We need to shut that down.

My moderate, sensible position, is to force everybody who can safely get a vaccine to get one, or live in the woods. You guys are the pro-death radicals.
 
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Both x and y, in this case cause harms. It's the matrix under which those harms are perceived that matters.

And, more clearly, both x and y cause both probabilistic harms (or harms expressed when looking at aggregate data) as well as actual social harms.
You don't see how equating "taking a vaccine" and "voluntarily not taking a vaccine" as "both things that cause harm" is unhelpful, in terms of discourse?

Me using my fingers to type something online "causes harm" to me. It accelerates cell reproduction and thus long-term decay through aging. But positing it against something else (for example, that the words I type are hurtful, or rulebreaking, let's say) comes across as pedantic. When applied properly to the context of "inducing unnecessary fear about a vaccine" it becomes literally life-threatening misinformation to the casual reader.

Which is another problem inherent in the data set. We are not a reliable set in that thread topics coalesce along not only ideological lines. They will also align with the interpersonal, where commonly people will disagree on a posted thing simply because of who posted it (or the opposite). This effect is exaggerated in small communities like this, compared to real-life situations where such data modelling would actually be of use, in my opinion.
 
I note that Russia has now overtaken Peru in Covid-19 deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

5. Russia 200,625
6. Peru 199,060

and Vlad Putin has an election coming up.
Putin will have elections in 2024.
As for recent parliamentary elections, you are overestimating how much Russians are currently paying attention to the pandemics.
At the peak of deaths number, people are talking about lifting all remaining restrictions.
I highly doubt any significant number of people changed their votes because of current corona statistics.
 
You don't see how equating "taking a vaccine" and "voluntarily not taking a vaccine" as "both things that cause harm" is unhelpful, in terms of discourse?
I probably would, even if I am having a trouble parsing that sentence.

My x and y were "allowing people to take (or refuse) a vaccine" vs. "trying to force people to take a vaccine". My comment about aggregate harms vs. social harms might make more sense there.
 
According to the NYTimes, Florida is having a daily average of 376.4 Deaths.

In terms of all-time New York has 54,601 COVID Deaths (in large part from getting hit hard early)

Florida now has 51,892 COVID Deaths

2709 difference.

Using the daily average, Florida is now only 7.19 days away from passing New York. It might slow a bit, and New York is still having a few covid deaths which will extend the timeframe (which I didn't factor in). But Florida seems dead set on the third most COVID deaths, almost certainly within the next fortnight or month at most.

Also from Herman Cain awards. The faces of denial collection.

Spoiler :
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Most of these people are dead but didn't need to be.

Over 90 Thousand people like them are hospitalised right now in the US. The pictures above is merely 45 examples.
 
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This really could be our last gentle pandemic. We're really screwing up the trial run.
Generally, when humans face a new threat for the first time, they screw up the response. In some cases, like hurricane response, it takes multiple tries to see improvements.

This sudden worldwide pandemic is no exception. 200 countries with 200 different governments and 200 different healthcare capabilities all responded to a totally new event at the same time. What could go wrong? We are 18 months in; by the end of 3 years we should have a pretty good idea of how to do thigs better next time. I think we have done a pretty good job given the circumstances and despite the Trumpian wall of stupidity. "Everybody" thinks they know best and most are likely wrong or partly wrong. We are getting through it awkwardly but we are learning.
 
@Drakle apparently killings ones citizens is a successful political strategy in Florida.
 
@Drakle apparently killings ones citizens is a successful political strategy in Florida.

Seems to be.

DeSantis just appointed a new surgeon general and secretary of the state's health department, A member of America's Frontline Doctors. The crazier of the two similarly named organisations. The one that has a member who believes that STIs are caused by spirits and demons, and that aliens are running the government.

This guy isn't as openly a nutjob, but is still pro death.

But Ladapo quickly came under fire from critics for downplaying COVID-19 vaccines and for his association with the controversial group America's Frontline Doctors, which has promoted bogus "cures."

When asked by reporters about the emphasis that will be placed on vaccination, Ladapo said he plans to treat the vaccines like "any other preventative issue."

"Vaccines are up to the person. There is nothing special about them compared to any other preventative measure," Ladapo said.

"The state should be promoting good health, and vaccination isn't the only path to that. It's been treated almost like a religion and it's senseless," he said. "...We support measures for good health — vaccinations, losing weight, exercising, eating more fruits and vegetables, everything."

Ladapo has a public history of promoting unproven treatments for COVID-19, writing an op-ed in the New York Daily News in 2020 touting the drug hydroxychloroquine — which the World Health Organization has warned is not an effective prevention or treatment method for COVID-19. He also appeared with and praised America's Frontline Doctors, a group of pro-Trump health care workers that has spread misinformation about the pandemic.

Ladapo has also published several op-eds in the Wall Street Journal, including one in June questioning the safety of vaccines, and another just days ago entitled, "Vaccine mandates can't stop COVID's spread."

"I'm just really happy to be here in Florida working with Governor DeSantis and the leadership here in Florida to really think thoughtful and in a very positive way about our public health here in Florida," Lapado said Tuesday. "And frankly, hopefully set an example for other states around the country and maybe even further than that."

He should have his medical license revoked.

Edit - Florida ain't stopping

https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1441071490489856002

Florida Republicans now looking at rescinding measles & mumps vaccine requirements, while continuing to spread disinformation that the Covid vaccine isn't "proven to work"

This is where the 'experimental' vaccine bridgehead leaves. Going after the more established vaccines.

Florida needs a wall built around it, til it sinks into the sea.
 
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Oh, just so people know the right-wing talking about Florida, the deaths are Biden's fault for limiting supplies of the monoclonal antibodies last week.
Like, literally, the people I was talking to thought that "Florida is doing a pretty good job, except for Biden's interference with the monoclonal antibodies". The echo-chamber is insane.
 
For the first time since September 2020 today the glorious Autonomous City I live in has added no deaths, and the same can be said of nearly half the provinces of the country.

Of course, with a third of the country living in the homonymous province next door, that's not statistically that significant.
 
Re: motives

I’m not going to try and conceal my selfishness: I want people to get vaccinated so I don’t get sick either. Sure, I have a disposition towards other people also not getting sick too, but I have to look out for myself first.
 
I've never heard of that. You have a link?
I'd expect that this manifests way faster, and wouldn't be exactly long-term either.



As @Samson says: Useful, but too expensive (and complicated) on large scale.

Is there a good way to scale up the production of them? Getting vaccinated definitely seems like the better choice (I got vaccinated back in March and fully support it), but there are some people who will refuse to get vaccinated, and I feel like anything we can do to reduce people getting seriously ill and dying is beneficial.
 
Pleased to report that sometimes problems just solve themselves:

In 12 days, Queensland could lose one tenth of its police service - 1,200 officers suspended without pay for refusing to get their COVID jab.

Getting rid of the dumbest ten percent of cops could genuinely improve Queensland policing more than all other inquiries and reforms to date.
 
Funny how nobody is crying about the far more experimental monoclonal antibody treatment, but is about the vaccine.

Teaching your body to produce antibodies before you get infected, with very effective results. That's Bad

Giving your body antibodies from outside your body after infection, with results, but nowhere near as good as the vaccine. That's good.

Anyway the Biden Admin is expanding orders. But is also trying to make sure all states get a fair share, instead of Florida and co taking it all. Which is causing them to scream bloody murder.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/21/monoclonal-antibodies-covid-treatment-vaccines

The treatment also costs $2100 per dose, while the vaccine dose is like $20. So this focus on monoclonal treatment is way more expensive and less effective and limited supply, and the focus on it is killing people. The situation should be, everybody is vaccinated, and the few breakthrough cases are given this stuff. Instead the hordes of anti vaxxers are using it up, and the responsible vaccinated people are literally denied this threatment in some states.

Pleased to report that sometimes problems just solve themselves:

Getting rid of the dumbest ten percent of cops could genuinely improve Queensland policing more than all other inquiries and reforms to date.

I doubt that it will be 10%. Likely won't even be 1% unless the rot is deeper than I thought in the QLD police. But yeah this serves as a great side benefit, in getting rid of the worst people in various jobs.
 
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"Everybody" thinks they know best and most are likely wrong or partly wrong. We are getting through it awkwardly but we are learning.

I'm keeping a list of things I got wrong about covid. It's not insignificant at this point, and I feel like I'm still doing better than most people.
 
This is a moral indictment of the state of our world. It is an obscenity. We passed the science test. But we are getting an F in Ethics - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on inequalities in vaccines distribution.
 
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