The claim that only what actually happens is possible is in fact the tenant of determinism that leads incompatibalists to claim that free will does not exist. Anyone who understands determinism must admit that this is on some level true
No, that's a conclusion you can pretty much only* reach by committing the
modal scope fallacy. Suppose the laws of nature are L1, L2, etc., or collectively, L, and suppose they are deterministic. Let p be a true complete description of the universe at some past time and f be a true complete description of some future time. Then by the definition of determinism, the following are true:
Necessarily { if L and p, then f }.
L.
p.
Now what follows from these three statements? Only:
f.
What does
not follow is "Necessarily, f" - that inference would be the modal scope fallacy. Note that "only f is possible" is simply a restatement of "Necessarily, f".
* "Pretty much only" by committing the modal scope fallacy, I say, because one can of course commit bizarre non sequiturs and reach any conclusion whatsoever.
The multiple worlds interpretation is also an effectively indeterministic theory
No, it just has the qualitative feel of one, since only our perceptions of one universe at a time are integrated. After a quantum experiment, this-universe-me is unaware of what that-universe-me sees. But that doesn't mean the outcome was uncertain.
and Bohmian mechanics falls short of describing quantum mechanics.
Not sure that's a fatal objection. Maybe the theory awaits more development, or some supplementation.
So one can be pretty confident that the world is actually indeterminisic at its core. Following that, there is no reason to assume that a complex nonlinear system like the human brain is fully deterministic
But there is good reason to assume that the human brain is
largely deterministic. Otherwise we'd be dead. Evolution is a harsh mistress.
"Oh look, some berries! Hmm, everyone in my tribe who ate these berries, died. But they look so yummy! I know, I'll flip a shell. Clam side up, I eat them, ocean side up, I pass." That guy is not likely to have many descendants.
2) Determinism actually makes free will more meaningful than indeterminism (so is preferable anyway)
+1