Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

Who do you think will win in November?


  • Total voters
    101
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Uncommitted delegates doing a sit-in outside the DNC after being told last night there would be no Palestinian speaker, even with a vetted speech.

Harris/Walz giving a masterclass in losing gettable votes...
 
clear distinctions in this thread sometimes; numerous substantiated points with sourcing, and the response is tautology
It's clear to me, and to you, that the election couldn't have been stolen...except by the government itself.
this is so weak.
 
Uncommitted delegates doing a sit-in outside the DNC after being told last night there would be no Palestinian speaker, even with a vetted speech.

Harris/Walz giving a masterclass in losing gettable votes...

Do they have any say over the DNC schedule? Are you suggesting that Harris is personally wielding a veto over who can speak on the podium?
 
Do they have any say over the DNC schedule? Are you suggesting that Harris is personally wielding a veto over who can speak on the podium?

Yes, I assume the candidate has influence over the DNC speaker schedule and personally wields a veto over who can speak at the podium.

To be clear, it beggars belief that this call isn't coming from the top. If Harris wanted a Palestinian speaker there would be a Palestinian speaker. Word is that Harris has offered a "private meeting" but that's obviously a nonstarter.
 
What Warnock and Bernie said about Gaza would have been fine.
There was some similarity between what Warnock said and that statement that they released stating Harris' position, particularly the part about Israeli and Palestinian people both deserving peace and safety.
Tempering the message for the venue is acceptable to me. It's obviously silly to expect direct criticism of the nominee or the sitting President at the convention.
I agree with all that.
Actively lying in a way that undermines the actual movement for a ceasefire is not acceptable.
I don't see how that one statement undermines the ceasefire effort though. Maybe you're seeing something I'm not. In any case, the catch is that the line that is unacceptable to folks seems to me to be the line that she thought she had to deliver for the sake of supporting the cause.
I disagree btw that supporting Biden (which i thought was good politicking, again unlike many others) left AOC in a position where she "needed to make up ground" within the party at all. AOC's support for Biden only cemented her as a loyal Democrat.
As I said before, I agree it was good politics for AOC to support Biden and that it helped establish her credentials as a loyal Democrat. My instinct however, was that it miscalculated Pelosi being able to successfully persuade Biden to withdraw.

As you know, I didn't think Biden would be able to put his own ego/ambition aside and bring himself to drop the ring. I also felt that the hope folks had for Harris, the DNC, etc., to bite it off his finger was too tall an order. Well apparently I was wrong on both counts, particularly that I didn't imagine Pelosi being the agent of the switch.

I tend to thing AOC was thinking along the same line that I was, specifically that we were stuck with Biden, period, and she was making the political best of that. However, once Biden withdrew, she had to show that she was onboard with the change somehow... and I think this speech was part of the somehow.
It looked to me like an attempt to prevent future attacks of the type that were successful against Bowman and Bush: namely that they "opposed Biden's agenda" by voting against some of his signature legislation (symbolically, from the left, assured of its passage, but this doesn't matter to the average Democratic primary voter).
Again, I agree.
I'm not "counting AOC out"
Well that's a relief ;)
 
I don't see how that one statement undermines the ceasefire effort though.

Because the movement needs to pressure Kamala into actually working for a ceasefire, which is not currently what's happening. Saying that Kamala is working tirelessly toward a ceasefire invites the question of why people were outside protesting the DNC. I mean, I've been seeing liberals use this same line all over the place as an attack on the protesters: "what more do they want, Kamala/Biden are already working on a ceasefire". It isn't true and anyone actually wanting a ceasefire shouldn't say it.

As I said before, I agree it was good politics for AOC to support Biden and that it helped establish her credentials as a loyal Democrat. My instinct however, was that it miscalculated Pelosi being able to successfully persuade Biden to withdraw.

As you know, I didn't think Biden would be able to put his own ego/ambition aside and bring himself to drop the ring. I also felt that the hope folks had for Harris, the DNC, etc., to bite it off his finger was too tall an order. Well apparently I was wrong on both counts, particularly that I didn't imagine Pelosi being the agent of the switch.

I tend to thing AOC was thinking along the same line that I was, specifically that we were stuck with Biden, period, and she was making the political best of that. However, once Biden withdrew, she had to show that she was onboard with the change somehow... and I think this speech was part of the somehow.

I don't think AOC's position was based on certainty that Biden would remain in the race. She didn't need to be certain of that - either way she would be increasing her credibility in the party by backing Biden until either the election or until he himself made the decision to drop out.

AOC also endorsed Harris full-throatedly on Twitter like shortly after Biden did so I think that was all that was needed to establish she was cool with it.

Incidentally, AOC facetimed in to the sit-in and tweeted last night that the DNC should have a Palestinian speaker so she's clearly still trying to thread the needle here instead of just throwing in her lot with AIPAC.
 
just watched the dnc walz speech. jesus christ he's rhetorically good. it's so unsurprising he's been energizing the moderates and undecided so much.
 
Because the movement needs to pressure Kamala into actually working for a ceasefire, which is not currently what's happening. Saying that Kamala is working tirelessly toward a ceasefire invites the question of why people were outside protesting the DNC. I mean, I've been seeing liberals use this same line all over the place as an attack on the protesters: "what more do they want, Kamala/Biden are already working on a ceasefire". It isn't true and anyone actually wanting a ceasefire shouldn't say it.
That seems like two distinct issues you're raising. One is whether the Biden administration has been somehow working on getting a ceasefire. It seems pretty clear, to me at least, that they have been doing so. There is reasonable disagreement on whether the efforts have been sufficient. Certainly, they haven't been successful so far, so that alone is a good argument that they haven't done enough, but I don't think its reasonable to say that they haven't tried. They've been involved in active negotiations for months, imposed sanctions, made speeches, issued vague threats, etc.

The second, is the claim that Kamala Harris was somehow personally involved with the ceasefire efforts, advocacy, negotiations, etc. That is a slippery one, because Harris and her campaign have certainly made public statements supporting and advocating a ceasefire, and she is part of the Biden administration, which has done the same. What role, if any, she personally played in hands-on negotiations, policy crafting, etc., seems unknown or at least less known, being generous. The less generous conclusion is that she didn't do jack-squat other than give it some domestic lip-service.

Additionally, within that second claim, there is an additional nuance, which is the "working tirelessly" phrase. Regardless of what actions, if any, that Harris took in furtherance of, or advocacy of a ceasefire, I would agree that the notion that she was "working tirelessly" for it, is laying it on thick at best, and just an outright lie at worst.
I don't think AOC's position was based on certainty that Biden would remain in the race. She didn't need to be certain of that - either way she would be increasing her credibility in the party by backing Biden until either the election or until he himself made the decision to drop out.

AOC also endorsed Harris full-throatedly on Twitter like shortly after Biden did so I think that was all that was needed to establish she was cool with it.
I don't know if a Twitter statement was enough. A primetime speech at the DNC , a nationally televised event was better, but even that may not be enough. I don't think we've seen the last of measures like this from AOC. She is trying to move up in the party.
Incidentally, AOC facetimed in to the sit-in and tweeted last night that the DNC should have a Palestinian speaker so she's clearly still trying to thread the needle here instead of just throwing in her lot with AIPAC.
"Threading the needle" I think is a perfect description of what AOC is trying to do, on numerous levels.
 
Are yall having fun watching the DNC? I haven't watched any of it yet. When does it end?
 
It seems pretty clear, to me at least, that they have been doing so.

Obviously, I disagree completely. A few months ago it was just possible to believe the administration was just naive about the Israeli government; now it is quite obvious that the ceasefire negotiations are, like the wider "peace process" before it, nothing but a fig-leaf to legitimize the status quo. In the case of the Oslo agreement this status quo was the indefinite Israeli occupation of the West Bank + Gaza and continuing expansion of settlements and terroristic violence against Palestinians; now it is the mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

As far as the current "ceasefire negotiations," the fact that Israel keeps adding conditions to each deal whenever it seems like there may be an agreement, and that the US then launders this goalpost movement by pretending the new conditions were part of the deal all along, is the dead giveaway. At the end of the day everyone knows Hamas will never agree to turn over the hostages without a guarantee of Israeli withdrawal and cessation of military activity in the Gaza strip, and Israel's current government is unwilling to do this. Its supporters are quite open on social media that they consider the deaths of all the hostages an acceptable price for the "destruction of Hamas" which is really a code phrase for the annihilation of the population of Gaza.

As far as Harris' personal involvement in all this that is imo irrelevant, Harris and Biden are still politically a package deal at this point.

I don't know if a Twitter statement was enough. A primetime speech at the DNC , a nationally televised event was better, but even that may not be enough. I don't think we've seen the last of measures like this from AOC. She is trying to move up in the party.

Like I said I'd not be surprised if she's eyeing a challenge to Hochul in '26.
 
Obviously, I disagree completely. A few months ago it was just possible to believe the administration was just naive about the Israeli government; now it is quite obvious that the ceasefire negotiations are, like the wider "peace process" before it, nothing but a fig-leaf to legitimize the status quo. In the case of the Oslo agreement this status quo was the indefinite Israeli occupation of the West Bank + Gaza and continuing expansion of settlements and terroristic violence against Palestinians; now it is the mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

As far as the current "ceasefire negotiations," the fact that Israel keeps adding conditions to each deal whenever it seems like there may be an agreement, and that the US then launders this goalpost movement by pretending the new conditions were part of the deal all along, is the dead giveaway. At the end of the day everyone knows Hamas will never agree to turn over the hostages without a guarantee of Israeli withdrawal and cessation of military activity in the Gaza strip, and Israel's current government is unwilling to do this. Its supporters are quite open on social media that they consider the deaths of all the hostages an acceptable price for the "destruction of Hamas" which is really a code phrase for the annihilation of the population of Gaza.
I agree that the US/Biden whitewashes Israel's goalpost moving, but I don't buy the notion that its a conspiracy of bad-faith. I think Netanyahu specifically is engaged in bad-faith and the US is being forced/pressured into backing their ally after the fact, to save face/avoid seeming foolish.
As far as Harris' personal involvement in all this that is imo irrelevant, Harris and Biden are still politically a package deal at this point.
That's a different take than what I thought most folks upset at AOC over the statement had. So you're giving equal credit/blame to Harris as Biden on Gaza? On a related note, what I'm hearing/reading is that some folks passionate about the Palestinian cause believe that Harris is likely to have a more favorable tone on the issue.
Like I said I'd not be surprised if she's eyeing a challenge to Hochul in '26.
Do you think she stops at Senate or do you think she will go for POTUS? If its the latter, do you think she needs a term as a Senator, or is that a risky waste of time/youth?
 
I agree that the US/Biden whitewashes Israel's goalpost moving, but I don't buy the notion that its a conspiracy of bad-faith. I think Netanyahu specifically is engaged in bad-faith and the US is being forced/pressured into backing their ally after the fact, to save face/avoid seeming foolish.

We have the power in this situation. We are not being "forced" into anything unless we are allowing ourselves to be.

That's a different take than what I thought most folks upset at AOC over the statement had. So you're giving equal credit/blame to Harris as Biden on Gaza? On a related note, what I'm hearing/reading is that some folks passionate about the Palestinian cause believe that Harris is likely to have a more favorable tone on the issue.

This is Harris' chance to set a different tone. She has utterly failed so far.

Do you think she stops at Senate or do you think she will go for POTUS? If its the latter, do you think she needs a term as a Senator, or is that a risky waste of time/youth?

Hochul is the governor of NY. She's quite unpopular for various reasons. I think getting some executive experience might be a more valuable stepping-stone for a hypothetical presidential run than being Senator.
 
But they were months ago, weren't they? :)
On that note... 538 now has Harris up 3.2% nationally. The last poll they include which shows Trump up (2%) was August 14th. All the poll since then have shown Harris up.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

RCP has Harris up 1.5%. Worth noting is that is being dragged down, pretty much solely at this point, by the weekly Rasmussen poll, which consistently has Trump ahead, most recently by 3% (with a 3% margin of error :ack:). The only other polls in the sample that have Trump ahead are FOX News (+1% Trump) and CNBC (+2% Trump) from August 4th. RCP drops pollsters prior results when they release a new poll so some recent polls are excluded from the sample because they are from duplicate pollsters.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
 
I think getting some executive experience might be a more valuable stepping-stone for a hypothetical presidential run than being Senator.
I think we will have a nominee soon that will leapfrog directly from just having a strong social media presence. It's a changed world.
 
I think we will have a nominee soon that will leapfrog directly from just having a strong social media presence. It's a changed world.
Saying this after Trump became POTUS is really kinda funny, my dude.

Also I don't know US history but I'm sure there were other wildcards in the past. Just in case you moan about Trump-bashing.
 
Is it likely that people in the US just were fed up with all the ancients (Hillary-Trump-Biden) and so Kamala has a real chance of a big win? If so - and if she does win - it will be interesting to see if anything will change, as she wasn't meant to be potus but just might.
 
Saying this after Trump became POTUS is really kinda funny, my dude.

Also I don't know US history but I'm sure there were other wildcards in the past. Just in case you moan about Trump-bashing.
Trump does have a business background. I am talking about someone who is purely a representative voice. Reagan was an actor turned politician. I see no reason we can't have a social influencer > president career track. I expect it. Meritocracy is dead. It is all identity now.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom