Gori the Grey
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You cited it as though it had validity.
Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!
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Worth noting, is that the most recent FOX News poll, which is included in the RCP aggregation, has Trump up by 2% nationally and along with Rasmussen of course are the only polls in RCP's aggregation to show Trump with the lead nationally for the past 30 days. Rasmussen is just propaganda, but as for FOX News, the way for the FOX poll to show a result that is so inconsistent with what all the other polls are showing, is for them to have some underlying source-data/respondents that is inconsistent with the other pollsters. So their results make sense, in that they would be better for Trump, with certain demographics, since they are better for Trump overall.Regarding the Fox poll, Kyr, you have to be a more discerning customer of polls.
That Fox poll surveyed registered voters. Particularly this close to the election, a poll is meaningless unless it polls likely voters (there are of course difficulties in ascertaining that, but some polls work to do so).
Right-leaning polling outfits have been flooding the media with polls designed to show a closer race than actually exists. When CNN does an equivalent exit poll after this election, Harris will match Biden's numbers with this demographic.
The article's presentation of the data is also designed to be misleading. The poll is a Fox poll, but the write-up starts by citing two earlier CNN polls, to give the impression that the key numbers here come from a CNN poll as well.
It also includes this little nugget:
And that leads one to wonder what question they asked that showed a Trump lead.
And when you start following the links, you get this little tidbit:
So the Fox news poll was disastrous news for Trump, and Newsweek poked around in it for some datapoints that could then be phrased to Trump's advantage.
Another bit of trivia, is that when I looked at RCP this morning, the latest Rasmussen poll they were counting had Trump tied with Harris and the FOX News poll had Trump up by 2%. However, since this morning, RCP has changed that to Rasmussen showing Trump up 2%. I don't know if that means RCP just posted the wrong number and corrected it, or if Rasmussen adjusted their figures mid-day but if I had to guess, I'd say its the former, because the last 4 Rasmussen polls have put Trump with a 2% lead. Again, Rasmussen isn't credible, but they have been consistent, showing Trump at either 49% or 48% with Harris at a corresponding 2% behind, at either 47% or 46% respectively.
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Gori the Grey
The Poster
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I have no idea what their reputation is at present. At one time, the were one of two weekly news-magazines that nearly every American household subscribed to (back when news moved by the week, not by the minute). But partisanship isn't the only reason why a media outlet (are they even a magazine any more?) might cite junk polls, comb polls for surprising bits of data and write their articles to play up the surprising bits of data.
It's a form of click-bait. Interest in, and anxieties about, the election draw readers, so if you can make it feel 1) like a a horse-race and 2) like you've got some angle on who is going to edge ahead in that horse race, you'll draw readers.
Farm Boy
I hope you dance
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Gambling is both addictive and destructive when dominant. I'd guess, this is similar.
There is a popular realm of thought that includes both personal investment in and no personal agency over the outcome. Therein lies sickness and madness if one is to dwell there.
There is a popular realm of thought that includes both personal investment in and no personal agency over the outcome. Therein lies sickness and madness if one is to dwell there.
Zardnaar
Deity
What the polls are showing is Harris should win but don't be to surprised if Trump does.
538 is OK I woukd be looking at the best 3-5 polls though. Say the most reliable 2016 onwards ones.
Trump could also get a last minute surge a'la 2016.
538 is OK I woukd be looking at the best 3-5 polls though. Say the most reliable 2016 onwards ones.
Trump could also get a last minute surge a'la 2016.
SemiLazyGamer
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Elon Musk backed Super PAC is micro targeting American Muslim and American Jewish folk with opposite Harris-Isreal Messages.
www.404media.co
This Is Exactly How an Elon Musk-Funded PAC Is Microtargeting Muslims and Jews With Opposing Messages
The Future Coalition PAC is targeting according to ZIP code in highly specific ways.
www.404media.co
Zardnaar
Deity
Elon Musk backed Super PAC is micro targeting American Muslim and American Jewish folk with opposite Harris-Isreal Messages.
This Is Exactly How an Elon Musk-Funded PAC Is Microtargeting Muslims and Jews With Opposing Messages
The Future Coalition PAC is targeting according to ZIP code in highly specific ways.
Seeing that elsewhere.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Looking today at polls about this election. I totally disbelieved the polling that claimed Turmp was behing Biden, first, and Harris, later.
And look how, as the moment of truth approaches, one that cannot be gamed away with media narratives, the polls quickly invert and place Trump ahead.
Trying to create "momentum", with biased polling numbers, is an old trick. It's also one that usually only works in elections with newcomers, unknowns, as candidates. This is an 8 years long tribal fight and Harris wasn't new, she was VP. It would never work. Now the polling companies are quiting the effort and trying to salvage something of their already blackened credibility.
Either that or Harris is an even worse candidate than Hillary and scaring people away at a fast rate. Take your pick, it's either one or the other to explain the innversion of polls.
I rate them on par, HArris and Hillary, both awful, totally incapable politicians. I do think polling has systematically been biased agaisnt Trump, deliberately so. Not mistaken. Biased. And this inversion three weeks from the election is the game being given up on already. The only thing that can come between Trump and office now is a bullet. It has been show that there are people willing to try that. That is the entrace to a very now path towards coups, secession or civil war. Very hard to turn around once in it. So beware what your tribe wished for.
And look how, as the moment of truth approaches, one that cannot be gamed away with media narratives, the polls quickly invert and place Trump ahead.
Trying to create "momentum", with biased polling numbers, is an old trick. It's also one that usually only works in elections with newcomers, unknowns, as candidates. This is an 8 years long tribal fight and Harris wasn't new, she was VP. It would never work. Now the polling companies are quiting the effort and trying to salvage something of their already blackened credibility.
Either that or Harris is an even worse candidate than Hillary and scaring people away at a fast rate. Take your pick, it's either one or the other to explain the innversion of polls.
I rate them on par, HArris and Hillary, both awful, totally incapable politicians. I do think polling has systematically been biased agaisnt Trump, deliberately so. Not mistaken. Biased. And this inversion three weeks from the election is the game being given up on already. The only thing that can come between Trump and office now is a bullet. It has been show that there are people willing to try that. That is the entrace to a very now path towards coups, secession or civil war. Very hard to turn around once in it. So beware what your tribe wished for.
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Zardnaar
Deity
Polls weren't biased they fluctuate.
538 on October 18th has Trump with 51% odds and Kamala with 49%.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Election is in 18 days!
ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Election is in 18 days!
To accept any swing state polling as fact shows poor judgement. Polling is a systematic guess that is usually off and in close races, being off can mean being wrong. What we do know is that Harris will likely win the popular votes and the electoral college will decide the next president. Opinions are cool and all, but which of you would put $500 on today's polls or your opinion?
Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 1% in polling on October 18th, 1980.
Zardnaar
Deity
538 interesting I would be looking at the better polls. Those being the more reliable on election day 2016-22.
The polls are telling us Trump can win.
Our course he can win, but it won't be with the popular vote. If he wins it will be from some combination of swing states. If Harris wins, she will have both.
Sephi
Deity
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The popular vote does not matter. What matters a lot more is money. Seems that Harris has better funding but also already spend a lot more than Trump.
www.forbes.com
polls are only snapshots in time, not predictions what happens in November. Trump always uses most of his campaign money at the end. Seems like it will be a close race to the end like 2020.
Trump Vs. Harris Fundraising Race: Harris’ Biggest Campaign Fund Takes In Nearly Twice As Much As Trump’s Committees
Harris' campaign has reportedly already raised $1 billion since she entered the race.
www.forbes.com
SemiLazyGamer
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Back to Elon Musk, Musk's Super PAC is funding a scam called Project 2028, which claims Harris plans to do the things the right claims the left wants to do, like giving undocumented immigrants Medicade.
www.opensecrets.org
Pro-Trump dark money network tied to Elon Musk behind fake pro-Harris campaign scheme - OpenSecrets News
An initiative called Progress 2028 that purports to be Kamala Harris’ liberal counter to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025…
www.opensecrets.org
Zardnaar
Deity
Aware. Popular vote doesn't matter.
I'm assuming he loses popular vote win or lose.
Back to Elon Musk, Musk's Super PAC is funding a scam called Project 2028, which claims Harris plans to do the things the right claims the left wants to do, like giving undocumented immigrants Medicade.
Pro-Trump dark money network tied to Elon Musk behind fake pro-Harris campaign scheme - OpenSecrets News
An initiative called Progress 2028 that purports to be Kamala Harris’ liberal counter to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025…
It's not about facts it's about emotion.
Gori the Grey
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A good sign of how toxic Project 2025 has (rightly) been made within the larger cultural discourse: the right now thinks it can blacken its opponents with a similar sounding thing!
The principle you cite here is correct, but you're applying it to the wrong candidate. The polling universe is presently being flooded with junk polls to try to give the impression that Trump is closer in the race than he in fact is (so that his voters don't just throw up their hands and fail to vote).
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