Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Manfred Belheim]

Seriously, you're grasping at straws so much it's embarassing...

Oh don't be such a drama queen. It isn't worded as a pledge or a promise. Yes, it's dishonest to hint or suggest that you will do something only to backpedal on it, but this is what happens in every election ever so people should really be used to this by now and should be sceptical. It's not unreasonable to expect voters to approach these things critically and not get taken in by transparent rhetoric. Anything that isn't specifically stated as a pledge or a promise is essentially meaningless and anyone over the age of 12 should be aware of this by now. And in this case moreso than ever given that the Tory party are notoriously anti-NHS and anti-nationalisation in any form.

Also, it's certainly not grasping at straws to state that Boris Johnson has no direct political power or any remit to make such a promise. He was not speaking for the whole government and is not and never has been the Prime Minister or leader of the party. So even if you genuinely believed he meant his "promise" then you should know that he has no power to implement it. Remember that the referendum was not a vote for him or his party, it was a vote to express a desire to either leave or remain in the EU, nothing more.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

It wasn't a promise. They never said "We promise." It was always only a noncommittal "let's".

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Borris Johnson's poster may not be legal promise but it is what the government will now be judged against. This will be especially true if Andrea Leadsom, Brexiteer, wins the election to be prime minister by the conservative party membership, most of whom support Brexit.

I have no problem with the government being judged for not following through with it, but I still think anyone who took it as a concrete pledge is an idiot.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

It wasn't a promise. They never said "We promise." It was always only a noncommittal "let's".

Yeah, plus all the other stuff I said which you ignored.

 

[Traitorfish]

The former. I'm not going to speculate on the insight of the "typical voter".

Well, could you speculate on the intentions of the Leave campaign when they approved the copy for the poster? Did they intend it only as jolly speculation- "why, the things we could do with all that money"- or do you think they realised it would be understood, if not quite a blood-oath, then at least a sincere statement of intent?

 

[Mise]

He didn't swear on his nan's grave either.

 

[Lexicus]

Is all this nonsense Manfred spewing just a psychological device to avoid admitting to himself and us that voting Leave was probably a dumb idea?

 

[FriendlyFire]

That doesn't mean any and all UK laws shaped by EU policy in the last 40 years need to be repealed instantly.

The funny thing is the EU laws that UK want to repeal is the minimal holiday and max workhours regulations, Would be better to focus on more work productivity like the Germans.
Though to be fair, UK did find itself wanting to make changes to some EU laws and finding themselves blocked by the French.

 

[aelf]

the Guardian had a story just recently about someone who voted Leave simply to spite the Government and share his pain around. I can't imagine he's the only one unfortunately.

Isn't that literally the position Manfred has been advocating for all thread?

 

[Mise]

Also, it's certainly not grasping at straws to state that Boris Johnson has no direct political power or any remit to make such a promise. He was not speaking for the whole government and is not and never has been the Prime Minister or leader of the party. So even if you genuinely believed he meant his "promise" then you should know that he has no power to implement it. Remember that the referendum was not a vote for him or his party, it was a vote to express a desire to either leave or remain in the EU, nothing more.

It was an official Leave campaign poster. It was a poster that spoke for the entire Leave campaign, including current members of government and Tory MPs. It wasn't just Boris Johnson who endorsed this message; he merely had the misfortune of being in shot at the time.

 

[EnglishEdward]

We've had most of the grieving process from Remain by now,

Thank you.

so it remains to be seen if and when Leavers start getting 'buyer's remorse' in large quantities.

I've had buyer's remorse for much of the time since voting to stay in the EEC in 1975.

As Silurian said, the Tories are going to have an uphill struggle getting reelected unless Brexit really does lead to the mythical land of milk, honey and EU-free goodness.

In my mind the future is not at all rosy for either the United Kingdom or the EU.
Much of the growth over the last 25 years went to China. Much of the growth over the
next 25 years is in my opinion likely to go to China, India, Africa and (if Luiz can sort
out Brazil) to South America. This has little to do with Brexit, albeit that will simplify
decision making for UK & EU. The best that we can hope for may be a more equitable
restructuring of society during near zero growth (comparison here is Japan since 1990).

I rather think that it is Labour as the pro Remain party that are going to be in trouble.

I remember the Liberals went into the 2015 general election as the most pro EU
party and got hammered the most. This is why I do not think that it is appropriate
to regard the Leave vote as an anomaly.

Remain voters may think that people voted to Leave on the basis of simplifications and
exaggerations (I prefer not to use the term lie), and therefore implicitly that Remain
should have won; but it is arguable that just as many people voted to Remain
based upon fear and appeals to authority, the advice from self interested experts.

The impact of the high profile participants is interesting.

For instance Michael Gove argued well in Parliament, but as most do not
watch that often, I doubt that had much impact on the vote.

Blondie Boris Johnson probably did swing a good few votes to Remain.

For all his faults David Cameron was, compared to John Major and Gordon Brown,
a popular Prime Minister who it is difficult to say is mistrusted or hated and it
is difficult for me to see that many voted Leave as a protest vote against the PM.

I think that Jeremy Corbyn certainly bolstered the Remain vote.

As for Nigel Farage, his contribution was two fold.

Firstly he led UKIP to win many MEP seats and Secondly he threatened to win votes
off the conservatives to the point at which David Cameron felt obliged to promise to
hold a referendum largely to avoid further attrition of the conservative voting base.

But for the UK referendum on the EU itself, his contribution was negative.

The people who voted Leave did not do so because of him. I am 60 and older than
him but find his style old fashioned (rather like that of car salesmen 30 years ago)
and reminiscent of those now in their 80s. I think that his style scared off many
liberal and metropolitan and younger voters into voting for Remain. How can I put
this politely. Probably not at all. So brutal it is. If he had stepped in front of the
Clapham omnibus last Christmas, the Remain vote would've been much smaller.

 

[Akka]

Oh don't be such a drama queen. It isn't worded as a pledge or a promise.

The fact that you're nitpicking about technicalities of "what's strictly speaking a promise or not" is what makes you grasping at straws.
You perfectly understand what everyone means, you're trying to win points for Internet style. It's not fooling anyone.

 

[Verbose]

In my mind the future is not at all rosy for either the United Kingdom or the EU.
Much of the growth over the last 25 years went to China. Much of the growth over the
next 25 years is in my opinion likely to go to China, India, Africa and (if Luiz can sort
out Brazil) to South America. This has little to do with Brexit,

There would have been considerably LESS growth in Europe in the last 25 years without the EU. Which is why odds are on there being less growth without, or outside, the EU in the coming 25 years.

And yes, Brexit has very little to do with that. The EU otoh has. For all the pains of the Euro, democratic deficit and general argy-bargy about what Brussels should or should not (be able to) do, the common market works surprisingly well. It's not that the EU is particularly clever in that way — it is however, BIG, and size matters in these circumstances.

 

[Silurian]

Not sure how far this actual challenge will get and the second possible proscecution for the £350 million" claim will get.

From The Guardian

The first legal attempt to prevent the prime minister initiating Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union is to be heard later this month.

A high court judge, Mr Justice Cranston, has set 19 July for a preliminary hearing of the judicial review challenge brought on behalf of the British citizen Deir Dos Santos.

The claim argues that only parliament – not the prime minister – can authorise the signing of article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which begins the UK’s formal withdrawal process.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...prevent-brexit-preliminary-hearing-article-50

And

From Anthony Eskander

Conclusion

As rehearsed herein, the relevant facts and the proper inferences that can be drawn from those facts, gives rise to the potential conclusion that Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and others on the board / committee of Vote Leave have committed offences of misconduct in public office or conspiracy to commit misconduct in a public office. The Crown Prosecution Service would have jurisdiction to prosecute in such circumstance.

Even if the above analysis is correct, it is not to say that a prosecution is inevitable; the CPS may take a different view, or decide that it is not in the public interest to prosecute. If a decision is made not to prosecute, there could be non-criminal ramifications, such as members of Vote Leave being questioned as part of a public inquiry or by a Parliamentary Select Committee.

Finally, there is a possibility that a decision is made to hold a second referendum, it being a potential remedy to any injustice served by Vote Leave misleading the public.

‘The views and opinion expressed herein are the Author’s own’

Anthony Eskander

http://churchcourtchambers.co.uk/sh...um-propaganda-an-article-by-anthony-eskander/

 

[Arakhor]

Isn't that literally the position Manfred has been advocating for all thread?

If that is true, I've either not noticed or simply forgotten.

Thank you. ... I remember the Liberals went into the 2015 general election as the most pro EU party and got hammered the most. This is why I do not think that it is appropriate to regard the Leave vote as an anomaly.

I don't know why you're thanking me, but don't you think that much of the ire towards the Lib Dems was based on their pledge not to raise university tuition fees, followed by that exact thing after their unseemly haste to jump into bed with the Tories?

 

[aelf]

If that is true, I've either not noticed or simply forgotten.

In response to the notion that the EU has produced a net benefit for the UK economy, his reply was that he knew people who voted for Brexit because they didn't actually get any share of the benefits anyway.

And then, when confronted with the fact that the benefits for the working class that were promised by the Leave campaign would not materialise, he shrugged them off as promises that no one would foolishly believe anyway.

So the only logical position left to his idea of Brexit, which he has defended throughout, is one where people simply voted for it "to spite the Government and share their pain around".

 

[EnglishEdward]

I don't know why you're thanking me, but don't you think that much of the ire towards the Lib Dems was based on their pledge not to raise university tuition fees, followed by that exact thing after their unseemly haste to jump into bed with the Tories?

No doubt some of the ire reflected against the Liberal democrats in 2015 was about
raised tuition fees, but they were not raised by a Liberal democratic government,
they were raised by a coalition government of which the Liberals were the junior partner.

The Liberals got quite a lot out of the coalition, commitments to foreign aid,
raising threshold for tax and a referendum for the alternative vote system.
Yes the fee rise 4 years before played a part, but I think EU stance more critical.

Furthermore IIRC the Liberals lost a lot of seats to the Conservatives who were
euro-sceptic, and fewer seats to Labour who were softly pro EU.

 

[Arakhor]

Well, if that's true, that just goes to show that some people still have not worked out what the Tories in power generally mean to the country as a whole. Ongoing austerity, in some cases so bad that a UN committee expressed "serious concerns", further cuts to social welfare and community services, as well as increased measures to make claiming JSA, benefits and so on as seemingly onerous as possible.

Yes, we had a recent 50p increase in the national minimum wage recently and there's the fuss about SportsDirect, but there's still been no action on zero-hour contracts and then of course there was George Osborne's amazing idea to counteract corporate flight in a post-Brexit world by slashing corporation tax to one of the lowest rates in Europe. How that is going to be paid for is anyone's business, but somehow I doubt it will be remotely good for soaring inequality in the UK.

So, yeah, if people are voting for the next Government based purely on whether they will be delivered from that nasty European Union and apparently couldn't care less about what will in this country, then they need to have a really good look at themselves before stepping into a polling booth again.

 

[Takhisis]

But corporations are people too
UK did want to have 0 deficits by 2020, but the brexit torpedoed that plan

Must negative deficit. Only way.

See above. Some of it would stop automatically, hence my reply to Edward - UK will most likely have to declare it applicable by itself.
Much (directives) would continue to apply because it has been transposed into UK law.
Lets not even get into international agreements where UK is part of by virtue of being part in EU, because that is getting awfully murky.

ye Olde facepalme

Farage is surely a passionate supporter of the Alternative Vote and other such electoral reforms.

But then he wouldn't be getting protest votes, because people can actually vote the Greens.

I am not entirely sure that there are as many as 12,000 regulations currently
in force. I suspect that some may have expired and others amend others.

Has anyone seen a definitive list.?

Given that neither the government (who are supposed to exercise their duty whether the UK is part of the EU or not) nor the Leave campaign made any plans whatsoever, I doubt they know.

That doesn't mean any and all UK laws shaped by EU policy in the last 40 years need to be repealed instantly.

Eh… What happens if, as Yeekim says, the UK is a signatory of a treaty only indirectly, as part of the EU? What if an EU rule/regulation/whatever was applied directly by the courts without it ever having an Act of Parliament for that issue?

In practice you can apply doctrines such as estoppel, but it's tricky at best.

The very definition of (mindless) populism.

Cannot be. Only leftists are populists.

 

[Ajidica]

I saw Theresa May talking about how she wouldn't plan on holding a general election until 2020. Is it me, or does that seem like a really long time given how divisive Brexit negotiations are inevitably going to be. I get that Labour's been so busy collapsing they haven't really had time to get into the post-Brexit debate but negotiating your way out of a 40 year union with serious political, financial, and social long term ramifications seems like something you would want a unity/ coalition government for rather than a party lead by a leader who didn't receive a mandate in the general election.