Let's Make a CFC-OT US Presidential Election Map 2012!

[Dreadnought]

Another thought: these poll results come at the perfect time for Romney; he gets a bounce of self-confidence going into the debate.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Another thought: these poll results come at the perfect time for Romney; he gets a bounce of self-confidence going into the debate.

He'd better do well.

 

[madviking]

madviking's theorem: Virginia is the new bellwether state.

 

[Antilogic]

New Hampshire + 15% for Obama is pretty unexpected. The others are fairly accurate from my point of view.

New Hampshire has the dual problem of having a small and fickle population as well as being less frequently polled than the other swing states. I think I've seen a 20 to 25 point range in this race from New Hampshire alone.

Nonetheless, the majority of the polls give Obama the lead there.

madviking's theorem: Virginia is the new bellwether state.

This may not be far off. Ohio has been starting to lean Democratic, kind of like Pennsylvania was, but with the reapportionment of EVs from the Northeast the Democrats will need more to push them over 270. I could believe that Ohio becomes a lean-D state and Virginia becomes one of the perennial tossup states in 20 years time.

 

[Dreadnought]

A sensitive Obama video is being released tonight. From my point of view, of course, it at least sounds worse than the Romney one.

 

[Cutlass]

I've heard it's the old Rev Wright stuff. Nothing new.

 

[JollyRoger]

2008 called - it wants its failed attacks back.

 

[Frozen In Ice]

That video was a very weak attack. The supposedly controversial parts didn't seem controversial at all to me (Obama was stating a rational line of reasoning behind what he said), and the Rev Wright issue has already been put down and buried for 4 years now. So unless you think Obama talking in a funny accent to pander to base is a huge deal, this shouldn't be compared to an insult of 47% of the electorate at all.

EDIT: Obviously I'd prefer if there was no pandering at all, but in the grand scheme of things it isn't a big deal. The accent is as big of a deal as Romeny's Y'all and Grits comments.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Post it in the thread!

I wanna see it, but I'm too busy to Google it right now.

 

[Frozen In Ice]

I'm assuming this is all of it.

 

[AlpsStranger]

That's it? That's their answer to the 47 percent

So he's talking "black" to his audience and brings up his left wing black preacher?

 

[Dreadnought]

 

[Antilogic]

Seems like this video stuff deserves a separate thread--we won't be seeing its effect (if any) in the polls until later, and there's that whole debate thing that will be moving numbers.

 

[AlpsStranger]

As many of you know, the combined forces of Drudge and Fox (and the Daily Caller) began trumpeting earlier today a major scoop: an earth-shaking, election-altering, Obama bombshell. Tune in tonight, etc.

Well now the story is out: “Obama’s Other Race Speech” is the headline at the Daily Caller and at Drudge, with Drudge teasing: “THE ACCENT… THE ANGER… THE ACCUSATIONS… THE SERMON…”

The breathlessness of the rollout seems to be predicated on the fact that even though the speech was given during the Democratic primary season in 2007 — mixed in among the endless loop of speeches, debates and forums that Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and others were doing at the time — the press missed it. Just totally ignored this racially charged speech one of the leading contenders gave the first week of June at a ministers conference at historically black Hampton University in Virginia.

But the Associated Press covered the speech. Brian Williams mentioned it that night on his NBC News broadcast. Maureen Dowd referred to it the next day in her New York Times column.

As for the new “revelations” themselves, they’re a reheated casserole of Rev. Wright, Obama talking black, and the shocking claim that the Bush administration’s indifference to the plight of New Orleans post-Katrina might in part be driven by racial bias.

Welcome back to 2008.

A good summary of my reaction.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Hey Republicans, Intrade suddenly matters now:

Cue people who shrugged it off when it was going up suddenly touting it now in 3... 2... 1...

Jokes aside, I think it's probably a cold feet reaction before the debates. Romney, as the challenger, is almost certain to get at least a small boost.

 

[Dreadnought]

Hey, a 1.5% boost may be all he needs to win the big one.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Hey, a 1.5% boost may be all he needs to win the big one.

On the other hand, if he fails to get much of a boost I think we can call the election.

 

[downtown]

Todays Polls:

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (WSJ/NBC/Marist)

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (WSJ/NBC/Marist)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (WSJ/NBC/Marist)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 39% (Zogby)

Wisconsin: Obama 53%, Romney 42% (Marquette Law)

Looks like Romney is giving up on Ohio and focusing on VA, where they have closed the gap a little bit.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Looks like Romney is giving up on Ohio and focusing on VA, where they have closed the gap a little bit.

Do I live in an honest to <politically correct deity of your choice> blue state now?

If Romney concedes Ohio he's going to have to really blow it out of the water everywhere else.

 

[Antilogic]

Hey, a 1.5% boost may be all he needs to win the big one.

Given that he is lagging in the RCP average in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire by more than 3 points (and in Florida by 2 points), he's going to need a little more than 1.5% to win.

The debate is probably Romney's last chance at a big campaign reboot, something he's been trying to do for weeks now and failing for one reason or another. He needs an outright win, and then needs to build momentum. The standard lower-expectations game, followed by a flood of surrogates praising his soundbites from the joint press conference with the president isn't going to cut it.