Machines taking over in 2045?

[Singularity]

I think machine intelligence will be so subtle and alien to our own that it will probably take a long time for us to even notice it once it's here. From our recognition of it to allowing it to grow and "breed" new artificial personas is a long way, and I don't think we will allow it to slip past our limited flesh and blood control of it.

The alternative would be the evolution of human/machine into something that's a species within it's own rights and capable of replicating without the need for biological reproduction or an existing infrastructure to service or facilitate it's reproduction. I'm also pretty doubtful that we'll allow something like this to evolve that far in a hurry. The inertia of our biological culture and metaphysical limitations that we impose on ourselves from religion and psychology will be a huge barrier that will take a much longer time to pass compared to the potential for the required technological research.

I think the only way we will see a true conversion from potential technological evolution and actual application of that tech into self aware machines or transhumans will be as a result of some form of sustained or warned crisis. So, unless the earth or humanity is doomed without the application of AI/transhuman research we will not see the rise of the machines before 2045 - and that's without even starting to theorise if we would have the academical and industrial muscle to reach such a technological level in only 34 years.

 

[Loppan Torkel]

And shame on you for using Watson as an example, it's almost as hollow an argument as mentioning CleverBot. It only serves to undermine your own position.

What's my position that would be undermined? I didn't say it was anywhere close to being 'aware' or anything. It's still impressive in its own.

If one was able to combine the advances in programming and robotics - what level of intelligence would you be able to simulate at the moment iyo? A dog, a parrot or a monkey?

 

[uppi]

Okay, time to do some basic math:
30 years are 20 18-month cycles. So Moore's law would predict a 2^20 increase in transistor count. To fit this on a chip, the structure size would have to decrease by a factor of sqrt(2^20) = 2^10 = 1024. Currently state of the art is 22nm structure size. So we would need to make a transistor with a size of 22pm. This is one tenth of the size of a silicon atom and less than the size of a hydrogen atom. Such a size is impossible in the near future.

The only way out would be a 3D design. But for that one would have to abandon the lithographic techniques that made Moore's law possible in the first place. So there would need to be the biggest revolution in semiconductor technology since the time Moore's law was formulated. Such a revolution is far from certain.

 

[Kozmos]

The only way out would be a 3D design. But for that one would have to abandon the lithographic techniques that made Moore's law possible in the first place. So there would need to be the biggest revolution in semiconductor technology since the time Moore's law was formulated. Such a revolution is far from certain.

Derp, I love when people ignore mah links http://io9.com/5832085/ibms-neurosynaptic-chips-are-the-closest-thing-to-a-synthetic-brain-yet

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Be it in 10 years, or 30, or 300 - no way there would be anything near even to a brain of a fly.

 

[Azash]

What's my position that would be undermined? I didn't say it was anywhere close to being 'aware' or anything. It's still impressive in its own.

If one was able to combine the advances in programming and robotics - what level of intelligence would you be able to simulate at the moment iyo? A dog, a parrot or a monkey?

First off, it was a general statement and not a reply at you. Awareness is very far removed from show-off machine learning like Watson. It's not that impressive in the end, just a set of algorithms that work out the connections between words. Robotics, for what it's worth, is just a field of programming applied to a physical mechanism, so you can just consider the advances in programming. The difference that needs to be made is between a proper simulation (doing exactly what a brain is doing) and heuristics (simple if-then-else behaviour patterns that are just meant to look convincing). A horse heuristic would not require exceedingly much effort to fool anyone not involved actively with horses. A full-on simulation is still impossible with modern technology and algorithms.

 

[Darkwind]

This is unlikely to happen as we will BECOME machine if computer can be that powerful.

Why would human still use such an inferior body when you already have hardware that does 1000 times better? I am pretty sure memory can be uploaded in some days not too far in the future, "thinking" or " Cognition" should not be impossible with hardware and software that are advance enough.

The advantage or transferring your brain/ cognition to a machine is immerse: you will never truly die, as you always have backup copies of yourself in other "hardrive" . You can have infinite backup bodies that you can "transfer" into. Light speed travel is now possible (just like transferring data).

For my own definition, as long as you can think and you have self awareness, you should be consider human already.

 

[Winner]

Why would human still use such an inferior body when you already have hardware that does 1000 times better? I am pretty sure memory can be uploaded in some days not too far in the future, "thinking" or " Cognition" should not be impossible with hardware and software that are advance enough.

Memory upload - such a nice euphemism for killing yourself and copying some sort of an image of your brain into a computer

What makes us human is very much dependent on the chemistry that makes our biological bodies function. Transferring just your memory to a computer would be a small death in itself.

 

[Darkwind]

Memory upload - such a nice euphemism for killing yourself and copying some sort of an image of your brain into a computer

What makes us human is very much dependent on the chemistry that makes our biological bodies function. Transferring just your memory to a computer would be a small death in itself.

Well... I truly understand what you mean, its like, even when a machine can "cut and paste" you atom by atom in a place 10000 miles away; that new "you" is not the same person already. (Its like some of the teleportation device in sci-fic)

But my argument will be, when human advance to that level, our ethics and definition of "life" would also evolve. We may call this killing yourself, but it might be understood as "natural step" to the next level of life.

A lot of religion today also talks about life after death/resurrection/ Ascension kind of idea; which is pretty similar. For all intend and purposes, an exact copy of you will be the same for your friends/ relatives/ work mate; it doesn't matter that you "die" or not die. It can also apply to a complete upload of your consciousness into a machine. (not just memory)

I really really really hope this can happen, as this is one of the only way that can give human everlasting life. (Dream of all kings and dictator since Civ exists XD)

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

But my argument will be, when human advance to that level, our ethics and definition of "life" would also evolve. We may call this killing yourself, but it might be understood as "natural step" to the next level of life.

If, someday, majority would start to believe that we live in Matrix, there's no way I gonna kill myself to check.

 

[Monsterzuma]

why would you kill the old "you" when uploading your mind to the computer? there is no need or incentive whatsoever for this.

 

[Darkwind]

why would you kill the old "you" when uploading your mind to the computer? there is no need or incentive whatsoever for this.

Well yes, there is no "need" to, your body will die and decay sooner or later, but the "online version" or you will never be gone.

Or.... the law in such an advance society may recognize that "uploaded" version as human being and you (the body) is just a hardware. By uploading your consciousness to the machine you also transfer all your rights as a human along with your consciousness. Hence the destruction of a body will not be killing, it is just like you changing your shirt.

It actually make sense as the uploaded version of you can think, communicate and "enjoy life" as much as your body do. Human rights and any laws associate with it should be applied to your "permanent" version and not the "temporary" body. If you assault another person, you should still be charged for damaging "property" of another person, but murder will never ever happen again unless you find a way to destroy all backup copies.

 

[El_Machinae]

I think the only way we will see a true conversion from potential technological evolution and actual application of that tech into self aware machines or transhumans will be as a result of some form of sustained or warned crisis.

Right now, 130,000 people are dying every day. That's a tremendous toll of human life. And some of these people are dying from something that's predicted to kill all of my loved ones. All of them, and me.

Once I perceived this as a sustained crisis, I couldn't unperceive it. I literally believe that it will be possible to end this crisis, which is why I so often ask for people's help in creating the solutions. (There`s a million ways to help, and all are appreciated)

The only way out would be a 3D design. But for that one would have to abandon the lithographic techniques that made Moore's law possible in the first place. So there would need to be the biggest revolution in semiconductor technology since the time Moore's law was formulated. Such a revolution is far from certain.

I think 'Moore's law' has become a metaphor. What *I* watch is the amount of processing power that's available per dollar. The better use we make of processing, the greater the market forces available to encourage new innovation, but I think there's (even then) a pretty strong reason to think that the *demand* for improved computing will last quite awhile.

Memory upload - such a nice euphemism for killing yourself and copying some sort of an image of your brain into a computer

I think it's theoretically possible to upload. In my opinion, it will require a gradual migration, where our conscious substrate is first 'shared' between biology and machine. But once that continuity of consciousness exists, the uploading can eventually be total. But, even if I am wrong, the minds that are metaphysically 'okay' with suicide in order to clone themselves into machines will be selected for, and will likely be able to outcompete those whose philosophies keep them in their meat.

 

[aelf]

I think it's theoretically possible to upload. In my opinion, it will require a gradual migration, where our conscious substrate is first 'shared' between biology and machine. But once that continuity of consciousness exists, the uploading can eventually be total. But, even if I am wrong, the minds that are metaphysically 'okay' with suicide in order to clone themselves into machines will be selected for, and will likely be able to outcompete those whose philosophies keep them in their meat.

What do you think about the soul? Do you think it exists and would complicate such a transition? I'm guessing no, but you might have a more nuanced answer.

 

[warpus]

But my argument will be, when human advance to that level, our ethics and definition of "life" would also evolve. We may call this killing yourself, but it might be understood as "natural step" to the next level of life.

You can call it what you want, but death is death.

There would be a way to accomplish transferring your memory onto some sort of an electronic device, though.. You do it in steps. First you augment your brain with an electronic component, and wait a while until it starts getting populated with data.. Then you augment a bit more, and more, until eventually.. maybe you can remove your real brain. That's the only way, really, unless you want to go down the death and/or clone route.

 

[Winner]

I think it's theoretically possible to upload. In my opinion, it will require a gradual migration, where our conscious substrate is first 'shared' between biology and machine. But once that continuity of consciousness exists, the uploading can eventually be total. But, even if I am wrong, the minds that are metaphysically 'okay' with suicide in order to clone themselves into machines will be selected for, and will likely be able to outcompete those whose philosophies keep them in their meat.

I am very fond of my meat, thank you very much. I want to smell the world, feel it, touch it, experience it as only a human can. I am all for improving my biological body, but would I want to abandon it and hope that the thing transferred to a machine will still be me? Only if I didn't have any other choice.

 

[SouthernKing]

Maybe we will be playing video games like this in the future:


Link to video.

 

[Kozmos]

The pace quickens my friends...

http://www.kurzweilai.net/breakthro...-that-communicate-directly-with-living-things

Breakthrough: proton-based chips that communicate directly with living things
September 21, 2011 by Amara D. Angelica
Proton communication

Biocompatible maleic-chitosan nanofibers (yellow) embedded in a field effect transistor. A potential difference applied across source and drain generates a proton current to flow along the maleic chitosan. A potential applied onto the gate modulates the proton current. This modulation occurs by inducing more or fewer protons onto the maleic chitosan via capacitive coupling. (Credit: University of Washington)

University of Washington scientists have just crossed another major threshold between humans and machines: they’ve built a transistor that uses protons instead of electrons.

Their ultimate goal: create devices that can communicate directly with living things certain biological functions that involve protons — eventually even control them — a “first step toward ‘bionanoprotonics‘.”

Yes, there are implants (such as cochlear implants and other prosthetics), but they are not chips, and they communicate using electrons, negatively charged particles. And electrons don’t interface well with living things, which use protons (positively charged hydrogen atoms) or ions.

In the body, protons activate “on” and “off” switches and are key players in biological energy transfer. They open and close channels in the cell membrane to pump things in and out of the cell (proton pumps in the stomach lining that turn on acid for example). The body also uses these protons to flex muscles and transmit brain signals. If a machine could sense proton currents, it could sense biological signals directly, and if it could generate proton currents, it could even control certain functions directly.

Chitosan: an interface between transistors and tissue

Turns out there’s a way to do that. “We found a biomaterial, chitosan, that is very good at conducting protons, and allows the potential to interface with living systems,” said Marco Rolandi, a UW assistant professor of materials science and engineering. The UW scientists incorporated chitosan in a prototype field-effect transistor (includes a gate, drain, and source terminal for the current). This is the first such device to use protons, they say. It measures about 5 microns wide, roughly a twentieth the width of a human hair, small enough to be implanted.

The UW device uses a modified form of chitosan (maleic-chitosan), which is created from chitin, the structural element in the exoskeleton of crustaceans (such as crabs and shrimp). The material is compatible with living things, is easily manufactured, and can be recycled from crab shells and squid pen discarded by the food industry. The researchers discovered that this form of chitosan works remarkably well at moving protons. The chitosan absorbs water and forms many hydrogen bonds; protons are then able to hop from one hydrogen bond to the next.

Applications in the next decade or so, Rolandi said, would likely be for direct sensing of cells in a laboratory. The current prototype has a silicon base and could not be used in a human body. Longer term, however, a biocompatible version that supports other types of ions (besides protons) could be implanted directly in living things to monitor — or even control — certain biological processes directly, the scientists say.

Brain implants and beyond

So what does this mean for implants for the brain and other organs? Well, imagine a new class of (hypothetical) biocompatible memristors that could be embedded — even woven into — neural circuits, sensing and supplementing neural functions, connected to computers. This could have major implications for treating neural disorders like Parkinson’s, for example, or rewiring around circuits damaged by stroke or Alzheimer’s, or for cardiac problems, or control of prosthetic devices connected to an arm or leg for quadriplegics, or to allow locked-in patients in a coma to communicate.

Further in the future, it may even allow for reverse-engineering the brain or uploading the brain to a computer. (There are also some scary implications — think remote mind control.) I’m just speculating here, but stay tuned, this is going to get really interesting….

Ref.: Chao Zhong, et al., A polysaccharide bioprotonic field-effect transistor, Nature Communications, 2011; [DOI:10.1038/ncomms1489]

UPDATE 9/21/2011 T 5:15 a.m. PDT: Marked text removed and diagram caption expanded.

 

[Dachs]

So, this thread is full of viewpoints from people I totally wouldn't have expected them from. Cool?

 

[El_Machinae]

What do you think about the soul? Do you think it exists and would complicate such a transition? I'm guessing no, but you might have a more nuanced answer.

Well, I don't believe in a soul. I do believe in the experience of continuity of consciousness (even if it's interspersed with sleeping). We believe in this continuity because it's familiar, I expect. So, the question of the soul will (imo) be answered by proxy, whether the consciousness can be maintained in a continued state while shifting around the substrates.

We already know that consciousness can be maintained while shifting around in a substrate, because we do this with our brains. Components of our consciousness are maintained in different neuroanatomical structures, and as we change what we're thinking, the physical focus of our consciousness changes. We know that the consciousness can spread into certain regions, because we can shift our attention there.

IF we hook up to machines that allow us to migrate consciousness between silicon and biological substrate, then we can experience migrating our consciousness to our satisfaction. If we actually cannot shift the location of our consciousness, then we won't feel like the uploading is working. It will offend our instincts, and we'll feel like it's not 'safe'.

I am very fond of my meat, thank you very much. I want to smell the world, feel it, touch it, experience it as only a human can. I am all for improving my biological body, but would I want to abandon it and hope that the thing transferred to a machine will still be me? Only if I didn't have any other choice.

That sounds like a hardware problem, which can be handled with a sufficient number of sensors!