Okay...so this means we're not making progress? I think you took my comment about the green zone the wrong way. It was an indictment about how we have generally handled the occupation phase of this war. IE: securing the green zone, and only securing the green zone, has illeffected the occupation EVERYWHERE ELSE! Anybody that knows anything about security knows that you can't box yourself in, and this is exactly what the Army did. The reason Marines were seeing improvements in Al Anbar BEFORE the surge happened because of their "take the fight to the enemy" approach to securing Al Anbar, and their approach with the local tribes. And keep in mind too, that the Marines had way less bodies to take control of WAY more area than the Army is responsible for.
You say, consider that 24% of attacks in Iraq are in Al Anbar. Okay, fair enough. Consider that it used to be over 50%. Consider that Al Anbar is by far the largest province and by far the hardest to secure for a number of geographic reasons.
I don't think that I left out that "Diyala has seen violence increase." My first post was:
The key will ultimately be in what happens when the fighting is done in the immediate provinces to the south and north of Baghdad. Will they simply scatter, and regather as they've done in the past? (First Fallujah, then Sadr City, then Fallujah again, then Samarah, then Ramadi, now Diyalla Province).
My concern for years has been our inability to keep insurgents from scattering, regathering, taking over new cities and villages, and resurging. This has been a pandemic cycle for years because we haven't had enough troops on the ground
And no, you need not remind me that the last three months have been the deadliest (towards American servicemembers.) From the outset of the surge Patreus said to expect more deaths. This is what happens when you go from a passive posture to an offensive one. What we were doing before was essentially sitting in little boxes. Insurgents have been setting up shop in suburbs and the outskirts of Baghdad, and then having a hay day in Baghdad. They commit their acts of violence, and then retreat back into the suburbs. Now we're hitting them in their strongholds. How are the civilians of Bagdhad doing? Despite on big surge about a month after the war, violence has tamed down quite a bit.
So far as numbers in the insurgency, do you have anything to back up numbers of 70,000?