Republican controlled senate means...?

[EgonSpengler]

Another (potential) effect of a Republican Senate could be a shift in the balance of economic growth vs. reductions in our carbon emissions. The pipeline from Canada has been talked about here already. Mitch McConnell has also said that the President has been "waging a war on coal", and represents Kentucky, a major coal mining state. House Speaker John Boehner was recently asked about reducing carbon emissions, and his answer was,

“Listen, I’m not qualified to debate the science over climate change, but I am astute enough to understand that every proposal that has come out of this administration to deal with climate change involves hurting our economy and killing American jobs.”

So I think the world can probably expect the United States to contribute more to carbon emissions over the next 6 years, in an effort to turn our economy around.

 

[luiz]

Keystone can reduce carbon emissions. Pipelines are a more carbon-efficient way of transporting oil than ships. And Canada's oil will be transported and used, Keystone or not.

 

[Whomp]

So a bunch of good news. Keystone, free trade agreement with Japan, end of automotive protectionism, authorization for crude oil exports. Great news for the US, and indeed the world.

I think a good chance of corporate tax reform in 2017. It doesn't sound like a one time tax on foreign cash (and then lower rates) will happen as some s are suggesting.

 

[Harv]

A Republican-controlled Senate means. . . .

the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be trading at [blank] on Election Day, 2016.

 

[Whomp]

Silly to guess at these things but why not. How about 21,675. It has more to do with current Wall Street negativity and breaking out of a 14 year sideways trend than anything related to government.

Corporate tax reform would elevate that number a fairly large amount.

 

[kramerfan86]

Nothing really will happen, McConnell will struggle to get much done between the looney end and the amount of Senators who will be gearing up presidential campaigns and as such wont be interested in sticking their necks out on any legislation. We have too many elections in america.

 

[Harv]

Silly to guess at these things but why not.

It is along the lines of who do you think will win the Superbowl in 2016, right?

How about 21,675.

Straight up 25% from current levels? Big year next year and consolidation year 2016?

It has more to do with current Wall Street negativity

You mean nobody believes Wall Street?

and breaking out of a 14 year sideways trend

I don't know if it is a 14 or 15 year sideways trend. The DJIA is up a compounded 3.6% over the last 15 years or so. This is more than the period of 1965-1980, right? Your number brings this up to 4.6% over a 17 year period.

But ya - 3.6% over such a long time feels flat.

than anything related to government.

I heard some rumors about Republican Congress and Democrat President being very good for the stock market. The last example of course, is Bill Clinton.

Or they say something about gridlock in Washington being good.

 

[Berzerker]

why are US politicians so eager to get Canadian oil onto the world market?

they're gonna ship that stuff south and right out of the country to China

 

[luiz]

why are US politicians so eager to get Canadian oil onto the world market?

they're gonna ship that stuff south and right out of the country to China

They want to refine it in Texas and Louisiana. If they then sell it to the world market it will be refined products, hence the US will make money on exports. Crude oil is just ~60% of the cost of refined products (in the US, less than that in most other places). So Canada won't keep all the money.

 

[caketastydelish]

The conservatives finally have both houses. Serves the left well after all the bullying and outright harassment they've put us through. God is in charge of the big house (planet earth) so he has used his righteousness to put the right in charge of both houses of American congress.

 

[kramerfan86]

The conservatives finally have both houses. Serves the left well after all the bullying and outright harassment they've put us through. God is in charge of the big house (planet earth) so he has used his righteousness to put the right in charge of both houses of American congress.

If God plays a role in selecting these ineffectual and corrupt people we have in congress he isnt much of an all powerful being.

 

[Antilogic]

I dunno, SOPA/PIPA wasn't really a partisan thing, there was a definite split here. PIPA was introduced by Pat Leahy.

I think that's why it will get a second hit, actually. It's something that corporate Democrats have signed onto previously, it's not A Big Issue from the culture war/Obamacare perspective, and it will give them a bill signing photo-op so they can pretend Washington Works Again.

Also re:impeachment I would be surprised if I tried. A lot of Republican leadership was around when they tried it on Clinton and it blew up horribly in their faces and realize it's a bad idea.

I think this is up to the post-2010 base and how much pressure it puts on the properly reluctant leadership. That lawsuit Boehner was going to file against Obama was supposed to release the pressure here, but two law firms have dropped it and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere.

I'm not convinced that the conservative leadership actually wants to stop abortion. The debate has been so profitable for them; why would they? Seems like they'd rather keep the debate going indefinitely, keep the Evangelical and right-wing Catholic votes flowing. You're a fan of Orwell, you should know how profitable the whole "eternal war" thing can be.

I'd argue this is another leadership-base disconnect. The red state legislatures have been pursuing this route very aggressively, clinics are being regulated out of existence all over the place. The national party is a bit more cautious around the issue likely for this calculation and because they have to worry about presidential years where the issue hasn't worked in their favor.

Besides, I think they are aiming for the Supreme Court route. If they win the presidency, they can stick another couple anti-abortion judges in, possibly replacing a staunch liberal like RBG. There is a clear route for this to happen without as many fingerprints.

Only in 1.5 branches, Ziggy!

...are you counting the Court or the President as a half?

So a bunch of good news. Keystone, free trade agreement with Japan, end of automotive protectionism, authorization for crude oil exports. Great news for the US, and indeed the world.

I thought the tariff rates are pretty low when compared to the historical averages. Much of the leaked info from negotiations involve patent and IP stuff, and some provisions that enable countries to overturn local regulations or sue for lost profits in a kind of international business court.

The conservatives finally have both houses. Serves the left well after all the bullying and outright harassment they've put us through. God is in charge of the big house (planet earth) so he has used his righteousness to put the right in charge of both houses of American congress.

Not sure if serious.

 

[bhsup]

The court, Anti, the court.

 

[Cutlass]

Another (potential) effect of a Republican Senate could be a shift in the balance of economic growth vs. reductions in our carbon emissions. The pipeline from Canada has been talked about here already. Mitch McConnell has also said that the President has been "waging a war on coal", and represents Kentucky, a major coal mining state. House Speaker John Boehner was recently asked about reducing carbon emissions, and his answer was,

“Listen, I’m not qualified to debate the science over climate change, but I am astute enough to understand that every proposal that has come out of this administration to deal with climate change involves hurting our economy and killing American jobs.”

So I think the world can probably expect the United States to contribute more to carbon emissions over the next 6 years, in an effort to turn our economy around.

This is American conservatives we're talking about. No group of people in the world is more opposed to making the American economy strong.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think that's why it will get a second hit, actually. It's something that corporate Democrats have signed onto previously, it's not A Big Issue from the culture war/Obamacare perspective, and it will give them a bill signing photo-op so they can pretend Washington Works Again.

Do you think there is any real desire to pretend Washington works on the part of the Democrats? I think they genuinely want it to work, but pretending that it works I think favors the Republicans, because they are taking the largest share of the blame for the fact that it doesn't. There has been some 'it's Harry Ried's fault' obfuscation, but now that they control the Senate they are going to have a much harder time ducking the blame.

If I were a Democratic party strategist I would be planning the next two years as a series of bills sent up by the Republicans with no yes votes from the Democrats. Then have Obama veto them and use the media access that comes with the Presidency to explain to the public why signing the bill would be a terrible idea (keeping in mind that the vast majority of what comes up the public will by and large have no clue about other than what he tells them). This paints a clear picture for 2016 that splitting the government is no longer viable and really strengthens democrats across the board in congressional races.

 

[onejayhawk]

The conservatives finally have both houses. Serves the left well after all the bullying and outright harassment they've put us through. God is in charge of the big house (planet earth) so he has used his righteousness to put the right in charge of both houses of American congress.

If God plays a role in selecting these ineffectual and corrupt people we have in congress he isnt much of an all powerful being.

Religion in a politics thread. Shame. Shame.

A Republican-controlled Senate means. . . .

the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be trading at [blank] on Election Day, 2016.

[NY Stock Exchange] and others.

I don't think it will be any better than the Democrats. The Obama Administration is deeply beholden to Big Banking. It has been hard to tell the parties apart on that scorecard. You get the irony of George Soros complaining about the Koch's.

J

 

[EgonSpengler]

This is American conservatives we're talking about. No group of people in the world is more opposed to making the American economy strong.

I guess people want to find out. I've read that Kansas had its bond rating cut by both Moody's and S&P and then re-elected the governor responsible for it. A senator in Georgia said that he was proud of having outsourced jobs overseas while in the private sector, and was also re-elected. Massachusetts elected a Republican as governor, albeit a moderate one, after being one of the states to best weather the recession with a Democrat in the "corner office."

 

[Kaitzilla]

Guess that government shutdown actually helped Republicans after all.

 

[JollyRoger]

They should do it again.

 

[gay_Aleks]

If God plays a role in selecting these ineffectual and corrupt people we have in congress he isnt much of an all powerful being.

Perhaps, in the end, after the countless prayers towards God to put an end to the godless left domination, He heard us.

But as they say, never actually beg your Almighty for anything. He might as well answer.