[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[saamohod]

More footage from within Kharkiv’s Epicenter, hit by Russian glide bombs yesterday. The airfield where there bombers are based is within range, but the United States prohibits Kyiv from using American weapons to strike it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794783869327053047

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

I can agree with that, but I'm afraid Putin is preparing a total (conventional) war, looking beyond Ukraine now.

There is no indication that Russia is planning anything after the consolidation of Donbas and eventually around to Odesa where there are a majority of Russian speakers. Any further incursion into regions without local support is unnecessary and fraught.

Instead, they can use other levers, especially when they have an enormous supply of resources that Europe needs. It was amusing to see so many German companies send delegates to China with Scholz. It's a way they can ensure reasonably stable supply chains for their products without overtly getting the essentials directly from Russia. Instead, they can get them indirectly from Russia via China. You would have to be naive to believe Macron hosted Xi because he was only worried about brandy tariffs. Or to think that all sanction breaking makes it into the media. For every case exposed there are many, many more that will never be found out, or worth investigating.

Of course, Europe has levers it can pull to hurt Russia, but they are increasingly resource poor. Diminishing quantities of water flowing into their rivers is going to hurt a lot more every year.

To turn Clausewitz's famous aphorism around: economics is war continued by other means. That makes Ukraine, the poorest country in Europe before the war, doubly defeated.

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

It was tragic stupidity for Ukraine to be suckered into a war they could never win, but the Danes and Germans have turned it into a farce starring Zelenskyy the Mendicant Clown.

Media: Ukraine refuses to accept some Leopard 1 tanks from Germany, Denmark due to defects
Only 20 tanks had been delivered as of September last year, DR wrote. After receiving and inspecting them, Ukraine found that 18 of the 20 tanks received had minor defects or malfunctions, and two had “more serious defects,” the documents said.
Some tanks were reportedly delivered with guns that could not fire.

Media: Ukraine refuses to accept some Leopard 1 tanks from Germany, Denmark due to defects

Ukraine refused to accept some outdated Leopard 1A5 battle tanks from Denmark and Germany due to numerous defects, Danish broadcaster DR reported on May 24, citing Danish Defense Ministry documents.

kyivindependent.com

Did they seriously think Ukrainians wouldn't notice that the tank guns could not fire? Or are they basically telling Ukraine, "it's over" and delivering any old crap to fulfill their promises.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

It was tragic stupidity for Ukraine to be suckered into a war they could never win

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Old news and so what? Ukraine could have tried other means to come to a negotiated settlement with the secessionists in Donetsk and Luhansk. But when they escalated their attacks, Russia came in overtly and forcefully.

Yesterday, Germany again rejected Ukrainian requests

Scholz against Ukraine using German weapons to strike Russian territory
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is against Ukraine using Western weapons to target Russian territory, the German public-service broadcaster ARD reported on May 26.

Speaking at an event in Berlin, Scholz said that Germany gave clear rules to Ukraine prohibiting the use of German weapons on Russian soil and that he sees no reason to change this. He added that his policy is to prevent escalation into a “really big war.”

Scholz against Ukraine using German weapons to strike Russian territory

Speaking at an event in Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his government gave clear rules to Kyiv prohibiting the use of German weapons on Russian soil and that he sees no reason to change this.

kyivindependent.com

If that's not enough of a full-throated rejection, Germany is also giving Ukraine tanks with guns that can't fire!

 

[Snowygerry]

There is a nuance though.


Meanwhile, Ukrainian combined losses exceeded 400k for the 2 years.

So do the Russian losses, according to the link above,

you’re slowly depopulating your corner of the world, while we sit on our hands and count our money, way to stick it to The West..

 

[red_elk]

Ukraine was a magnet for foreign fighters. After 2 bruising years, many are disillusioned or dead.​

• Ukraine's International Legion was born in 2022, a home for foreigners eager to fight Russia.
• Ukraine said 20,000 signed up, though experts said 4,000 was a more realistic peak figure.
• In 2024, the legion is depleted by years of harsh reality and casualty rates extreme even for Ukraine.

BI's coverage of the International Legion since its inception found that recruits were a mixed bag of qualified veterans, glory-seekers and people trying to give their often chaotic live meaning but totally unsuitable for a military role in a war zone.

In one case, a Legion volunteer from Alabama even defected to Russia.

Some volunteers barely lasted a week. A Russian missile strike in March 2022 hit a base near Lviv being used for foreign fighters. According to Ukrainian officials, dozens of Ukrainians were killed and more than 100 foreign volunteers injured, ending their campaigns before they began.

International fighters proved "more expendable than Ukrainian soldiers for high-risk operations," Pugliese said.

Indeed, Larson, who headed a 25-man platoon of legionaries in 2022, said he and his men were a "sacrificial unit." "We were a speed bump," he said. "If the Russians had come, we could have held them up for maybe an hour."

Ukraine was a magnet for foreign fighters. After 2 bruising years, many are disillusioned or dead.

Foreign volunteers have been fighting in Ukraine since February 2022. Since then, many have returned home or been killed.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

A more nuanced take on why Germany is refusing to supply long-range weapons by the Director of Eastern European Studies at the Freie Universität Berlin.

In early March, Margarita Simonyan released a recording of an intercepted conversation between high-ranking officers of the Bundeswehr, the German military. The officers were discussing the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles and of using them to strike the Kerch Bridge connecting Russian-occupied Crimea to mainland Russia. The revelation of this confidential conversation sent shockwaves through German society, and the scandal resulting ignited heated debate about the wisdom of providing Kyiv with long-range missiles. Given" Germany's recent pacifist history, such discussions are particularly difficult to have. Dmitri Stratievski, Director of the Berlin Center for Eastern European Studies, that suggests the primary to supplying these missiles isn't German Chancellor Olaf Scholz or even any particular political faction in the Bundestag and but rather the red lines ingrained in German society's collective conscience.

Political anti-missile strategy: Why Germany refuses to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine

In early March, Margarita Simonyan released a recording of an intercepted conversation between high-ranking officers of the Bundeswehr, the German military. The officers were discussing the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles — and of using them to strike the Kerch...

theins.ru

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Old news and so what? Ukraine could have tried other means to come to a negotiated settlement with the secessionists in Donetsk and Luhansk. But when they escalated their attacks, Russia came in overtly and forcefully.

They escalated their attacks?
You think Russia invaded Ukraine because "they escalated their attacks"?

Talking about tragic stupidity.

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

They escalated their attacks?
You think Russia invaded Ukraine because "they escalated their attacks"?

Talking about tragic stupidity.

There, there, no need for ad hominem attacks.
Debate the cause elsewhere; deal with what's there now.

General Staff: Russian troop activity increases in Kupiansk direction
There has been a sharp increase in Russian troop activity in the direction of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on May 26.

"The number of clashes since the beginning of the day has increased to 83. The Russian occupiers are exerting maximum effort to break through our defense," reads the report.

General Staff: Russian troop activity increases in Kupiansk direction

There has been a sharp increase in Russian troop activity in the direction of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on May 26.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Verbose]

There is no indication that Russia is planning anything after the consolidation of Donbas and eventually around to Odesa where there are a majority of Russian speakers. Any further incursion into regions without local support is unnecessary and fraught.

Instead, they can use other levers, especially when they have an enormous supply of resources that Europe needs. It was amusing to see so many German companies send delegates to China with Scholz. It's a way they can ensure reasonably stable supply chains for their products without overtly getting the essentials directly from Russia. Instead, they can get them indirectly from Russia via China. You would have to be naive to believe Macron hosted Xi because he was only worried about brandy tariffs. Or to think that all sanction breaking makes it into the media. For every case exposed there are many, many more that will never be found out, or worth investigating.

Of course, Europe has levers it can pull to hurt Russia, but they are increasingly resource poor. Diminishing quantities of water flowing into their rivers is going to hurt a lot more every year.

To turn Clausewitz's famous aphorism around: economics is war continued by other means. That makes Ukraine, the poorest country in Europe before the war, doubly defeated.

There is no evidence for ANY future events..

What we have is this Russian government's track-record. And the hindsight Europeans trying to deal with it 214-2022

Little unclear if you simply like Russia for what it's doing, or just hate Europe generally?

 

[Snowygerry]

There is no evidence for ANY future events..

(...)

There's a clear trajectory though, from the "polite" annexation of Crimea, the black ops in Eastern Ukraine to a full invasion now.

Not hard to predict the future, it's 1938 all over again, except the Anschluss failed.

Small provocations already taking place in Finland and the Baltics. It's just a matter of time.

Baltic warning over Russian plan to move sea borders

Finland and the Baltic states react to a Russian proposal to redraw sea borders dating back 40 years.

www.bbc.com

 

[Verbose]

There's a clear trajectory though, from the "polite" annexation of Crimea, the black ops in Eastern Ukraine to a full invasion now.

Not hard to predict the future, it's 1938 all over again.

Small provocations already taking place in Finland and the Baltics. It's just a matter of time.

Baltic warning over Russian plan to move sea borders

Finland and the Baltic states react to a Russian proposal to redraw sea borders dating back 40 years.

www.bbc.com

And the frequent nuclear threats (there is a particular fantasy about destroying in particular the UK), and general threats of war, and the clear indication of at least a desire of "freeze Europe" (can't help that Russian overestimation of itself), and assassinations in various European countries (using more or less nasty substances), and the Russian disinformation campaigns to try to foul up various European national political processes, and the cyber attacks, and the provocations through overflights and naval encroachments, and other border shenanigans (like kidnapping functionaries of other countries, Estonia fx)...

The conclusion is very clear in many parts of Europe now, that the only thing that will make this Russian government behave as a half-decent neighbor is the extent to which it actually feels intimidated.

And the only real leverage to put actual fear into the Kremlin, is the prospect of Russian regime change, at their expense.

 

[Snowygerry]

Yes - Germany, Poland etc. should start work on nuclear weapons imemdiately, or risk nuclear blackmail for the foreseeable future.

It's not that hard - anyone that can operate nuclear power plant can produce an improvised weapon.

Those Taurus missiles will serve perfectly well, they just need to get over the anxiety from the last war and get ready to crack some Russian skulls, the French are already there, the British conservatives have seen
the light too

Sunak’s plan to make 18-year-olds do national service grabs attention on UK election trail

All 18-year-olds in Britain will have to perform a year of mandatory military or civilian national service if the governing Conservative Party wins the July 4 national election.

apnews.com

 

[Snowygerry]

They just need a little encouragement, a tiger doesn't change its stripes, they killed some 27 million last time.

The election of Trump might just provide the motivation the Germans need.

Deliberate strategic ambiguity is what we need, I'm with Macron

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

There, there, no need for ad hominem attacks.

I did not make an ad hominem attack.
I judged the sentiment: Russia invaded Ukraine because "they escalated their attacks", as stupidity

Ad Hominem: (of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining.

I was clearly addressing the position you were maintaining.

 

[Crezth]

They just need a little encouragement, a tiger doesn't change its stripes, they killed some 27 million last time.

Well what I'm saying is that the people who actually want this war are also too cowardly to sign up and fight in it.

 

[Snowygerry]

The object of war is to get the other bastard to die for his country, is it not ?

And if enough bastards die, a period of peace follows.

That's the lesson of history, sadly forgotten in the East.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Well what I'm saying is that the people who actually want this war are also too cowardly to sign up and fight in it.

I agree. Putin should sign up and fight in his war of conquest.

 

[Snowygerry]

'War is young men dying and old men talking'

These days we have old women talking too