[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Birdjaguar]

Estonia should place new markwers that are closer to the Russian side.and arm them with explosives.

 

[Sarin]

Estonia should place new markwers that are closer to the Russian side.and arm them with explosives.

Spitefully trying to move borders is just what Russia is doing. Let's not stoop down to its level.

But explosive anti-tamper devices...that's a good idea.

 

[Lexicus]

Yeah, I'm sure that would end well.

 

[leif erikson]

Moderator Action: Back to news please.

 

[Core Imposter]

I keep reading in the news that Putin is talking about escalation on the one hand and a cease fire on the other. So, if the use of western weapons continue to be used against Crimean or Russia targets are we nearing the escalate to deescalate moment? The use of a tactical nuke?

 

[Remorseless1]

I keep reading in the news that Putin is talking about escalation on the one hand and a cease fire on the other. So, if the use of western weapons continue to be used against Crimean or Russia targets are we nearing the escalate to deescalate moment? The use of a tactical nuke?

That's up to the guy who started this war. If Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, NATO and the EU will pour money, weapons, and -- taking a tactic used by Russia in the Donbas -- "volunteers." More countries will actually start enforcing sanctions against the Russian economy.

If Putin tosses a tactical nuke into NATO territory, things will get much, much worse for Russia. Putin's putative allies -- the PRC and Iran -- aren't going to send a single soldier to aid the Criminal Putin Regime.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Putin tries to push in every direction at once to see where he can gain an advantage. I think he is genuinely afraid of too many NATO weapons in the hands of Ukraine if those weapons can be used afgainst Russian targets. Russian power plants, oil and gas entities, airbases, infrastructure, etc, could present a problem for him.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I wish people in western countries would stop listening anything coming from Putin's mouth, it is all rubbish and should be automatically disregarded. Not doing so is to play Putin's game of disinformation, confusion and division. He knows a more unified and decided support for Ukraine would render his special catastrophic operation a total disaster leading ultimately to his own fall.

Instead we should center on helping Ukraine without fissures and support the idea of attacking targets on Russian soil. Russians currently has a huge advantage for being allowed to amass forces near the frontier without being attacked themselves, while they have been smashing the Ukrainian side for months (with Iranian, north Korean and Chinese weapons). Fortunately the Russian army is so inoperant that once they enter in Ukrainian territory and therefore under Ukrainian fire, they can take only a few towns next to the frontier before being stopped on their tracks.

Btw, interesting video where a T-90M is hunted by several FPV drones. First they hit the upper side probably affecting the electrical system and the turret spin uncontrollably (a 'feature' of T-90M judging for past videos), making the tank to stop, then another drone fly around taking his time while looking meticulously for the weakest point, which apparently is the turret ring joint, enough to make the autoloader ignite. Another multimillion tank and possibly crew destroyed with 3 or 4 drones 500$ each. Amazing as these 'toys' are changing war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794253970791399674

 

[Verbose]

I keep reading in the news that Putin is talking about escalation on the one hand and a cease fire on the other. So, if the use of western weapons continue to be used against Crimean or Russia targets are we nearing the escalate to deescalate moment? The use of a tactical nuke?

That's what Moscow does – disseminate mixed messages, creating uncertainty and confusion. Seems to be working.

Putin has now issued his nuclear threats so often patterns have become discernible. The most important one is that the nuclear talk starts up every time Moscow perceives the war isn't going too well, and gets apprehensive about it.

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

Putin tries to push in every direction at once to see where he can gain an advantage. I think he is genuinely afraid of too many NATO weapons in the hands of Ukraine if those weapons can be used afgainst Russian targets. Russian power plants, oil and gas entities, airbases, infrastructure, etc, could present a problem for him.

IMO more likely is:
1. Rasputitsa is not quite over yet.
2. Russia has options, Ukraine has none.
3. Attacks on Kharkiv force Ukraine to stretch its meagre resources.
4. Ultimately, Odessa is the main target and Kharkiv is a distraction.

But nothing is certain in war, except propaganda.

 

[Gedemon]

An ex-Chinese soldier now serving in the Russian army in Ukraine:

"Bro, this war is unwinnable. The human cost is too high"

Putin tries to push in every direction at once to see where he can gain an advantage. I think he is genuinely afraid of too many NATO weapons in the hands of Ukraine if those weapons can be used against Russian targets. Russian power plants, oil and gas entities, airbases, infrastructure, etc, could present a problem for him.

I don't know, Ukraine already hit those targets with homemade long range drones.

The weapons given by NATO would be better only in the case of airbases maybe, but have a shorter range anyway. OTOH they would be more effective on military targets like troops concentration, artillery, depots, bridges...

 

[Verbose]

IMO more likely is:
1. Rasputitsa is not quite over yet.
2. Russia has options, Ukraine has none.
3. Attacks on Kharkiv force Ukraine to stretch its meagre resources.
4. Ultimately, Odessa is the main target and Kharkiv is a distraction.

But nothing is certain in war, except propaganda.

An Russia is still becoming apprehensive about the war.

Word out of Moscow is that Putin is frustrated because there is no interest in "negotiations" with Moscow on the other side.

The war is un-winable for Moscow. (It's not a war... The "war" is already with NATO and "the west" according to Russia anyway. So that's even more un-winable, and forever.) Even if it would end up occupying all of Ukraine the effort of that would break Russia. Unless first taking Ukraine like that breaks Russia. Unless the war just as it is, with Russia unable to advance faster than walking-pace, and logistically constrained to 30-50 kilometers from its rail-heads, breaks Russia. Whichever happens first.

Ukraine is, arguably, already broken by Russia, but all that really does is sharpen the stakes for Ukraine. The dues have already been paid by Ukraine. It can always give up, but to achieve what? It won't undo the suffering already inflicted on it, and won't avert any further suffering Russia will impose on it in that case. So Ukraine has no interest in "negotiations" and will continue to fight. Even if the US and other allies would try to throw it under the Russian bus for some reason.

 

[E.man]

if you do a little digging, you'll notice that "border guards" in Russia are under the jurisdiction of the FSB.

FSB Border Service of Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I imagine part of their job description similarly involves changing where the map lines are drawn so as to pull their neighbors into inadvertently sparking a crossing incident and painting themselves as the victim, in true espionage fashion.
But that's just my suspicion...

Straight after meeting Xi Jinping they start with this nibble nibble advance the sea borders provocation.

 

[Sarin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794098220433277072

It appears that Ukraine is determined to show how empty the Russian nuclear threats are. A couple days ago, Ukraine struck Armavir radar complex with UAVs, seriously damaging one of the arrays.
This is ballsy, and very serious move. As the radar station is part of the early warning system against long range ballistic missiles, had it been done by a nuclear-armed nation, it would most likely lead to nuclear escalation. I suppose they're trying to show the west how empty the Russian threats of escalation are in order to lift the restrictions of western weapons use on targets within Russia.

An ex-Chinese soldier now serving in the Russian army in Ukraine:

"Bro, this war is unwinnable. The human cost is too high"

I don't know, Ukraine already hit those targets with homemade long range drones.

The weapons given by NATO would be better only in the case of airbases maybe, but have a shorter range anyway. OTOH they would be more effective on military targets like troops concentration, artillery, depots, bridges...

When even Chinese calls the cost in bodies too high....you know it's going badly.

 

[PPQ_Purple]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794098220433277072

It appears that Ukraine is determined to show how empty the Russian nuclear threats are. A couple days ago, Ukraine struck Armavir radar complex with UAVs, seriously damaging one of the arrays.
This is ballsy, and very serious move. As the radar station is part of the early warning system against long range ballistic missiles, had it been done by a nuclear-armed nation, it would most likely lead to nuclear escalation. I suppose they're trying to show the west how empty the Russian threats of escalation are in order to lift the restrictions of western weapons use on targets within Russia.

Honestly I find this to be a very short sighted move by them. Yes, current Russian threats of atomic escalation are hollow. But that is precisely because the current situation does not in fact warrant such a response. If missiles were raining down on Russian cities like Moscow and Putin had to play duck and cover than odds are high his hands would be forced to conclude this war by resorting to all the means at his disposal lest the Russian people dispose of him. So in trying to point out how hollow the threat is they might well be helping fill it up.

The thing that everyone involved needs to understand is that the ukrainians can't win this war conventionally. No amount of foreign weapons and ukrainian willpower is going to result in blue and yellow tanks marching down the streets of Moscow like the ending to a Command and Conquer game.

Realistically speaking it is not even going to result in stopping Russia should they choose to actually go to a full war economy and total mobilization like they did in WW2. Russia just has too much manpower and industry for that to be possible even without the atomic weapons.

What is saving the ukrainians and giving them a chance is the fact that Russia can't do that right now because it would be absolutely categorically political suicide for Putin if he did. And as long as this remains true they can bleed the Russians of manpower and equipment while their true potential is hamstrung.

But that only holds true for as long as the Russian people do not feel so threatened by the war that they are willing to go along with it. And bombing Russian cities or worse yet some sort of counter invasion would be precisely the thing to tip that over.

So the only way for the ukrainians to win this is to kill so many Russians and destroy so much of their equipment that victory for Russia becomes impossible without resorting to a total war all the while denying Putin any justification to make it a total war.

Basically it's why Vietnam and the Taliban succeeded and the Zulus failed.

 

[Verbose]

Wars rarely end up, and then end, where they began. This will most likely end with the internal rearrangement of Russia. The Russian political system is brittle.

 

[Gedemon]

Honestly I find this to be a very short sighted move by them. Yes, current Russian threats of atomic escalation are hollow. But that is precisely because the current situation does not in fact warrant such a response. If missiles were raining down on Russian cities like Moscow and Putin had to play duck and cover than odds are high his hands would be forced to conclude this war by resorting to all the means at his disposal lest the Russian people dispose of him. So in trying to point out how hollow the threat is they might well be helping fill it up.

The thing that everyone involved needs to understand is that the ukrainians can't win this war conventionally. No amount of foreign weapons and ukrainian willpower is going to result in blue and yellow tanks marching down the streets of Moscow like the ending to a Command and Conquer game.

Ukraine "winning" means reconquering its territories, not invading Russia. What's true is that there is absolutely no reasons to think that the war will end at that point.

But it will hopefully freeze at some point. On which positions is a fair question, but nowhere in Russia is a certitude (because of the aforementioned nuclear weapons)

Realistically speaking it is not even going to result in stopping Russia should they choose to actually go to a full war economy and total mobilization like they did in WW2. Russia just has too much manpower and industry for that to be possible even without the atomic weapons.

True, but Ukraine is not alone.

What is saving the ukrainians and giving them a chance is the fact that Russia can't do that right now because it would be absolutely categorically political suicide for Putin if he did. And as long as this remains true they can bleed the Russians of manpower and equipment while their true potential is hamstrung.

But that only holds true for as long as the Russian people do not feel so threatened by the war that they are willing to go along with it. And bombing Russian cities or worse yet some sort of counter invasion would be precisely the thing to tip that over.

Russia will use nuclear weapons only if its invaded, or if its nuclear forces are targeted in something looking like a preparation for a preemptive strike.

Missiles targeting others military targets in Russia will not trigger that. If you're not following, Ukraine has hit multiple targets deep in Russia territory already.

So the only way for the ukrainians to win this is to kill so many Russians and destroy so much of their equipment that victory for Russia becomes impossible without resorting to a total war all the while denying Putin any justification to make it a total war.

I can agree with that, but I'm afraid Putin is preparing a total (conventional) war, looking beyond Ukraine now.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Russia hits Kharkiv supermarket - authorities​

At least two people have been killed and 35 others wounded after Russian forces hit a supermarket in the northern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv with two glide bombs, local officials say.
A large fire can be seen raging at the Epicentr K home improvement store on the northern outskirts of the city.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said over 200 people could have been inside the supermarket when it was attacked.
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov wrote on Telegram: "A large number of people are missing. This is pure terrorism."
President Zelensky added: "This strike on Kharkiv is another manifestation of Russian madness.
"Only madmen like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin are capable of killing and terrorising people in this way."

The attack will underline the anxiety that Ukrainians feel about not having suitable air defences.
Mr Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine needed to be able to defend itself and needed air defence systems from Western allies.
The attack is another sign of Russia's growing confidence.
Its forces appear to be taking advantage of a window of opportunity to push their advantage while Ukraine waits for further Western weapons to arrive at the front.
Glide bombs are built by adding fold-out wings and satellite navigation to old Soviet bombs. They are cheap but destructive.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg33y9eedz7o

 

[Crezth]

IMO more likely is:
1. Rasputitsa is not quite over yet.
2. Russia has options, Ukraine has none.
3. Attacks on Kharkiv force Ukraine to stretch its meagre resources.
4. Ultimately, Odessa is the main target and Kharkiv is a distraction.

But nothing is certain in war, except propaganda.

This is correct. Ceasefire at the current front lines is exactly the foregone conclusion that makes this a won conflict for Russia. What is the pressure to use nukes? Because Russia is running out of time to conquer all of Ukraine? They absolutely do not need to and never did.

 

[saamohod]

Russia hits Kharkiv supermarket - authorities​

At least two people have been killed and 35 others wounded after Russian forces hit a supermarket in the northern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv with two glide bombs, local officials say.
A large fire can be seen raging at the Epicentr K home improvement store on the northern outskirts of the city.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said over 200 people could have been inside the supermarket when it was attacked.
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov wrote on Telegram: "A large number of people are missing. This is pure terrorism."
President Zelensky added: "This strike on Kharkiv is another manifestation of Russian madness.
"Only madmen like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin are capable of killing and terrorising people in this way."

The attack will underline the anxiety that Ukrainians feel about not having suitable air defences.
Mr Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine needed to be able to defend itself and needed air defence systems from Western allies.
The attack is another sign of Russia's growing confidence.
Its forces appear to be taking advantage of a window of opportunity to push their advantage while Ukraine waits for further Western weapons to arrive at the front.
Glide bombs are built by adding fold-out wings and satellite navigation to old Soviet bombs. They are cheap but destructive.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg33y9eedz7o

The moment of Russian gliding bomb explosion in the Kharkiv hardware supermarket. Latest reports are 14 killed, 15 missing, dozens wounded.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794662123374821662