[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Verbose]

Here's a summation for May 2024 of the latest situation for Russian energy exports – for reference:

May 2024 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

energyandcleanair.org

There is an exception with the EU for imports of piped oil and gas involving Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech republic. Hungary is effectively Putin's ally here. While the Czechs keep actively searching for more ammo for Ukraine. Both however are part of a lack of diversification of the energy infrastructure still in the former Warsaw Pact region.

Also the EU is still Russia's biggest buyer of piped gas. I.e. China, India, Turkey etc. simply cannot pick up the slack. So Russian piped gas is a pretty dead market for Russia.
(And in recent news the Chinese proved pretty uninterested in building new infrastructure, unless Russia will sell for a song: https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/russia-china-gas-pipeline-talks/)

The hoopla in this thread has been over LNG, how Russia exported more LNG – not considering the massive amount Norwegian piped LNG, only counting LNG delivered by ship, for a single month – than the US.
So, some heavy, heavy filters and conditions to make a headline – or the headline makers just didn't understad the situation? Including how the LNG is a small part of EU energy imports.

 

[Gedemon]

I'd be interested to see the change in volume "with storage levels near record highs for this time of year", not just in percentage of import.

 

[Zardnaar]

Apparently, according to Ukrainian military, Russia has stopped the (attempt of) offensive in Kharkiv and is withdrawing attacking units from the front which have lost any combat capability due to massive loses. It seems the beating has been particularly harsh around Vovchansk:

The Battle For Vovchansk Is Becoming An Infantry Massacre

Russian troops are fighting on foot, and dying in droves.

www.forbes.com

Btw, the footage of Russian soldiers commiting suicide or shooting among themselves has sharply increased in the last weeks. May indicate a particularly desperate situation. Haven't seen anything similar among Ukrainians.

Saw one of them. Drone drop on group of 3, wounded middle one indicates to another soldier to finish him off.

 

[red_elk]

There is a video of Ukrainian soldier who tried to surrender and was following Russian drone. But he was spotted by Ukrainian FPV and wounded. Russians were only able to drop him a bottle of water, but didn't manage to evacuate him in time unfortunately.

In other reports, Russia began to use FAB-3000 UMPK, 3-ton glide bombs.

 

[Senethro]

There is a video of Ukrainian soldier who tried to surrender and was following Russian drone. But he was spotted by Ukrainian FPV and wounded. Russians were only able to drop him a bottle of water, but didn't manage to evacuate him in time unfortunately.

I see we're deep in Trust Me, Bro territory here.

 

[Zardnaar]

I see we're deep in Trust Me, Bro territory here.

Tbf we can't really link to things l8ke that.

I'm sure Russian drone footage would have similar footage.

We've never really seen in combat footage before. Older material is often after the battle, staged or still photos.

 

[saamohod]

A brotherly slavic bomb from Russia lands in the centre of Kharkiv city. Must be a sure sign of the end of the US hegemony.

Spoiler :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804617391587950696

Spoiler Warning: Graphic :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804515009566744840

Spoiler Warning: Language :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804545145825550384

Moderator Action: Added spoiler tags due to graphic images and strong language. In the future, please be considerate. -lymond

 

[red_elk]

Ukrainian strike against Sevastopol using ATACMS missiles.

4 missiles were shot down, but more than hundred civilians were wounded.
3 people killed including 2 children.

SHOT

На пляже в Севастополе погибла пожилая женщина, которая в момент удара купалась в море, рассказывают очевидцы. Также на пляже в Учкуевке скончался двухлетний малыш. ВСУ нанесли удар, когда люди семьями приехали отдохнуть на пляж в выходной. Ракеты были сбиты, но осколки упали в прибрежной зоне...

t.me

Атака ВСУ на Севастополь: количество жертв, пострадавшие, реакция властей

Вооруженные силы Украины (ВСУ) атаковали Севастополь днем в воскресенье, 23 июня. По словам главы региона Михаила Развожаева, всего системы противовоздушной обороны (ПВО) уничтожили пять воздушных целей

lenta.ru

 

[Gedemon]

Ukrainian strike against Sevastopol using ATACMS missiles.

4 missiles were shot down, but more than hundred civilians were wounded.
3 people killed including 2 children.

SHOT

На пляже в Севастополе погибла пожилая женщина, которая в момент удара купалась в море, рассказывают очевидцы. Также на пляже в Учкуевке скончался двухлетний малыш. ВСУ нанесли удар, когда люди семьями приехали отдохнуть на пляж в выходной. Ракеты были сбиты, но осколки упали в прибрежной зоне...

t.me

Атака ВСУ на Севастополь: количество жертв, пострадавшие, реакция властей

Вооруженные силы Украины (ВСУ) атаковали Севастополь днем в воскресенье, 23 июня. По словам главы региона Михаила Развожаева, всего системы противовоздушной обороны (ПВО) уничтожили пять воздушных целей

lenta.ru

​

One of the rockets exploded over a large beach, there were casualties and dozens of injured​

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense , the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the civilian infrastructure of Sevastopol with American ATACMS operational-tactical missiles equipped with cluster warheads. Four projectiles were shot down, and another missile deviated from its flight path as a result of the impact of air defense systems, exploding its warhead in the air over the city. As a result, its fragments scattered.

Tourism in a war zone, sadly not a good idea.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-tourism-crimea-is-down-many-still-shrug-off-risks-2023-08-29/

Yet despite the proximity of the war, some Russians interviewed by Reuters were keen to play down the dangers, or dismiss them entirely.
"No, absolutely no fears. We went without thinking twice, not afraid of anything; everything is good," said Alexander Semashko from Stavropol in southern Russia.
"The goal of our trip is, of course, to have a rest, and support Russian tour operators, hoteliers, and Russian tourism, no doubt."
Sergei Lenkov, from Vologda north of Moscow, said he had confidence in Russia's air defence systems.
"There are no risks really. The sky is protected. So there isn't anything to get upset about," he said.

 

[red_elk]

Cluster munition, apparently.

Mash

Момент удара ракетами ATACMS ВСУ по пляжу в Учкуевке в Севастополе. UPD. Количество пострадавших выросло до 124 человек. ❗️ Подписывайся на Mash

t.me

 

[Broken_Erika]

Ukraine says it destroyed Russian drone base​

Ukraine says satellite pictures show the destruction of a Russian warehouse used to launch Iranian-made drones and to train cadets.
The photos - posted by Ukraine's Navy - follow reports of a massive explosion near a Russian airfield in the southern region of Krasnodar.
Moscow has yet to comment on the reports, but did say it has shot down a number of drones in the region overnight on Friday.
Navy officials in Kyiv said a number of training instructors and cadets learning to operate the Iranian-made Shahed drones were killed by the attack, which they said happened on Friday night.
In a post to Telegram, Navy officials in Kyiv said the operation was planned and conducted in partnership with Ukrainian intelligence agencies.
The base sat on the Sea of Azov opposite the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, data from Planet Labs - the US-based company who took the photos - showed.
"New satellite images confirm the destruction on the night of June 21 of the Shahed-136/Geran-2 storage and preparation facilities, training buildings, control and communication points of these UAVs located in the Krasnodar Territory," naval officials wrote in a post to Facebook.
The photos posted to social media appeared to show two large warehouses bisected by a road running north-south on 11 April. Subsequent photos taken on Saturday showed one of the warehouses completely destroyed, with the other having sustained significant damage.
Russia said on Friday that it had shot down 114 drones during a Ukrainian attack on oil refineries and military targets in the south of the country. Officials said that one person was killed by falling debris, but did not mention the attack on the drone base.
On Saturday Russian-installed officials in occupied Crimea said three people including two children were killed in a Ukrainian missile attack on the peninsula.
Mikhail Razvozhaev - who was installed by Moscow as the regional governor in 2020 - said almost 100 people were injured.
Russia's defence ministry said five projectiles had been destroyed by air defences but debris from the interceptions fell on coastal areas. Officials said the missiles were US-made ATACMS - which are capable of striking deep into Russian-held territory.
Elsewhere, the governor of Russia's Belgorod region said further Ukrainian drone attacks overnight on Sunday left one person dead and three more injured.
Vyacheslav Gladkov said one of the drones destroyed a car park in Graivoron - about six kilometres (3.7 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
Meanwhile, officials in Kyiv said two people were injured and scores of residential buildings were damaged in a Russian missile and drone attack on the Ukrainian capital on Saturday night.
Ruslan Kravchenko, head of the Kyiv regional administration, said the people were injured by falling debris. He noted that six tower blocks, 20 private homes and several shops were damaged in the attack.
Ukraine's air force said it destroyed two of three missiles launched by Russia towards the Kyiv region.
During his nightly address from the capital, President Volodymyr Zelensky once again renewed his appeal to Western nations to supply new air defences to Ukraine, specifically calling for Us-made Patriot systems.
"Ukraine needs the necessary forces and means to destroy the carriers of these bombs, particularly Russian combat aviation wherever it is," he said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511ny02qjwo

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

Btw, the footage of Russian soldiers commiting suicide or shooting among themselves has sharply increased in the last weeks. May indicate a particularly desperate situation. Haven't seen anything similar among Ukrainians.

Azov Leader Admits to Ukrainian Use of ‘Blocking Detachments’
Jun 19, 2024
In a June 16 interview with the news channel of Ukraine’s army, Armiya TV, an Azov commander admitted to his unit being used to prevent other Ukrainian units from retreating.

Dmitry Kukharchuk, the commander of the Second Battalion of Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade, the current iteration of the neo-Nazi-linked unit, recounts a moment in 2022 when his unit was positioned behind a unit of Ukraine’s territorial defense forces (TRO) to prevent its retreat:

We [Azov] were motivational troops then. We then helped the 110th brigade of the TRO. I can't say anything bad about them, because for a TRO they fought quite well, but, again, as a TRO they had to be motivated. And then my detachment—I was then the commander of a detachment of 500 men—was evenly distributed along a 25-kilometer line….
“Motivational troops” appears to be a euphemism for a “blocking detachment” (also known as “barrier troops”), a unit positioned behind the frontline to prevent retreat. It appears that Azov’s “motivation” existed as an implicit threat, preventing the TRO soldiers from falling back.

The admission comes close on the Biden administration’s decision to allow military aid to go to the Azov unit, which had earlier been banned from receiving aid under the Leahy Law due to its extremist associations.

While rumors have swirled concerning the use of blocking detachments in the ongoing conflict. In 2023, Sputnik, a Russian state-aligned outlet, released drone footage purporting to show Ukrainian barrier troops firing upon Ukrainian soldiers attempting to retreat. The British Defense Ministry has alleged that the Russians have used barrier troops in the conflict to shoot deserters.

Azov Leader Admits to Ukrainian Use of ‘Blocking Detachments’

State of the Union: The interview gives insight into the Ukrainian armed forces’ tenuous condition.

www.theamericanconservative.com

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

I'd be interested to see the change in volume "with storage levels near record highs for this time of year", not just in percentage of import.

As the report said, it's likely a one off spike. And as I mentioned about Austria, the situation will change again when pipelines connect it to the German coast so they can get more via that infrastructure.

 

[saamohod]

Russian Saboteurs Behind Arson Attack at German Factory​

Attack is a sign of the Kremlin’s more aggressive clandestine operations, security officials say
In the aftermath of last month’s [Diehl] blaze on the outskirts of the German capital, German investigators said the cause was likely an accident. But Western security officials now say the fire was set by Russian saboteurs.

The fire… likely started in an area to which only a few people had access, according to an official familiar …all CCTV footage was lost in the fire. A number of recent incidents … considered accidents should be re-evaluated in light of recent events, the official said

In the case of Diehl, electronic-communications intercepts that provided evidence of Russia’s involvement weren’t admissible in German courts, preventing authorities from clearly attributing the attack and pursuing criminal charges, two German officials said.

(Pay-walled)

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-saboteurs-behind-arson-attackat-german-factory-c13b4ece

 

[Snowygerry]

Russian offensive regarded as failed, even in the "Global South",

Russian troops fail to advance as Ukraine garners military, financial aid

Battles continue in Kharkiv as President Putin signs a strategic agreement with North Korea.

www.aljazeera.com

[

Russia was unable to make headway in eastern Ukraine and even lost ground in its newest incursion in the northern Kharkiv region, which was designed to distract Ukrainian defenders.

This is interesting too, apparently Ukraine is too European to garner much sympathy there :

Ukraine’s own rhetoric, however, has also contributed to the failure. Back in 2022, after the start of Russia’s full-out aggression, Zelenskyy and members of his government attempted to secure sympathy of the Global South by presenting Ukraine as a victim of a colonial war waged by Russia.

At best, this argument falls on flat ears in places like South Africa or Brazil, coming from a European nation that pictures itself as a bulwark of “the civilised world” – a term President Zelenskyy once again unwittingly used at a security conference in Singapore in early June as he tried to persuade Asian countries to attend the summit. The real former victims of European colonialism hardly enjoy being deemed as “uncivilised”.

Why did the Ukraine Peace Summit fail?

The Global South is not buying the Ukrainian claim to colonial victimhood.

www.aljazeera.com

I wonder what other "victimhoods" we can dismiss on similar grounds, most of them I imagine.

 

[Zardnaar]

Usually caveats apply

Russia hits major tank loss milestone

Moscow's high equipment losses continue, according to Ukraine's latest estimate.

www.newsweek.com

Minimum losses 56k dead 3000 tanks+ destroyed.

Ukraine is claiming 8k.

 

[MarcosQuadros]

Russian offensive regarded as failed, even in the "Global South",

Russian troops fail to advance as Ukraine garners military, financial aid

Battles continue in Kharkiv as President Putin signs a strategic agreement with North Korea.

www.aljazeera.com

[



This is interesting too, apparently Ukraine is too European to garner much sympathy there :

Why did the Ukraine Peace Summit fail?

The Global South is not buying the Ukrainian claim to colonial victimhood.

www.aljazeera.com

I wonder what other "victimhoods" we can dismiss on similar grounds, most of them I imagine.

With all thats happening in palestine you cant se why people from global south may see double standards? Lmao

 

[Snowygerry]

The author of that second article is based in Riga, his name is Leonid Ragozin ?

He's about as well placed to comment on the Global South as my uncle Albert in Congo,

I suspect the Global South as a concept was invented in a air conditioned room in Quatar

 

[Gorbles]

The author of that second article is based in Riga, his name is Leonid Ragozin ?

He's about as well placed to comment on the Global South as my uncle Albert in Congo,

I suspect the Global South as a concept was invented in a air conditioned room in Quatar

What does that make of any of us, given that a lot of us are commenting on things happening far, far from where we live?

Should my kid not be learning about deforestation (particularly of rainforests) at school? Will he come to against someone that says "you don't live in Brazil, what do you know"?

 

[Snowygerry]

That article was included as a comical example of propaganda, in particar of the framing of the Ukraine war in foreign media, not as a ground for serious discussion, which would likely be off-topic here anyway.