[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: The 7th Thread Itch; scratch it here!

[red_elk]

Ukraine continue direct frontal assaults in direction of Verbovoe. Fields turned into graveyard of Ukrainian vehicles.

Colonelcassad

Кладбище техники ВСУ в районе Вербового. Несмотря на все усилия захватить Вербовое противник так и не смог.

t.me

Su-34 destroys bridge in Kuzemovka direction.

Colonelcassad

Видео поражения самолетом Су-34 ВКС РФ с применением ракеты Х-38мл моста на Куземовском направлении @rtrdonetsk

t.me

 

[EvaDK]

Armenia just more or less declared the CSTO for dead and Putin - potentially - a persona non grata in the country:

In a statement, they said their self-declared Republic of Artsakh would "cease to exist" by 1 January, in what amounted to a formal capitulation to Azerbaijan.

This is widely considered to be further evidence of Russia's waning influence in the Caucasus and of the notion that the post-Soviet security bloc Vladimir Putin set up to mirror NATO in the region—the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—is no longer a force.

In light of these developments, Armenia has announced it will sign the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court - which allows for the arrest of Mr Putin on war crimes charges. In theory, this would mean the Russian president could be arrested if he were to enter Armenia.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the move as "extremely hostile" towards Moscow. "Armenia knows very well that we are not a party to [the Rome Statute], and Armenia is fully aware of the hardly digestible decision [of the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin] made based on this statute.

"We know that Yerevan is well aware of this. This is not something we approve of."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...updates-12541713?postid=6500304#liveblog-body

To us, it's just another nation realizing the hard way, that Putin's signature on a treaty isn't worth spit.

This may be true, but it doesn't make much strategic sense to me.

Sacrificing +30,000 Russian/Wagner troops to take Bakhmut didn't make strategic sense either; yet they did it anyway because Putin demanded it.

The entire war makes little sense when you think about it; Russia stands to gain nothing in geo-political terms from waging it.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I see that there is so far no response here to my question of the specific purpose of Russian counter attacks.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707421223003566570

Among the dozens of videos of Russian vehicles destroyed released every day, this one is particularly interesting: A Russian tank destroyed by a smart (sic) German 155mm shell. You only have to fire it approximately where the enemy tanks are, the shell will release a couple de IR guided bombets at some altitude over the target, the bombets will then look for the tanks and destroy them. Amazing technology.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707407873603428717

Interesting thread about how Kremlin-controlled Russian book and movie markets have been brainwashing Russian people to prepare them for invading Ukraine for the last 15 years or so, praising Stalin, promoting hatred towards Ukrainia and the west, even dreaming on alternative universes where Russia sides with Hitler against the west, and in general spreading all kind of militaristic and revanchist propaganda.

 

[red_elk]

NYT map of territorial changes.

Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One. (Published 2023)

Although both sides have launched ambitious offensives, the front line has barely shifted. After 18 months of war, a breakthrough looks more difficult than ever.

www.nytimes.com

TL/DR almost no changes this year.
Since January, Russia gained 331 sq. miles. Ukraine managed to recapture less than half of it.

 

[Verbose]

I see that there is so far no response here to my question of the specific purpose of Russian counter attacks.

Russian doctrine. Attack is the best defense etc.

 

[Birdjaguar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707407873603428717

Interesting thread about how Kremlin-controlled Russian book and movie markets have been brainwashing Russian people to prepare them for invading Ukraine for the last 15 years or so, praising Stalin, promoting hatred towards Ukrainia and the west, even dreaming on alternative universes where Russia sides with Hitler against the west, and in general spreading all kind of militaristic and revanchist propaganda.

Moderator Action: There have been reports about this post because it contains "nazism" in the media link. As stated in the Staff message about use of Nazi and Fascist, media links with the words buried in the text would be considered individually. This use of the word in this link is just fine. I tried to show that when I liked the post. Our goal is to reduce the inflammatory use of those words in this thread. This ban does not stop people from starting other threads where those can be discussed in a civil manner.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Ukraine continue direct frontal assaults in direction of Verbovoe. Fields turned into graveyard of Ukrainian vehicles.

Our Russian friend should check the Pro Ukrainian footage from time to time
Should have bookmarked the compilation footage from last week of the best combat footage, but well you get the idea

 

[Thorgalaeg]

^^^This guy does an excellent work compiling all footage released in Russian and Ukrainian channels in Telegram daily. Almost every single day Russian loses are substantially bigger, with some exception, like some days ago when Ukraine launched some costly assault through Russian minefields.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707020124832628860

 

[PaxImperator]

Ukraine continue direct frontal assaults in direction of Verbovoe. Fields turned into graveyard of Ukrainian vehicles.

Colonelcassad

Кладбище техники ВСУ в районе Вербового. Несмотря на все усилия захватить Вербовое противник так и не смог.

t.me

Actually, according to this video the vehicles were destroyed between the first and third weeks of August while breaching the first and second lines of Russian defences and Russia has delayed publishing footage of them to be able to falsely claim that Ukraine continues to suffer high casualties even after breaching those lines.

 

[red_elk]

The current sitrep from Military Summary.

 

[Gedemon]

I see that there is so far no response here to my question of the specific purpose of Russian counter attacks.

From that French retired colonel blog post post in June, this seems to be one of the logical choice

L’offensive ukrainienne est-elle un échec ?

Oubliez la question, c’est un leurre pour piéger ceux qui se contentent de réagir à des titres sur les réseaux sociaux sans prendre le temps...

lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com

Du côté russe, les choses sont plus simples, comme souvent en défense.

1 : Freiner et tuer. Échanger du terrain contre des pertes ukrainiennes et du temps. Tenir fermement la deuxième position. Préparer une troisième position au nord de Mélitopol et Berdiansk.

2 : Pas un pouce. Résister sur la première position et reprendre tout terrain perdu. Peu importe les pertes russes. Toutes les réserves sont engagés sur le front de Zapo-Donetsk

3 : Tenir et contre-attaquer. Résister sur la deuxième position et contre-attaquer dans la province de Louhansk, pour au mieux y reprendre le terrain ou au moins fixer les forces ukrainiennes.

Dans tous les cas, la défense est là aussi complétée par une campagne de frappes en profondeur afin de fixer la défense aérienne ukrainienne à l’arrière et d’entraver les flux vers le front et de petites opérations périphériques.

On the Russian side, things are simpler, as they often are in defence.

1: Slow down and kill. Trade ground for Ukrainian losses and time. Hold the second position firmly. Prepare a third position north of Melitopol and Berdiansk.

2: Not an inch. Resist the first position and recapture any ground lost. No matter what the Russian losses. All reserves are committed to the Zapo-Donetsk front.

3: Hold and counter-attack. Hold on to the second position and counter-attack in Luhansk province, at best to retake the ground there or at least to fix the Ukrainian forces.

In all cases, the defence is supplemented here too by a campaign of strikes in depth to fix the Ukrainian air defence to the rear and hinder the flow to the front and small peripheral operations.

 

[FriendlyFire]

I see that there is so far no response here to my question of the specific purpose of Russian counter attacks.

Original reason ? Opening up east-west railway line
Current reason, flanking Ukraine salient, regaining imitative and forcing redeployment of UA forces
While the Russians have done some boneheaded things, there are good reasons for them to launch there new attacks.

Plenty of armchair chair generals avaliable online

 

[Verbose]

^^^This guy does an excellent work compiling all footage released in Russian and Ukrainian channels in Telegram daily. Almost every single day Russian loses are substantially bigger, with some exception, like some days ago when Ukraine launched some costly assault through Russian minefields.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707020124832628860

Confirms this as a general situation where the sides are so far apart, and the distrust wall-to-wall anyway, that any kind on consensus on what observed phenomena signify cannot really be established – and then one of the tried practices to try to get past the fundamental mistrust is to start counting things.

But I'm kind of happy someone is taking the trouble to try it like this, so I don't have to.

Bit akin to the work done by the YouTuber Covert Cabal who buys satellite photage of all identified Russian military storage areas, and tries to calculate the activity, number of vehicles stored, and the changes over time. Recently Russian tube artillery:

 

[red_elk]

Covert Cabal seems to be a decent source, watched this video earlier.
He is kind of careful about conclusions though. Number of artillery pieces in storage he was able to count decreased roughly from 17k to 12k, and he mentions that during the conflict number of units in storage is expected to decrease, as the number of those in active service is increasing.

Not to mention that the most modern and valuable vehicles won't be stored in the open air, rather kept in hangars and storage sites under the roof.

 

[leif erikson]

Moderator Action: Another group of bickering posts deleted. Please stick to news.

 

[Zardnaar]

Covert Cabal seems to be a decent source, watched this video earlier.
He is kind of careful about conclusions though. Number of artillery pieces in storage he was able to count decreased roughly from 17k to 12k, and he mentions that during the conflict number of units in storage is expected to decrease, as the number of those in active service is increasing.

Not to mention that the most modern and valuable vehicles won't be stored in the open air, rather kept in hangars and storage sites under the roof.

He's dobr sone decent work doesn't dramatize things to much.

 

[red_elk]

Sobering assessment of BBC reporter who actually made it to the frontline.

To complement it, statistics of Russian FPV drone usage, according to lostarmour geolocated videos.
Top bar corresponds to the first three weeks of September.

Spoiler :

Full data here:

Применение FPV-дронов российскими войсками

lostarmour.info

 

[EnglishEdward]

On the other hand, according to our former UK defence minister:

Wallace: I asked PM to give Ukraine £2.3 billion more for battle with Russia

The former defence secretary said the extra investment could help Kyiv to ‘end’ the Russian invasion through its counter offensive.

www.aol.co.uk

“We have a chance to help finish this. The Russian army is cracking,” Mr Wallace said.