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SGOTM 21 - Plastic Ducks

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 9, 2015.

  1. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    Yes, but they haven't been named this in the save.

    ---

    Regarding pillaging, the loss of a Pasture amounts to -1F2H. If, as a general rule, 1F =2H =2C, then a pillaged Cows loses –4C. Assume an approximate 25% boost to commerce invested in research, we lose –5BPT total.

    Archery costs 97B and IW 325B, so: 325B - 97B = 228B.

    228B/5BPT = 45.6 turns. Or: "if we must work a pillaged Cows for 46 turns or more, then, in terms of yield, it is better to research Iron Working than Archery."

    If the Cow is camped, then we lose 4F2H = 10H = 10C = –12.5BPT

    228/12.5BPT = 18.2 turns

    ---

    Without testing, I am 100% sure Shaka will beeline IW, and Willem will then trade it as soon as he gets it as well.

    Elizabeth should trade it when it is known to one other AI (i.e. Shaka), but maybe two will need it (i.e. Shaka + Willem).

    Willem's last tech in the game was Priesthood, so there is a chance he is going to Monarchy, but I'd guess Writing is more likely. One of Alpha, CoLs, or Monarchy should be his big target tech. I am glad we have visibility.

    Whether it is worthwhile to keep Willem alive also depends on our need to trade for certain techs. Settlers are not cheap gifts, especially if we are running Caste, and the first hint does not demand that we research any further than we had anticipated.
     
  2. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    That's assuming that we could actually work the pillaged tile, i.e. that he wouldn't keep his units there. It also doesn't take into account GPP loses from Sparta. Could we hire specialists there under siege?

    The spreadsheet tells that nobody has IW nor Monarchy at the moment. This also means that we might be able to trade IW + Math for Alphabet if Liz or Willem research it.
     
  3. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    The issue about Shaka is not that how much loss if he pillages. It does not matter whether we research archery as soon as possible, or research IW to get Iron. As long as we could gather 4~5 archers in time (which are the best defenders considering the efficiency and cost), Shaka will suicide his SOD without doubt. Moreover, there are still a good chance that we are not the target, especially if Shaka shares some border tiles with other AIs. Therefore, the best reaction for us now is waiting for our warrior to find out. In the worst case, each one of our scout and warriors could give us 2 more turns to prepare.

    Hand me the save in the worst case.;)
     
  4. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    The Oracle supplies 4GPP, so Cash Cow (new name :D) will reach 200/300/400/500/600GP in 50/75/100/125/150 turns. I assume that none of us had planned to wait 50 turns before generating the next GScientist, so the GProphet will come after Engineering, not before.

    The original plan was to produce 4 GScientists in order to bulb Optics/Astro/Engineering (= 500GP).

    ~25 turns are needed before we switch into Caste (+100GPP in CC)

    Generating 4 GScientists might take ~25 turns (+100GPP, = 200GPP total). With Engineering, we can then get Meditation and Temples.

    Military victory might take ~60 turns, depending on the AI and map.

    Aiming for a final total of 6/7/8/900/1000GPP (building from the initial 200GPP):

    Cash Cow (200/x00GPP)

    • +400GPP = 40 turns @10GPP per turn
      OR = 25 turns @16GPP​
    • +500GPP = 50 turns @10GPP per turn
      OR = 32 turns @16GPP​
    • +600GPP = 60 turns @10GPP per turn
      OR = 38 turns @16GPP​
    • +700GPP = 70 turns @10GPP per turn
      OR = 44 turns @16GPP​
    • +800GPP = 80 turns @10GPP per turn
      OR = 50 turns @16GPP​
    This slots into the bigger picture, roughly:

    Great People:
    GP#1 = Great Scientist = Mathematics [check]

    GP#2 = Great Scientist = Optics (city #1)
    GP#3 = Great Scientist = Astro 1 (city #2)
    GP#4 = Great Scientist = Astro 2 (city #3)
    GP#5 = Great Scientist = Engineering (city #1)

    GP#6 = GPerson for Izzy 1 (Music/city #3)
    GP#7 = GPerson for Izzy 2 (TO/city #4)
    GP#8 = GPerson for Izzy 3 (TO/city #4)

    GP#9 = Golden Age 1 (city #2)

    GP#10 = ????​


    Outside of Caste, Cities #1/2/3/4 each need additional GPeople slots. If we are at war for ~60 turns, then 6*60 = 360GPP, and 12*60 = 360GPP. So a Forge should be enough to push City #2 over the limit, and Libraries/Odeons for Cities #1, #3 and #4. A late Golden Age will also help with final cities.

    I think we can still skip Music, as long as we don't need more than 9 Great People. However, a 600GP Great Artist needs 100 Artist turns, and Artists are basically useless (+1BPT) compared to Scientists and, more importantly, food and whips. So maybe Music will be better after all.

    I hope the next player enjoys GP planning. :cool:

    edit: one fault with the above is that Athens, at the very least, can begin running Scientists before Caste System and Monarchy.
     
  5. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    We'll have to buy 2 more hints before any detailed GPP plans, since other ladies might want their own assortments of influential people.

    Ok, so Duckweed preferes archers in any case for our defense in Sparta. If we go with that, the question is for how long exactly do we wait before going 100 % Archery.
     
  6. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    Maybe never, maybe shortly right after T65, depends on what our warrior find out. From the turn when we found Shaka's scout, his capital should be far away, probably ~20 tiles away, considering that both of us and Shaka settled 1 city toward each other, the distance between our border cities would be at least 10 tiles away. That's why I said that we have enough time to react.

    Moreover, we don't need archers to settle the horse site. After barbarian invasion is triggered, all the free barbarians will march toward AIs' cities. Then we can send our warrior to fogbust and settle the site.

    If there's chance that we don't need to research archery ourselves, why do we want to hurry before necessary? I'm undecided whether to research Music for the free GA, because it's still unclear about our future plan, even the bulbing plan is not guaranteed at the moment. Our 1st step to Oracle Currency is right, knowing the tasks as early as possible allows us to adjust the grand strategies without much loss.
     
  7. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    Uploaded T63, before any 75G gift. Moved the WB 1 tile and the Woodsman Warrior 1 tile. No barbs IBT, Willem is researching IW.

    I'll take a final vote from the team. The questions:

    1. 75G gift this turn? Yes or no.
      [*]If yes: which leader and hint #?

    My answers:

    1. Yes.
      [*]Elizabeth #1

    When we reach a difference of 3 votes for/against the gift, I'll continue.

    While you are posting, please say if you would prefer that the WB go in a particular direction, if you have an opinion. :) The choice is 1N, 1E, or 1SE:

    Spoiler :


    Without further feedback, I would go 1E.

    ----

    Btw, I tested and, in an emergency, we can research Archery in 1-turn after Fish City is settled (city on T64, Archery on T65).
     
  8. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    I'm more interested about Cathy, but we'll get to find out about that soon enough. I agree with Doshin though to keep us going, it doesn't matter much either way.
     
  9. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    I don't mind learning about Cathy either, and agree that it probably doesn't matter.

    If someone else has a reason to prefer Cathy > Elizabeth, I can also switch my vote to form a consensus. :)
     
  10. shakabrade

    shakabrade Praise Vivec!

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    My answers:
    Yes.
    Elizabeth #1
     
  11. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    @BSPollux

    Spoiler :




    Elizabeth #1 hint please.

    Before and after saves are uploaded.
     
  12. BSPollux

    BSPollux Chieftain

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    Sure, updating the page#1 post in a few seconds

    Edit: Done. Hope you like your second option.
     
  13. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    ^^^^ thanks

    @team

    Spoiler :

    Quite a bit easier than Izzy.
     
  14. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    Is it? How do we get that much experience on a boat? I've never tried it, could we attach a GG to a Caravel? Still, that would only give 20 XP. For another 30, we'd need to use 3 more GG to split the experience evenly with the boat and some other unit.

    I'll also note the ambiguity of the task: does the boat really have to be able to "sail the oceans", or is it just a figure of speech?
     
  15. BSPollux

    BSPollux Chieftain

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    The later.
     
  16. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    The unit will just suck up any GGs that we'd usually settle, e.g. 10XP (attach GG to Warrior and upgrade x3) followed by 20XP (attach to Galley, upgrade, gift). We also won't have a Heroic Epic site or a strong Bureau capital, which is where settled GGs usually shine.

    We might be able to get 10XP through battles, but even attacking Galleys poses a risk to Galleons (unlike using Destroyers, or super medics to mop up after siege), so we should probably expect to attach 4GGs, as you say.
     
  17. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    WB 1E is fine, after that, maybe it's time to turn NE, note that those ICE just discontinue.

    Liz demands her "Lord Nelson", and ask for Hercules to transform.:lol:
     
  18. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    Uploaded T65. I moved the Work Boat, and rearranged some tiles, but nothing more.

    We have 103G banked. :)

    1. 100G gift this turn? Yes or no.

    Yes from me, for Catherine #1.

    I will do the gift thing (or not) as soon as we have a three vote majority for or against.

    ----

    Shaka settled another city IBT, which means he will be slower to attack his target.

    Utrecht:

    Spoiler :





    I plan to enter the city and hop on the road network.
     
  19. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    No one against buying the last hint.

    Fine for warrior and WB movement. Good job of sending the warrior to reveal the last 2 NE land tiles.

    The revealed map looks like a boat.
     
  20. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Even with no gold, we should still be able to tech Archery in 2 turns.

    I approve of buying Catherine Hint #1.

    50xp boat? Lizzy wants us to go to war then! :D
     

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