Trump's Rump

Samson said:
There is just such a fundamental disconnect between the real world and what he says. No model "defines" a system. A model simplifies and abstracts a system, in a way that may help describe how it works and predict how it will change, but is fundamentally wrong (but may be useful). The limits of any model must factor into any decision making that comes from the output of the model. Anyone who does not understand that does not belong in a decision making role.
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True, but as soon as a model becomes part of policy, the model will change the system it describes. People will use the model to guide their decisions to the point where the model can becomee a self-fulfilling prophecy or a self-negating prophecy.

A model defining a system is a cause for serious concern, but it can happen. Both model makers and decision makers need to be aware of that.
 
@Lexicus I think we are in full agreement that fraud and corruption were at the heart of the problem (and much of the solution) and that those who should have gone to jail, didn't.
 
Samson said:
There is just such a fundamental disconnect between the real world and what he says. No model "defines" a system. A model simplifies and abstracts a system, in a way that may help describe how it works and predict how it will change, but is fundamentally wrong (but may be useful). The limits of any model must factor into any decision making that comes from the output of the model. Anyone who does not understand that does not belong in a decision making role.
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PhroX said:
Yeah, as someone who does modelling for a living (albeit of the behaviour of water, and not economics), the most important thing when looking at a model and it's outputs is to understand its limitations. Every model is wrong. Many are still very useful when applied correctly, but you need to know the flaws, the limitation etc. before you can apply it correctly.

That said, I would place some of the blame on the people doing the modelling rather than just the decision makers - it's our job to ensure that the latter understand this before we even think about giving them results, and we shouldn't be giving out results that can be misused by people who don't understand the limitations (I spend far too much time very carefully wording reports...).
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Samson said:
If the decision makers here were career politicians I would agree with you, it is the responsibility of the technical people to get the politicians to understand enough of the technicalities to make a good decision. However we are talking about Alan Greenspan, who is supposed to be an expert economist. If he does not understand modelling at this most fundamental level then what is he doing with his life?
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Greenspan understands the limits of modelling just fine. The problem is that neoclassical models of the economy are just wrong. It is not a question of using the models correctly by understanding their limitations: they are flat-out wrong and simply lead to disaster when used as a guide to policy.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
But Obama was very mean to wall street. This very angry man told me so

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I will say that everytime it looks like rent is going to be due finally, a bunch of TVs much newer than I've ever owned tend to start popping up on marketplace. It's a feels bad.
 
Berzerker said:
I dont trust him either, left wing journalists convinced me Russiagate was a scam by the Democrats, not Trump
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Fashionably late as usual, but I just want to point out that calling journalists "left wing" doesn't make them so. Culturally, at least.

But that's another problem. I generally use "left wing" and "right wing" to mean culturally so, mainly because I'm economically illiterate (or at least I am compared to anyone with actual knowledge of the subject). Maybe the folks you bang on about are economically liberal. But even then, in conventional terms, that doesn't make them "left wing".

A lot of fuss over a coupla words, for sure. But you're the one that keeps repeating the mantra of "left wing journalists said so" like that in of itself is evidence of anything.
 
https://twitter.com/benstracy/status/1428407474546257920

NEW: CBS News confirms the man in a truck near the US Capitol who claims to have a bomb is Floyd Ray Roseberry of Grover, NC. He wants President Biden to resign and claims in a Facebook livestream that “the revolution is on.”
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Crazy Trump supporter with a bomb in his truck.

This is what they are doing. Stoking the rubes, until they engage in Stochastic terrorism.

This guy has now surrendered, with no bomb going off. But other ones will be willing to bite the bullet and cause real carnage.
 
Gorbles said:
Fashionably late as usual, but I just want to point out that calling journalists "left wing" doesn't make them so. Culturally, at least.

But that's another problem. I generally use "left wing" and "right wing" to mean culturally so, mainly because I'm economically illiterate (or at least I am compared to anyone with actual knowledge of the subject). Maybe the folks you bang on about are economically liberal. But even then, in conventional terms, that doesn't make them "left wing".

A lot of fuss over a coupla words, for sure. But you're the one that keeps repeating the mantra of "left wing journalists said so" like that in of itself is evidence of anything.
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Glenn Greenwald and Aaron Mate are left wing and thats evidence left wing journalists exposed Russiagate.
 
Drakle said:
Left-wing is, going on Tucker Carlson every week, to agree with him endlessly.
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What are they agreeing about, that Afghanistan and Iraq were disasters? Tucker supported those wars and now more or less agrees with Greenwald. I'd think thats a small victory for the left, the most watched talking head is now preaching their message at least when it comes to endlessly torching the Middle East.

But Greenwald mostly appears on left wing media outlets, so does that mean he's left or right depending on the ideology of the people inviting him? Greenwald was exposing Russiagate long before Tucker gave him a platform... and that platform would not have existed a dozen years ago when Greenwald was railing about Bush.
 
Berzerker said:
Glenn Greenwald and Aaron Mate are left wing and thats evidence left wing journalists exposed Russiagate.
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lol no and lol no

I mean Maté, maybe. At once point. Or perhaps still on specific issues. But he contributes to RealClearPolitics, I feel pretty confident with: lol no (and it's not like many of his pieces on The Nation are much better. It's overwhelmingly "Russiagate bad" or "impeachment bad").

Maybe to you they seem left wing. But just because individuals are platformed by specific outlets you characterise as left wing, or perhaps just because they espouse singular talking points that you perceive as left wing, doesn't make them so. This isn't necessarily the case for anyone else, but you specifically have a very tidy history of providing rather nonsense caricatures of left wing opinions.
 
so Greenwald isn't left wing because he goes on Tucker, but when he goes on left wing platforms he still isn't left wing because the ideology of the platformers doesn't matter?

Russiagate - the govt spied on political opponents to win an election. I thought the left frowned on such behavior.
 
Berzerker said:
so Greenwald isn't left wing because he goes on Tucker, but when he goes on left wing platforms he still isn't left wing because the ideology of the platformers doesn't matter?

Russiagate - the govt spied on political opponents to win an election. I thought the left frowned on such behavior.
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One opinion doe not a liberal or conservative make.
 
Berzerker said:
so Greenwald isn't left wing because he goes on Tucker, but when he goes on left wing platforms he still isn't left wing because the ideology of the platformers doesn't matter?

Russiagate - the govt spied on political opponents to win an election. I thought the left frowned on such behavior.
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The ideology of the platform is not necessarily inherent. Exchanging opinions with an individual on the platform is reliably more concrete behaviour.

If someone, for whatever reason, appeared on the Tucker show and spent the entire time dismantling Tucker's nonsense, they would obviously not share Tucker's values. That evidently ain't what's happening.

Besides, you're the one trying to gotcha me over the differences in a written platform and a spoken one. Appearing in one is far more indicative of someone's beliefs than appearing in another. I'll leave it to you to puzzle that one out.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...bama-rally-mo-brooks-senate-coronavirus-covid

Trump stages Alabama rally as state struggles with Covid surge

[...]

Like other southern, Republican-run states, Alabama is struggling with a surge in cases of Covid-19 fueled by the contagious Delta variant. On Thursday, the city of Cullman declared a state of emergency.

“We want to prevent as many non-Covid related things as possible, so our hospital can use its resources to focus on the pandemic and its variants,” said Luke Satterfield, an attorney for the city, according to AL.com. “We don’t want to put any extra strain on them.”

In a statement on Saturday, Trump said he expected a “huge crowd and tremendous enthusiasm” as there was “much to discuss, mostly having to do with bringing our country back”. Local media reported that organisers expected about 40,000 to attend at York Farms. The former president was set to take the stage at 7pm local time.

Dr William Smith, chief medical officer for Cullman Regional, told CBS42: “We view this as a potential ‘super-spreader’ event, just like last week’s Rock the South [at the same location]. We’ve seen an increase in patients since that event last weekend and we’re concerned we could see the same impact.”
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Arizona's sham 'audit' report due to GOP-led state Senate on Monday
The report's delivery to state senators Monday does not mean it will be immediately released to the public. Instead, Senate Republicans and their representatives plan to review it. Ken Bennett, the Senate's liaison with the audit team, said last week that a group will spend the following "days or weeks" verifying and "checking for accuracy" the report.

Bennett told CNN he wanted to "spread fact, not rumor" that this would only be a draft report and it would not be made public. The Senate team, will review the report and could ask Cyber Ninjas for further clarifications of its findings.

"Senate team will then review for accuracy and clarity for final report which will be released publicly," state Senate President Karen Fann, a Republican, tweeted last week.
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https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/22/politics/arizona-audit-report/index.html
 
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