Would the GOP types push the USA into default ?

[Tahuti]

More Democrats have guns than people probably think.... Democrats are just less likely to have more than 3 assault rifles per person.

Why not free guns for every adult a la Suisse? If giving presents is a left-wing thing, and gun-ownership a right-wing thing, I'd say this is an excellent compromise!

 

[Hygro]

I have to imagine some of these signs are from ironic protesters who know what they are doing.

Preliminary investigation bears fruit.

She's making trollface eyes, the background looks like a college campus, and there's a bearded post-hipster wearing a pink shirt, so yeah probably.

Plus, she made the sign too obvi.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Mmm, starting to sweat a bit now.
Keeping the govt. shut down is one thing. The debt ceiling is another.

48 hours from now the guarantee to fund everything in a legal manner expires if the debt ceiling isn't raised.


Not sure what the probability distribution is for defaulting on some entitlement/interest payment, but it appears to start low on October 17th and reach 100% on November 1st.

Already got a small taste of it with a food stamp glitch recently:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/12/food-stamp-debit-cards_n_4090647.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/14/food-stamp-recipients-flood-wal-marts-ebt-glitch/



Here's what happened the last time the United States defaulted on an interest payment in 1979:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6288.1989.tb00353.x/abstract

Abstract

Because of severe technical difficulties, the U.S. government was unable to repay investors in Treasury bills (T-bills) in late April through early May, 1979. This incident led to a 60 basis point increase in T-bill rates at the initial occurrence of the default. Unlike other information effects of that era, such as Henry Kaufman's predictions or Paul Volcker's “Saturday night special,” this increase in rates was not offset by a subsequent decrease in rates after the Treasury cured the default. The default apparently warned investors that Treasury issues were not completely riskless, which translates into a $12 billion annual increase in federal interest payments as a result of the 60 basis point permanent increase in interest rates.

Ouch, a permanent increase of 0.6% interest.

Today that would cost us mmm, $102 billion a year in extra interest payments on our debt.



If the debt ceiling isn't raised and Treasury can't get even more creative (rolling over $100 treasuries for $250 @ crazy interest, trillion dollar coin, fed forgives its treasuries, etc), Jack Lew might need to pick a law to break late October to avoid defaulting on some obligation.
http://www.businessinsider.com/morg...ck-lew-must-decide-which-law-to-break-2013-10

 

[Arachnofiend]

I have to imagine some of these signs are from ironic protesters who know what they are doing.

A very large part of the hyper-conservative base is old white guys that benefit from medicare or will soon benefit from medicare, and will defend the program to the death in the same breath they denounce socialized health care and Medicaid. People tend to appreciate socialism that they benefit directly from, it seems...

 

[Grisu]

Why not free guns for every adult a la Suisse? If giving presents is a left-wing thing, and gun-ownership a right-wing thing, I'd say this is an excellent compromise!

umm, free guns in Switzerland? hardly.

 

[Leoreth]

You get to keep your weapon from military service though, aren't you?

 

[Grisu]

You get to keep your weapon from military service though, aren't you?

yes and no (too bad that jein doesn't work in english, yo somehow doesn't convey the meaning )

While you're an active or reserve member of the armed forces, you'll get the assault rifle (or handgun for officers, medics and some others) to keep at home. It's still the property of the army, though. Once you're done with your service you have the option to give the gun back or buy it.

 

[El_Machinae]

A very large part of the hyper-conservative base is old white guys that benefit from medicare or will soon benefit from medicare, and will defend the program to the death in the same breath they denounce socialized health care and Medicaid. People tend to appreciate socialism that they benefit directly from, it seems...

People have an easy time feeling entitled to their entitlements.

 

[Ajidica]

I was reading a BBC article on the shutdown and the author commented that even if Congress gets its act together and managed to put to the floor a bill that will resolve the shutdown/default they may not be able to pass it in time if Carnival Cruz and his Merry Men decide to use parliamentary procedure to stop it.

Nice going Congress. This is why we pay you the big bucks.

 

[Leoreth]

Where is the gain in delaying something that will pass anyway? Forcing a default with no gain at all?

I doubt even Cruz is that crazy.

 

[Archbob]

Where is the gain in delaying something that will pass anyway? Forcing a default with no gain at all?

I doubt even Cruz is that crazy.

Hey, didn't GOP member filibuster something that the GOP supports? Yeah, they are that crazy.

 

[Yeekim]

What a silly, ignorant piece of garbage that blog entry was. Pure stool water.
I was born in Norway and have lived there for about 40 years. I can assure everybody that it is not all what that uninteresting person claims.
A good rule is to keep queit about things one doesn't know anything about.

Not to mention that the first 3 paragraphs contain so many outright lies that it's impossible to read beyond that.

So what did the author say wrong? I mean, he may, among other things, have overly dramatized the effect the system has on industriousness of Norwegians, but his final conclusion - that the system was made possible by the oil wealth and is hardly easily replicable elsewhere - still holds, no?

 

[El_Machinae]

Yeah, an additional $30k per year tax revenue from oil income is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[Murky]

It's looking like a default is more likely now than it's been in a long time, but let's hope it doesn't happen.

 

[Cutlass]

So what did the author say wrong? I mean, he may, among other things, have overly dramatized the effect the system has on industriousness of Norwegians, but his final conclusion - that the system was made possible by the oil wealth and is hardly easily replicable elsewhere - still holds, no?

Ah, Norway. Government-loving statists

Lie. None of the people looking at this are "Government-loving statists". If such a thing actually exists in the first place.

love to hold this place up as a shining example that big government and high taxes are good.

Lie. No one does anything because they think " that big government and high taxes are good."

Free education. Free healthcare. “Happy” people.

Yes, Norway is certainly one of the wealthiest countries in the world on the basis of GDP per capita… and in a variety of international surveys, it also ranks as one of the ‘happiest’.

And yes, Norway is one of the most heavily taxed countries in the world with a total tax burden of roughly 45% of GDP– almost 4x Hong Kong and nearly twice the US.

Lie. The US tax burden is about 37%, and for that we get much less services.

 

[sophie]

Where is the gain in delaying something that will pass anyway? Forcing a default with no gain at all?

I doubt even Cruz is that crazy.

These guys legitimately believe a default will be a net good for the country. I wouldn't put anything past them.

 

[peter grimes]

Well, he is crazy enough to think that he would get some sort of leverage over a Democratically controlled Executive branch and Senate if he shut down the government, so there's that.

 

[Kaitzilla]

It's official.
The food stamps program that feeds 1/6th of the USA turns off November 1st if there isn't a debt ceiling deal. (Not sure if the government needs to be reopened too)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-15/foodstamp-program-shutdown-imminent


I'd have thought that program would be 2nd in priority after interest payments.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Looks like the Senate just blew apart on the compromise they were working on and said No Deal.

Back to the House to make something.

Oh, and the USA might be downgraded again tonight. That's what, a few hours away now?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101087385

Senate negotiations have been suspended until House Republicans work out plan to proceed on debt limit and government funding, Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill) said.

The suspension comes as the US government comes closer to it's borrowing limit on October 17. Stocks dropped to the lows of the day on the news.

Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) told Bloomberg News that "it's all fallen apart."

Earlier today Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid lashed out at House Republicans, shortly after the collapse of a rival GOP proposal to keep the government open and raise the debt ceiling, warning that the U.S. credit ratings could be downgraded as soon as Tuesday night

Dow Jones reported that Fitch and Moody's credit rating services declined to comment on Reid's statement. Yields on one-, three- and six-month Treasury bonds spiked and stocks retreated.

The House GOP budget plan is a "blatant attack on bipartisanship," Reid said on the Senate floor.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said on Tuesday that "we're far from a deal at this point."

The politicians want a market crash to give them an excuse to do a compromise, but aren't getting it.
http://www.againstcronycapitalism.org/2013/10/does-obama-want-a-market-crash-to-force-the-gop-hand/

"They feel that a severe market sell-off would be helpful to break the logjam," said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group in Washington. "It would be helpful in making the Republicans sue for peace. Obama and [Senate minority leader] Harry Reid believe that."

Either the markets think we can't actually default, or they think such awful news will give them more QE.

Hah, the taper was just recently canceled. Guess the market knows what's what.

 

[Antilogic]

It's looking like a default is more likely now than it's been in a long time, but let's hope it doesn't happen.

These guys legitimately believe a default will be a net good for the country. I wouldn't put anything past them.

The fact that there is any statistical chance we will default by choice instead of just raising this arbitrary debt ceiling number and this is somehow good for us is utter lunacy. Words cannot describe the amount of face-palming and head-shaking I'm doing now while reading the news.

It's official.
The food stamps program that feeds 1/6th of the USA turns off November 1st if there isn't a debt ceiling deal. (Not sure if the government needs to be reopened too)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-15/foodstamp-program-shutdown-imminent


I'd have thought that program would be 2nd in priority after interest payments.

It's not necessarily that it is a low priority, it's that so much of the real stuff the government does is deserving of the high priority marker.