Debt-ceiling breach would push economy into free fall, without a government safety net
The Obama administration will have to decide whether to delay — or possibly
suspend — tens of billions of dollars in Social Security checks, food stamps and unemployment benefits if negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling are not resolved this week, experts say, one of the many difficult choices officials will have to make at a time when the government will essentially be running on fumes.
The government will begin Monday with about $30 billion cash in the bank and a little more room to borrow as a result of extraordinary measures launched in the wake of the debt-ceiling crisis. By Thursday, administration officials say they will exhaust all borrowing authority and have only that cash on hand.
Experts on federal finances say that money might be enough to make payments for a few days, but certainly not for more than two weeks. In any event, they say, President Obama will have to make untested decisions about who and what to pay because daily tax receipts will make up only about 70 cents of every dollar of necessary spending.
Economists at Citi Research ran a simulation recently that included a worst-case scenario in which lawmakers don’t raise the debt limit for an extended period of time. The model predicted that
unemployment could shoot back to 10 percent and the economy would dive into recession.
But the results “could have been worse than that,” said William Lee, a global economist at Citi, because the model assumes that in the case of recession, government spending picks up as more people qualify for unemployment benefits and food stamps.
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