Lexicus
Deity
Beto appears at this point to be an Obama clone but less charistmatic and polished. Also not black.
2020 US Election (Part One)
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GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
I don't think he's as bad as progressives rail on him for. He was one of 8 congresspeople to vote against an aide package for the Israeli Iron Dome in 2014 after the Gaza invasion. He's previously supported legalization for all drugs, and has spoken multiple times at length about US imperialism and dirty wars and coups in Central America and South America. I think his two biggest areas of need to fix are regarding fossil fuel companies and a still at times too optimistic view of bipartisanship. He thought the whole Problem Solvers Caucus was terrible but I think still deep down has a sense that some Republicans can be negotiated with. His consumer protection history is also kind of mixed with some good and some definite bad.
He's not the progressive wing of noms like Sanders/Warren, I'm not even sure he's where Harris is now (I don't know where to begin with her lmao) but he's much more so than a whole host of others from Biden to Castro to Klobuchar to Hickenlooper to Delaney.
He's not the progressive wing of noms like Sanders/Warren, I'm not even sure he's where Harris is now (I don't know where to begin with her lmao) but he's much more so than a whole host of others from Biden to Castro to Klobuchar to Hickenlooper to Delaney.
stinkubus
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His voting record is pretty bad, to boot. He's a transparent phony, but it just might work.
Lexicus
Deity
Why do you think so? Just a feeling?
It worked for Obama. But as as I said I think he's not as good (skilled) as Obama. And things have changed since 2008; I don't know that Obama himself could win this year.
stinkubus
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Mostly by the prices that futures contracts are trading for on sites that take political bets and current polling.
I won't be shocked if Kamala Harris is the only one of that group that survives Super Tuesday, and only because CA will vote on that date now.
Lexicus
Deity
Ah I see. I wonder what those bets are based on then - there doesn't seem to be much concrete information out there, and I'm not sure what polls there are are particularly useful this far out.
metalhead
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They're useful in the sense that candidates who poll into the top tier now have an advantage over those who don't. It's easier to maintain a high polling position than it is to break through to one, especially in a very crowded field where grabbing the spotlight is going to be difficult.
Harris has a clear advantage in the way the primaries are arranged. I agree that she will be in it at least through Super Tuesday, and to be fair her campaign kick-off has gone well.
I don't think it will take long before we see how Beto will fare. I'm very skeptical of his ability to actually do the job of president, but he is popular nationally with Democrats and already has a nationwide base of grassroots donors. He also has the kind of appeal that the legacy media loves - white, young, hip backstory, charismatic, and sticks to bland positive messaging. So he should get a lot of positive coverage.
Harris has a clear advantage in the way the primaries are arranged. I agree that she will be in it at least through Super Tuesday, and to be fair her campaign kick-off has gone well.
I don't think it will take long before we see how Beto will fare. I'm very skeptical of his ability to actually do the job of president, but he is popular nationally with Democrats and already has a nationwide base of grassroots donors. He also has the kind of appeal that the legacy media loves - white, young, hip backstory, charismatic, and sticks to bland positive messaging. So he should get a lot of positive coverage.
"President Hickenlooper".
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
I mean as much as it's easy to fall into a way of thinking that ONLY one type of nom can win, far and away when asked, Dems identify as Obama Dems nationally by a lot! It's the largest group identifier. Of course, more now identify as liberal for the first time. Registered Dems also like Biden and Sanders the most right now. So, parse that out! I think saying anyone is a sure thing or not sure thing at this point is ridiculous, and the reality is polling this far out is almost meaningless. The second reality is that policy continues to be largely meaningless, and online is not at all real life, where a Republican governor in Florida right now has overwhelming approval rating from Dems in the state, while in the midwest, 2018 was litigated a lot in part by a lack of black turnout, but Biden, Sanders, and Warren are all polling well, all of whom are white. But in the two years since, Republicans have lost a ton of white, educated women, soooooo saying it's going to be a man seems silly right now (this group could turn states like Michigan and Wisconsin). Thirdly, polling is so reliant on how questions are phrased as well it's easy to distort results.
Anyways, tldr, nothing at all is certain about anything right now.
Edit: Betting markets also have Yang as really decent odds right now, which is probably because his UBI policy is super popular among the people who run and participate in betting markets. I wouldn't put enormous stock in them this early.
Anyways, tldr, nothing at all is certain about anything right now.
Edit: Betting markets also have Yang as really decent odds right now, which is probably because his UBI policy is super popular among the people who run and participate in betting markets. I wouldn't put enormous stock in them this early.
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tsk tsk tsk... picky, picky
Vague progressive messaging is the way to go... especially for a relative neophyte like him. Soaring platitudes is all you need so long as people like you. For all the whining and handwringing you'll hear from the newsies about "needing to hear specifics"... the average American doesn't give a squeeze. They make the emotional commitment first, then fill in the gaps with their own justifications... "Why do I like her/him? Oh, cause she/he's smart... um, she/he's intelligent... uhhh, she/he knows her/his stuff... and she/he wants to do great things for this country and I believe in her/him..." and so on...
This time will be just like the last two times... there will be a flavor-of-the-month effect where the 1st and 2nd tier candidates will each experience a brief surge in the polls with one getting all the attention for a while, then they will fade back to baseline as another gets to be queen-for-a-month.
I think Beto hurts Bernie the most TBH.
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
Yeah I think he hurts Bernie and Harris the most, since those are the other two with a large under 40 base, which Beto has as well. They'll all be fighting for the younger adult/social media/college town voters.
Harris has a lot of people that are going to screw her math up royally, but I'd guess that Biden is the biggest one. Harris desperately needs the "Oh well may as well give this one a chance" vote... and she gets none of that with Biden in the race. She also needs a unified black vote and she loses that with Booker in.
On another note... It just occurred to me that Tulsi Gabbard has been really quiet since announcing. I would have expected her to be a big threat to Bernie, given how closely aligned she was with him last cycle. Does she have the "war hawk" label weighing her down or what? She was one of the people I was excited about post 2016.
Gori the Grey
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I listened on MSNBC to someone who sounded plausible sketch a scenario that a good number of people might poll pretty evenly in the early primaries, so that one could get to Super Tuesday and past without anyone emerging as a clear front runner. Wish I could duplicate the specifics for you all. But it resonated with me because I feel 1) we for sure don't have a heir presumptive this time, 2) each one of them has his/her appeal. One part of this guy's analysis was that a good number of them are good money-raisers and will be able to fund a continuing campaign for a long while.
With candidates getting so much better at taking advantage of the fundraising and messaging opportunities the internet/social media provides, coupled with the increased scorn that is getting piled onto big money donors and fancy-plate fundraising, you have a dynamic developing where it actually may be getting easier for multiple folks to stay competitive.
Berzerker
Deity
that sums up the last election
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Not hardly. Certainly not Trump.
That was a poke-'em-in-the-eye-to-remind-'em-we're-here election. The Democrats problem is that they still don't understand that.
J
metalhead
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Interesting, because I kinda see them as running in opposite lanes. Bernie is largely running a campaign against the system from the left, Beto is more of an optimistic, we're-all-in-this-together type of candidate. I think there is overlap in terms of the ages of people they appeal to, but I think they pull support from very different buckets of voters.
Think about it this way - how many people are devoted fans of both Chapo Trap House and Pod Save America? Probably not many. It's the best illustration I can think of to demonstrate what I'm talking about. If you're drawn to Bernie you probably don't have much interest in Beto, and vice-versa.
So I think Beto hurts Biden the most. In fact I suspect Biden has been waiting, in part, to see how Beto does. If Beto catches fire and shoots up in the polls, Biden might not want to get in.
Berzerker
Deity
it was that too, but Trump won the popularity contest...or Hillary lost it.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
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