2020 US Election (Part One)

[El_Machinae]

Trump can easily do better among the minorities, because Trump is quite willing to pit local minorities against foreigners in a way that Romney wasn't willing to. Romney's solution to falling minority opportunities was to 'provide opportunities'. Trump's will be to 'stop "unfair" competition' from elsewhere. The woo of the nationalist is pretty strong if you think you're within the nation. The Democrat's only real pushback is to try to conflate Trump's statement about racial groups elsewhere with how he'll inevitably treat racial groups locally.

(Hint: he aggressively commented on the NFL protests, and took a side)

 

[onejayhawk]

Trump can easily do better among the minorities, because Trump is quite willing to pit local minorities against foreigners in a way that Romney wasn't willing to. Romney's solution to falling minority opportunities was to 'provide opportunities'. Trump's will be to 'stop "unfair" competition' from elsewhere. The woo of the nationalist is pretty strong if you think you're within the nation. The Democrat's only real pushback is to try to conflate Trump's statement about racial groups elsewhere with how he'll inevitably treat racial groups locally.

(Hint: he aggressively commented on the NFL protests, and took a side)

OMG You mean Trump has learned politicking? Who knew?

I think the job numbers have more impact.

J

 

[Berzerker]

We pulled out of Iraq because we were supposed to leave by 2011 and we did, shortly afterward ISIS resumed activity begun under an earlier incarnation (AQ in Iraq). Then Syria went up in flames and ISIS had room to breathe. Obama's sin wasn't leaving Iraq, it was arming terrorists in Syria.

 

[Lexicus]

The answer is the same one I gave before, Trump is doing better among minorities than McCain or Romney.

This isn't an answer to the question I asked, which I suspect you know perfectly well. It is also false in the case of McCain.

 

[El_Machinae]

I think the job numbers have more impact.

Yes. I've certainly noticed that the interpretation of Trump's policy success is highly partisan. But I've long been in the camp that Trump will win 2020 if the imbalances he's caused don't manifest. I should have predicted that Republicans don't actually care about deficits. We have Trump calling for more QE right now, even.

As long as you have political permission to run 4% deficits to get 3% growth, where people are okay with the deficit rising faster than their wages, you can win 'on the economy' for a long, long time.

 

[rah]

Then you are being inconsistent. Sorry, but that's the way it works. The situation that resulted in ISIS was well known in 2009. We pulled out taking almost no precautions, To be consistent, the majority of the blame falls on the man in charge at the time, in this case Obama.

If there was no war to begin with, to me should take the majority of the blame, but you're entitled to your take.

 

[Zkribbler]

Then you are being inconsistent. Sorry, but that's the way it works. The situation that resulted in ISIS was well known in 2009. We pulled out taking almost no precautions, To be consistent, the majority of the blame falls on the man in charge at the time, in this case Obama.

Remember, the Iraqi government ordered US forces put of Iraq, and
Republicans in the House & Senate blocked a resolution which would have allowed Obama to use military force in Syria.

So yeah, let's blame Obama.

 

[zazazuzu]

Western thought never changes. The origin of a fundamentalist Islamic movement in the Islamic world has no basis in the Islamic world. It's all due to policies enacted in the West, by certain leaders, lol.

 

[Imaus]

Western thought never changes. The origin of a fundamentalist Islamic movement in the Islamic world has no basis in the Islamic world. It's all due to policies enacted in the West, by certain leaders, lol.

At best, you can blame the rise of Islamism, modern Islamism because this isn't the first time the Islamic world has seen Fundie dolts mess everything up - on a reaction to the West liberalizing before their eyes and some of that spreading to the Arab World such as the leader of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood who scrapped with Nasser and then the episode in Syria with Assad Senior. Wahhabism and Salafism in Arabia as well existed long before the West even thought of Feminism, for example, too.

That's their fudging problem for being reactionary, Fundie fudgs; not the West's, honestly. You could string out the blame even further and say that the Cold-War Capitalist West kicked themselves in the foot by fighting the more Leftist Leaning Middle East and then supporting Israel, but by them the seeds were already well damned sown.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Then you are being inconsistent. Sorry, but that's the way it works. The situation that resulted in ISIS was well known in 2009. We pulled out taking almost no precautions, To be consistent, the majority of the blame falls on the man in charge at the time, in this case Obama. J

So Bush signed the withdrawal agreement but its Obamas fault ?
What would you have done Overthrow the Iraq government again ? Obama already offered the democratically elected Iraq government huge massive bribes and aid.

 

[zazazuzu]

The Islamic world is a real one, it has it's own convolutions and gyrations.Of course, being invaded and occupied will have an impact, as they would anywhere on this planet. But to believe that societal movements that have broad native support, which have roots extending centuries, are solely about Western policies is... Western Wankism in the extreme.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Biden is crushing it in the polls...

We're so screwed... Trump is getting re-elected

 

[Arakhor]

Moderator Action: This is the 2020 election thread. Neither Bush, W Clinton nor Obama are eligible to stand again, so please actually discuss eligible candidates rather than endlessly reheated talking points.

 

[onejayhawk]

Biden is crushing it in the polls...

We're so screwed... Trump is getting re-elected

Democrats have a long history of pulling down frontrunners. Don't give up on Warren. She cannot beat Trump either but she can make a sensible platform to take forward,

Factual tidbit. Biden's campaign slogan in 1988 was MAPA (Make America Proud Again). Someone is sure to have an old poster lying around.

J

 

[Tristan_C]

Worker makes a widget in one hour, is paid $9, boss sells the widget for $20, has $11 of wealth been transferred from the worker to the boss here (and if not, what is going on?) and is there "decency" in this process?

If "worker" means the people working under a specific employment description for a guaranteed wage, then the remaining $11, which you deem "boss," means literally everything else going on within the firm. This is all the development, decision-making, and capital required; as well as all the risk. A decent process would be that literally everything involved command its/his/her price based on supply and demand, but that government can interfere to deal with externalities resulting from the production and consumption of widgets, as they can tax to provide public goods.

Here is where I’m not sure we agree: You see, I see the exact same phenomena of people lavishly spending and taking credit for other people’s work and value generated, lost and gained in the private sector.

It's just not as black and white as the situation with politicians and handouts. Those guys are total asshats.

Is not the world's current richest man the individual most responsible for our ability to order stuff online and have it in a day? But did he earn 150 billion dollars personally? While I agree with the sentiments, there are circumstantially-linked reasons for this wealth, and in their battle to change the circumstances, people need to beware of things happening which they did not intend. Who has a better performance record: Bezos or Maduro?

The American Revolution was founded on the idea that people should get unearned wealth.

How?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Democrats have a long history of pulling down frontrunners. Don't give up on Warren. She cannot beat Trump either but she can make a sensible platform to take forward

Warren missed her boat, just like Hilary in 2004. Warren's chance was in 2016. The country needed her then, but she deferred. Its too late now.

On a related note, there's a substantial segment of the electorate that seems to be experiencing a little bit of non-white-guy-POTUS fatigue. So I don't think any of the female candidates are gaining any traction... at least that's how it seems. There isn't enough groundswell for it. You still have plenty of women, conservative women in particular, saying that its inappropriate for a woman to be POTUS. Maybe 4 more years of Trump will do the trick... but for this cycle, its seeming more and more like Gavin Newsom should have run. Beto had some promise, but now... who knows...

With Bernie, too much of the "new guy" luster has worn off, and what you're left with is a older candidate who seems like just another familiar Washington'ite. I think that's part of why he's losing so much ground to Biden, they're both old, familiar faces, but Biden comes off as the "safer" choice.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

She cannot beat Trump
J

When you say "can't beat Trump" are you talking about in the election, or in the preferences of GOP shills like yourself?

 

[rah]

I'm not a shill and I don't think she can beat him either. But then I work for a company that predicted Hillary would win.
(or at least in all of our models but one) So what the heck do I know.

 

[Lexicus]

I worry that she can't beat him, or would if I thought she could win the Democratic nomination. Her fumbling of the DNA test thing did not inspire confidence. That said it doesn't look like she's going to win the nomination or even come close.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I think nobody's going to win it, with the batch of contenders we have now.