2020 US Election (Part One)
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onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
The Texas Governor has that purple-heart-and-wheel-chair-thing. It flies in Texas. He's also as conservative as Ted Cruz.
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Timsup2nothin
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I find that conservative isn't as big a drawback in a governor, since they are operating with someone else supplying currency. If they take their conservatism as a reason to play the GOP tune generally they can still be a problem, but governors are generally influenced as much by pragmatism as ideology.
Bamspeedy
CheeseBob
Yeah, I don't think it's a huge negative.
We've already had a president in a wheelchair. Elected him four times in fact.
On Duckworth, born in Thailand.....do we want to do the whole 'birther' thing again?
Beto has held elective office since 2005. Before that, he ran a successful business that did not involve mismanaging a casino into bankruptcy.
It's not so much about the general election as the primary. Being able to claim membership of multiple disadvantaged groups is popular among a variety of American left-wing types nowadays, and what I want is a candidate who could get plausibly through the primaries - despite a couple dozen candidates at the beginning - but still be popular in the Midwest for the general election.
The voice - yeah, not great but not terrible. It's mostly "not terrible" that is the important part. Hillary's voice just sucks, sounding like someone from HR coming over to scold and/or fire you, and/or trying to put a positive spin on downsizing or something. Not having a voice that is difficult to listen to, or difficult to take seriously, is about 3/4 of the battle.
I actually don't think it's completely impossible for Texas to flip blue. I think it's impossible that it would flip blue in a situation where it matters that it flipped, though.
Blue Texas 2020 would require an economic crash, a consequent collapse in Trump's popularity, and a Democratic candidate good at both appealing to Texas suburbanites and at driving up the vote among minority voters (i.e. Beto or someone like him). Under those ideal conditions, it could flip. I fondly remember my old home state Indiana voting for Obama in 2008, something I never thought I'd see. It took a combination of factors exactly like what I'm laying out for Texas in 2020.
Still, in order for it to matter, Texas also has to be the tipping point state or somewhere fairly near it. That's a concept Nate Silver introduced; I recently made a post about that in the 2018 election thread. If, for instance, you list all the states Obama won in 2008 from his largest margin to his slimmest, and go down the list, he gets to 270 with Colorado, where he won by 9.0%. Then he won a bunch more after that, with Indiana and North Carolina being his narrowest margins among states he won. Neither of those two really mattered, because he had already easily won the race without them. That's what happened in 2012, when he lost both of those states but no others, which meant he still won easily.
Of course, with 38 EVs, Texas is a giant. That many EVs still doesn't get it to matter a whole lot in any conceivable 2020 race, because it will still be substantially more Republican than the nation as a whole. Any scenario where the Dems win it involves them having already won in a blowout even without it; it just lets them run up the score. But as soon as Texas stops being guaranteed to be more Republican than the national average, it becomes the new super-Florida.
I forgot all about Duckworth - she'd be a solid contender. Voice is fine too. The Thai birth thing could be an issue, no matter that many of the people it would be an issue to supported or would support a certain Canuck by birth.
Abbott doesn't have a Purple Heart to my knowledge. He did claim to have won every track meet he entered his senior year in high school - yet he did not even make it to the State Championship, much less win one. The sweetheart insurance settlement he got from a tree that fell on him while he was trespassing on another man's land wouldn't be possible in Texas today thanks to Abbott's penchant for tort "reform". I agree he is similar to Cruz - not Presidential material.
Estebonrober
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I did not know that! well thats good to hear. Also trump isn't qualified to run a 711.
So, judging by the responses I've received, it's unlikely, but possible, that Texas will flip in 2020. But what about after that? It seems very likely to me that Texas will flip in the near future. What's going to happen then? It seems to me like the future is looking pretty good for Democrats
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Don't you think this is a bit silly? The Donald was running much bigger things than a 7/11 long before he was on TV.
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Gori the Grey
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FTFY
Trumps idea of running a 7/11 involves chapters 7 and 11 of the bankruptcy code
Honestly, I think if you gave him a couple hundred million dollars, he could figure out a 7-Eleven.
Say what you will about American Enterprise, but the United States is the type of country where you can inherit a couple hundred million and eventually become a billionaire
Say what you will about American Enterprise, but the United States is the type of country where you can inherit a couple hundred million and eventually become a billionaire
Estebonrober
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Yes. It was hyperbole, but I think others respond to your complaint summed it up pretty well. His business acumen was/is way overhyped.
Timsup2nothin
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But you can't fault his work ethic! How many people had paying jobs when they were three years old?
Gori the Grey
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You should know from having observed his presidency that drawing a salary =/= doing any work.
Yeah, that's the hope for them - they could develop a strong geographic/demographic advantage by roughly 2028-2036. In general, though, I've found they tend to overestimate the rate of change and overestimate the permanence of it. The "demography is destiny" mindset didn't exactly help them in 2016, after all. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of realignment occurs whereby the ideological split between the parties is substantially different than today, in ways that are hard to predict.
In related news, I managed to find a plausible Dem map where they lose despite winning Texas and Arizona. Lighter shades are for states that flip in my scenario vs. 2016.
Now I don't find it remotely likely that anything like this would happen, at least not in 2020. Texas is so far substantially less Democratic than North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, other Southern states with somewhat similar demographics and voting patterns. So if the Dems win Texas, they've probably already won those other three and the presidency. But it is at least not totally insane to imagine this kind of outcome - pulling defeat from the jaws of victory yet again!
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