2020 US Election (Part One)

[rah]

There were many different models in 2016. In most of them Hillary won. In a few Trump did. The election followed those.
Models are only as good as the data they're built on and the methodology used to interpret it.

 

[Commodore]

That's a Christian thing... most countries in the world aren't majority-Christian... particularly not the ones who would be looking for handouts from the US.

Doesn't mean there isn't wisdom in that statement that all can learn from. To put it in non- Christian terms: Don't criticize the house of another if your own house is in disarray. And for the ones accepting aid from the US, we can also throw in a bit of "don't bite the hand that feeds you" as well.

But whatever. You can't force people to like you. Which is why I am starting to think the US should become more withdrawn from the world and become a more inward looking nation rather than an outward looking one. Let other nations solve their own problems since they are clearly unhappy with our solutions.

 

[Gorbles]

I can criticise whoever I like, because even if there's something in my . . . house? Country? Sorry, I'm unsure what I as an individual person am responsible for across my entire country, but nevermind. It doesn't mean my criticism is inaccurate.

It's only problem if the specific issue is one of mine, and I'm using someone elses' as cover. That wasn't your line, though. Your line was "everybody else should fix everything they have going wrong before the criticise the mighty and unfairly-maligned America". Nah.

 

[Sommerswerd]

So, I am taking a certain amount of ironic pleasure in the various "takes" on Kamala Harris dropping out of the race thus leaving the frontrunners all white, without mentioning that black voters seem to be solidly behind Joe Biden.

Black people have been voting for white people since we were first allowed to vote... we're completely zen with voting for white people. It's white voters who tend to get all uncomfortable and cognitive dissonance'y and start coming up with vague non-sequitur excuses not to vote for nonwhite candidates.

Ding Ding Ding Ding.All the models I've worked with show a heterosexual white male aged 40-60 would do well against Trump in the battle ground states.

Dems haven't nominated a white male since 2004. A younger white male would probably be ideal.

The ideal candidate would be a charismatic heterosexual white male aged 40-60 IMHO.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Ga...vin...Newsom. He is the one the Democrats needed this cycle. But alas... he didn't enter the race.

 

[Dekker]

Without America though there's lots of things that could be worse. Say they went isolationist again after WW2.

Does the Soviet Union collapse(?

Crappy regimes they prop up. Free fodder for the USSR.

Middle East. Saudi regime collapse. Fairly awful state. It's replacement would likely be ISIS 2.0 with a lot of Petro dollars.

Liberal Western Europe.

Probably wouldn't be a thing. No NATO.

Korea. Communist 1950.

So depends on when you stop the USA being the big bad. If it's not them it would be someone else. Whoever that someone else is

Post cold war maybe, foreign interventions like Iraq are a disaster. 9/11 still happens, USA probably still goes into Afghanistan.

It kind of feeds into the point no matter what USA does people are gonna complain especially the left. They intervened in 1995/99 in former Yugoslavia. I remember the international socialists sided with the Serbs commiting genocide. If USA does nothing they're enabling genocide. If they intervene they're imperialists. If the cut a deal with any crappy regime they're also bad. If they use sanctions they're starving women and children.

It's literally no win with the far left no matter what the USA does or doesn't do.

I think that's what they're referring to. Some things were obviously stupid even at the time like Iraq. These forums were funny 2004.

Right because complaining about America's atrocities is lefty nonsense. The forums were funny because many people saw through Bushes bs and you were his stalwart defender. Always ready to defend based on ideology (anti left this, left issue that) and handwaving away real problems. You know it is possible to criticize things you support right. Nothing is as a whole all 'good' or 'bad' and silly hypotheticals have nothing to do with anything, the maybe we should go isolationist and show them! stance is laughable because America is what it is because precisely because it deliberately asserted itself across the globe. Defeating the Nazis, good for the world. Slaughtering millions of Vietnamese, pathetic. Good deeds don't justify bad ones.

I read an article about this by an African American.

Basically they hate Trump and want him gone. They think rightly or wrongly a white male is the best candidate to beat him.

Nominating a women didn't go well last time, Obama won but caused a backlash and was essentially a dead duck president.

Dems haven't nominated a white male since 2004. A younger white male would probably be ideal. Buttigieg is gay and that's not resonating with black voters. He also has the lowest numbers vs Trump in Wisconsin iirc. Gays not gonna fly in the mid west.

They're well aware of the reasons the Dems can lose. They see Biden as the best chance to win. Gaffes don't really matter (see Bush/Trump).

Sounds like you're projecting your opinions onto black voters. One article by one guy doesn't speak for all of them. Also blacks aren't more homophobic than the rest of America that that's the main issue most would have Buttigeg, and it's not like those issues arent clearly discussed in the media so interesting general observation you make there. You also keep saying wow no white dem can since 2004 as if there's been a whole bunch of nominations since then and the dem party must be anti-white guy or something.

 

[Zardnaar]

Right because complaining about America's atrocities is lefty nonsense. The forums were funny because many people saw through Bushes bs and you were his stalwart defender. Always ready to defend based on ideology (anti left this, left issue that) and handwaving away real problems. You know it is possible to criticize things you support right. Nothing is as a whole all 'good' or 'bad' and silly hypotheticals have nothing to do with anything, the maybe we should go isolationist and show them! stance is laughable because America is what it is because precisely because it deliberately asserted itself across the globe. Defeating the Nazis, good for the world. Slaughtering millions of Vietnamese, pathetic. Good deeds don't justify bad ones.



Sounds like you're projecting your opinions onto black voters. One article by one guy doesn't speak for all of them. Also blacks aren't more homophobic than the rest of America that that's the main issue most would have Buttigeg, and it's not like those issues arent clearly discussed in the media so interesting general observation you make there. You also keep saying wow no white dem can since 2004 as if there's been a whole bunch of nominations since then and the dem party must be anti-white guy or something.

Buttigieg wasn't connecting with black voters. It wasn't because they were homophobic but know that where it matters it isn't an advantage.

I voted for the NZ Labour party, which has a female leader at the time she was 37 yo unmarried and pregnant.

I'm self aware enough to know what flies here won't in America. I also didn't defend Bush here in 2004.

The left worldwide has generally been hijacked by the SJW brigade. It doesn't appeal to the center or even a lot if the traditional left wing voters in unions.

Things like NAFTA and mass immigration. Jobs are getting scarce, automation is increasing so why are we importing people to do low skilled low paid jobs where basic supply and demand would mean wages would go up with less labour available.

You're losing elections because you're not doing anything about what matters more to people (food on table) vs social crap.

 

[Commodore]

I can criticise whoever I like, because even if there's something in my . . . house? Country? Sorry, I'm unsure what I as an individual person am responsible for across my entire country, but nevermind. It doesn't mean my criticism is inaccurate.

It's only problem if the specific issue is one of mine, and I'm using someone elses' as cover. That wasn't your line, though. Your line was "everybody else should fix everything they have going wrong before the criticise the mighty and unfairly-maligned America". Nah.

I was talking more about governments criticizing each other.

And yeah, you can criticize who you like, but don't get mad when the person/group you are criticizing doesn't take you seriously if your own life isn't in order. Think about it, would you really listen to any criticism about your life if it came from a homeless crackhead? And no, I'm not calling you or anyone else who criticizes the US a homeless crackhead, I'm using hyperbole to illustrate the point.

 

[Dekker]

How is importing people the root cause of food not being in the table? And who exactly is doing this importing? Democrats beholden to the SJW worldwide brigade which must be secretly run by the Jews amirite?

 

[Gorbles]

I was talking more about governments criticizing each other.

And yeah, you can criticize who you like, but don't get mad when the person/group you are criticizing doesn't take you seriously if your own life isn't in order. Think about it, would you really listen to any criticism about your life if it came from a homeless crackhead? And no, I'm not calling you or anyone else who criticizes the US a homeless crackhead, I'm using hyperbole to illustrate the point.

Why, beyond a telling value judgement you ascribe to homeless people, do you think hyperbole helps the point?

I mean, think about it. It shouldn't matter where the criticism comes from, if it's accurate. You shouldn't discount its veracity just because if its origin - even if the origin is a website that always lies, you should be able to explain why it's a lie.

This is, to bring it back to CFC for a second, exactly why most forums have rules about attacking the point and not the poster. Attacking the "poster" is exactly what you're doing here.

 

[Zardnaar]

How is importing people the root cause of food not being in the table? And who exactly is doing this importing? Democrats beholden to the SJW worldwide brigade which must be secretly run by the Jews amirite?

Immigrants compete for low paying and illegal type jobs and drive up the price if housing. Mass immigration sorry.

Nasty combo of high rent/low wages.

And have you ever seen me make anything vaguely anti semetic. 0/10 for effort please try harder.

 

[Dekker]

Immigrants compete for low paying and illegal type jobs and drive up the price if housing. Mass immigration sorry.

Nasty combo of high rent/low wages.

And have you ever seen me make anything vaguely anti semetic. 0/10 for effort please try harder.

I prefer not to try to opaque my meanings with political correctness.

 

[Zardnaar]

I prefer not to try to opaque my meanings with political correctness.

I'm not very PC. Broadly speaking I agree with 90% of most left wing causes.

Mass immigration being an exception, I don't really care where they come from if you need more people open the taps, needs less close them a bit.

But you need to chose what hills to die in, you also need to appeal to the center.

In America that's more where they are located. What works in New York and California won't fly in the mid west.

 

[Dekker]

I'm not very PC. Broadly speaking I agree with 90% of most left wing causes.

Mass immigration being an exception, I don't really care where they come from if you need more people open the taps, needs less close them a bit.

But you need to chose what hills to die in, you also need to appeal to the center.

In America that's more where they are located. What works in New York and California won't fly in the mid west.

Saying you agree with leftwing causes while arguing nothing but ringwing ones, does nothing to better support your points.

 

[Traitorfish]

I don't know, I just don't buy that a white dude is the best candidate from an identity viewpoint. Primary voters are very different from election day voters, and whoever it is has to basically improve from Hillary on two of three lanes of midwest/rust belt black voters, midwest/southwest/east coast suburban women, or students/young adults. A white male can do that, but acting like that is the best play from a strictly demographic standpoint seems very very presumptive at best.

I think that, at a certain point, you have to trust the electorate to support the candidate who best represents their interests, rather than the candidate who most looks like them.

Liberal Western Europe.

Probably wouldn't be a thing. No NATO.

The US backed fascist dictatorships in Spain, Portugal and Greece, and would have done the same in Italy if the Communists had beat out the Christian Democrats. (As it is, they managed to, ah, supervise the elections to the correct result.) A liberal Western Europe was convenient for US policy in the region, but entirely optional.

 

[Zardnaar]

Saying you agree with leftwing causes while arguing nothing but ringwing ones, does nothing to better support your points.

You must have missed my stuff about gun control, higher taxes on the rich, expanded welfare, ease of voting for everyone etc.

But you need to win power. Insulting people, calling them deplorables and not being able to understand or relate to their concerns won't do it.

There is a large amount of anti Americanism online. Some of it is justified a lot isn't. Conservatives get sick of it internationally, then they get it from the liberals. Hell Americans here get sick of it.

 

[cardgame]

Sounds like you're projecting your opinions onto black voters. One article by one guy doesn't speak for all of them. Also blacks aren't more homophobic than the rest of America that that's the main issue most would have Buttigeg, and it's not like those issues arent clearly discussed in the media so interesting general observation you make there. You also keep saying wow no white dem can since 2004 as if there's been a whole bunch of nominations since then and the dem party must be anti-white guy or something.

Black people are statistically more homophobic than white people, but it has nothing to do with race really, everything to do with church membership and how often they go compared to other groups. This is the real predictor of anti-lgbt sentiments. Also Peter doesn't like black people which is why they don't like him. Pretty sure being gay is a non issue compared to Trump being Trump.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Doesn't mean there isn't wisdom in that statement that all can learn from. To put it in non- Christian terms: Don't criticize the house of another if your own house is in disarray. And for the ones accepting aid from the US, we can also throw in a bit of "don't bite the hand that feeds you" as well.

I think the one you're really thinking of is Matthew 7:5, which is essentially... "Take the wooden beam out of your own eye before you try to extract the straw from your brother's eye."

As @Traitorfish points out, John 8:7 really is more accurately saying "Don't kill someone/condemn someone to death for doing something wrong because you all have done something wrong at some point." It's not saying "get your own house in order before you criticize others" that's more Matt 7:5's jam.

Anyway I understand your point regardless and I agree that the US does alot of caretaking, protecting, subsidizing etc., worldwide, so it can seem like countries critisizing us is ungrateful or hypocritical or whatever... but I also keep in mind that no country has a greater interest in, or benefits as much from, global stability as we do, because we are such voracious consumers as a nation. I've also been an umpire/referee/coach for youth sports so I realize that when you step into that role... you've got to expect to take a lot of heat and be ready to do so... because half of the stadium always hates the umpire on every call he makes.

 

[Zardnaar]

Black people are statistically more homophobic than white people, but it has nothing to do with race really, everything to do with church membership and how often they go compared to other groups. This is the real predictor of anti-lgbt sentiments. Also Peter doesn't like black people which is why they don't like him. Pretty sure being gay is a non issue compared to Trump being Trump.

That's also a thing here. I think our first openly gay mp was on the right.

The Polynesians are more socially conservative than the rest of the left wing voters. Labour passed gay civil unions got voted out. The right passed gay marriage got voted back in.

 

[Dekker]

You must have missed my stuff about gun control, higher taxes on the rich, expanded welfare, ease of voting for everyone etc.

But you need to win power. Insulting people, calling them deplorables and not being able to understand or relate to their concerns won't do it.

There is a large amount of anti Americanism online. Some of it is justified a lot isn't. Conservatives get sick of it internationally, then they get it from the liberals. Hell Americans here get sick of it.

Right because conservatives are patriots and liberals hate America.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Yes, but there's more to it than strategy. There are a lot of elements to Biden's lead beyond "he's our best chance to beat Trump" and a lot of Dems are actually worried he is not best positioned to beat Trump. Biden isn't like, running away with electability polling. His black support comes from a number of reasons. And it has to be noted is very generational - millennial black voters are not really all in on Biden.

Inasmuch as I'm not really digging the idea of Biden being the nominee, I have to admit that him going at it with that random guy at the Iowa town hall made me cheer for him. He really laid into that guy... all but challenged him to a fight, and the dude deserved it. If you haven't seen it yet its worth a watch.