2020 US Election (Part One)

[Zardnaar]

Don't stay up. Newsfeeds updating live will inform you if necessary. Which is actually a bit creepy, but that's another issue.

Probably won't be asleep anyway.

 

[Takhisis]

Nor shall I, but I'll be probably playing videogames.

 

[Lexicus]

Is the link to an article talking about how Senate Democrats believe Sanders can beat Trump supposed to relate somehow to the question of effects down ballot? Intentional misdirection isn't your style, and you know me well enough to know it wouldn't work, so I assume this was just a slip. I agree with the cited Senate Democrats...anyone can beat Trump. That's not the issue.

First line from the linked article "House Democrats are warning of a down-ballot bloodbath" seems to indicate that I'm not alone in my concerns.

The full quote is

House Democrats are warning of a down-ballot bloodbath and centrists are freaking out. But Bernie Sanders’ colleagues have a more placid take on the rise of democratic socialist: Bernie can beat Donald Trump.

I simply do not find it credible that Bernie beats Trump and the Democrats lose the House, so...whatever you want to believe, I guess. I can't help but be reminded of how you and the Republicans were saying in 2016 that Republicans would probably lose the Senate (and the House, and the Presidency) because of Trump.

 

[Lexicus]

Yeah, Kyr, even Hillary could beat Trump this time. Thanks for pointing that out.

You really think so? I am pretty sure that Trump is going to win reelection.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

You really think so? I am pretty sure that Trump is going to win reelection.

The less committed people who thought "give an outsider a chance" are basically appalled at the results, and the core Democrats won't be as complacent. The same basic numbers as were seen in 2018 are to be expected in 2020 for Trump, but they may not flow down ballot if the GOP mounts the right defense.

 

[Berzerker]

should be a ? after that title

 

[Zardnaar]

should be a ? after that title

She didn't need to write a book.

What happened? Clinton was the candidate.

 

[Lexicus]

The less committed people who thought "give an outsider a chance" are basically appalled at the results, and the core Democrats won't be as complacent. The same basic numbers as were seen in 2018 are to be expected in 2020 for Trump, but they may not flow down ballot if the GOP mounts the right defense.

Trump is the incumbent President during an economic expansion and hasn't started any wars. The fundamentals of this election are better for him than they were in 2016.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trump is the incumbent President during an economic expansion and hasn't started any wars. The fundamentals of this election are better for him than they were in 2016.

You have to admit he has not followed very many norms. One of which being that even though all those things are true and have been true all along his approval numbers never change significantly. With all those things going for him his approval numbers would be sky high if he weren't a complete buffoon...but he is, so...

 

[Lexicus]

You have to admit he has not followed very many norms. One of which being that even though all those things are true and have been true all along his approval numbers never change significantly. With all those things going for him his approval numbers would be sky high if he weren't a complete buffoon...but he is, so...

Yeah, and running a campaign focused on what a buffoon he is and how we need a responsible, inoffensive, moderate President totally worked last time.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

He can just drag down his opponent into the mud with him.

 

[Berzerker]

She didn't need to write a book.

What happened? Clinton was the candidate.

and she got caught rigging the primaries against an opponent whose supporters she needed

if Bernie has a plurality and Biden ends up with the nomination I dont think they'll be too supportive this time around either

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yeah, and running a campaign focused on what a buffoon he is and how we need a responsible, inoffensive, moderate President totally worked last time.

The "give the outsider a chance" crowd wasn't convinced on the buffoonery issue back then. At this point there's no disputing it. The only problem is that the same people who said "give the outsider a chance" are the ones who while ousting Trump would likely say "the best government is a hamstrung government" and split their ballots. They put Democrats in the house when they couldn't get rid of Trump, but now that they can get rid of Trump they will view putting a Democrat in the White House as a call to vote GOP down ballot.

 

[IglooDame]

Yeah, and running a campaign focused on what a buffoon he is and how we need a responsible, inoffensive, moderate President totally worked last time.

If I recall, the retort was "he'll get more presidential once he's on the job". Not to replay 2016, but, if the Dems had nominated someone who wasn't the poster child for everything everyone disliked about the Clinton years, that person almost certainly would have beaten the worst Republican candidate since... no name comes to mind.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

and she got caught rigging the primaries against an opponent whose supporters she needed

if Bernie has a plurality and Biden ends up with the nomination I dont think they'll be too supportive this time around either

Meanwhile, back at Berzerker spouting debunked conspiracy theories...

 

[Zardnaar]

and she got caught rigging the primaries against an opponent whose supporters she needed

if Bernie has a plurality and Biden ends up with the nomination I dont think they'll be too supportive this time around either

Depends on where the numbers fall. If Bernie is in the late 40s yes.

If he's in the low 40s or even worse the 30s or if Biden outright puts up better numbers than him he has a lot less room or none to get the nomination.

He probably needs 60-40 on Super Tuesday to win although anything above 50 is good.

Lower than 45 though....

 

[IglooDame]

The "give the outsider a chance" crowd wasn't convinced on the buffoonery issue back then. At this point there's no disputing it. The only problem is that the same people who said "give the outsider a chance" are the ones who while ousting Trump would likely say "the best government is a hamstrung government" and split their ballots. They put Democrats in the house when they couldn't get rid of Trump, but now that they can get rid of Trump they will view putting a Democrat in the White House as a call to vote GOP down ballot.

It's like you know me...

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The "give the outsider a chance" crowd wasn't convinced on the buffoonery issue back then. At this point there's no disputing it. The only problem is that the same people who said "give the outsider a chance" are the ones who while ousting Trump would likely say "the best government is a hamstrung government" and split their ballots. They put Democrats in the house when they couldn't get rid of Trump, but now that they can get rid of Trump they will view putting a Democrat in the White House as a call to vote GOP down ballot.

Nobody splits their tickets anymore lol. Partisan voting is way way way too powerful. It was already extremely low (in the low to mid teens) during Obama/Romney and in the single digits by Trump/Clinton, and polling continues to show it declining.

Edit: Dems were way more likely to split ticket vote (Clinton + GOP congress) than vice versa (Trump + Dem congress was very very small). That was with the more "electable" politician

 

[Sommerswerd]

if Bernie has a plurality and Biden ends up with the nomination

That didn't happen in 2016 and it won't happen in 2020. The claim that this is going to happen is just a colossal strawman. If Bernie is leading in votes and delegates going into the convention he is getting the nomination, period.

You all need to get off CFC and go call all your friends and family and tell them to go vote for Sanders.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

It's like you know me...

I was like you for a while. I've come to believe that one side installs damaging mechanisms when given the opportunity, and if we alternate between them doing installations and hamstringing that prevents damage control removal of those installations we just get bad effects accumulation over time. We need to actually let the other side exercise some damage control and remove some of the bad apparatus or we hit the end of the rope.