Zardnaar
Deity
If enough if them boycott and hand the election to Trump.
2020 US Election (Part One)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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If enough if them boycott and hand the election to Trump.
Cloud_Strife
Deity
So baseless speculation on your end then, as usual.
Zardnaar
Deity
No if Biden loses because people stay at home thats on them.
You claim to want to change things. Step 1 is getting Trump out for SCOTUS if anything.
Biden might lose entirely on his own merits that's on him.
If you and enough of your friends sit out and Trump is reflected that's on you.
Ironsided
Flower of happiness
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It’s not over yet but it’s looking increasingly likely Biden will win with every primary now. Bernie needs a miracle debate, townhall whatever the DNC will allow. (fudging hell America, why are you so useless.)
Should Biden now win the nom I believe most Bernie supporters will hold their nose and vote for him only to get rid of Trump. Some won’t and vote third party, blank or not at all, you must respect that. Very few will vote Trump. Especially compared to other years like the 25% of Hillary supporters who went with McCain instead of Obama.
The onus must be firmly on Biden at that point to unite the party. He will have to give in and compromise if he wants all Bernie supporters on his side. That means at least something big like hopefully a M4A or a GND but will most likely be something less taxing but populist. The result will likely reflect the nature of the compromise. Biden can also do what his original supporters want which is nothing but take up space and continue rub elbows with the party establishment while the world burns, in which case he will lose to Trump.
Should Biden now win the nom I believe most Bernie supporters will hold their nose and vote for him only to get rid of Trump. Some won’t and vote third party, blank or not at all, you must respect that. Very few will vote Trump. Especially compared to other years like the 25% of Hillary supporters who went with McCain instead of Obama.
The onus must be firmly on Biden at that point to unite the party. He will have to give in and compromise if he wants all Bernie supporters on his side. That means at least something big like hopefully a M4A or a GND but will most likely be something less taxing but populist. The result will likely reflect the nature of the compromise. Biden can also do what his original supporters want which is nothing but take up space and continue rub elbows with the party establishment while the world burns, in which case he will lose to Trump.
Zardnaar
Deity
Yeah he should make some concessions to something Bernie campaigned on. Healthcare being the big one.
At first glance that seems correct to me... but trying to think deeper on that... I really don't know what is wisdom here
Even in countries where there is a far more cost effective system in place, and in steady state riding the waves of the normal demographic and technical changes, the national health care is a real headache file
For a drastic change I guess there will never be enough support in Congress and Senate. It will be like a major surgery with at the same time a heart and lung and liver transplantation.
Choosing a tweaking forward route for US health care will be a long road covering several terms. And that will be at high risk of disappointment from voters who believe it would be simple. Consumerist instantism is deadly for long term changes.
The technical hurdle of tweaking changes is I am afraid also that half-baked compromises during transition steps will cost more than any stable state: every term down that road has to end with a stable state that is both better as cost effective.
Every term has to demonstrate to voters that Health Care is in reliable hands when Dems are in charge.
To me it seems that the first priority (for that first term of Dems) should be to consolidate their position in order to win the next elections, in order to get the POTUS, Congress and Senate.
Some on Health Care... yes
but oh oh what will expectation management be difficult there.
And all eggs in one basket ?
Zardnaar
Deity
At first glance that seems correct to me... but trying to think deeper on that... I really don't know what is wisdom here
Even in countries where there is a far more cost effective system in place, and in steady state riding the waves of the normal demographic and technical changes, the national health care is a real headache file
For a drastic change I guess there will never be enough support in Congress and Senate. It will be like a major surgery with at the same time a heart and lung and liver transplantation.
Choosing a tweaking forward route for US health care will be a long road covering several terms. And that will be at high risk of disappointment from voters who believe it would be simple. Consumerist instantism is deadly for long term changes.
The technical hurdle of tweaking changes is I am afraid also that half-baked compromises during transition steps will cost more than any stable state: every term down that road has to end with a stable state that is both better as cost effective.
Every term has to demonstrate to voters that Health Care is in reliable hands when Dems are in charge.
To me it seems that the first priority (for that first term of Dems) should be to consolidate their position in order to win the next elections, in order to get the POTUS, Congress and Senate.
Some on Health Care... yes
but oh oh what will expectation management be difficult there.
And all eggs in one basket ?
It will take decades. It's the third rail here politically.
Boy, you're really not gonna like it when Sanders (and e.g. AOC) inevitably endorses Biden.
Yang's endorsement was very clearly a "he's not my favourite candidate but I recognise he has now won" endorsement. Every other Democrat on the left will do something similar in the coming months.
I for one do not blame Bernie Sanders.
As an independent, he did his mission and his job.
He instilled "faith" in younger people without too much antagonising of older Dem people (among voters !!!)
These two things are not mutually exclusive. They're also not mutually exclusive with blaming Biden voters for not helping Bernie to win. Multiple people can share blame for different reasons. If a Bernie supporter in a swing state refuses to vote for Biden in the general election, that could very much be because Biden has not done enough to win their support, for which Biden should be criticised. But that criticism does not absolve the individual voter of their basic moral responsibility for their own vote.
I was happy with her staying in while Buttigieg and Klobuchar were in. Warren and Sanders then got caught on the hop with the timing before voting. If there had been a further week between South Carolina and Super Tuesday, then I think Warren would've been more likely to drop out and it would've been easier to criticise her for not doing so. After Super Tuesday whether she endorsed Sanders or not was irrelevant, because a) he'd pretty much already lost and there's no benefit going down on a sinking ship, and b) there was compelling evidence that it wouldn't have helped him anyway, given those of her voters that supported him had already left her anyway.
So my hindsight view is that, yeah, it would've been great it she had dropped out before Super Tuesday and endorsed Sanders (even though my view that she was the best candidate had strengthened at that time). But I don't think it's particularly fair to criticise her and Sanders for not seeing the perfect storm on the horizon after South Carolina, particularly when that perfect storm seems to have largely come about because of back-room dealing. And I don't think it matters one way or the other that she refrained from endorsing Sanders after Super Tuesday.
So my hindsight view is that, yeah, it would've been great it she had dropped out before Super Tuesday and endorsed Sanders (even though my view that she was the best candidate had strengthened at that time). But I don't think it's particularly fair to criticise her and Sanders for not seeing the perfect storm on the horizon after South Carolina, particularly when that perfect storm seems to have largely come about because of back-room dealing. And I don't think it matters one way or the other that she refrained from endorsing Sanders after Super Tuesday.
Ironsided
Flower of happiness
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Yeah, you got to hand it to the establishment (useless) democrats. When it’s their own asses on the line they sure pulled it together fast and efficiently.
I disagree that it was already over by super Tuesday, I don’t even think it’s over yet. It’s a lot harder though, and you can see the impact of EW in the results last night as well.
I disagree that it was already over by super Tuesday, I don’t even think it’s over yet. It’s a lot harder though, and you can see the impact of EW in the results last night as well.
mitsho
Deity
The American primary process is really strange. The Candidates spend 6 months in Iowa and New Hampshire so that then afterwards ten other states where no campaigning happened can decide and lastly the 36 other states and territories don't matter at all. I wouldn't rank that very high on a quality of democracy scale.
It's always easier to state a strategy with the benefit of hindsight, but I struggle to find people who would have predicted a campaign development like this.
It's always easier to state a strategy with the benefit of hindsight, but I struggle to find people who would have predicted a campaign development like this.
Estebonrober
Deity
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Its over, hell even I doubt the wisdom of Bernie handing Biden his ass in a debate at this point. We really needed that debate between the tuesdays.
And isn't it fun watching all the corrupt democrats rally round the family? Such a sweet image as they milk health insurance companies for cash. MFers.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
Strategically, I think the early Iowa caucuses and to a lesser extent New Hampshire primaries are a good influence on the Democratic Party when they are working within the confines of the electoral college. Nancy Pelosi said it herself: a Dem. candidate can't just win San Francisco and NYC, they need to have a broader appeal and win states.
Berzerker
Deity
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485994-democratic-turnout-surges-on-super-tuesday
This bodes well for Biden in the general
and it was moderates behind the surge in turn out
edit: 2.28m voted for Trump and another 2.28m for Clinton in Michigan for 2016
from what I can see turnout for the Michigan 2020 Democratic primary was about 1.5m but with 93% of the vote in
Virginia turnout was 1.325m almost double the 780k in 2016 - wow
but in 2016 Clinton won the state with almost 2m and Trump got almost 1.8m
This bodes well for Biden in the general
and it was moderates behind the surge in turn out
edit: 2.28m voted for Trump and another 2.28m for Clinton in Michigan for 2016
from what I can see turnout for the Michigan 2020 Democratic primary was about 1.5m but with 93% of the vote in
Virginia turnout was 1.325m almost double the 780k in 2016 - wow
but in 2016 Clinton won the state with almost 2m and Trump got almost 1.8m
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I read an article this morning that Bernie is/was condemning the long lines at polling places in Michigan. The author of the article points out that there were long lines for college students, which of course was a key demographic for Bernie, and posted a tweet describing how one college student gave up and left the voting line, citing a need to get to work.
I will note however, that Michigan instituted "No Reason Absentee Voting", meaning that any Michigan voter could vote-by-mail in this primary, without having to give any justification for doing so. They just needed to get a mail-in ballot and vote. So I think Bernie's campaign has to take some blame for failing to make sure that all those college students were voting absentee. Someone should have let them know that they could vote by mail and skip the line and made sure that as many of them as possible did so. Someone should have told them that they would be waiting in hour-plus-long lines if they didn't take advantage of the mail-in option.
So to the extent that long lines had any significant impact on the college voter turnout, that's gotta be put on the Bernie campaign. They knew that the college vote was critical to their chances and they had another option available, tailor-made to counter the problem.
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