2020 US Election (Part One)

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How is it that Americans even see Biden as a valid option? @Owen Glyndwr
He can't speak.
When he can speak he makes no sense...
He's a mumble jumble insano beever.
 
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How is it that Americans even see Biden as a valid option? @Owen Glyndwr
He can't speak.
When he can speak he makes no sense...

Biden's support is based on name recognition plus a game theory process whereby Democratic voters convince themselves that other Democratic voters will only vote for Biden and so themselves choose Biden.

^this.

It's what happens when your party is a coalition of wealthy, educated coastal élites, minorities, and unionists, but the only media network that anybody actually pays any attention to caters exclusively to wealthy, educated coastal élites, and those same wealthy, educated coastal élites also recognize that there's no way they could ever win if it's just them voting for their candidate, but they're never going to ask minorities or unionists what they think because - breaking news - wealthy, educated coastal élites are, in fact, wealthy, educated coastal élites and only ever talk to themselves and are in reality every bit as disdainful of the browns and the poors as the Republicans are, so they have to go based off a caricature of a poor that they saw on an NBC sitcom one time.

Basically just imagine a party composed entirely of Bill Maher, and that's the capital-significant wing of the Democratic party.
 
I know I'm putting too much on you personally but you are excellent at putting word on what has to be. I wish you would be more involved.
 
Yes and no.

Hillary Clinton had a lot of plans, yes, but they were essentially in service of a narrative which read "things are essentially good and have been for the past 8 years. Here are a list of small tweaks I'm going to make to tune up the engine in order to expand on an essentially good system," whereas Bernie is saying "no the system is totally broken and has been screwing over ordinary people for thirty years, here's how we totally rebuild the system from the ground up to actually help people." Donald Trump demonstrated conclusively the veracity of the latter statement and the utter intellectual bankruptcy of the former. Sure things have been good for the coastal élite and investment bankers, but the laboring class in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Iowa, in Pennsylvania, etc. have been getting totally f'd over for years. Hillary lost on a platform of "things are good something something incremental change." Any candidate running on the same platform will lose again in 2020. If it's Biden we will lose period.

Secondly, I think Hillary's big problem with her plans (and incidentally a problem I see in Warren's campaign), was that Hillary's plans were framed in this technocratic expert device. Hillary's fundamental message was "give me the power and I will tweak the system in the following ways." The call to action in Hillary's campaign was simply to place your face in her, the anointed expert. Which has the dual problem of a) playing into the above optics-problem of an ivory tower coastal elite telling ordinary people they're essentially good in direct contradiction of their actual lived experiences, and b) doesn't actually motivate anybody for whom that message of "the Obama years have been good," might actually resonate. If all you're asking of a supporter is to "Be With Her," then that's all they're going to do. Bernie's "plans," by contrast read much more as a declaration of principles for a movement. They serve merely to make concrete and possible to people what up to this point were viewed merely as "nice ideas, but there's no way they're practical." The Green New Deal is essentially the same sort of idea: "Yeah yeah, fight climate change, let's do that...NO! here are the specifics we must, and in fact CAN work towards." I think Bernie is also aided in this political framing by his slogan and the way he presents his campaign. It's literally the exact opposite of Hillary's campaign. As I said, Hillary's slogan was "I'm with her," as in "place all of your faith in me and I will do the rest." Bernie's is "Not me, us." It's a direct call to action. Hillary's plan signalled to me "oh yeah, there's nothing objectionable about that, hope that happens." Bernie's makes me want to get up and join a picket line. I think there's a profound difference between the two campaigns.

So I said yes and no- what I mean by that is that no because there's no "wisening up" to be done here on the part of voters. You can pull it up, but I distinctly remember posting to this site on election night something to the effect of the wrongness of blaming voters for electing Trump for "voting against their interests," whatever that means. The way a voter votes is by definition "in their interests." It is not the responsibility of a voter to divine some absolute Hegelian/Socratic essence of the National Interest in the first part because that's fundamentally undemocratic, and on the second because such a thing axiomatically does not and cannot exist. On the other hand, I hesitate to say this is a "Bernie has wizened up" situation because his message in 2019 is more or less the same as it was in 2015-16, the difference, inasmuch as it exists, is that Bernie's objective, from my perspective, in 2015-16 was to get Medicare 4 All and Fight For 15 into public discourse and little more, and here in 2019, it seems that Bernie either has the same essential goal but is much more ambitious in his overall objectives (i.e. creating an actual labor movement for the first time in this country in 40 years) or else sees the presidency as an actually attainable goal this time, and so is actually articulating his manifesto more robustly. I will say though, that the Democratic party has definitively wizened up though. The Overton Window has definitely shifted left, and the candidates have all recognized the importance of appealing to the populist "middle" of this country. Biden is essentially running a carbon copy of Hillary's policy platform and he is coming across as an out-of-touch incoherent buffoon, and I think that says a lot about how dramatically the political milieu has changed in the last three years.
That's a good analysis and I thank you for it, but that' still doesn't predict how voters, who can react at things longer than slogans by saying ‘tl;dr?’ will respond to it. I agree that it's easier to empathise with a platform such as Sanders' which actually acknowledges the fact that crap is almost the default state for a large number of situations, rather than HRC's patronising ‘'Murica's already great, how can you not see it?’.

Βut we haven't measured yet how much pull it will have.
I was thinking of the same game-theory mechanism you mentioned while I was writing (damned WiFi!!!)… I also wonder how many people would vote for Sanders/Warren (to name the two most radical proponents I've read about) if they just thought ‘these people are too radical for others to vote so I won't either’. Maybe it could develop into a situation similar to the Abilene problem.
 
That's a good analysis and I thank you for it, but that' still doesn't predict how voters, who can react at things longer than slogans by saying ‘tl;dr?’ will respond to it. I agree that it's easier to empathise with a platform such as Sanders' which actually acknowledges the fact that crap is almost the default state for a large number of situations, rather than HRC's patronising ‘'Murica's already great, how can you not see it?’.

Βut we haven't measured yet how much pull it will have.
I was thinking of the same game-theory mechanism you mentioned while I was writing (damned WiFi!!!)… I also wonder how many people would vote for Sanders/Warren (to name the two most radical proponents I've read about) if they just thought ‘these people are too radical for others to vote so I won't either’. Maybe it could develop into a situation similar to the Abilene problem.

I really don't know how it's going to shape out. I think Trump totally changed the paradigm in this post-2007, post-Obama-(failure) world. I think, as Mark Blyth has correctly identified, populists on the both the left (AOC, Bernie, Corbyn, Obrador, Podemos, and the rise of Die Grünen) and on the right (Trump, Bolsonaro, Le Pen, Boris, Baudet, AfD, etc.) are the new normal, and consequently and simultaneously the Center-Left Neoliberal parties (New Labour, New Democrats, SDP/CDU, etc.) are going and will continue to go the way of the Dodo going forward. As I said in the previous post, I'm supportive of Bernie, and I genuinely think he would win the General pretty convincingly for the reasons I staked out above. I'm very skeptical, however, about his chances in primaries, but I just don't know. Trump has changed the electoral equations totally. It could be the case that all of the polls are totally wrong à la 2016, but by the same measure, Bernie's numbers have been basically the same since he entered the race: 15-20%. I'm leaning towards Warren will eventually become the consensus "compromise candidate." So I suppose that's my ultimate prediction: Biden will fade as he has literally every of the other 2500 times he's run for president because of his bizarre propensity to constantly stick his foot in his mouth (Trump's apparently unique capacity for gaffes to flow over him like water on a duck has exactly nothing to do with something essential about his personality and everything to do with his position as a populist critic of Neoliberalism), the party will ultimately center on Warren as a bridge between the Bernie wing and the Biden wing, and Warren will ultimately fail in the general because a) she's a woman (sad, but there it is) and b) because she will essentially build the same coalition as Hillary (i.e. white, coastal elites). Biden could win the nomination, but then it would be the same outcome: he wins the coast, but minorities stay home (because of a déluge of racist gaffes that somehow exceed even Trump's) and the unionists stay home (because he's billing himself as Obama 2.0) and he loses with essentially the same electoral map as Hillary in 2016 (with the caveat that he possibly also loses Virginia and loses NC even harder than Hillary did).
 
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Infracted for flaming
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How is it that Americans even see Biden as a valid option? @Owen Glyndwr
He can't speak.
When he can speak he makes no sense...
He's a mumble jumble insano beever.
It appears that you are actually describing Trump.
 
Biden still has the best numbers and the best numbers where the Dems need to win.

All the top 5 have good numbers vs Trump, the difference between the highs and lows might be the Senate.
 
Biden will lose badly in the first primaries. He is even worse a candidate than 2016 Hillary...

Maybe. To win I think you need someone like Biden who's not Biden.

In a general election, at least under normal circumstances. Trump's so repulsive it might be anyone can win but there's things like the Senate as well.

Beto might not be the best choice but if he can flip Texas, he came close without the DNC behind him. Probably to early for that and he might be better off for 2024 or 2028.

Trump will probably motivate the base better than any of the candidates. Perfect world Yang, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders 2016. My

World's not perfect though.
 
Apparently Trump is counting on the Ukraine to indict Biden as part of his reelection strategy. $250 million should do the trick.
 
Apparently Trump is counting on the Ukraine to indict Biden as part of his reelection strategy. $250 million should do the trick.

There is a lot to unpack in this story, because any specific detail really matters either way. Soundbite media is certainly not helping

It's a hard needle to thread. You want your top tier politicians under much more scrutiny than nearly anybody else. Ideally, you don't want a biased person controlling the purse strings of the investigation. Finally, obviously, you don't want to use the powers of the office for personal gain.

You want the investigation. You don't want 250 million reasons for the investigation to be biased in a certain direction
 
There is a lot to unpack in this story, because any specific detail really matters either way. Soundbite media is certainly not helping

It's a hard needle to thread. You want your top tier politicians under much more scrutiny than nearly anybody else. Ideally, you don't want a biased person controlling the purse strings of the investigation. Finally, obviously, you don't want to use the powers of the office for personal gain.

You want the investigation. You don't want 250 million reasons for the investigation to be biased in a certain direction
Yes, but in the recent NY State case filing regarding Trump's taxes, the DOJ has said that the president cannot even be investigated while in office. Given how the republicans are trying to change the rules of the game, choices are getting more and more limited.
 
Yes, but in the recent NY State case filing regarding Trump's taxes, the DOJ has said that the president cannot even be investigated while in office. Given how the republicans are trying to change the rules of the game, choices are getting more and more limited.

What is the point of checks and balances at this point?

This DoJ is so corrupt I can't even. I'd say its the worst part of this administration except the EPA is trying to kill the planet and the State dept is trying to instigate global conflicts. So . . .
 
You want the investigation. You don't want 250 million reasons for the investigation to be biased in a certain direction
This stinks of bothsides-ism. Details are pretty thin but just because Trump wants an investigation, that warrants one? Even putting aside the fact that he's asking this from a foreign power to go against his top election rival and also putting aside the massive quid-pro-quo implications, there's no reason why anyone should go along with what the corrupt buffoon wants just because he requests it.
 
Biden's son gets a bribe from a Ukrainian oil company thats under investigation and Biden tells the Ukrainians to fire the prosecutor in charge or they wont get a billion in aid (call Obama). Trump tells the Ukrainians to investigate or they wont get aid. Sounds familiar, Hillary pays foreigners to lie about Trump and feeds the BS to the FBI triggering an investigation of his campaign while he's asking the Russians to find the missing emails showing her corruption.

That isn't both sides
 
I doubt any foreigner's lies are more damning than what comes out of his own mouth.
 
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