2020 US Election (Part One)

[Kyriakos]

One of the bigger concerns not being spoken about is turnout was a looooot lower than expected. More 2016 than 2008, after it seemed like anticipation was super high. If Dem enthusiasm is slowing, for whatever reason, that's a huge electoral issue for them in 2020.

2008 was 12 years ago. Seems unrealistic to compare to that, no?

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

2008 was 12 years ago. Seems unrealistic to compare to that, no?

Yes and no. That was obviously a landmark potential election. But everything indicated this should at least be bigger in turnout than the last election, given how amped up the base is. Now, caucuses suck, especially on a school night/worknight, and between the impeachment, super bowl, and state of the union, the caucus didn't get to monopolize news at all. But everyone was expecting Democratic turnout to be massive because of how inspired the base is, and at least in Iowa, that seems... not necessarily the case, which is not a good trend.

 

[Kyriakos]

I was actually watching some nbc coverage early on, and it looked like they picked up some rigging on air too, with Warren not being viable in one room and also Klob and Yang not being viable, and they had two delegates between the three in total - but somehow, magically, those 2 delegates turned to 5 delegates and got shared

This (one-state) delegate system is stupid in the first place. Why not just count the actual popular vote and give each one as many delegates as closer to their percentage? Too difficult to rig then?

Anyway, Bernie's campaign released their internal caucus results. They show Bern at #1 and Butty at #2, with Bernie having 4% more.

Bernie 29%
Biden 11%

 

[rah]

More ammunition for trump to claim the whole process is rigged if he loses in November and not stepping down.

 

[Bamspeedy]

I get it, these things are inherently hard to organize without problems. But would it be so hard to publish the raw results as they were recorded and let anyone do or check any calculations? They're decentralized. Whatever was wrong could be corrected soon enough.

I'm sure your favorite writers already have their articles written they just need to fill in the blanks as to who benefited. They will have to wait just like the rest of us.

Honest question: What is worse (or more suspicious), 1. don't announce a winner at all until all the votes are 're-counted' or 2. Post results that all point to candidate A winning, but then say, "Nope, after we checked our 'math', candidate B was the real winner."

Man, this is just so....how much worse can it get? Such incompetence. Or should I say, should open rigging?
If the reports are true, the app was made by a company called shadow. How good is that? Worse though is that Buttigieg's campaign was involved in financing this app??? And a superpac is involved as well. The DNC really wants to hand this right to Trump as they are too scared of Bernie.

Here I was expecting the app to be connected somehow to Trump and/or the GOP.....until I read Bootygig claiming victory then I knew people would find a way to connect him to it.

So it looks like Trump won the Iowa caucus?

Clean sweep. Trump wins both Republican and Democratic Iowa caucuses.

 

[onejayhawk]

So, Bernie is projected to win Iowa (and obviously the next primary as well). Can Biden at least be "a strong 4rth"?

Biden 4th is the real story of the night, ie the one that lingers. Super Tuesday is in four weeks, as in California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina and several smaller states. Small laughs by the water fountain will kill Joe as surely as an Soleimani bomb.

J

 

[Kyriakos]

You don't need to try much to find a way to connect Butt to financing the app, if his money co-financed it. Which is a conflict of interest too, even if it would have worked - let alone now, when this is disgustingly failed.
So now it is what, almost one full day since the vote? ...

 

[Estebonrober]

Low voter turnout might be the story if it carries over the New Hampshire.

 

[onejayhawk]

Low voter turnout might be the story if it carries over the New Hampshire.

For once I agree with you. Party enthusiasm has taken some major hits since 2018.

J

 

[Arakhor]

More ammunition for trump to claim the whole process is rigged if he loses in November and not stepping down.

Trump doesn't need ammunition. When he can tell blatant lies that are easily disproved by photos and his base still laps it all up, you have to wonder if people really do want an autocrat in power.

 

[onejayhawk]

Trump won't need ammunition. His race is already 90% secure.

That won't satisfy him, though. He wants to punish the Democrats in the House.

J

 

[Cloud_Strife]

Trump doesn't need ammunition. When he can tell blatant lies that are easily disproved by photos and his base still laps it all up, you have to wonder if people really do want an autocrat in power.

The gop wants a strong man that will punish the uppity Queers, blacks and women, put them in their places and elevate Christianity above all else.

Basically sickness

 

[hobbsyoyo]

My greatest fear in all this is that we just got a preview of election night 2020. Between the systemic shuttering of polling stations in urban and ethnic areas by the GOP, the starving of election funds to state voting agencies by the GOP, the reliance on insecure and unreliable voting machines and systems by everyone, the open invitation for foreign interference by Trump and Mitch McConnell's insistence on not doing anything about all of the above - we are staring disaster in the face.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

My greatest fear in all this is that we just got a preview of election night 2020. Between the systemic shuttering of polling stations in urban and ethnic areas by the GOP, the starving of election funds to state voting agencies by the GOP, the reliance on insecure and unreliable voting machines and systems by everyone, the open invitation for foreign interference by Trump and Mitch McConnell's insistence on not to do anything about all of the above - we are staring disaster in the face.

Republicans don't care

 

[luiz]

According to fivethirtyeight, if the Iowa early coverage bounce is reduced to zero, Biden's odds of winning the nomination would increase from 43% to up to 50%, in their model. So the beneficiary of the screw-up is clear, even if the culprit is not.

Sanders would get screwed and Buttigieg would get absolutely finished.

 

[Narz]

So are there gonna be any republican debates?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Republicans don't care

Oh I think they do care. They're taking notes as this unfolds.

 

[Sommerswerd]

2008 was 12 years ago. Seems unrealistic to compare to that, no?

Its a good thing to compare to because it shows that population increase =/= higher vote counts. For example whenever it gets brought up that the Democrats got such a high number of votes historically in 2016 someone counters with... "Well that's only cause of population increase... vote totals go up every year"... but what last night shows is... no... they don't.

That boondoggle last night plays right into Trumps hands and it completely bolsters the complaints/fears among Bernie voters that the DNC is conspiring against him. Bernie was killing it last night and Biden especially was getting crushed... "non-viable" in almost every location I saw last night... but all that is getting swept under the rug with this squeeze-show. If the results had gotten released on-time last night there'd be widespread calls for Biden to resign today. Instead Biden's camp is poo-poo'ing the disastrous results as illegitimate.

Meanwhile Bootyjudge has declared victory and if the final counts don't support his claim, he will just join Biden in disavowing the results entirely. And since Bernie didn't claim the frontrunner status last night he is going to continue to be downplayed... even worse... with no definitive result we aren't going to get anyone else to drop out. New Hampshire has already basically been called for Bernie, so its a lose-lose scenario for Bernie there. If/when he wins the result will be hand-waved as a predictable "home-field" result... and if he miraculously loses it will be treated as the upset of the year, and proof that he can't possibly win.

What a disaster... almost as bad as the Superbowl result

 

[Farm Boy]

Has population increased in Iowa?

Edit: I looked it up. It's grown like 4.1% or so over 10 years.

 

[Bamspeedy]

Its a good thing to compare to because it shows that population increase =/= higher vote counts. For example whenever it gets brought up that the Democrats got such a high number of votes historically in 2016 someone counters with... "Well that's only cause of population increase... vote totals go up every year"... but what last night shows is... no... they don't.

There are ups and downs to voter turnout year to year, but general trend is more people=more votes.

I find it funny how there is big headlines in TV viewership numbers (Super Bowl, World Cup, Olympics, etc.) how 'new record for number of people who watched it' as if this shows these events are more popular now than before. No, there is just more people now.