What an ironically timely and apropos comment
2020 US Election (Part Two)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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That's happening regardless... Joe Biden or no Biden.
Oh come on ... that wasn't funny? I get the "lawyer" stuff for that? You don't get it? Cause the masks and the people wearing them and not wearing them... jeez, tough crowd.
I just wanted to back and take note of this... this is milk-squirts-from-nose funny. I literally can't resist laughing every time I read it. There I go again Thanks Egon
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Right now, RCP is showing Biden at 49.9% and Trump at 42.3%. They use registered voters and likely voters for those polls. So that leaves 7.8% of the vote unaccounted for. Last year, per wikipedia 5.7% voted third party or write in. If that holds, and given that turnout in 2016 was 55.7%, I think that means we can expect 3.17 (round to 3.2)% to vote third party. That leaves 4.6% unaccounted for. So my question is, what percent of those registered voters are going to:
1. Vote Trump but they just wont say?
2. Vote Biden but they just wont say?
3. Sit it out?
4. Are truly still trying to figure out whether they are going to vote for Biden or Trump?
Obviously we don't know, I'm just asking for guesses. Also keep in mind that I've already made an assumption of all the third-party/write-in votes based on last year will be 3.2% so that's not part of the question. I'm treating it as a known factor. Anyway, I'll go first.
1. I think at least half of the remaining votes are people who know that they are voting for Trump but they just don't want to say so. So that's 2.3%, leaving 2.3%
2. I'd say those who won't disclose that they are voting for Biden is less than 1%, I'll guess 0.5%. So that leaves 1.8%
3. I'd say the vast majority of those remaining have no intention of voting, say 1.7%
4. The remaining 0.1% are the folks I see as really still trying to decide between Trump and Biden
1. Vote Trump but they just wont say?
2. Vote Biden but they just wont say?
3. Sit it out?
4. Are truly still trying to figure out whether they are going to vote for Biden or Trump?
Obviously we don't know, I'm just asking for guesses. Also keep in mind that I've already made an assumption of all the third-party/write-in votes based on last year will be 3.2% so that's not part of the question. I'm treating it as a known factor. Anyway, I'll go first.
1. I think at least half of the remaining votes are people who know that they are voting for Trump but they just don't want to say so. So that's 2.3%, leaving 2.3%
2. I'd say those who won't disclose that they are voting for Biden is less than 1%, I'll guess 0.5%. So that leaves 1.8%
3. I'd say the vast majority of those remaining have no intention of voting, say 1.7%
4. The remaining 0.1% are the folks I see as really still trying to decide between Trump and Biden
He doesn't have to do much there, because he only needs to oppose Trump's policies. "I won't try to gut ACA. I will not try to start a war with Iran. I will treat Russia and China as the greatest international threats to the US. I will mend fences with our allies. I will avoid trade wars and lower tariffs." You want to vote for something? How about running a government like a government instead of like an organized crime family.
This is a big ouch moment, but if enough greenies (Takhisian neologism, feel free to use it) win primary races for legislative seats it might become a de facto policy anyway.
Patine
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The lack of viable third (and more) choices is the real betrayal and the real crime. It's not Russian hackers threatening legitimate elections - it's a big inside job, and it's been going on unabated for decades. The irony that the so-called "Leader of the Free World," is not actually chosen in a free-and-fair, truly contended, election is a massive and grave political atrocity.
There have been multiple 3rd choices, they just didn't win the primaries. It's a two party system, but that doesn't mean there's only two choices, because each party is a funnel
Patine
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The fact that it IS a strictly two-party system, and you have to win a major party nomination, of which only two are given for each election for each office, not to mention that those primaries are highly unrepresentative and easily manipulated (as well as the fact that 1980 - 40 years ago - was the last time a significant and real challenger - or anyone but a token "distraction," was allowed to make a primary challenge against an incumbent running President for re-election) is EXACTLY why I am correct, and not wrong, in my indictment in the U.S. electoral system and it being free-and-fair.
Ajidica
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How, exactly, will third parties magically solve the problems with US elections?
To govern, a party or group of parties need to get 51% of legislative seats. The US system effectively forms its coalition ahead of the election instead of after the election. If the US were to have multiple political parties, we would expect them to form the same coalitions that the Democrats and Republicans represent now; excepting possibly an coalition of center left and center right which due to how the US electorate is structured, is likely to lead to a one party dominance like post-war Japan.
A certain Allan Lichtman, who actually forecast Trump as the winner in 2016, says that the Democrats will win the presidency and the Senate this year.
(interview translated incompetently into Spanish, no paywall)
(interview translated incompetently into Spanish, no paywall)
Patine
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This is part of the problem. Post-election coalitions can force compromise and accountability and ways pre-election just can't.
It's impossible to know that without the long history of the current two-party system with no meaningful alternative or challenge as having been available. And, also, remember, Socialism in the first half of the 20th Century was not defeated by better ideas, lack of interest by the working class, and electoral failure by it's candidates - the bipartisan abuse of power of Constitutional rights and driving such candidates off the ballots through terrorizing and coercing them called the "Red Scare." But the solid Duopoly control of everything, including electoral mechanics, was needed for that mass political suppression.
That strikes me as HIGHYLY unlikely. Japan has one of the most apolitical electorates, on average, in the First World. That analog doesn't even remotely fit.
Berzerker
Deity
He has China's vote
sophie
Break My Heart
Eh, hoping for a third party is a pipe dream. At this point there are institutional and cultural barriers that make it literally impossible. If you want to move the Dems to the left, the way to do so is to do what the DSA is doing: organize a ready-made, well-trained volunteer force, and offer it to viable left-wing candidates in exchange for toeing the DSA party line. Usually all it takes is a few dozen enthusiastic, experienced, and committed volunteers backing a credible, composed candidate to win a primary. And by doing so, you create an actual bloc within the dems who is loyal to the DSA, who can be expected to move en masse to compel votes on desired policy, it provides a useful and credible threat to centrists: vote for our policies or we'll sic our volunteer army on your district and oust you too, and all without needing to create a ballot line, hold primaries, or convince committed voters to leave their ancestral party for some unknown, alien entity.
This has been the explicit DSA strategy since 2018, and so far it's had some modest success in DC, NY, and Chicago, with major coups this year in NY, DC, Austin, and Tennessee.
Sounds intriguing... so what happened with Biden? Or is it that they are new and need time to grow?
I think people will do well to pretend they forgot Warren sort of stuck around in the primaries when the Biden-group quit en masse to empty the field for Biden-Biden. Warren having no honor or shame, didn't mind coming third in her own state - the goal was just to make sure Bernie won't win the nomination.
I think the DNC has to realize that they are so messed up they lost to Trump, and risk losing to Trump a second time. What would happen if the republican party actually had a non-clown as candidate/president?
I think the DNC has to realize that they are so messed up they lost to Trump, and risk losing to Trump a second time. What would happen if the republican party actually had a non-clown as candidate/president?
wat
Here is his campaign slogan and tag line for every ad:
I will run the government like a government instead of like an organized crime family
And a key part of that working is, y'know, voting for the Democrats.
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