1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

2020 US Election (Part Two)

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Lexicus, Mar 11, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Farm Boy

    Farm Boy You gave me my own tail?

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2010
    Messages:
    19,266
    Bleh.
     
  2. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    44,928
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    Probably only partially true. The OSTP will definitely give updates and spin them in order to highlight how they are tracking the President's expressed wishes. It's their job, after-all, to enact science policy under his direction. And it's his job to describe his vision for science policy.
    Here's an example (before Obama won 2016)
    https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/aaas_forum_jph_04-14-16.pdf

    Remarkably less pretty than the Trump one :lol: Probably made more sense over the conference call. edit: also contains the word 'unprecedented' which Trump's 'like no one has ever seen' has probably forever ruined.

    And here's the OSTP forwarding a Press Release (Nov 30) touting accomplishments (after he'd won 2016, which is vastly more acceptable).
    https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/administration/eop/ostp/pressroom

    But you're right about the commandeering additional forces, in order to make a large and 'for public release' report.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2020
  3. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2000
    Messages:
    19,457
    Location:
    the golf course
    Kinda depends on how we define unhappy, but he's identified a half dozen or so by name.

    I vote libertarian and that political compass test has me at ~0 on the left-right economic axis and -3 down the social scale. Yes, anti-both parties, they're warmongers. You'll have to show me these actions and claims.

    This forum is largely Democrats or adjacent so there aren't many Republicans to debate and they usually dont post on subjects I care about. Things like the drug war, pledge of allegiance, flag burning, and whistleblowers like Manning and Snowden are about it.

    Yes, I've been accused of defending or shilling for the Republicans but when I asked for proof none was provided. I probably wouldn't even bother defending Trump if not for Russiagate. I dont take kindly to coups run thru the DoJ. But I will lmao if Trump appoints a special counsel to investigate Obama's DoJ if he loses, then we can watch Joe try to shut it down.

    I linked the political compass showing the 4 candidates before, here it is again.

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

    I'd like to see where all these Biden supporters show up on that graph. I'm actually a little closer to Howie Hawkins of the Greens than Jo. But I can pretty much guarantee the forum's Biden supporters are mostly in the minus on both scales - the quadrant opposite of Biden.

    You guys and gals are voting for a right wing authoritarian and usually when I defend Trump, its from people making right wing authoritarian arguments. Russiagate is a great example - the Democrats sent lies to the FBI for their allies to use convincing a Fisa court to permit spying on political opponents. Now is that right wing or left? Trump tries to get us out of a couple wars and Democrats are mad. What is left and what is right?

    Trump hate has turned supposedly left wingers into raging right wingers. Look at Antifa and BLM, they go around destroying neighborhoods because they oppose fascism and policed brutality. They are fascists, they brutalize innocent people and 'the left' remains silent or endorses their terrorism.

    Somebody give Obama a parking ticket for helping terrorists sacrifice Syrian babies on the altar to Allah. Sorry, he had bipartisan support for that. Parking tickets for everyone involved, even those Republican monsters.

    I'll have to remember that the next time you go on a rant
     
    KaibaCorp likes this.
  4. Drakle

    Drakle King

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2014
    Messages:
    674
    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ga_102820/

    Very good Georgia poll for Democrats. Ossoff is so close to clearing the runoff threshold.

    Loeffler and Collins is still an open race for making the second slot. Loeffler has immense money and both of them have been savaging each other, but Republicans in this poll seem to think she is the better Trump backer. But doing that might give her the second slot, but makes it so much weaker. I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans lose the Georgia runoff because Trump won't shut up, and makes himself still an issue.

    https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1321566694339350528


    Anyway, this is still not a close race, Presidentially. Biden has an immense lead. But the Senate races are. Kansas, Georgia, Montana. Lots of very close races, in very red territory.

    Political compass tests are garbage particularly that one. It has Warren in Authoritarian right. By that logic, 90% of the US population is in Authoritarian right.

    Seriously, do you expect us to take this seriously?



    Here is how voters are actually charted by real pollsters.

     
    hobbsyoyo and EdmundIronside like this.
  5. Arwon

    Arwon

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2006
    Messages:
    18,781
    Location:
    Canberra
    This might be the election where anti black voter suppression in Georgia really comes in clutch for the Republicans
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  6. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2008
    Messages:
    6,045
    Isn't that every election in Georgia?
     
  7. RobAnybody

    RobAnybody Emperor

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2009
    Messages:
    1,070
    I view the claim "Accomplishments of Trump's First Term: Ended the Pandemic" the same way I viewed "Mission Accomplished" in regards to Iraq.
     
    hobbsyoyo and EdmundIronside like this.
  8. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Messages:
    19,588
    Location:
    Sydney
    Libertarians are aligned with Republican party
    I think its just hilarious at the mental gymnastics as you defend Trump policies, bending into a preztel defending Trumps appointment of a Neocon (Bolton) and hes friends into power, Trumps trade wars, protectionism on steel, Trumps drawning of sharpies on weather map.

    The pot is boiling and people are dying by the hundreds of thousands. A high price to pay for ending both the Clinton and Bush political dynasties.
     
  9. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    7,588
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Philippines
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  10. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    50,773
    Location:
    up yours!
    started instead of avoiding/preventing it in the first place
    not really ended/accomplished
    worsened by incompetence, self-contentedness and self-deception
    disproportionately affects minorities and the already disadvantaged
    used for social division and as an electionary prop
    comes against any sort of wisdom or science, just informed by personal profit and personal grudges
     
    Drakle likes this.
  11. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Messages:
    19,588
    Location:
    Sydney
    A lot of people are going to die from all these rallies.
    The GOP seem intent on their Herd mentality stratergy

     
    hobbsyoyo and EdmundIronside like this.
  12. Drakle

    Drakle King

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2014
    Messages:
    674
    Killing his own supporters. Top minds.


    Anyway early vote analysis of Texas

    https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321542576504188928



    White college and Asian voters have surpassed the 2016 total. African Americans and Hispanics are close to their 2016 turnout. While non-college white voters are lagging even 2018. Missing over a million votes from 2016, most of which lean GOP.

    The margin of victory in 2016 was only 800,000 votes. A lot, but not that much in such a large state. Democratic-leaning groups are up, Republican-leaning ones are down. Maybe they show up on election day. But even only dropping from 2016 to 2018 numbers could cost Republicans a few hundred thousand votes.

    Of course, the overall Texas electorate is still majority white, even as the adult electorate is actually minority-majority. So Democrats do still have untapped depths to call up.

    And the margins of most groups have swung towards Democrats. So the turnout deficit dropping the Republican advantage to say only half a million votes puts the state into winnable range for Democrats, as they win over more former Republican/Trump voters.

    See the 2018 analysis where most of the Democrats gains were from voter conversion but turnout did help. Nationwide, not Texas-specific.



    This was very different from a Democratic incumbent midterm, where it was mostly just turnout and not people suddenly hating Obama



    Texas used to be a Republican threshold because Democrats lost white non-college voters decades ago in the 60s and 70s, (more heavily at the top, and rippling down-ballot until the Governor in the 90s), while college white were a Republican strong point. Along with narrowing the margins with Hispanics, which was a strength of the Bush's. Trump's non-college white gains didn't mean anything in Texas because Republicans were basically already maxed out, but has broken the hold, or the margins narrowing that Texas Republicans used to get up to with everybody else.


    Anyway, the national vote is up to 75 million.

    And a lot are first-time or infrequent voters

    Some infrequent voters might be Trump supporters. But the majority are not.
     
    EdmundIronside likes this.
  13. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    10,421
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    America!
    Mr. 'fracking ban' and 'move away from an oil-based economy' isn't going to win Texas.


    But now that you mention it, let me write down all the polling predictions now before Trumps inevitable victory. :D
    Or at least the "poll tightening" that Republicans get the final week as the giant dem advantage floats back into the margin of error to keep reputations intact.

    538 - Biden 88% chance of winning!
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

    Real Clear Politics - Biden has a 7 point lead compared to Clinton's 3 point lead in 2016.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

    Bookies are giving Biden 66% odds, but betters are betting more $$$ on Trump winning.
    https://www.newsweek.com/seven-days...oney-has-been-bet-trump-winning-biden-1542440

    Biden has a 17 point lead in Wisconsin! :eek:
    I really want to see if this one turns out to be true.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/

    17 point lead, gold standard. :coffee:
    Rather surprising considering that people tend to vote for the same party each election.

    Anyway, I called Clinton to win for sure in 2016.
    Harder to trust polls this time around.
     
  14. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2000
    Messages:
    19,457
    Location:
    the golf course
    Its better for life... I think that makes it better for us.

    Sea levels will be a problem, much of Florida was under water ~125kya (those damn Atlanteans). And we're not only heading that way, I dont think we can stop it. We're gonna have to figure out how to suck CO2 out of cars and the atmosphere. Or rebuild inland... too

    Locking water up in ice is not optimal, when ice melts it increases habitat, aquifers and precipitation. But the land we lose to rising seas also means more land for crops and life in general to inhabit.

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been

    A lot of that carbon in the ground came from life long ago even before the dinosaurs showed up when the planet was more like a hothouse and every land mass harbored life. There's something poetic about that, the warmth from long ago survived to this day in the form of buried life forms we now use to warm the world.

    We're still in an ice age, imagine how many people would die if we had another little ice age. That ended maybe 150-200 years ago depending on who you ask and we've been on the upswing ever since. But what caused the little ice age? It began around the time the black death hit Europe and there may be a link, either a cold snap began and disease followed, or the disease hit and started the cold snap by killing off the people slashing and burning forests for farms.

    The forests grew soaking up CO2, equatorial volcanoes blew up at a faster rate polluting the atmosphere, and sunspot activity declined. Those last 2 are beyond our control at this point and will undoubtedly happen again. Our main defense if that happens is ironically all the CO2 we've been dumping into the air, 'cleanly'.

    Its always gonna be a mixed bag of good and bad, ideally we could warm northern lands without sea rise. I'd like to see if we can create inland seas in low lying inhospitable depressions for water storage. But the evidence is overwhelming, life flourished under much warmer conditions.

    I remember a series called Connections with some British guy connecting events and phenomena, but the Sahara was 'green' during the early holocene and I think the Amazon existed then. Sadly I dont get Netflix. Researchers have been discovering the Amazon was home to rather large civilizations going back a few thousand years.

    I have read Saharan dust inhibits Atlantic hurricane formation so if the Sahara was green it could effect the frequency of hurricanes. But it was the Earth's tilt and monsoons that made the Sahara more livable. I dont think we can duplicate that with GHGs.
     
    KaibaCorp likes this.
  15. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Messages:
    19,588
    Location:
    Sydney
    Gaslight
    Obstruct
    Project <---- we are here now

     
  16. stinkubus

    stinkubus Emperor

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,365
    State votes are correlated. If Trump loses Ohio he also loses PA 100% of the time. Also probably loses at least one, and probably all, of the other upper Midwest states he needs too.
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  17. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2006
    Messages:
    20,672
    It wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin swings massively to Biden. I have a lot of relatives in the La Crosse area where the state is getting hammered by Covid; and even the fairly conservative (but not Trumpy) ones are getting quite angry at the Trumpy crowd for downplaying Covid.
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  18. west india man

    west india man Immortal

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2008
    Messages:
    9,327
    Location:
    Brazil
    big difference in turnout, both in total size and geographic spread
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  19. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2007
    Messages:
    24,896
    Location:
    Sovereign State of the Have-Nots
    Nah man, I don't think it is
     
    Ziggy Stardust and Gorbles like this.
  20. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2000
    Messages:
    19,457
    Location:
    the golf course
    When have I endlessly posted GOP propaganda? My sources for Russiagate and so many other issues are on the left, Glenn Greenwald, Aaron Mate and Jimmy Dore to name a few. But I do admit I would have figured out Russiagate was bogus sooner had I believed Trump enough to investigate instead of swallowing lies from MSNBC et al. Which brings us back to the endless Democrat propaganda, please continue whining about the evil orange man.

    I dont think Lord Cosmic Karma is handing out parking tickets for destroying countries, dont matter if their name is Bush, Biden, Obama or Trump. Do you think its insidious to criticize 'both sides' for slaughtering people in other countries? Comparing mass murder to a parking ticket would be ridiculous... So... Who made that comparison?

    Hmm...they didn't ask Iraq, Libya and Syria... Biden and the Democrats just spent 4 years trashing Russia to hurt Trump because he wants better relations with them. Pretty obvious why they'd prefer Trump. A brief 4 year return to the Cold War and the new McCarthyism for partisan political advantage, another parking ticket? How would you explain it if Syrians preferred Trump over Biden?

    The fossil record disagrees with you

    From oil sands pipelines to Arctic drilling and the fracking boom and the energy independence Trump keeps bragging about, but we tried. C'mon Man!

    Voters didn't know 9/11 was coming down or how Bush and Biden would respond and I dont know how many voters were convinced it was a lie in 2004, but it has since become common knowledge we were scammed into mass murder in our name. I think most people did know by 2008 and Obama - the guy who opposed the war - knocked off 2 Senators who voted for the war.

    "There's an old saying in Tennessee --- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee --- that says, fool me once, shame on --- shame on you. Fool me --- you can't get fooled again."

    You cant get fooled again... Now Cosmic Karma Lord might see it differently, you vote for someone you own what they do. Hopefully its just a parking ticket. But if you see what they do and vote for them again, I dont know. That might become an entry in the Book of Life.

    I wouldn't blame people who voted for Obama in 2008 for what he did to Libya, but voting for him again in 2012? His encore was Syria! They got fooled again. I came very close to voting for him, rest of my family did. I thank God I didn't, I already have more than enough sins to regret.

    I dont know, you dont know, only the Shadow knows. Make an argument that shows you know. If life bloomed in the past when the world was much warmer, why should I think a relatively colder world is better? Our cities will become coral reefs for life to invade as we retreat from rising seas.

    https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/074.htm

    Notice how the abrupt warming at 11.5kya coincides with Gobekli Tepe in S. Turkey

    Did they matter when Obama and Biden were punching holes in the crust? People will do what people have always done, move to a less hot climate or adapt. Why do people live more than 3 miles up? Because they can.

    Africa is splitting apart along the rift valley, it wont be long before the Red Sea pours into the Afar Depression, dig a canal and create an inland sea. Lower sea level and improve the local climate. Why are you comparing a war we were lied into with alleged deaths from climate change?

    Yes, I hope so, probably, stronger and intense is redundant and doubtful, I assume so, only at the height of summer. Why would a warmer world be bad for life? The temperature record for the time complex life has existed shows mostly a much warmer world in the past. It was only recently about 2.6mya that we got cold.

    May die...

    Could hehe... You dont know Joe.

    Hell yes... but lets ask the people in countries Joe helped destroy
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
    KaibaCorp and Old Hippy like this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page