2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Farm Boy]

Bleh.

 

[El_Machinae]

They have never issued a report that tracks the "accomplishments" of a particular administration.

Probably only partially true. The OSTP will definitely give updates and spin them in order to highlight how they are tracking the President's expressed wishes. It's their job, after-all, to enact science policy under his direction. And it's his job to describe his vision for science policy.
Here's an example (before Obama won 2016)
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/aaas_forum_jph_04-14-16.pdf

Remarkably less pretty than the Trump one Probably made more sense over the conference call. edit: also contains the word 'unprecedented' which Trump's 'like no one has ever seen' has probably forever ruined.

And here's the OSTP forwarding a Press Release (Nov 30) touting accomplishments (after he'd won 2016, which is vastly more acceptable).
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/administration/eop/ostp/pressroom

But you're right about the commandeering additional forces, in order to make a large and 'for public release' report.

 

[Berzerker]

Hes unhappy with almost everyone at some point.

Kinda depends on how we define unhappy, but he's identified a half dozen or so by name.

If you're not bipartisan, what are you? Anti-both-parties? Independent? The same criticism applies - your actions do not match your claims.

I vote libertarian and that political compass test has me at ~0 on the left-right economic axis and -3 down the social scale. Yes, anti-both parties, they're warmongers. You'll have to show me these actions and claims.

This forum is largely Democrats or adjacent so there aren't many Republicans to debate and they usually dont post on subjects I care about. Things like the drug war, pledge of allegiance, flag burning, and whistleblowers like Manning and Snowden are about it.

Yes, I've been accused of defending or shilling for the Republicans but when I asked for proof none was provided. I probably wouldn't even bother defending Trump if not for Russiagate. I dont take kindly to coups run thru the DoJ. But I will lmao if Trump appoints a special counsel to investigate Obama's DoJ if he loses, then we can watch Joe try to shut it down.

The whole shtick about "Russiagaters" just proves my point more. You consume and recite pro-GOP propaganda on a regular basis, and then get offended when people call you a Trump supporter. Is it not accurate? It's like calling me a leftist. I am a leftist, or socialist, of whatever specific point my beliefs and ideals position me at on the four-quarter chart.

I linked the political compass showing the 4 candidates before, here it is again.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

I'd like to see where all these Biden supporters show up on that graph. I'm actually a little closer to Howie Hawkins of the Greens than Jo. But I can pretty much guarantee the forum's Biden supporters are mostly in the minus on both scales - the quadrant opposite of Biden.

You guys and gals are voting for a right wing authoritarian and usually when I defend Trump, its from people making right wing authoritarian arguments. Russiagate is a great example - the Democrats sent lies to the FBI for their allies to use convincing a Fisa court to permit spying on political opponents. Now is that right wing or left? Trump tries to get us out of a couple wars and Democrats are mad. What is left and what is right?

Trump hate has turned supposedly left wingers into raging right wingers. Look at Antifa and BLM, they go around destroying neighborhoods because they oppose fascism and policed brutality. They are fascists, they brutalize innocent people and 'the left' remains silent or endorses their terrorism.

The point is, and this is the point you continually refuse to acknowledge, is that you act like a Democrat who once got a parking ticket is equally as bad as a Republican who makes a regular practice of raping babies to death on satanic alters.

What you post here trivializes the crimes of those who really are the most monstrous. And in doing so, effectively supports the ones who are most monstrous.

Somebody give Obama a parking ticket for helping terrorists sacrifice Syrian babies on the altar to Allah. Sorry, he had bipartisan support for that. Parking tickets for everyone involved, even those Republican monsters.

you're uptight mate you need to smoke a bong or something

I'll have to remember that the next time you go on a rant

 

[Drakle]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ga_102820/

GEORGIA
Presidential
Biden - 50 (+5)
Trump - 45

Senate
Ossoff - 49 (+3)
Perdue - 46

Senate - Special
Warnock - 41
Loeffler - 21
Collins - 18
Lieberman - 4

Very good Georgia poll for Democrats. Ossoff is so close to clearing the runoff threshold.

Loeffler and Collins is still an open race for making the second slot. Loeffler has immense money and both of them have been savaging each other, but Republicans in this poll seem to think she is the better Trump backer. But doing that might give her the second slot, but makes it so much weaker. I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans lose the Georgia runoff because Trump won't shut up, and makes himself still an issue.

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1321566694339350528

GBAO (D, Bollier Internal) poll of Kansas...

Bollier (D): 46% (+1)
Marshall (R): 45%
Buckley (L): 4%

Anyway, this is still not a close race, Presidentially. Biden has an immense lead. But the Senate races are. Kansas, Georgia, Montana. Lots of very close races, in very red territory.

I linked the political compass showing the 4 candidates before, here it is again.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

Political compass tests are garbage particularly that one. It has Warren in Authoritarian right. By that logic, 90% of the US population is in Authoritarian right.

Seriously, do you expect us to take this seriously?



Here is how voters are actually charted by real pollsters.

 

[Arwon]

This might be the election where anti black voter suppression in Georgia really comes in clutch for the Republicans

 

[Phrossack]

This might be the election where anti black voter suppression in Georgia really comes in clutch for the Republicans

Isn't that every election in Georgia?

 

[RobAnybody]

I view the claim "Accomplishments of Trump's First Term: Ended the Pandemic" the same way I viewed "Mission Accomplished" in regards to Iraq.

 

[FriendlyFire]

I vote libertarian and that political compass test has me at ~0 on the left-right economic axis and -3 down the social scale. Yes, anti-both parties, they're warmongers. You'll have to show me these actions and claims.
This forum is largely Democrats or adjacent so there aren't many Republicans to debate and they usually dont post on subjects I care about. Things like the drug war, pledge of allegiance, flag burning, and whistleblowers like Manning and Snowden are about it. Yes, I've been accused of defending or shilling for the Republicans but when I asked for proof none was provided. I probably wouldn't even bother defending Trump if not for Russiagate. I dont take kindly to coups run thru the DoJ. But I will lmao if Trump appoints a special counsel to investigate Obama's DoJ if he loses, then we can watch Joe try to shut it down.

Libertarians are aligned with Republican party
I think its just hilarious at the mental gymnastics as you defend Trump policies, bending into a preztel defending Trumps appointment of a Neocon (Bolton) and hes friends into power, Trumps trade wars, protectionism on steel, Trumps drawning of sharpies on weather map.

The pot is boiling and people are dying by the hundreds of thousands. A high price to pay for ending both the Clinton and Bush political dynasties.

 

[Zkribbler]

I used 538's interactive map to suppose a Biden victory in Texas. This would give Biden a 99+% chance of winning the election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

 

[Takhisis]

I view the claim "Accomplishments of Trump's First Term: Ended the Pandemic" the same way I viewed "Mission Accomplished" in regards to Iraq.

started instead of avoiding/preventing it in the first place
not really ended/accomplished
worsened by incompetence, self-contentedness and self-deception
disproportionately affects minorities and the already disadvantaged
used for social division and as an electionary prop
comes against any sort of wisdom or science, just informed by personal profit and personal grudges

 

[FriendlyFire]

A lot of people are going to die from all these rallies.
The GOP seem intent on their Herd mentality stratergy

Hundreds of Trump fans were stranded in freezing weather after his Omaha rally

I’m told the shuttles aren’t operating & there aren’t enough busses. Police didn’t seem to know what to do. Some walked. I saw at least one woman getting medical attention.

"The event itself seemed poorly planned from the beginning," Paige Godden reports at Iowa Starting Line. The parking lots were full, the shuttle buses for the 3.5-mile ride to the rally venue intermittent, and the lines long everywhere. People were still waiting to get in even after Trump started speaking, Godden writes. "Some started shouting for the line to move faster, and some began saying they needed to use the restroom and threatened to relieve themselves while waiting in line."

 

[Drakle]

A lot of people are going to die from all these rallies.
The GOP seem intent on their Herd mentality stratergy

Killing his own supporters. Top minds.


Anyway early vote analysis of Texas

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321542576504188928

White college and Asian voters have surpassed the 2016 total. African Americans and Hispanics are close to their 2016 turnout. While non-college white voters are lagging even 2018. Missing over a million votes from 2016, most of which lean GOP.

The margin of victory in 2016 was only 800,000 votes. A lot, but not that much in such a large state. Democratic-leaning groups are up, Republican-leaning ones are down. Maybe they show up on election day. But even only dropping from 2016 to 2018 numbers could cost Republicans a few hundred thousand votes.

Of course, the overall Texas electorate is still majority white, even as the adult electorate is actually minority-majority. So Democrats do still have untapped depths to call up.

And the margins of most groups have swung towards Democrats. So the turnout deficit dropping the Republican advantage to say only half a million votes puts the state into winnable range for Democrats, as they win over more former Republican/Trump voters.

See the 2018 analysis where most of the Democrats gains were from voter conversion but turnout did help. Nationwide, not Texas-specific.

This was very different from a Democratic incumbent midterm, where it was mostly just turnout and not people suddenly hating Obama

Texas used to be a Republican threshold because Democrats lost white non-college voters decades ago in the 60s and 70s, (more heavily at the top, and rippling down-ballot until the Governor in the 90s), while college white were a Republican strong point. Along with narrowing the margins with Hispanics, which was a strength of the Bush's. Trump's non-college white gains didn't mean anything in Texas because Republicans were basically already maxed out, but has broken the hold, or the margins narrowing that Texas Republicans used to get up to with everybody else.


Anyway, the national vote is up to 75 million.

And a lot are first-time or infrequent voters

17,531,153 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted. That's over 25% of ballots cast, and rising every day. It's reasonable to assume that close to 40 million voters who didn't turn out in 2016 will vote in this election.

While younger voters are, as you would expect, overrepresented in this group, almost 3 in 4 are over the age of 30. 3.6 million are over the age of 65.

Some infrequent voters might be Trump supporters. But the majority are not.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I used 538's interactive map to suppose a Biden victory in Texas. This would give Biden a 99+% chance of winning the election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

Mr. 'fracking ban' and 'move away from an oil-based economy' isn't going to win Texas.


But now that you mention it, let me write down all the polling predictions now before Trumps inevitable victory.
Or at least the "poll tightening" that Republicans get the final week as the giant dem advantage floats back into the margin of error to keep reputations intact.

538 - Biden 88% chance of winning!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Real Clear Politics - Biden has a 7 point lead compared to Clinton's 3 point lead in 2016.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Bookies are giving Biden 66% odds, but betters are betting more $$$ on Trump winning.
https://www.newsweek.com/seven-days...oney-has-been-bet-trump-winning-biden-1542440

Biden has a 17 point lead in Wisconsin!
I really want to see if this one turns out to be true.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

And this is not an easy poll to disregard. ABC News/Washington Post adheres to what we consider the gold-standard methodology (meaning they use live phone interviewers, call cell phones as well as landlines and participate in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative or the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archive) and earns an A+ grade in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings database.FiveThirtyEight is a division of ABC News.

" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 143, 213); text-decoration-line: none; position: relative;">1 The poll single-handedly increased Biden’s lead in our polling average of Wisconsin from 7.1 points to 9.0 points, and it is currently the most influential poll in our forecast of Wisconsin, where Biden’s chances of winning the state have reached a new high as a result — 93 in 100.

17 point lead, gold standard.
Rather surprising considering that people tend to vote for the same party each election.

Anyway, I called Clinton to win for sure in 2016.
Harder to trust polls this time around.

 

[Berzerker]

Berz, c'mon... No. Global warming is good for us? Seriously?

Its better for life... I think that makes it better for us.

First off, global warming means loss of glacial ice, which means rising sea levels which means loss of habitat, drinking water and arable land, right? Second, global warming means that deserts and dry spots will expand, decreasing arable land, right?

Sea levels will be a problem, much of Florida was under water ~125kya (those damn Atlanteans). And we're not only heading that way, I dont think we can stop it. We're gonna have to figure out how to suck CO2 out of cars and the atmosphere. Or rebuild inland... too

Locking water up in ice is not optimal, when ice melts it increases habitat, aquifers and precipitation. But the land we lose to rising seas also means more land for crops and life in general to inhabit.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been

A lot of that carbon in the ground came from life long ago even before the dinosaurs showed up when the planet was more like a hothouse and every land mass harbored life. There's something poetic about that, the warmth from long ago survived to this day in the form of buried life forms we now use to warm the world.

We're still in an ice age, imagine how many people would die if we had another little ice age. That ended maybe 150-200 years ago depending on who you ask and we've been on the upswing ever since. But what caused the little ice age? It began around the time the black death hit Europe and there may be a link, either a cold snap began and disease followed, or the disease hit and started the cold snap by killing off the people slashing and burning forests for farms.

The forests grew soaking up CO2, equatorial volcanoes blew up at a faster rate polluting the atmosphere, and sunspot activity declined. Those last 2 are beyond our control at this point and will undoubtedly happen again. Our main defense if that happens is ironically all the CO2 we've been dumping into the air, 'cleanly'.

I mean maybe the case could be made that retreating cold zones means that land which was previously tundra becomes temperate, theoretically increasing arable land, but that also means loss of habitat for the species that live there, but there is another problem... thawing tundra releases deadly diseases like anthrax as the frozen carcasses of dead animals like caribou begin to thaw. As an aside... tundra thawing doesn't do much of anything for us in the US anyway, besides maybe Alaska, and I don't see us moving our breadbasket up there. Canada and Russia might benefit, but all we get is a bunch of dust bowls.

Its always gonna be a mixed bag of good and bad, ideally we could warm northern lands without sea rise. I'd like to see if we can create inland seas in low lying inhospitable depressions for water storage. But the evidence is overwhelming, life flourished under much warmer conditions.

A related thing worth mentioning is something I saw in a NETFLIX documentary series called "Connected". One episode showed how the Amazon rainforest is actually dependent on a steady stream of tens of thousands of tons dust blowing in across the Atlantic from the Sahara desert. Without it, the erosion from the constant rainfall and extensive waterways would make plant life unsustainable, killing the Amazon and essentially turning it into a swamp rather than a jungle. So ironically, apparently even if global warming did somehow make the Sahara fertile, all that would accomplish is killing the Amazon in the process. They didn't go that far into it, but it was very interesting and worth a watch.

I remember a series called Connections with some British guy connecting events and phenomena, but the Sahara was 'green' during the early holocene and I think the Amazon existed then. Sadly I dont get Netflix. Researchers have been discovering the Amazon was home to rather large civilizations going back a few thousand years.

I have read Saharan dust inhibits Atlantic hurricane formation so if the Sahara was green it could effect the frequency of hurricanes. But it was the Earth's tilt and monsoons that made the Sahara more livable. I dont think we can duplicate that with GHGs.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Gaslight
Obstruct
Project <---- we are here now

California investigating after secret filming shows 'Trump Store' employees saying they collect votes in unofficial ballot box

Undercover video taken at a Republican campaign headquarters in California shows employees discussing an operation to collect ballots for 3 November’s election from unofficial ballot boxes.
The video, shot at the campaign headquarters’ “Trump Store,” which sells merchandise featuring the president, also recorded the staff offering to store ballots for people in a safe, because the box had been moved off the premises.
The video, which was filmed at a GOP location in Newport Beach, California, and obtained by Vice News, was sent alongside a complaint to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.

She then claimed: “We have the left stealing votes left and right. It’s just a matter of getting a grand jury to come in and investigate which they will once Trump is re-elected.”

More than 50 boxes labelled “Official Ballot Drop off Box” or “Ballot Drop Box,” were placed outside Republican Party offices, near churches and outside gun shops in California in early October, according to the New York Times.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-votes-in-unofficial-ballot-box-b1404288.html

 

[stinkubus]

According to 538, Biden is currently behind by 3% in Texas, behind 2% in Ohio and tied in Iowa. He's actually leading in Georgia by less than 1%.

Under normal circumstances, Biden winning Ohio would end the night, especially given the "No Republican has ever won without winning Ohio" factoid out there. When Obama won Ohio, Karl rove lost his mind live on-air and ordered Megan Kelly off the anchor desk to go tell the analysts to rescind their call of Ohio.

However under the current climate, I don't think Ohio alone would be enough. Georgia might be. Texas or Florida definitely would.

State votes are correlated. If Trump loses Ohio he also loses PA 100% of the time. Also probably loses at least one, and probably all, of the other upper Midwest states he needs too.

 

[Ajidica]

17 point lead, gold standard.
Rather surprising considering that people tend to vote for the same party each election.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin swings massively to Biden. I have a lot of relatives in the La Crosse area where the state is getting hammered by Covid; and even the fairly conservative (but not Trumpy) ones are getting quite angry at the Trumpy crowd for downplaying Covid.

 

[W|M]

17 point lead, gold standard.
Rather surprising considering that people tend to vote for the same party each election.

Anyway, I called Clinton to win for sure in 2016.
Harder to trust polls this time around.

big difference in turnout, both in total size and geographic spread

 

[Lexicus]

Its better for life... I think that makes it better for us.

Nah man, I don't think it is

 

[Berzerker]

What is your theory of politics Patine and Berserker? Lose for all time, and whine all the way? If we assume that your stated position is in good faith, and isn't just being shills for GOP talking points. If I thought that was the truth, I'd never pay attention to politics, instead of rage posting and copy-pasting GOP propaganda endlessly.

When have I endlessly posted GOP propaganda? My sources for Russiagate and so many other issues are on the left, Glenn Greenwald, Aaron Mate and Jimmy Dore to name a few. But I do admit I would have figured out Russiagate was bogus sooner had I believed Trump enough to investigate instead of swallowing lies from MSNBC et al. Which brings us back to the endless Democrat propaganda, please continue whining about the evil orange man.

The answer is no comrade, because the premise of the last part is incorrect. The insidious nature of bothsidesism, succinctly explained

I dont think Lord Cosmic Karma is handing out parking tickets for destroying countries, dont matter if their name is Bush, Biden, Obama or Trump. Do you think its insidious to criticize 'both sides' for slaughtering people in other countries? Comparing mass murder to a parking ticket would be ridiculous... So... Who made that comparison?

Unsurprisingly, the rest of the world certainly doesn't think they're the same thing

View attachment 573351

Also hilarious that Russia is the only country Trump wins outright. Puts the "Russia hoax!" defense in perspective.

Hmm...they didn't ask Iraq, Libya and Syria... Biden and the Democrats just spent 4 years trashing Russia to hurt Trump because he wants better relations with them. Pretty obvious why they'd prefer Trump. A brief 4 year return to the Cold War and the new McCarthyism for partisan political advantage, another parking ticket? How would you explain it if Syrians preferred Trump over Biden?

It won't, it will support less.

The fossil record disagrees with you

They believe it exists and made some attempts to combat it (also see Biden's presidential environmental policies 2020). Trump calls it a hoax and a Chinese conspiracy, do you believe him?

From oil sands pipelines to Arctic drilling and the fracking boom and the energy independence Trump keeps bragging about, but we tried. C'mon Man!

Are people who voted for Bush and Biden to blame too?

Voters didn't know 9/11 was coming down or how Bush and Biden would respond and I dont know how many voters were convinced it was a lie in 2004, but it has since become common knowledge we were scammed into mass murder in our name. I think most people did know by 2008 and Obama - the guy who opposed the war - knocked off 2 Senators who voted for the war.

"There's an old saying in Tennessee --- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee --- that says, fool me once, shame on --- shame on you. Fool me --- you can't get fooled again."

You cant get fooled again... Now Cosmic Karma Lord might see it differently, you vote for someone you own what they do. Hopefully its just a parking ticket. But if you see what they do and vote for them again, I dont know. That might become an entry in the Book of Life.

I wouldn't blame people who voted for Obama in 2008 for what he did to Libya, but voting for him again in 2012? His encore was Syria! They got fooled again. I came very close to voting for him, rest of my family did. I thank God I didn't, I already have more than enough sins to regret.

Don't know? We all know it will, or do you not care? Or are you just burying your head in the sand like Trump because it is an uncomfortable truth?

I dont know, you dont know, only the Shadow knows. Make an argument that shows you know. If life bloomed in the past when the world was much warmer, why should I think a relatively colder world is better? Our cities will become coral reefs for life to invade as we retreat from rising seas.

One happened over many many many many thousands of years. The other is happening in decades. Do you understand the significance of the difference between the two scenarios?

The central Greenland ice core record (GRIP and GISP2) has a near annual resolution across the entire glacial to Holocene transition, and reveals episodes of very rapid change. The return to the cold conditions of the Younger Dryas from the incipient inter-glacial warming 13,000 years ago took place within a few decades or less (Alley et al., 1993).

The warming phase, that took place about 11,500 years ago, at the end of the Younger Dryas was also very abrupt and central Greenland temperatures increased by 7°C or more in a few decades (Johnsen et al., 1992; Grootes et al., 1993; Severinghaus et al., 1998). Most of the changes in wind-blown materials and some other climate indicators were accomplished in a few years (Alley et al., 1993; Taylor et al., 1993; Hammer et al., 1997).

Broad regions of the Earth experienced almost synchronous changes over periods of 0 to 30 years (Severinghaus et al., 1998), and changes were very abrupt in at least some regions (Bard et al., 1987), e.g. requiring as little as 10 years off Venezuela (Hughen et al., 1996).

https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/074.htm

Notice how the abrupt warming at 11.5kya coincides with Gobekli Tepe in S. Turkey

Why are you ignoring these deaths? You always want to talk about deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan Do these deaths not matter? What about all the millions of deaths which will occur if we keep electing climate change deniers and anti-environmentalists? What about the billions of people who could end up in areas too hot for human life? Do they not matter?

Did they matter when Obama and Biden were punching holes in the crust? People will do what people have always done, move to a less hot climate or adapt. Why do people live more than 3 miles up? Because they can.

Africa is splitting apart along the rift valley, it wont be long before the Red Sea pours into the Afar Depression, dig a canal and create an inland sea. Lower sea level and improve the local climate. Why are you comparing a war we were lied into with alleged deaths from climate change?

It will also mean:
Temperatures Will Continue to Rise
Changes in Precipitation Patterns
More Droughts and Heat Waves
Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense
Sea Level Will Rise 1-8 feet by 2100
Arctic Likely to Become Ice-Free


@Berzerker Aside from the impact it will have on humans, it will also have a disastrous impact on the wildlife on this earth. They will not be able to adapt to these rapid changes. Are all the millions of species that will be wiped out not a concern for you?

Yes, I hope so, probably, stronger and intense is redundant and doubtful, I assume so, only at the height of summer. Why would a warmer world be bad for life? The temperature record for the time complex life has existed shows mostly a much warmer world in the past. It was only recently about 2.6mya that we got cold.

More Than 250,000 People May Die Each Year Due to Climate Change. Does that not concern you?

May die...

This US election could help to decide the battle against climate change.

Could hehe... You dont know Joe.

@Berzerker Are you sure Trump is the lesser of 2 evils?

Hell yes... but lets ask the people in countries Joe helped destroy