Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List

[bhsup]

The age really shouldn't concern you. She will have just turned 69 at the time of the 2016 election. Unless some obvious health problems surface or something, That's not an age to be concerned about, imho, anymore. IF she won, reassess in 2020, but again unless something obvious came up, I'd not worry.

 

[Cutlass]

Hillary has said she wasn't running. But I don't think that we can accept that as the final answer. The 6 months following the 2014 midterm election should show us who really is and really is not in the race. No matter what anyone has to say now.

 

[Patroklos]

The age really shouldn't concern you. She will have just turned 69 at the time of the 2016 election. Unless some obvious health problems surface or something, That's not an age to be concerned about, imho, anymore. IF she won, reassess in 2020, but again unless something obvious came up, I'd not worry.

McCain was 71 in 2008 and the Democrats and some Republicans pretty much claimed he was already dead. It will come up, this time with plenty of 2008 sound bites to haunt her.

 

[bhsup]

Yeah, but that's just the politics of the age, not real concerns.

 

[Patroklos]

We are discussing a presidential run yes? Why are you bringing up real concerns!

 

[downtown]

I'm sure that people will bring up age when Clinton runs. If she has any health problems between now and then, it will (and justifiably) become an issue.

Enough that said issue alone would stop her? I highly doubt it.

 

[bhsup]

We are discussing a presidential run yes? Why are you bringing up real concerns!

Heh Touche <<< add little accent thingy wherever the hell appropriate.

Too bad she can't pull a Reagan. He pretty much deflated that issue with one deft quip.


Link to video.

cue "alzheimers" crowd

 

[Patroklos]

You know it would be nice to have politicians that could make off the cuff zings like that instead of wincing uncomfortably everytime the Obamas and Romneys of the world fail miserably at every attempt.

 

[mangxema]

Is Hillary even going to run? IIRC she said that she wasn't considering any political jobs after she was done being Sec State and she will be getting a bit old in 2016.

That may be true, but I don't see how she doesn't eventually run. She will in all likelihood have the best chance at winning the presidency that any woman has ever had and I don't know how she says no to that when people keep reminding her of that.

 

[Cutlass]

If she does run, I don't see any scenario in which she looses.

 

[sophie]

That poll was of registered Democratic voters for the Democratic candidate (and registered Republicans for the Republican candidate), and it's pretty consistent with nation-wide polling on the subject. Hillary Clinton leads by 30-50 points in just about every state, and then the native son or Joe Biden comes in second place with around 10-20%. For the Republicans, as the map and polls imply, it's a lot more divided and thus actually interesting.

The status of the Democratic Party in Montana is weird--although they cannot flip the state blue for the electoral college, they have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor (who has a solid chance to become the next Democratic Senator in 2014 when Max Baucus retires). I think you were thinking of this presidential geography blog post on Montana, which is still good reading. The short version: similar forces are at work here like in Nevada with West Coasters moving east into the conservative state, with college towns and native American reservations but fewer Hispanic groups.

Yes, that was exactly what I was referring to. I went on a binge last year and basically read all of them. Very interesting stuff and worth reading if anybody wants to get into political analysis. I didn't bother to pull it up, but as I recall the recent discovery of oil in the state (as well as in ND) is really mixing things up.

 

[Antilogic]

The age really shouldn't concern you. She will have just turned 69 at the time of the 2016 election. Unless some obvious health problems surface or something, That's not an age to be concerned about, imho, anymore. IF she won, reassess in 2020, but again unless something obvious came up, I'd not worry.

McCain was 71 in 2008 and the Democrats and some Republicans pretty much claimed he was already dead. It will come up, this time with plenty of 2008 sound bites to haunt her.

I'm sure that people will bring up age when Clinton runs. If she has any health problems between now and then, it will (and justifiably) become an issue.

She did have some health problems around the end of her term in 2012 (they found a blood clot in a checkup after a stomach virus, if I recall, and she was being treated long-term with anticoagulants).

If anything else happens, it won't bode well for her unless she has a solid VP pick. I think that's what exacerbated the issue in McCain's campaign; people were really paying attention to the second person on the ticket, especially after he picked Palin.

That may be true, but I don't see how she doesn't eventually run. She will in all likelihood have the best chance at winning the presidency that any woman has ever had and I don't know how she says no to that when people keep reminding her of that.

True, there's already the Ready for Hillary SuperPAC, complete with senatorial endorsements. Also, I think people are reading her public statements on supporting gay marriage, for example, as indicative that she wants to get back into politics--otherwise, why bother making the statement?

If she does run, I don't see any scenario in which she looses.

I can envision a few. For example, another recession in 2016 (after the anemic recovery we have now) would hurt any Democrat's chances of carrying the presidential election. If she has terrible debates against her Republican opponent, it could swing the polls enough to put her at a disadvantage.

 

[Gucumatz]

Do debates really matter though in this day and age? Unless you punch a baby in the audience, anything you say or do can easily be spinned away by the millions in advertising

 

[Cutlass]

Do debates really matter though in this day and age? Unless you punch a baby in the audience, anything you say or do can easily be spinned away by the millions in advertising

Obama was considered to have done poorly in the first debate against Romney. And that changed the polls for a bit. But in the end Obama's lead was too great for that one event to change the outcome.

 

[Antilogic]

Do debates really matter though in this day and age? Unless you punch a baby in the audience, anything you say or do can easily be spinned away by the millions in advertising

So long as they remain roughly tied, I would think the debates affect the enthusiasm of the candidate's own base and how much time they will volunteer. But if a candidate bombs three debates in a row, I think that might be hard to spin away.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Heh Touche <<< add little accent thingy wherever the hell appropriate.

Too bad she can't pull a Reagan. He pretty much deflated that issue with one deft quip.


Link to video.

cue "alzheimers" crowd

That was a brilliant play on Reagan's part.

You know it would be nice to have politicians that could make off the cuff zings like that instead of wincing uncomfortably everytime the Obamas and Romneys of the world fail miserably at every attempt.

I dunno, 'horses and bayonets' was pretty awesome.

 

[Dreadnought]

If she does run, I don't see any scenario in which she looses.

I agree, she has quite a stern personality.

I can envision a few. For example, another recession in 2016 (after the anemic recovery we have now) would hurt any Democrat's chances of carrying the presidential election. If she has terrible debates against her Republican opponent, it could swing the polls enough to put her at a disadvantage.

She did lose to Obama as well.

 

[CivCube]

I declare this post the opening of the Draft Jimmy Carter movement. One More Term!

 

[bhsup]

But his brother died Who is going to supply the nation with beer during Jimmy's second term?!

 

[Cutlass]

We'll make a new Billy Beer. It will be better, stronger, faster.