Brexit Thread IV - They're laughing with us, not at us

[Takhisis]

Yay, we are two-fifths into the new(est) thread already!

I think the DUP are about to get shafted for the sake of a deal.

I'm not sure.
This is a system in which somebody will lose. It's either giving away Ireland to the Irish and losing the peace to the Germans (and, worse, have an election and lose it to Jeremy Corbyn) or keeping Ireland in and losing the peace to the Germans.
Remember that this is about STOPPING CORBYN and MAKING BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, i.e. spite politics from a group of over-50s who just want to laugh it up as long as people they hate go cross-eyed in frustration.

 

[Hrothbern]

Perhaps all the manoevring we see is preparing for....

At the bookies the chance on a new referendum is 2/1

EDIT
Would that not also keep the Tories on top ?

 

[AmazonQueen]

According to Barnier NI is now the only sticking point between the 2 sides and a deal.
I can't see any deal acceptable to the EU being acceptable to the DUP so if they and the diehard Brexiteers didn't support her May would need support from a substantial chunk of opposition MPs to get a deal through.

 

[Takhisis]

‘The two sides’ would be the UK Cabinet and the EU's negotiators, right? Because then what they have is this stupid little Parliament thing to go through, and a backbench rebeliion would suffice.

 

[Arakhor]

The only vaguely competent thing the government has done throughout this whole farce is blatantly minimise every role Parliament should or did have in this procedure. I'm still not holding out any hope for the promised "meaningful" vote being worth anything in practice, especially as almost every concession to Parliament that the Govt has made has been to the hard-line Brexiteers.

 

[Takhisis]

Never mind the fact that the Lords have the legal conventional right to have an opinion on this, as well as the sovereign in whose name this is all done (if things drag on it'll be King Charles III); also, the Tories have curious internal egulations which might, or might not, prevent Treeza from staying in power if, say, she gets a majority of the votes in the commons but a minority from among the Commons and I don't even know how the DUP would be counted for such a purpose.

 

[uppi]

‘The two sides’ would be the UK Cabinet and the EU's negotiators, right? Because then what they have is this stupid little Parliament thing to go through, and a backbench rebeliion would suffice.

The EU negotiators have every reason to pretend that May is capable of actually delivering whatever deal will be negotiated. At this point, it doesn't matter to them, whether the government falls, because there will be no time to get a new deal, anyway. The lack of preparation for anything else will mean that Parliament will have the choice of accepting the deal or letting the UK descend into chaos.

It is not of the EU negotiators job to navigate politics of the various factions within the UK. And even if they wanted to talk to anyone else, who would they talk to?

 

[Takhisis]

Boris Zohnson, of course.

 

[innonimatu]

According to Barnier NI is now the only sticking point between the 2 sides and a deal.
I can't see any deal acceptable to the EU being acceptable to the DUP so if they and the diehard Brexiteers didn't support her May would need support from a substantial chunk of opposition MPs to get a deal through.

I wonder what happened to all the other red lines on the EU's side. Plus, what happened to the "Ireland border must be settled before anything else" claim.
Oh right, they caved in. How surprising....The UK will get the border deal on its terms.

 

[Arakhor]

Were you planning to provide any sources for this latest flight of fancy or are you just using this thread as the bathroom again?

 

[innonimatu]

It's not as if anyone has been providing sources for their opinions here, is it?

In any case mine is an opinion, as it should be clear. I am the source. You can do with it whatever you like, including (with your bathroom talk) disbelieving it. It's the current level of public discussion all right...

 

[Arakhor]

Well, since you're freely sharing your opinions then, tell me, what are "the UK's" terms?

 

[Ajidica]

Well, since you're freely sharing your opinions then, tell me, what are "the UK's" terms?

Good question, because I doubt the Maybot knows.

 

[Takhisis]

It's not as if anyone has been providing sources for their opinions here, is it?

I thought we'd already agreed that calling Brexiteers out on their lack of sources was ‘poor form’ and had to be avoided?

 

[Cheetah]

I wonder what happened to all the other red lines on the EU's side. Plus, what happened to the "Ireland border must be settled before anything else" claim.
Oh right, they caved in. How surprising....The UK will get the border deal on its terms.

This looks like complete non-sequitor ramblings again, but in case someone else reads this thread:

There are three important points from the EU's side: (1) Citisens' rights, (2) existing financial obligations, and (3) the situation in Northern Ireland. These were always the three important points, and they remain the three important points. Theorizing «what happened to all the other red lines on the EU's side» makes no sense, because we already know what has happened: Citisens' rights are mostly agreed upon and will be reciprocal, and the existing financial obligations have been agreed to, and the total valuation of those will be roughly 40 billion. The last point is the one that needs to be agreed to before moving forward.

And yes, there will be no further negotiations until these three points are addressed and the Withdrawal agreement is concluded.

And no, the EU hasn't «caved in» on anything, nor will the UK get any kind of border deal on «its terms».

 

[innonimatu]

And no, the EU hasn't «caved in» on anything, nor will the UK get any kind of border deal on «its terms».

You know I'm always perfectly happy to wait and let time be the judge of these disagreements. How's free Libya, by the way?

On the EU thing, Bernier has outlasted his usefulness, not things finally get diplomatic. And the UK holds more cards that it would appear from size alone, because the EU is not united. Even despite the UK's government incompetence and its own divisions.

The "existing financial obligations" are a figment of the EU's negotiators imagination. There are no financial obligations past the exit from the EU set forth in any treaty. None whatsoever. If they want money, they'll have to give something in trade for it. That the EU's bureaucracy has been in denial over this issue to this late stage does not bode well for it. The EU's own on-the-record position that nothing is agreed on until everything is agreed on now plays against it.

The situation of the irish border has always been the EU's problem. Another EU problem. The UK can do whatever it pleases them: enforce it, or just pretend to enforce it, or openly refuse to enforce it. The EU has no such flexibility because it painted itself into a corner: either there is a trade deal or the border must be enforced. This compels the EU's member Ireland to to that enforcing (which the Irish do not wish) or the EU to have to agree to a customs deal with the UK. The irish border is leverage for the UK. That was why the UK never agreed to "close the issue" and move on. In that much they were competent.
Their incompetence is in not preparing for the real possibility of a no deal exit, even if they think that the EU will cave in due to these issues (money and Ireland).

 

[Hrothbern]

hm

My understanding of the situation is that the country leaders are fed up with Westminster, that they shrug their shoulders about a WTO exit on March 2019, because the financial impact is neglectable (for the EU).
But because they do not want to have Ireland taking a 4% GDP hit and a WTO cliff edge risks the intention of the Good Friday Agreement, the EU goes through the motions, again and again.
And Ireland can TBH laugh away that 4% hit, looking a the 5 year forecast of annual GDP growth of the IMF for Ireland of between 3-4% per year.

From that perspective Westminster is in the dire position of a cliff edge on March 2019, because they burned their time with denial.
And my understanding is that the EU uses that self-inflicted dire position of the UK/Tories, not only for the Irish border, and not only for a customs union base in case Labour takes over, but also to secure that we have in Dec 2020 not again a cliff edge date that will likely again invites the UK for kamikaze behaviour needing more than usual EU attention.

If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny.

 

[Takhisis]

How's free Libya, by the way?

I don't think anybody's claiming that was a good thing here.

 

[innonimatu]

I don't think anybody's claiming that was a good thing here.

Indeed, it was conveniently forgotten. I was referring to some heated arguments we had at the time of the attack on that country. Time does tell.

Regarding brexit, there's a rather interesting speech from the former UK ambassador with his current take on the issues around it. I found it worth reading, even if I disagree in some points. Not many, actually.

One I particularly agree with is this:

Third, and related to this, as was so brilliantly analysed by Peter Mair in his great book Ruling the Void, if you increasingly, at both European and national level, evacuate the space for genuine sharp political choices about direction, the public concludes that you may be able to change the people at the top of the system – though in the EU, you cannot even really do that – but you cannot really change the policies.

I once had the slightly dubious pleasure at one of the Permanent Representatives’ lunches with the then President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, of questioning whether the politics of the broad church Grand Coalition in the Parliament working alongside the Commission of Jean Claude Juncker were really likely to make Juncker’s supposed “Commission of the last chance saloon" a success, or were more likely to force any non Grand Coalition opposition to conclude that the only way to oppose was to aim to pull the entire temple down.

 

[Senethro]

Always useful to have the input of Russian nationalists who are able to correctly criticize the EU as insufficiently transparent, accountable or democratic and lacking in good faith in its dealings.