Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Yeekim]

What do you mean, "alternate" ?

 

[Takhisis]

I thought newspapers were meant to be used as wrappers at chip shops?

Brexit is looking worse and worse. We've heard about possible food and drug shortages, but now Der Spiegel reports that a No Deal Brexit could cause the UK to run out of toilet paper.

It's Venezuela all over again!

 

[innonimatu]

Any postponement, given that it will only prolong uncertainly and throw away whatever plans people and organizations already made for the exit date, is stupid.

Can't underestimate the capability of british MPs for stupidity though. They keep talking about the referendum fantasy.

 

[Silurian]

I thought newspapers were meant to be used as wrappers at chip shops?

Not for for 30 years but you can get paper printed to look like newspaper.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Yes, we decided that in an effort to combat the epidemic of deaths caused by newspaper ink consumption, that we'd better reduce paper recycling. Or something.

 

[Cheetah]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...anges-or-risk-disorderly-brexit-idUKKCN1QO2QI

May to EU - Agree to backstop changes or risk disorderly Brexit

Prime Minister Theresa May put the onus on the European Union to make concessions over the thorny issue of the Irish backstop in Brexit talks, or risk Britain leaving the EU without a deal, which she said would be against EU interests.

[...]

“Just as MPs will face a big choice next week, the EU has to make a choice, too. We are both participants in this process. It is in the European interest for the UK to leave with a deal,” May will say in a speech in Grimsby, northern England, according to pre-released extracts.

“We are working with them but the decisions that the European Union makes over the next few days will have a big impact on the outcome of the vote.”

May’s top lawyer returned empty handed from negotiations in Brussels this week.

[...]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...unt-eu-vote-commons-theresa-may-a8813401.html

Brexit: People will blame the EU 'if this ends in acrimony', foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt claims

Jeremy Hunt has warned that future generations will blame the European Union if the Brexit talks "end in acrimony".

With only days to go until MPs vote on Theresa May's deal, the foreign secretary issued a stern rebuke to Brussels, saying they needed to be "flexible in the negotiations" and accept that the UK has a "very clear ask" on the changes needed to get the deal over the line.

[...]

Mr Hunt said: "We know what it would take to get a deal through the House of Commons, and that is for a significant change to allow the attorney general to change his advice to the government and say we couldn't be trapped in a customs union forever.

"That's not an unreasonable thing to ask and we have made, I think, some progress in the last few days. There's a bit more to make. It's entirely possible to get there.

"And frankly I think future generations, if this ends in acrimony, will say that the EU got this moment wrong. And I really hope they don't."

[...]

TWENTY-ONE BLOODY DAYS LEFT! And the best these pathetic excuses of hydrogen and carbon can come up with is to blame the EU!?

 

[Hrothbern]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...anges-or-risk-disorderly-brexit-idUKKCN1QO2QI

May to EU - Agree to backstop changes or risk disorderly Brexit


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...unt-eu-vote-commons-theresa-may-a8813401.html

Brexit: People will blame the EU 'if this ends in acrimony', foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt claims

TWENTY-ONE BLOODY DAYS LEFT! And the best these pathetic excuses of hydrogen and carbon can come up with is to blame the EU!?

May to EU - Agree to backstop changes or risk disorderly Brexit
May: "remove the backstop from the deal"
EU: "but you proposed yourself that backstop"
May: "remove my backstop from my deal"
The EU: "no..... why don't you change your personal redlines to the majority wish of Westminster ?"
May: "no... do you know who you are talking to? I am the PM... I command my party and the House..."
EU: "hm"

Brexit: People will blame the EU 'if this ends in acrimony', foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt claims
The Minister of Foreign Affairs is speaking directly to 27 countries, for all other countries in the world to hear:
"Let the blame games now officially commence !"


What Hunt does not seem to understand is that after March 29, with or without a Withdrawal agreement, the UK will need to start negotiations on trade for a better future than pure WTO.
And whether that is after a no-deal negotiating in the cold weather from outside the door-openings...or inside the those houses near the homely grate fire...
in both cases negotiating with the EU will not be helped by such threats.

Neither towards the EU, but even more importantly towards the UK people.
Any trade relation with the EU closer than a simplified Canada FTA will need many years of negotiating without the emotions of the tabloids poored over Westminster, affecting support, the normal parliamentary tasks, the duration and results.

 

[AmazonQueen]

A little musical comedy

 

[tjs282]

A little musical comedy

That was hilarious, thankyou.

You might want to put an NSFW spoiler on it though...

 

[Hrothbern]

Early Evening Summary
• Theresa May has urged parliament to “get it done” and back her Brexit deal, in an impassioned speech that offered no new concessions for wavering MPs before next week’s crucial vote.
Speaking at a dockside warehouse in the pro-leave town of Grimsby, May repeatedly declined to accept any personal responsibility for the ongoing uncertainty or give any clues as to what she would do if the vote was lost.
The speech prompted a withering response from the CBI, whose deputy head said the prime minister’s message was “not good enough”.

• The EU has made a counter offer to Theresa May in what would effectively result in a border being drawn in the Irish Sea, a scenario which the British government has already ruled out.
The prime minister’s apparent attempt to apportion the blame on the state of the negotiations to the EU left senior figures in Brussels deeply unimpressed.
Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said that he was confused by her suggestion that “one more push” by the EU could win the House of Commons around to the deal.
“The Brexit date is getting ever closer. The ball is still rolling toward the cliffs of Dover,” he said.

• Jeremy Corbyn has said poverty and climate change are far greater priorities for Labour and the country than Brexit.
In advance excerpts of a speech to the Scottish Labour conference, Corbyn said his party was not “obsessed by constitutional questions like the others are. We’re obsessed with tackling the problems people face in their daily lives.”
In what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to shift the focus away from his party’s deep divisions over Brexit, Corbyn said the greatest challenge posed to the UK was global warming.

• Relatives of people killed by security forces have met the Northern Ireland secretary, Karen Bradley, and asked her to resign for defending fatal shootings by soldiers during the Troubles.
A delegation of family members sat down with Bradley at Stormont House in Belfast on Friday to express concern over her comments in Westminster on Wednesday, when she said security force killings were not crimes and were the actions of people “fulfilling their duties in a dignified and appropriate way”.
Bradley invited the relatives to her office to repeat apologies she made on Thursday, but Frances Meehan, whose brother Michael Donnelly was shot with a plastic bullet in 1981, said her position was “untenable”.

The summary at 17.00 of today of the Guardianin Politics Live

May's house is burning in all rooms.
One weekend and one working day to go before the vote.

 

[Kyriakos]

It will be very funny if the eu bends over backwards to agree to an extension, despite the srsbsns of the euro elections.
At least britain has the excuse that it has split to tribal warfare.

 

[Hrothbern]

It will be very funny if the eu bends over backwards to agree to an extension, despite the srsbsns of the euro elections.
At least britain has the excuse that it has split to tribal warfare.

My best guess is that the EU will if needed bend backwards to agree to some extension.
Not because I understand all considerations of them, and differences of opinions on that (which are there)... but because the value of the Pound only went up since Dec 11 and seems so undisturbed by the events of this year.
London City could not influence the peoples vote in June 2016, but they can influence a lot more of the decisionmakers now how to move on.
They will not care much whether it is a May deal or an extension to prevent a no-deal, and will be happy with the "risk" of Remain.

World’s biggest wealth fund piles billions of pounds into Britain after taking 30-year bet that UK economy will be STRONGER after Brexit
Norway's £740bn sovereign wealth fund has 8% of its total invested in Britain
The Sovereign Wealth fund owns some £6 billion of the UK's national debt
The fund's CEO said they will increase the value of the investment despite Brexit
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ealth-fund-piles-billions-pounds-Britain.html

I saw by coincidence a vid on one of the various aspects of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund: the "Foreign Affairs" human rights policy of Norway one of those aspects.
As example that "taking back control" at the national politics level by for example the UK, is not taking into account so many other aspects of power (like international money and so many more).
And do note the difference of policies in taxing and privatising between Norway and the UK in utilising the wealth of the big oil resources in the North Sea around their sea border.

EDIT
from today's news fitting above:

Norway's $1tn wealth fund to divest from oil and gas exploration
It will retain stakes in fossil fuel companies as long as they have some involvement in renewable energy. Its stakes in large firms with renewable units include 2.4% of Shell and 2.3% of BP, because it believes they will play a major role in developing green energy.
It will sell stakes in 134 companies, including UK-listed firms Tullow Oil, Premier Oil, Soco International, Ophir Energy and Nostrum Oil & Gas, all of which experienced a fall in share price after the announcement, knocking £130m off their combined stock market value.

Greenpeace UK’s oil campaigner, Charlie Kronick, said: “This partial divestment from oil and gas is welcome, but not enough to mitigate Norway’s exposure to both global oil and gas prices and the wider financial ramifications of climate change.
“However, it does send a clear signal that companies betting on the expansion of their oil and gas businesses present an unacceptable risk, not only to the climate but also to investors.

He said GPFG’s investment strategy also “underscores that the fracking business model is unsustainable”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...h-fund-to-divest-from-oil-and-gas-exploration

 

[Silurian]

@Hrothbern how would an extension prevent a no deal. I can only see it delaying it. The EU has offered to change the back stop so that it only applies to Northern Ireland (the majority in northern Ireland would like the backstop to kick in) but the DUP will not accept that. Another couple months would just mean more non negotiations.

 

[Akka]

TWENTY-ONE BLOODY DAYS LEFT! And the best these pathetic excuses of hydrogen and carbon can come up with is to blame the EU!?

Well, it's not like the entire Brexit thing has been about anything else, has it ?

 

[Silurian]

Many people, myself included, said years ago that it would "end" with the EU being blamed.

When it does not "end" and talks continue even after a no deal I think many people will start to get well confused and angry with the government.

 

[Akka]

Many people, myself included, said years ago that it would "end" with the EU being blamed.

When it does not "end" and talks continue even after a no deal I think many people will start to get well confused and angry with the government.

No, the government will just say that the EU is pressuring them, and people will blame the EU.
I mean, people blame the EU and say it's going for revenge and it's trying to ruin the UK, for simply stating that if the UK leave the EU, the UK won't have the benefit of being in the EU. When you reach this level, it means that nothing will ever change their mind.

 

[Takhisis]

Any postponement, given that it will only prolong uncertainly and throw away whatever plans people and organizations already made for the exit date, is stupid.

Can't underestimate the capability of british MPs for stupidity though. They keep talking about the referendum fantasy.

How can people make preparations anyway when they don't even know what will happen in 21 days?

I thought newspapers were meant to be used as wrappers at chip shops?

Not for for 30 years but you can get paper printed to look like newspaper.

So something has changed since the Thatcher years. Wow.

@Hrothbern how would an extension prevent a no deal. I can only see it delaying it. The EU has offered to change the back stop so that it only applies to Northern Ireland (the majority in northern Ireland would like the backstop to kick in) but the DUP will not accept that. Another couple months would just mean more non negotiations.

Until there is another election, that is. But of course the Tories will refuse to have an election until the EU is formally out of the rUK.

TWENTY-ONE BLOODY DAYS LEFT! And the best these pathetic excuses of hydrogen and carbon can come up with is to blame the EU!?

Well, it's not like the entire Brexit thing has been about anything else, has it ?

There was also this thing about dark-skinned people.

 

[Akka]

There was also this thing about dark-skinned people.

I remember a thing about Poles and generally being angry that the East Europeans (that the UK itself lobbied to include in the EU in 2003, ironically) were migrating to the UK. East Europeans being probably the single most white people on Earth, I admit I don't really see why people angry at dark-skinned people would vote for Brexit on this subject.

Especially as, since Brexit has been voted, net immigration in the UK has barely went down, BUT it's now much less Europeans and much more non-Europeans (and as such, dark-skinned people), so it'd have got the exact opposite effect. Which is funny.

 

[Hrothbern]

@Hrothbern how would an extension prevent a no deal. I can only see it delaying it. The EU has offered to change the back stop so that it only applies to Northern Ireland (the majority in northern Ireland would like the backstop to kick in) but the DUP will not accept that. Another couple months would just mean more non negotiations.

Yes
more non-negotiations on the EU interaction channel.

I think the base process that is running is the internal UK process in all its many aspects and interactions.
Not only between the MPs.

If public arguments used by someone or a faction are not usefull anymore, you cannot change them from one day on another. You need first other distractions long enough to get the old argument disappearing.
I see it all as a gigantic mutual feedback loop, slowly moving, between all players, from the top down of the various powers to the people and back up from them the polls and the grassroots.
Meanwhile fatigue, exhaustion and boredom increasing. The more close to deadlines and the brinks, the more that happens. The more hurled between hope and fear, the more that happens..
And in that changing environment statements can be made, positions can be changed, not acceptable before.
It's a cruel process.

 

[Hrothbern]

I remember a thing about Poles and generally being angry that the East Europeans (that the UK itself lobbied to include in the EU in 2003, ironically) were migrating to the UK. East Europeans being probably the single most white people on Earth, I admit I don't really see why people angry at dark-skinned people would vote for Brexit on this subject.

Especially as, since Brexit has been voted, net immigration in the UK has barely went down, BUT it's now much less Europeans and much more non-Europeans (and as such, dark-skinned people), so it'd have got the exact opposite effect. Which is funny.

yes
perhaps the immigrants from India are more the obedient type in RL or perception.
Poland is anyway growing so strong in economy, with low unemployment levels, that further growth will be much helped by Polish immigrants returning, and will receive a warm welcome from their PM.