Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Takhisis]

I remember a thing about Poles and generally being angry that the East Europeans (that the UK itself lobbied to include in the EU in 2003, ironically) were migrating to the UK. East Europeans being probably the single most white people on Earth, I admit I don't really see why people angry at dark-skinned people would vote for Brexit on this subject.

Especially as, since Brexit has been voted, net immigration in the UK has barely went down, BUT it's now much less Europeans and much more non-Europeans (and as such, dark-skinned people), so it'd have got the exact opposite effect. Which is funny.

Funny in the ‘Uncle Vernon telling Harry there should be no funny business’ sense.

 

[Lexicus]

Funny in the ‘Uncle Vernon telling Harry there should be no funny business’ sense.

Okay, everyone in this thread drop everything. New debate proposition: the Dursleys would have voted for Brexit

 

[Takhisis]

Vernon Dursley is a Daily Mail reader.

Edit: yes, I looked it up. It's a blink-and-you'll-miss-it moment in Goblet of Fire (ch. 3, ‘The Invitation’, the very first paragraph):

Uncle Vernon's red face was hidden behind the morning's Daily Mail and Aunt Petunia was cutting a grapefruit into quarters, her lips pursed over he horse-like teeth.​

 

[Lexicus]

My brother told me about that not too long ago. Considering Jo is a Remainer I am sure she would say the Dursleys voted for Brexit.

 

[uppi]

@Hrothbern how would an extension prevent a no deal. I can only see it delaying it. The EU has offered to change the back stop so that it only applies to Northern Ireland (the majority in northern Ireland would like the backstop to kick in) but the DUP will not accept that. Another couple months would just mean more non negotiations.

It won't prevent a no deal, but it will prevent an European politician from having to stand there and say that he or she has decided that there will be no deal. I doubt there will be many who would take personal responsibility for that. Especially because an extension with further fruitless negotiations would hurt the UK much more than it would the EU. The elections for the EU parliament are awkward, but since unanimity is required anyway, there is room for creative solutions. For example, the UK could get a non-voting status until an exit deal is reached.

 

[Silurian]

No, the government will just say that the EU is pressuring them, and people will blame the EU.
I mean, people blame the EU and say it's going for revenge and it's trying to ruin the UK, for simply stating that if the UK leave the EU, the UK won't have the benefit of being in the EU. When you reach this level, it means that nothing will ever change their mind.

If we leave with no deal on the 29/3 or after an extension many Brexit supports will celebrate.

You don't think they will be confused when we then start negotiations with the EU.

 

[Hrothbern]

If we leave with no deal on the 29/3 or after an extension many Brexit supports will celebrate.

You don't think they will be confused when we then start negotiations with the EU.

haha
yes
only then the trade relation negotiations will finally start !

Here Ivan Rogers on that moment (from a recent panel on March 4):
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/Sir-Ivan-Rogers

 

[Traitorfish]

I remember a thing about Poles and generally being angry that the East Europeans (that the UK itself lobbied to include in the EU in 2003, ironically) were migrating to the UK. East Europeans being probably the single most white people on Earth, I admit I don't really see why people angry at dark-skinned people would vote for Brexit on this subject.

The primary target of anti-EU agitation tends to be Bulgarians and Romanians rather than Poles, people who at least stereotypically have a more Mediterranean complexion and therefore more easily racialised. I can't speak for Americans, but the British still tend to draw a definite if not clearly-articulated distinction between "white" and "white white". I don't think that can be discounted as a factor.

 

[Takhisis]

only then the trade relation negotiations will finally start !

Courtesy of reddit:

(that the actor is from Northern Ireland is an added bonus)

 

[Traitorfish]

At least trade routes are something people do legitimate have wars over. Franz-Ferdinand was just supposed to go for a nice drive.

 

[innonimatu]

Meanwhile fatigue, exhaustion and boredom increasing. The more close to deadlines and the brinks, the more that happens. The more hurled between hope and fear, the more that happens..
And in that changing environment statements can be made, positions can be changed, not acceptable before.
It's a cruel process.

You too remain in denial... no pun intended, I swear!

 

[Takhisis]

At least trade routes are something people do legitimate have wars over. Franz-Ferdinand was just supposed to go for a nice drive.

Have you watched a film called ‘Sarajevo’ starring, among others, Heino Ferch? If you haven't I recommend it.

(this is a bit of a sidenote but a worthy one, I think)

 

[Arakhor]

You too remain in denial... no pun intended, I swear!

Weren't you the one who kept saying that the EU will blink first? How is Hrothbern in denial?

 

[Takhisis]

He denies the accuracy of the gospel according to Putin innonimatu.

 

[innonimatu]

Weren't you the one who kept saying that the EU will blink first? How is Hrothbern in denial?

I said it and I was right. No one is threatening any longer that planes would be grounded. The City got what it wanted. That is one hell of a blink.

 

[EnglishEdward]

If we leave with no deal on the 29/3 or after an extension many Brexit supports will celebrate.

Yes; I think I would put on my St George's flag tea shirt and Canaries hat- - that is if the moths have not eaten them.

You don't think they will be confused when we then start negotiations with the EU.

No

only then the trade relation negotiations will finally start !

I believe that the only thing likely to be discussed are import and export tariffs on material goods.

I suspect that the pressure from third party exporters such as China, Japan, Brazil, India, USA etc who have understandably
not taken prevous discusson seriously, will be enormous; and most of the UK-EU arrangements will be almost sidelined.

The primary target of anti-EU agitation tends to be Bulgarians and Romanians rather than Poles, people who at least stereotypically have a more Mediterranean complexion and therefore more easily racialised. I can't speak for Americans, but the British still tend to draw a definite if not clearly-articulated distinction between "white" and "white white". I don't think that can be discounted as a factor.

Well that might be true where you live up North, but in my experience the primary target of our ire for us further South is Brussels,
and, regarding migrants, the perceived distinctions are whether they speak understandable English or wear a Birka.

The media tried to make a politically correct issue of the fact that a black, Meghan Markle, was marrying in to the UK Royalty.
As far as I can perceive, the general view was that we hadn't noticed and didn't care tuppence about her ancestry.

 

[Hrothbern]

I suspect that the pressure from third party exporters such as China, Japan, Brazil, India, USA etc who have understandably
not taken prevous discusson seriously, will be enormous; and most of the UK-EU arrangements will be almost sidelined.

You mean that these countries will be so happy to trade with the UK, replacing EU imports to the UK, that it makes sense for the UK to give deals with them first priority in timeline and tariffs/quota ?

 

[EnglishEdward]

You mean that these countries will be so happy to trade with the UK, replacing EU imports to the UK, that it makes sense for the UK to give deals with them first priority in timeline and tariffs/quota ?

In my experience when change occurs, most people perceive threats first and opportunities secondly.

Countries such as Japan and South Korea will be concerned about their current export profile to the UK,
and likely first try to ensure that the existing tariff and quota arrangements will not be adversely impacted.

I doubt that anyone will be happy, although US farming interests impacted by the USA-China standoff
will certainly be looking at achieving increased expors to the UK as a partial indirect compensation.

Regarding UK-EU trade; from our perspective two years of prioritising the EU as the party to be
negotiating with, has achieved absolutely nothing. A sensible government might simply decide
to ignore RoI, NI cross border trade for the time being, otherwise letting UK-EU default to WTO terms.

This of course assumes that the UK leaves 29 March 2019 without a deal, that is not qute certain.

 

[Hrothbern]

Regarding UK-EU trade; from our perspective two years of prioritising the EU as the party to be
negotiating with, has achieved absolutely nothing

I come back in full onyour post

but first: which two years do you refere to ?

 

[Arakhor]

I said it and I was right. No one is threatening any longer that planes would be grounded. The City got what it wanted. That is one hell of a blink.

Well, I suppose that when you interpret things selectively like that, it's easy to be a prophet.