Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[AmazonQueen]

I generally like bercow, yet he is pushing it.

In this case hes absolutely just applying the rules. Doesn't come up often because most governments with a slim majority don't try and push something they might lose on once never mind three times.

 

[Dachs]

I have to admit, I was familiar with the case of something passing the Commons but failing in the Lords twice but becoming eligible for the Royal Assent anyway after a successful vote on the third reading in the Commons.

I was not familiar with the case of something failing to pass the Commons over...and over...and over again. TIL.

Imo due to english sense of self-worth even a hard brexit pm will have very considerable public support.

I don't know that that's true, but either way, "public" support doesn't matter if they can't hold the Commons.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I have to admit, I was familiar with the case of something passing the Commons but failing in the Lords twice but becoming eligible for the Royal Assent anyway after a successful vote on the third reading in the Commons.

I was not familiar with the case of something failing to pass the Commons over...and over...and over again. TIL.

I don't know that that's true, but either way, "public" support doesn't matter if they can't hold the Commons.

Thats because the House of Lords revises legislation the Commons sends it, but when it returns to the Commons the government can choose to try and get any amendments the Lords made overturned I think

 

[really]

Thats because the House of Lords revises legislation the Commons sends it, but when it returns to the Commons the government can choose to try and get any amendments the Lords made overturned I think

It is because of... Ireland (and money)
The Lords was stacked with conservative landowners who opposed Irish home rule. They had also blocked a budget triggering a general election. The liberal government wanted to clarify the position in the parliament act of 1911 and king whoever threatened to flood the lords with new liberal peers unless the lords passed it.

 

[Takhisis]

Yeap, every time the unelected Lords get too uppity and try and rein in the Commons' nonsense the first-past-the-post-elected Commons remind them that they can legislate the Lords away, which would be a constitutional crisis if there was such a thing as a constitution.

 

[Dachs]

Thats because the House of Lords revises legislation the Commons sends it, but when it returns to the Commons the government can choose to try and get any amendments the Lords made overturned I think

It is because of... Ireland (and money)
The Lords was stacked with conservative landowners who opposed Irish home rule. They had also blocked a budget triggering a general election. The liberal government wanted to clarify the position in the parliament act of 1911 and king whoever threatened to flood the lords with new liberal peers unless the lords passed it.

Yes, this is correct. The Home Rule Crisis is the source of much of my understanding of UK government.

 

[Takhisis]

Well… just take it to today. British policy after WWI focused on rubbing the Germans' defeat in their faces and after WWII it was about pretending the Empire was not falling around them (Malaya, Australia, India, South Africa, Egypt, Rhodesia, etc. all dropping out) so bullying the Irish and grandstanding on Gibraltar and the Falklands about self-determination (while betraying Hong Kong) rather than actually taking the country in a new direction is all the British political class has left.

 

[Hrothbern]

That backstop, that Union with NI, those vassals in NI.... is there anyone really believing that it is really important for Rees-Mogg ?

Well... the DUP is starting to feel how significant they are for the Rees-Mogg club. Vassals are after all expendable in royal-court intrigues.

In an interesting Spectator blog, James Forsyth says that, although the talks between the government and the DUP about the backstop are going on, the DUP are worried that anything Theresa May promises about Great Britain maintaining regulatory alignment with Northern Ireland might not be honoured by her successor. Here is an extract.

One of those familiar with DUP thinking tells me that one concern they have is over the attitude of Theresa May’s successor to the provision that they are negotiating which would see the rest of the UK follow any regulations that Northern Ireland adopted in the backstop.

The government is offering to put this measure into the withdrawal agreement bill. This would give it force, particularly given that the WAB will be superior legislation. However, the eventual UK / EU trade deal could end up overriding this lock. I understand that yesterday the DUP put out feelers to the leading Brexiteer leadership candidates about how they would approach this issue and were not reassured by the answers that came back.

 

[really]

Well... the DUP is starting to feel how significant they are for the Rees-Mogg club. Vassals are after all expendable in royal-court intrigues.

I believed all this. I thought of the last thirty years, during which I was fighting with others whose friendship and comradeship I hope I will lose from tonight, because I do not value any friendship that is not founded upon confidence and trust. I was in earnest. What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power. And of all the men in my experience that I think are the most loathsome it is those who will sell their friends for the purpose of conciliating their enemies, and, perhaps, still worse, the men who climb up a ladder into power of which even I may have been part of a humble rung, and then, when they have got into power, kick the ladder away without any concern for the pain, or injury, or mischief, or damage that they do to those who have helped them to gain power.

Edward Carson one of the founders of Ulster Unionism speaking a hundred or so years ago.

 

[mitsho]

I've learnt a lot about the English way of Governance and Parliamentarism that I didn't know before. And I was more astonished with every turn of events. In any case, it's just a long advert for a written constitution and a clear set of rules on how to do stuff. Making stuff up as you go along and "setting precedent" a la the English just seems like a recipe for disaster. And it makes you keep nonsensical traditions (the shouting! The maze! And so much more).

 

[EnglishEdward]

Meanwhile apparently UK unemployment falls to a 44 year low

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/19/uk-unemployment-falls-brexit-jobless-rate

UK unemployment has dropped to the lowest level in more than 44 years despite mounting fears over
Brexit, as employers across the country ramped up hiring at the fastest rate in more than three years.

The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s jobless rate fell to a fresh low of 3.9% in the
three months to January, down from 4% a month ago, the lowest point since the start of 1975.

Companies increased their hiring activity to add another 222,000 people to the UK workforce,
taking the overall number in work to a fresh record high of 32.7 million.

I supose it is fake news, but I can not quite see the magician moving his hands.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I've learnt a lot about the English way of Governance and Parliamentarism that I didn't know before. And I was more astonished with every turn of events. In any case, it's just a long advert for a written constitution and a clear set of rules on how to do stuff. Making stuff up as you go along and "setting precedent" a la the English just seems like a recipe for disaster. And it makes you keep nonsensical traditions (the shouting! The maze! And so much more).

People have been trying to change this for a while https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charter_88
but combine it with FPTP and 2 main parties that think they have a chance and nothing ever changes

 

[Cheetah]

The BBC has really fallen, or maybe I always had a falsely good image of them?

 

[Cheetah]

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1108000915993387008

Brussels is braced for Theresa May's letter to Tusk asking for a Brexit extension today. Diplomats think PM will ask for June 30 extension. She will tell leaders at the summit this is the most important decision they face since the Greek bailout

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1108036841905799169

Firm message from the Élysée this afternoon: agreeing an extension to Brexit is neither certain nor automatic. Extension is a tool not a strategy. France sets two conditions 1) a credible UK plan with majority backing 2) a guarantee delay won't "endanger European project". French frustration evident. "It's already been two years". Will not extend so that Brits can just "procrastinate"

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1107967874163970048

EU countries’ position on #Brexit delay being described to me still as a “cacophony” - some for short, others for long, some for strict conditions, others more relaxed BUT

EU decision on extension depends a) on what PM asks for b) on EU leaders once in a room together Thurs. Fair to say: all options stil on table and EU leaders want to avoid no deal. There will be no EU “no” to an extension request

There are legal and political issues mixed up in EU’s extension decision: A short extension would be up to 1 July (say Council legal services) rather than 24 May (Commission date) BUT

If PM asks for short extension, EU lawyers say further extension impossible. WHY? Because short ext means UK not taking part in European Parliamentary elex. If UK then delays #Brexit past 1 July, remaining an EU member longer, it legally needs MEPs but wld have missed EP elex

If EU requests longer #Brexit delay eg 1 year, nothing in EU treaties says it could request another extension - legally - politically is another question!

EU lawyers also point out that while 1July short ext may seem a chunk of time, PM would need to be sure that’s all she needs. Otherwise UK must decide v soon: early April, I’m told - if taking part in European Parliamentary elex - in order to organise legally and practically

EU lawyers’ nightmare though they know v unlikely is: PM asks for short extension then revokes article 50 (cancels #Brexit) after it’s too late for UK to hold European Parliamentary elex. Rendering the Parliament and all its decisions legally unsound bc of absence of UK MEPs

Correction to first point /6 above (hand slap for texting too fast) : Nothing in EU treaties says UK could NOT request another extension - legally - politically is another question! If it asks for long extension to start with

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1108034667075330048

Barnier lays out 3 questions EU leaders have to grapple with on extensions: 1. Does an extension increase chance of ratification? 2. Is it time to rework the political declaration? 3. How can EU ensure that the end of the extension we are not back in the same situation as today?

Well, if it's any consolidation, it seems EU's Brexit unity has collapsed when it comes to the question of an extension...

 

[Traitorfish]

Yes, this is correct. The Home Rule Crisis is the source of much of my understanding of UK government.

First as tragedy and et cetera.

 

[Hrothbern]

The cacophony is there indeed... in the newsmedia at least, but I think also in real

Barnier was not so disturbed today:

On the extension:
“An extension for what? Which ones are the objectives?" he asked.
He then specified three questions that leaders will ask before agreeing an extension:
* Does an extension increase the chances of ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement?
* Will the extension offer more time to rework the Political Declaration?
* How can the EU ensure it is not in the same position at the end of the extension?

On the May deal:
He reiterated the EU's offer that the Political Declaration, which sets out the framework for upcoming talks on the U.K.'s future relationship, "could be made more ambitious in the coming days if a majority in the House of Commons so wishes. If not what would be the purpose and the outcome of an extension?”

I think it's not so much, or only, the lenght of the extension, but also the conditions attached to it.
And will these extension conditions be made public before a third vote on a May deal with a changed Future Declaration add-on (with a softer Brexit) and when ?

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-long-brexit-delay-would-need-new-political-process/

 

[EnglishEdward]

The only legitimate reasons I can see for requesting an extension is to hold a general election or another referendum.

If Theresa May isn't prepared to propose that, the EU may say Revoke, Sign or Leave without a Deal.

 

[Takhisis]

Well... the DUP is starting to feel how significant they are for the Rees-Mogg club. Vassals are after all expendable in royal-court intrigues.

In an interesting Spectator blog, James Forsyth says that, although the talks between the government and the DUP about the backstop are going on, the DUP are worried that anything Theresa May promises about Great Britain maintaining regulatory alignment with Northern Ireland might not be honoured by her successor. Here is an extract.

One of those familiar with DUP thinking tells me that one concern they have is over the attitude of Theresa May’s successor to the provision that they are negotiating which would see the rest of the UK follow any regulations that Northern Ireland adopted in the backstop.

The government is offering to put this measure into the withdrawal agreement bill. This would give it force, particularly given that the WAB will be superior legislation. However, the eventual UK / EU trade deal could end up overriding this lock. I understand that yesterday the DUP put out feelers to the leading Brexiteer leadership candidates about how they would approach this issue and were not reassured by the answers that came back.

I think that somewhere in there ‘regulatory alignment’ stands, at least in part, for ‘we're not legalising abortions like they do in the metropolis or just south among the freed former colony’. But that's just paranoid me.

I've learnt a lot about the English way of Governance and Parliamentarism that I didn't know before. And I was more astonished with every turn of events. In any case, it's just a long advert for a written constitution and a clear set of rules on how to do stuff. Making stuff up as you go along and "setting precedent" a la the English just seems like a recipe for disaster. And it makes you keep nonsensical traditions (the shouting! The maze! And so much more).

Actually it's a mace, not a maze, but even if one doesn't know that c and z can be pronounced the same way in Djerman the state of British politics makes it easy to see why you'd be confused.

The BBC has really fallen, or maybe I always had a falsely good image of them?

Or maybe you're paying attention to The Sun's editorial line?

 

[Cheetah]

Or maybe you're paying attention to The Sun's editorial line?

I know, I know. It's the Sun.

But they wouldn't lie about the reporter on the video being from the BBC, would they?

 

[Hrothbern]

The only legitimate reasons I can see for requesting an extension is to hold a general election or another referendum.

Yes.

Both need however better defintions
Elections are an open end arrangement. For example elections with a referendum not.
Referendum is still an open end arrangement. So what questions/options.

If Theresa May isn't prepared to propose that, the EU may say Revoke, Sign or Leave without a Deal.

If Theresa is not prepared to come with something meaningfull... so be it... what happens next is unilateral UK.