Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Silurian]

The only legitimate reasons I can see for requesting an extension is to hold a general election or another referendum.

If Theresa May isn't prepared to propose that, the EU may say Revoke, Sign or Leave without a Deal.

The EU wants the UK to make the choice rather than forcing the choice.

The EU would likely agree to an extension to hold a general election or another referendum but I doubt it would solve anything. I do not think a general election would solve the deadlock, maybe just swap May for Corbyn.

The country is still divided 50/50. It is likely that another referendum would again be fought with no clear idea of what type of Brexit we were voting for. It is likely to end with one or both sides feeling cheated.

If the EU does not give an extension many will feel dissatisfied by the option we chose and be hostile to the EU. If we revoke will there be another referendum in five years followed by no agreement on the type of Brexit. The May deal has little support from anyone, will we continue to argue amoungst ourselves until the end of 2020 when the withdrawal agreement ends, then what. Leaving without a deal will mean we will negotiate a series of deals with the EU and because there would be no timetable it would be draged out even further.


I doubt we have reached halfway in the Brexit process.

Maybe it will be nearly over by 2025.

 

[innonimatu]

As I've been saying, this has long become a blame game. The possibilities for any deal are not there. "May's deal" was indeed the only possible one after the way the managed negotiations (incompetently), that in that she told the truth. She will probably be able to say "I told you so" and win a new election, be aware. She is very much playing the game to win, she's not finished.

Canceling brexit (revoking Article 50) would obviously be a disaster for all parties involved and they know it: it would not end the division within the UK, rather the opposite, it would intensify it. It would keep the EU embroiled in that drama. It would keep people and businesses locked in permanent uncertainty.
"May's deal" failed and it should by now be obvious that it never had the support from the key players: Corbyn (and virtually all Labout) refusing it, even the allegedly "pro-EU" parties refusing it, Bercow torpedoing it. And May putting on a show of attempting concessions after being refused again and again, transparently burning time.
A new referendum is nearly as politically suicidal as cancelling brexit: deciding the question(s) would be divisive and leave a number of malcontents, the result is uncertain, and the only possible result that might pacify the country would be a confirmation of leave. If remain (assuming that it was again leave versus remain) won in a new referendum, there would immediately be cries for a third referendum. Leave winning again would shut up the remainers once and for all I guess.
Calling a new General Election now is suicidal both for the Tories and Labour. Brexit would be the central issue and they would be forced to take a side, both are too split for that. So neither actually wants an election prior to brexit being done with.

The only sane choice, the only viable choice, to let the country proceed and decide on new issues is leaving without a deal, once it is verified that a deal cannot be made. There is method to this apparent circus. @Silunian, you're 10 days away from reaching the end of the brexit process.

Then the negotiations for new agreements start. With the backstop off the table because exit has already happened. Then if the EU wants to actually make a favour to Ireland it must ease the making of a new deal. If Ireland was not always only a negotiating tool (which I believe it was).
The EU's problems, the threat posed by brexit, is not about Ireland being damaged. It is about the UK forming the nucleus of a viable alternative to the EU in western Europe and stripping away other counties from it. Italy is key, this increases the negotiation power of Italy dramatically. Also Switzerland's, which is in the process of being compelled to join the EU or else suffer economic damage. Italy leaving breaks the power of the EU, but they have been waiting to have an alternative to it. This is the real reason Brussels and the french and germans should be scared of a no-deal brexit. But they're not that smart, they think they can keep managing things. Perhaps they are right, no one can predict the future. But I guess they are wrong, brexit is very much a threat to the "european project". However by now I think they're not factoring that it and will let it happen.

This, politics, is all about what can and can not be done for the people making the decisions at the time. Noty about long term strategy, that is a quality (or a luxury) governments seldom display. Once you rule out what is politically impossible, you're left with what can happen. On brexit, unless red lines do get moved by either party on that deal, exit without any deal. I maintain that option is the best option for the UK given the position of the EU. It is not the best option for the bureaucratic and political monstrosity that is the EU, but the people of Europe will be better off if it manages to tear itself apart. Brexit opens a path for an easy, peaceful disassembly of it.

 

[metatron]

And I was more astonished with every turn of events. In any case, it's just a long advert for a written constitution and a clear set of rules on how to do stuff.

As citizen of that country with two books in a typical hotel room night stand... i would clap.
But i suppose i'll leave it at "hear, hear".

Making stuff up as you go along and "setting precedent" a la the English just seems like a recipe for disaster. And it makes you keep nonsensical traditions (the shouting! The maze! And so much more).

Mace. (I assume you mean that implement that they have.)

A maze is - typically - a thing made of hedges, possibly with overdressed women in it wielding tiny umbrellas or something.

Ah, i see, Takh already got this. My bad.

The BBC has really fallen, or maybe I always had a falsely good image of them?

Or maybe you're paying attention to The Sun's editorial line?

Well, directly after the cut that blonde woman that can be seen there appears to call him a "traitor".
We may speculate on the editorial intent regarding that cut.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Meanwhile apparently UK unemployment falls to a 44 year low
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/19/uk-unemployment-falls-brexit-jobless-rate
I supose it is fake news, but I can not quite see the magician moving his hands.

Brexit is good for the EU /s

Germany's 2018 unemployment hits record yearly low
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-2018-unemployment-hits-record-yearly-low/a-46957682

 

[mitsho]

[your whole impressively long treatise]

Nah, I don‘t think so and I think someone has to disagree. I guess only time will tell.

As citizen of that country with two books in a typical hotel room night stand... i would clap.
But i suppose i'll leave it at "hear, hear".

Mace. (I assume you mean that implement that they have.)

A maze is - typically - a thing made of hedges, possibly with overdressed women in it wielding tiny umbrellas or something.

Ah, i see, Takh already got this. My bad.

One small little typo and I get dragged through the streets here... tzz... That‘s not nice ;-) And now I‘m not sure if that saying exists as well in English but you probably get what I meant ;-).

 

[Akka]

The EU's problems, the threat posed by brexit, is not about Ireland being damaged. It is about the UK forming the nucleus of a viable alternative to the EU in western Europe and stripping away other counties from it.

Aaaah yes, obviously the EU is bad because it's just a way for globalist capitalism to subjugate the people of the continent, and the best hope to fight this injustice is to make a purely market-driven union with the single most capitalist country of the EU. That's sure going to fix things up !

 

[Hrothbern]

Aaaah yes, obviously the EU is bad because it's just a way for globalist capitalism to subjugate the people of the continent, and the best hope to fight this injustice is to make a purely market-driven union with the single most capitalist country of the EU. That's sure going to fix things up !

Imagine all those Brits driving Italian cars.
The UK no car industry, but Italy has one !
And once the tariff and non-tariff trade barriers are all removed between the UK and Italy, some superior Singapore recipe, Italy is going to devalue its NewLira until everybody in the UK buys Fiat.
And no... I do not think Italians are going to eat Cheddar cheese with Beer.

 

[Hrothbern]

Friday next week is March 29

Today:
* May is writing a letter to the EU-Council asking a short extension.
* The EU-Council, Juncker, reacted with stating that the EU PM's will likely not decide on that this week Thurday, but in a special meeting next week.
* Leadsom, Tory, leader of the House of Commons stated that a long extension would need approval of the Parliament.
(IDK if that is the correct assessment of procedures and status, but it is her formal role).
And the gossip news of today: When May will visit Thursday the EU-Council to plea for her short extension, Barnier will just have finished his meeting with Corbyn, who visits Brussels.


Interesting timing effects, for example:
Next week the EU PM's say "no" to the letter of May, only a long extension + reason (election, referendum, or something else significant) will do for a "yes".
How many days are then still left ?
And then what in those days ?
A Parliament approval for a longer extension + the dreaded decision on what argument ?

And what else to do for May in the UK this week and the first days of next week ?
Take the decision to have a Parliament vote on suspending that rule Bercow explained ? (which is the procedure needed)
And after a "yes" put forward the May deal for a third vote (with still little chance to succeed)

In theory the alternative for getting her deal voted upon is to ask the EU to change the Future Relation add-on into a soft-Brexit, like a Customs Union. Yes will no doubt follow and then the third vote on May's deal is allowed by Bercow.
But I do not see happen that May does that softening of her deal.

The abyss getting closer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ntary-approval-uks-leadsom-says-idUSKCN1R10XM
https://www.politico.eu/article/no-...k-long-brexit-delay-as-eu-flags-extra-summit/

 

[Cheetah]

But what is the reasoning within May's request for extension? What will be changed by the end of it? I can't find any statement of that.

 

[Silurian]

So does this mean she is going for an extension until the end of 2020.

From BBC

The prime minister told MPs she was "not prepared to delay Brexit any further than the 30 June".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47636011

 

[Hrothbern]

But what is the reasoning within May's request for extension? What will be changed by the end of it? I can't find any statement of that.

IDK
and I saw also from other articles no mentioning on what the argument would be for a short extension.
AFAIK, at least from public statements, there is only a willingnes from the EU to give a short extension if her May deal is agreed by Parliament, for practicalities like the legislation update.

The Cabinet meeting on that decision for a short or long extension was very divided. Comments from newsmedia suggesting she was "forced" to an errand for a short extension. But was she "forced" ? IDK.
Perhaps when she is in Brussels, she has an argument for a short extension.... and perhaps not !
Will not be the first time that she really comes empty-handed in Brussels.
And perhaps she has several not really defined arguments, she cannot disclose now, because of being shot down on them in the UK, and haggles with the EU on them, and perhaps comes back with one.

Perhaps they, May and the EU in Brussels, do not discuss that much about that short extension at all !
Perhaps they continue talking about what the minimal necessary softening is in the Political Declaration. After all Barnier meets Corbyn in Brussels just before that meeting.

IDK

How interesting UK politics is at this time.
The UK divorcing from the EU and the EU dealing with both May as Corbyn separately, who are not on real speaking terms with each other. Oh o o

So does this mean she is going for an extension until the end of 2020.

From BBC



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47636011

Well the argument she uses to extend to June 30, is a poor one indeed: "she needs more time for her deal" after herself only burning time and now blaming Bercow.

Silurian, how do you conclude to an extension to end 2020 from that article ?

 

[Akka]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ntary-approval-uks-leadsom-says-idUSKCN1R10XM

The title of this article was "Long Brexit delay would need parliamentary approval".
I managed to first read "Long Brexit delay would need parental approval".
I actually wonder if the second version isn't more adequate.

 

[Silurian]

Silurian, how do you conclude to an extension to end 2020 from that article ?

It would be consistent for her to say one thing and do another.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Well, I have read the letter at.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47641357

Something about being in a hole and still digging.

 

[Silurian]

@EnglishEdward I expect the EU will agree an extension but I do not think anything will come from it.
The May deal will loose by a hundred votes next time.

Then it will come down to no deal followed by deals or remain. Parliament will then vote remain and the Conservative Party will tear itself apart.

 

[Hrothbern]

Can someone with blinkers blink ?

 

[Silurian]

So we get an extension if we pass the withdrawal agreement.

 

[Lexicus]

By the withdrawal agreement you mean May's deal? That seems to make little sense...if May's deal is passed what need for an extension?

 

[Hrothbern]

Legislation update etc

With that extension guaranteed she can hold the vote very late next week, leaving not much room after that vote
if "no" on her vote... no-deal is near... unless Labour votes yes on the May deal... nice challenge for Labour what way to go to avoid that

 

[uppi]

By the withdrawal agreement you mean May's deal? That seems to make little sense...if May's deal is passed what need for an extension?

The extension would be for providing time to pass the necessary legislation. Although the deal does provide a transition period, there are still changes which need to be implemented in law.

And don't forget that the European parliament needs to agree to this as well. Even if the UK parliament could somehow pass the deal this week, time would be awfully tight.

In any case, the EU should reject this request for an extension. They would be stupid to agree to this.