Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Kyriakos]

A bit more back to Brexit, though in the wider sense that the EU is to blame for the economical stagnation after the crisis (leading to more austerity), leading to broad masses of both left and right voting Leave.
First of all: the UK had its own currency and was fully free from the EU to her own monetary policies.
Secondly: the UK had in 2008 a govt debt of 40% of GDP. That's low and gives enormous financial room to apply fiscal policies after the 2008 crisis, that have as such high multipliers on GDP growth, because of that low % debt and also because of a traditional strong currency and financial standing of GBP (low-risk=>lower interest).
Thirdly: the UK blew up its social cohesion, its very low Gini, in the 80ies under Thatcher, that put the lower incomes in the position of second rank citizens, which went ok-ish as long as the economy as a whole did grow fast enough, but started to get ugly when the growth stagnated. The Gini mainwhile high compared to developed EU countries
Besides all the nationalistics and politics that got so much attention... the UK, Thatcher choose the biggest diverge from the social European model in the 80ies, continued more moderate under subsequent PM's that diverge, and paid the price in the form of broad disappointed masses seeking an escape, a change whatever, a scapegoat (the EU).
The big spin that Farrage-Johnson-Rees-Mogg delivered was to canalise that disappointment towards an opportunity for a hard-right neoliberal change on top of the Thatcher diverge.

Comparing the UK with EU overall, or some EU countries seems ok to me. But for example Greece specifics not anymore related to the UK-EU analysis need perhaps a Greece-EU quarantaine thread.
Let me only add to Greece, that imo Greece screwed up big style like the UK in the 80ies. You could even say since 1974 when the military junta was brought down, because inflation goes almost immediately up to 20% until 1992, and the govt debt from 20% to 100% of GDP in 1992 and continues at 100% until 2008. And just like with Major in the UK, governing by neglect going with the flow consolidating the Thatcher diverge, Greece, continues its devastating economical policies until the 2008 crisis, pooring money from borrowings in the economy landing very soon in the hands of the rich, that do not invest or consume in Greece. The difference being with UK that Greece is in fact in 1992 totally ready for bankruptcy which does not happen because the international Capital lowers gradually its interests on Greece bonds during 1992-2000 from 25% to German rates of 5%.
Saying that the EU is guilty for Brexit or Grexit, for broad masses of unhappy people is misleading. Is ignoring Thatcher, is ignoring that Greece should have defaulted in 1992 with its own currency the Drachma.

Recall the debt to gdp ratio of germany a few years back? And germany is a country which exists for less years than modern greece and has defaulted for far more times and cheated its way out of paying creditors by mass devaluation of the dm and buys officials in other countries with public money via companies like siemens. Tldr, if you are looking for the most corrupt and stealing country, look no further than to your immediate right. Ffs, that is a country which has had its ww2 debt sliced and still hasnt paid ww2 treaty debt to greece. Ie it is a farcical entity which should have died with ww2, and should never lead any euro union.

 

[Arakhor]

Moderator Action: We are not going to have another rendition of Germany vs Greece in this thread. Start a new thread if you must.

 

[Cheetah]

So as part of the no-deal preparations the UK is hiring Brittany Ferries (France) and DFDS (Denmark) to set up extra routes to the UK, so make it a bit easier on Dover.

And this guy has been given 14 million pounds for... well, because... well, at least he's British, and not an evil EU-man.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ferry-contract-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c2910d5e4b0407e9083c39e

Seaborne Freight has been awarded a £13.8 million contract to run a freight service between Ramsgate and Ostend.

The BBC has reported that a local councillor said it would be impossible to launch before quitting the European Union because it had “never moved a single truck in their entire history”.

Seaborne Freight was formed less than two years ago to revive the Ramsgate-Ostend line, and has insisted it will launch its service before March 29 - the date when the UK is due to leave the bloc.

 

[Hrothbern]

So as part of the no-deal preparations the UK is hiring Brittany Ferries (France) and DFDS (Denmark) to set up extra routes to the UK, so make it a bit easier on Dover.

And this guy has been given 14 million pounds for... well, because... well, at least he's British, and not an evil EU-man.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ferry-contract-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c2910d5e4b0407e9083c39e

From that BBC article:
"Chief executive Ben Sharp said the firm had been founded by seasoned shipping veterans".

That's for sure a relief...
especially because that CEO is seasoned in running a ship company to the ground.

Several years ago, he was CEO of Mercator International, which documents from the Companies House Show were registered at an address in Hythe, Folkestone 2009

, Ramsgate harbor.
The company weighted when it was subject to liquidation and forced to liquidate the HMRC over unpaid tax in 2014. [19659002] Mercator International's 2013 financial statements show that it is obligatory for all liabilities to pay a total of SEK 1.78 million.
In response to questions about the company's closure, Sharp Times told us, "The Seaborne Freight directors are experienced businessmen with a long history in the industry. This is of course not unusual. "
https://vaaju.com/uk/seaborne-freig...kestone-that-collapsed-due-to-large-tax-bill/

 

[Kyriakos]

The ferry thing is still the best to come out of brexit

 

[Silurian]

The ferry thing is still the best to come out of brexit

There are no ferries, they have no contracts with ports to dock ferries but there are 150 lorries ready to deliver pizza.

 

[Kyriakos]

So the best the tory gov could find has no history of owning own vessels and apparently left debts of over 1 million pounds. That is rather ridiculous.

 

[Hrothbern]

So the best the tory gov could find has no history of owning own vessels and apparently left debts of over 1 million pounds. That is rather ridiculous.

Remember my graph with the GFCF, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation as % of GDP of the UK, benchmarked against other EU countries. The sum of physical assets updated every year with new invests and with disposals. That indicator is very low in the UK.

Perhaps the UK had no free, no surplus ferries available in UK owned companies. High utilisation existing ferries ? Lack of willingness to invest in the ferry business ? IDK.

We get possibly the same with the fishing.
Lots of the actual fishing was "outsourced" to EU ships (perhaps forced or perhaps because fishing was just a bargaining chip for Westminster to get something else from the EU)
The UK has not that many fishing ships. And it does take some time to build them. The fish will prosper for sure during that disruption
And will people, investors/banks, dare to invest in ships after a no-deal ? Is the financial return high enough ?, high enough for the risk ?
Or will they be afraid that in the medium run the old situation is restored: EU catching fish with self-employed fishermen, and mostly delivering to medium-big sized UK fish processing companies, who on their turn add value and export most of the fish to the EU for a higher price.

But hey... what about those EU ships getting an UK flag ?

 

[innonimatu]

Sure, they should have, but they didn't want to accept the consequences and return to drachma.

The government didn't. The greeks were only asked one thing: accept or refuse the terms pushed on Greece after its government had completely screwed up Greece's position in negotiations. Even so, even then, a majority of the voters refused it. The government then betrayed them and capitulated.

Your narrative is simply false unless by "they" you mean "the government, against the majority of the people's will".

Greece certainly would have much preferred getting more money for domestic spending and to hell with creditors. Calling it "loans" would then have been misleading; under such terms "humanitarian aid" would have been more precise. Sadly for them they failed to convince anyone that they were deserving of such aid.

@Yeekim, what are interest rates? Are they humanitarian aid? Or are they part of a business deal?

Greek debt paid huge interest rates. That meant risk. Investors who bought that debt knew fully well the risk they were getting into, and were motivated by greed, not by any humanitarian intentions. Defaulting on debt that no longer can be paid under normal conditions is part of what was supposed to be the normal process of capitalism. Part of the rules agreed to by everyone involved.

The greeks did not actually need further loans, they just needed to get rid of interest payments. As it happened they were forced to keep serving debt, thus reducing even further their available funds. Forced not under the rules that all parties had agreed upon regarding debt, but under new rules made up after the crisis blew, with the sole purpose of saving the foreign creditors of Greece. This was debt bondage in the 21sst century, enforced by the institutions of the EU, chiefly the ECB.

No you haven't! Your two opinions are that the EU is weak and stupid, and that the EU is evil and domineering. You're able to interpret absolutely everything as "evidence" supporting one of these and believe yourself vindicated. Its a rigged game you're playing with yourself.

I was right when I pointed out that the greek government had an entirely wrong strategy (negotiate, as if rules would not be broken to screw them) and was setting itself up for defeat. Varoufarkis then childishly complained that the Eurogroup did not respect the EU's own law. The man was an idiot, the Eurogroup itself was an outlaw group.
They should have prepared to leave, defaulted, and left. That the government was incompetent and fed its people lies and false hopes did not meant that the people wanted to remain in the EU under the terms that would necessarily be forced upon them, instead of defaulting and organizing grexit with time and when the international creditors would be harmed and brought to the table to make concessions.

I am right about the Irish border being Ireland's, and the EU's problem, not the UK's. That the british government under May has failed to say so, and been so incompetent as to have accepted the deal the EU shoved on them does not change this.

Going further back I do not recall if you were one of the warmongers about Libya and Syria, following what was fed to the population by the mass media. Look how those turned out...

 

[innonimatu]

Comparing the UK with EU overall, or some EU countries seems ok to me. But for example Greece specifics not anymore related to the UK-EU analysis need perhaps a Greece-EU quarantaine thread.
...
Saying that the EU is guilty for Brexit or Grexit, for broad masses of unhappy people is misleading. Is ignoring Thatcher, is ignoring that Greece should have defaulted in 1992 with its own currency the Drachma.

The example of what was done to Greece, the EU riding over its own rules to force a member country into submission using whatever means available, has surely been in the mind of some of the voters in the UK. I know that in my own country it shattered the naif belief that half the left here had about the EU being a force for good. Now they're all against it, though not making much noise yet, bidding their time for the next crisis.

If the Greek crisis example of the lawlessness and rule of the stronger within the EU, if the use of the EU's institutional machinery to crush political choices of member states, swayed 1% of the voters in the UK, it's very relevant to the referendum. And it will still be relevant in the future. If the EU had displayed and abused its power over Greece the way it did, its popularity might now be different enough to matter. And not just in the UK, everywhere.

 

[Silurian]

back to Brexit

No one has posted any evidence that the UK demanded that the Common Travel Area be maintained or that the EU wanted or wants to end the Common Travel Area.

So it looks like claims about UK demands about the Common Travel Area were false since the poster was unable to back up their claims.

 

[innonimatu]

When was the Guardian taken over by the City bankers.
Or are you saying that any limited company is owned by bankers!
Do you have a link.

From Wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Trust_Limited

The wiky entry is technically true, but serves the purpose of discouraging people from digging deeper. It's not innocent. As I mentioned in a previous brexit thread:

The Guardian was a Trust, and one meant to be managed by its employees who were eventually promoted to members of the trust. The trust was disbanded and it is now a company, with management gradually being taken from and appointed by outsiders. Notice the possible differences? Guess how Alex Graham (a TV producer) and Vivian Schiller (an american formerly from the NYT, NBC and twitter) got their places there, because I can't!

But I can give you a hint, from the few existing public records on the company. Among the 13 board members sit Neil Becket (chairman), CEO of Virgin Media Holdings, Ole Jacob Sunde, chairman of Formuesforvaltning AS (norwegian "wealth management"), and Anthony Salz, executive director of N. M. Rothschild & Sons (the infamous bank) and executive at Barclays. You can also make a guess at how these got in the board. Oh right, the Guardian sold most of its assets and put the money in a fund managed by bankers! Perhaps, just perhaps, they have a vested interest in the welfare of the City?

If you do not believe me do the ddigging yourself, these are facts on public records. This Scott Trust Limited is meant to be a investment vehicle to fund the Guardian. Naturally bankers were recruited to manage it. But the board of this trust, these bankers and their pals, now gets to pick the editors, and set the line for the newspaper. Without spending anything, indeed actually receiving nice commissions for investment management, the bankers now control the newspaper.

The history of how this was done is interesting, I got it from a banker who was nicely talkative, unfortunately I'm not at liberty to quote it. Basically the Guardian was losing money, had just a few publications bringing in profits (something about the auto market?). The old management decided to liquidate all those holdings (sell them) and create this trust to "live from income". I'd love to have known the internal politics involved, but I don't. Ironic isn't it? The supposed "newspaper of the left" now depends on the success of wealth management! It is impossible that people in the old management didn't see the implications.

back to Brexit
o it looks like claims about UK demands about the Common Travel Area were false since the poster was unable to back up their claims.

You had a reading problem with that government paper I liked to some pages back, or what? I'm telling you again, I'm not going to do more your homework.

 

[really]

I am right about the Irish border being Ireland's, and the EU's problem, not the UK's. That the british government under May has failed to say so, and been so incompetent as to have accepted the deal the EU shoved on them does not change this.

More British soldiers died in Northern Ireland than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. The UK border is very much the UK's problem.

The EU putting the interests of a small member ahead of the €£$ of a trade deal must really rankle with the EU haters.

 

[innonimatu]

More British soldiers died in Northern Ireland than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. The UK border is very much the UK's problem.

The EU putting the interests of a small member ahead of the €£$ of a trade deal must really rankle with the EU haters.

We'll see in the end what becomes of Ieland's interests, just three months to go. In the event of no deal the UK can just, in the immediate aftermath, leave the border unguarded and say, truthfully, that it hasn't blocked it. Can Ireland do the same on their side?

Which country will be deploying soldiers and harassing irish people if that scenario comes to pass?

 

[really]

We'll see in the end what becomes of Ieland's interests, just three months to go. In the event of no deal the UK can just, in the immediate aftermath, leave the border unguarded and say, truthfully, that it hasn't blocked it. Can Ireland do the same on their side?

Which country will be deploying soldiers and harassing irish people if that scenario comes to pass?

If this comes to pass we know what has changed to cause it and who is to blame for that.
It will not be Ireland's or the EU's fault.

 

[Silurian]

The wiky entry is technically true, but serves the purpose of discouraging people from digging deeper. It's not innocent. As I mentioned in a previous brexit thread:

If you do not believe me do the ddigging yourself, these are facts on public records. This Scott Trust Limited is meant to be a investment vehicle to fund the Guardian. Naturally bankers were recruited to manage it. But the board of this trust, these bankers and their pals, now gets to pick the editors, and set the line for the newspaper. Without spending anything, indeed actually receiving nice commissions for investment management, the bankers now control the newspaper.

The history of how this was done is interesting, I got it from a banker who was nicely talkative, unfortunately I'm not at liberty to quote it. Basically the Guardian was losing money, had just a few publications bringing in profits (something about the auto market?). The old management decided to liquidate all those holdings (sell them) and create this trust to "live from income". I'd love to have known the internal politics involved, but I don't. Ironic isn't it? The supposed "newspaper of the left" now depends on the success of wealth management! It is impossible that people in the old management didn't see the implications.

Most people who have a hundred million or so to invest for the future employ bankers and investment managers to manage the money. Who would you get to look after such a sum. By your definition of taking over any one who has a pension fund has been taken over by the bankers.

You had a reading problem with that government paper I liked to some pages back, or what? I'm telling you again, I'm not going to do more your homework.

The UK wants to keep the Common Travel Area at present, Eire wants to keep the Common Travel Area. The EU has no problems that anyone has linked with the Common Travel Area. Since no one has a problem with it why would the UK be demanding it, you would state something along the lines of there being no problems with it.

back to Brexit

So it looks like claims about UK demands about the Common Travel Area were false since the poster was unable to back up their claims.

Strange editing by innonimatu of my post above. Why remove the S

 

[innonimatu]

Strange editing by innonimatu of my post above. Why remove the S

I intend to steal and hold for ransom all the instances of the letter S in the world. Now excuse me while I go pet my white cat...

The UK wants to keep the Common Travel Area at present, Eire wants to keep the Common Travel Area. The EU has no problems that anyone has linked with the Common Travel Area. Since no one has a problem with it why would the UK be demanding it, you would state something along the lines of there being no problems with it.

Honestly I lost track of what was the issue to begin with. But it was probably about the allegation that a backstop was necessary or else the border would be closed for the people of the island.

 

[Silurian]

I intend to steal and hold for ransom all the instances of the letter S in the world. Now excuse me while I go pet my white cat...

I assume you will want Silver in recompense.

Honestly I lost track of what was the issue to begin with. But it was probably about the allegation that a backstop was necessary or else the border would be closed for the people of the island.

No it was your statement that the UK was demanding free ... movement for citizens.
The EU has no problems with the Common Travel Area so the UK would not be demanding it.
The UK has problems with the free movement of citizens, of the EU, so would not be demanding it.

 

[Takhisis]

You are a broken record

See here:

No you haven't! Your two opinions are that the EU is weak and stupid, and that the EU is evil and domineering. You're able to interpret absolutely everything as "evidence" supporting one of these and believe yourself vindicated. Its a rigged game you're playing with yourself.

kthxbai

 

[Kyriakos]

See here:

kthxbai

Inno uses arguments. That isnt the same with posting the same ridiculous simple-as-it-gets line for years; the latter at best makes you an unintended comedian and usually something more sunk in the swamp in need of draining by leprous h2so4 spewing platypodes