Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[brennan]

209 MPs signed a letter asking May to rule out no deal. May's deal sounds like it has no chance of passing.

Rescind A50 and remain is the obvious option.

 

[Hrothbern]

209 MPs signed a letter asking May to rule out no deal. May's deal sounds like it has no chance of passing.

Rescind A50 and remain is the obvious option.

yes
but there is still a lot of water going to flow through the Thames before the real endgame starts for what needs to happen for March 29..

After a plan B1 of May to no-deal (I edited my post to make that clear), and all the chaos, she can again put as plan B-2 her EU-deal forward with that one jot change.

If after the vote on Jan 15 or after that plan B the no-confidence vote comes, we are in a new phase ofc.

 

[Hrothbern]

I think that (Martin Barnier's) Plan B wll be for his sock pupprt TM to ask the
EU for a six month extension during which another referendum will occur.

Michel Barnier cannot really say no to that request for a new referendum as reason for extension.
I meanwhile doubt whether the EU as a whole is comfortable with a UK returning to the EU with a narrow majority for Remain in such a new referendum.
It becomes almost a choice between two negatives for many... in the UK (for the people) and in the EU (for many politicians).
Would really become a marriage of convenience.

 

[mitsho]

Wasn't the timetable for everything to be clear to allow EU national parliaments to vote on this end of November? It's just so mind-boggling that I have decided to not follow it anymore...

 

[Silurian]

Wasn't the timetable for everything to be clear to allow EU national parliaments to vote on this end of November? It's just so mind-boggling that I have decided to not follow it anymore...

That is correct it still has to be passed by each individual EU27 country. I assume that is a near certainty at the moment but if the deal is changed then they will all want to look at it again. So even if the EU could agree some change it is quite likely there would not be enough time for the changes to be agreed by the individual EU27 countries.

 

[Hrothbern]

That is correct it still has to be passed by each individual EU27 country. I assume that is a near certainty at the moment but if the deal is changed then they will all want to look at it again. So even if the EU could agree some change it is quite likely there would not be enough time for the changes to be agreed by the individual EU27 countries.

I have not gotten the impression that May, and others, give a damn about the democratic integrity of the other EU members.
She does not even have it for her own parliament.

The only interest May showed in the individual EU members was how to divide them among each other to weaken the position of Barnier.

 

[uppi]

Wasn't the timetable for everything to be clear to allow EU national parliaments to vote on this end of November? It's just so mind-boggling that I have decided to not follow it anymore...

I think it is only the council of the EU and the EU parliament that have to approve. While the UK have their internal struggle the EU institutions have been preparing all the necessary steps to get the approvals. This does take some time (hence the timetable), but on the EU end everything seems to be on track.

I think the EU27 parliaments only get to vote once a treaty about the future relationship has been negotiated. Since the exit deal doesn't actually specify anything about that, the national parliaments are not involved. I might be wrong though, I am confused by all this as well.

The only interest May showed in the individual EU members was how to divide them among each other to weaken the position of Barnier.

I don't think she tried particularly hard at that. May has accomplished what almost no one ever has: Completely unite the EU over a single issue.

 

[Hrothbern]

I think it is only the council of the EU and the EU parliament that have to approve. While the UK have their internal struggle the EU institutions have been preparing all the necessary steps to get the approvals. This does take some time (hence the timetable), but on the EU end everything seems to be on track.

I think the EU27 parliaments only get to vote once a treaty about the future relationship has been negotiated. Since the exit deal doesn't actually specify anything about that, the national parliaments are not involved. I might be wrong though, I am confused by all this as well.



I don't think she tried particularly hard at that. May has accomplished what almost no one ever has: Completely unite the EU over a single issue.

For the withdrawal deal AFAIK also there is no approval needed by the national parliaments of the EU-27 from the EU procedures.

However
When there is a no-deal, the governments of the EU-27 countries will need to take a lot of decisions because of all kinds of unforeseen events because of the chaotic effects.
(I am not talking about additional capacities at customs, general rights for UK citizens in EU countries, etc).

So... for example here inNL, there has been made a special Brexit emergency law that covers Brexit calamities and enables a short cut for the Ministers and the Cabinet for ad hoc decisions, to be accounted for in parliament after the decision.
And ofc there are all kinds of discussions what kind of calamities can be foreseen now, or can bear the couple of days delay for the normal parliamentary approval. etc, etc.
It is not going to win the beauty contest of our normal democratic parliamentary process.
It will damage.
EDIT And lots of that damage would have been avoidable if the original time table was kept. Now the final situation will only be clear just before it happens.

I repeat:

I have not gotten the impression that May, and others, give a damn about the democratic integrity of the other EU members.
She does not even have it for her own parliament.

The only interest May showed in the individual EU members was how to divide them among each other to weaken the position of Barnier.

 

[Silurian]

Looks like the agreement does not have to be ratified by the individual countries parliaments. Obvoiusly changing the current agreement would involve input from all the EU27 governments.

From EU

The EU and UK negotiators will continue their work on the political declaration on the framework for the future relationship based on the outline published today. It is up to the President of the European Council to decide whether and when to convene a meeting of the 27 Heads of State or Government. It will be up to the European Council (Article 50) to endorse the Withdrawal Agreement and the joint political declaration on the framework of the future relationship.

Once the Withdrawal Agreement is endorsed by the European Council (Article 50), and before it can enter into force, it needs to be ratified by the EU and the UK. For the EU, the Council of the European Union must authorise the signature of the Withdrawal Agreement, before sending it to the European Parliament for its consent. The United Kingdom must ratify the agreement according to its own constitutional arrangements.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6424_en.htm

 

[Cheetah]

When Tory member Adam Holloway questioned his partiality due to an anti-Brexit sticker supposedly hanging in his car, the Commons Speaker responded



Seriously, though: This is all going great...

Honda plans six-day shutdown post-Brexit
Honda UK has said it will shut down its Swindon factory for six days in April as part of its preparations for any disruption caused post-Brexit.

The Japanese-owned car giant said the move was to ensure it could adjust to "all possible outcomes caused by logistics and border issues".

The firm said it would help in recovering lost production if shipments of parts were held up at borders.

[...]

No deal 'not an option'
Meanwhile, Japanese car giant Toyota said it had "no contingency for no deal".

A Toyota spokesperson said: "We need a deal. We will have peak production in March because we have a new model, the Corolla.

"There is no planned production stop. No deal is not an option for us. We operate lean manufacturing and hold hours of inventory at the plant."

[...]

Counting the cost
Last year, the senior vice-president of Honda Europe warned that if the UK left the EU without a deal, it would cost his company tens of millions of pounds.

[...]

78 days to go.

 

[Senethro]

The way I see it, there are six major MP factions:

A) Honest Leavers who cannot countenance the May (really the EU's) deal recognising it as a fraud who will vote against and accept the risks of chaos.
B) Dishonest Leavers (e.g. Gove and e.g. Fox) who say they will vote for it, thinking they can replace May and renegotiate or simply repudiate the agreement that they voted for.
C) Honest Remainers who want an election and/or another referendum and will therefore vote aginst it..
D) Dishonest Remainers (Theresa May) who will vote for it, seeing it as a prelude to the UK belatedly realising that it has not in fact left the EU, begging for restoration of voting rights.
E) Revolutionary socialists (Jeremy Corbyn) who will vote against it hoping socialism shall arise from the chaos.
F) Scots nationalists who will vote against it hoping that an independent Scotland will come out of the chaos.




I think that (Martin Barnier's) Plan B wll be for his sock pupprt TM to ask the
EU for a six month extension during which another referendum will occur.

Haha, if Brexit isn't good its because a true Brexiteer wasn't at the helm, not because a good Brexit was always impossible. Thus is introspection averted.

 

[Takhisis]

The way I see it, there are six major MP factions:

A) Honest Leavers who cannot countenance the May (really the EU's) deal recognising it as a fraud who will vote against and accept the risks of chaos.
B) Dishonest Leavers (e.g. Gove and e.g. Fox) who say they will vote for it, thinking they can replace May and renegotiate or simply repudiate the agreement that they voted for.
C) Honest Remainers who want an election and/or another referendum and will therefore vote aginst it..
D) Dishonest Remainers (Theresa May) who will vote for it, seeing it as a prelude to the UK belatedly realising that it has not in fact left the EU, begging for restoration of voting rights.
E) Revolutionary socialists (Jeremy Corbyn) who will vote against it hoping socialism shall arise from the chaos.
F) Scots nationalists who will vote against it hoping that an independent Scotland will come out of the chaos.

So voting for Leave and then changing one's mind is the same as campaigning for Remain and then cheerfully implement Brexit?

 

[Kyriakos]

That is correct it still has to be passed by each individual EU27 country. I assume that is a near certainty at the moment but if the deal is changed then they will all want to look at it again. So even if the EU could agree some change it is quite likely there would not be enough time for the changes to be agreed by the individual EU27 countries.

That isnt a reality; such things pass automatically.
I am still not seing how the uk parliament can negate the referendum so easily. I also am not seing how brexit mps are not backing may out of mere dislike for a new ref.
Besides, wont parliament have to cancel its own end of neg re this part by march 29? And why would there be enough votes to do that?

 

[Hrothbern]

I also am not seing how brexit mps are not backing may out of mere dislike for a new ref.

I think the Brexit Tories want to ditch May in order to take over the Tory cabinet either after a no-deal or a May deal.
In both cases they blame May and others for everything that went and goes wrong and will head firmly to quick fix FTA's with third countries starting with the US.
Their internal coupe failed, and now it has to be done through the more messy and risky route, starting with not backing May for the vote.

And yes... they do run the risk of May/the parliament crashing out to a new referendum needing an extension of Art 50.
They also run the risk of fast new elections and Labour wins. But from the recent polls that is not that likely.
And then the question becomes who will be the new Tory leader.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think the Brexit Tories want to ditch May in order to take over the Tory cabinet either after a no-deal or a May deal.
In both cases they blame May and others for everything that went and goes wrong and will head firmly to quick fix FTA's with third countries starting with the US.
Their internal coupe failed, and now it has to be done through the more messy and risky route, starting with not backing May for the vote.

And yes... they do run the risk of May/the parliament crashing out to a new referendum needing an extension of Art 50.
They also run the risk of fast new elections and Labour wins. But from the recent polls that is not that likely.
And then the question becomes who will be the new Tory leader.

Possibly david davidian davidon davis, but if labour loses again it will be due to the pitiful blairites. Both parties have mps who just care about their own survival and apparently dont mind being utter clowns.

 

[Hrothbern]

Possibly david davidian davidon davis, but if labour loses again it will be due to the pitiful blairites. Both parties have mps who just care about their own survival and apparently dont mind being utter clowns.

The Tory leadership succession race is in full swing at the moment. Many clowns indeed.

Blairites get for sure enough room in the media to hinder Corbyn. I think the main problem for Corbyn is how to keep the young new members enthusiast for the canvassing for the elections. And those young members are not blairites. They are a new breed with their own convictions on political objectives and political style.

 

[Kyriakos]

Iirc the tories cannot change leader in less time than a few months (procedural) and fwiw may already said she won't lead them in a new election.

 

[Arakhor]

Iirc the tories cannot change leader in less time than a few months (procedural) and fwiw may already said she won't lead them in a new election.

She didn't really choose to not lead them into a new election. Smart money is on her saying that as a last gasp to avoid losing the vote of no-confidence in her.

 

[Kyriakos]

She didn't really choose to not lead them into a new election. Smart money is on her saying that as a last gasp to avoid losing the vote of no-confidence in her.

She cannot win an election, though. Even with blairite garbage about. She just isn't the election type (maybe no other type either ).

 

[EnglishEdward]

here inNL, there has been made a special Brexit emergency law that covers Brexit calamities and enables a short cut for the Ministers and the Cabinet for ad hoc decisions, to be accounted for in parliament after the decision.

Good to read that NL are not relying on the EU.

I read an english translation of the French draft which seemed sensible.

So voting for Leave and then changing one's mind is the same as campaigning for Remain and then cheerfully implement Brexit?

Nope, nothing dishonest about changing one's mind.

What is dishonest is about putting forward a non withdrawal agreement and pretending it is a withdrawal agreement and/or knowingly voting for it.

... will head firmly to quick fix FTA's with third countries starting with the US......

They are not competent to do that.

We would be better off with WTO.

But it might be worth looking at the:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership

although the UK's only relevance to the Pacific is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitcairn_Islands