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Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by uppi, Dec 12, 2018.

  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Yes
    The EU-27 need an unanimous decision. One single EU country can stop the extension of the Art 50 period beyond March 29.
    That's why I think it is important that the UK can decide unilaterally to revoke Art 50.
    If May would make clear to the EU that she would do that, only to retrigger Art 50 after the new referendum, when that referendum decides no-deal or the May-deal, I think the EU countries that would vote against extension of Art 50, could choose to be persuaded.
    Choose...
    Because strictly considered, keeping the UK sovereign in its responsibility to handle its own choices, including burning all that time, keeping itself as EU out of domestic UK political issues, the EU could choose as well to let that revoking happen.

    A bit the same as the argument above:
    Why would the EU interfere with domestic and sovereign UK political choices on whether that referendum would exclude any of the 3 possibilities: no-deal, May-deal, Remain ?

    If the EU would exclude no-deal as condition for that Art 50 extension, the hardcore Leavers will blame the EU forever that they are imprisoned.

    Cameron, May as PM, the Tories had a big mouth about taking back control...
    well... let them have it... including the responsibility of the referendum choice on two or three questions.
     
  2. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Hardcore leavers are the most likely to blame the EU forever anyway.
     
  3. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Yes
    But that is No reason to give them a real argument
     
  4. Mega Tsunami

    Mega Tsunami Chieftain

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    Sorry, but this is just your opinion. There are many, many people who think that being outside the EU would be far better for us in the long run.
    You sound like one of those people who said ‘every sensible person knows we should join the Euro’. And look how that turned out.

    For example: Just this week, Port of Calais chief Jean-Marc Puissesseau debunked Project Fear predictions of hour long waits at the border, telling Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday: “There will be no delay".

    The point is: we just don’t know what it will like outside the EU. None of us knows. We have had 40 years in the EU, let’s honour the vote and give it (say) 10 years out of the EU. Only then will we know if Leaving was right and perhaps have a vote to rejoin (EU allowing, of course!).

    My bet is that the Remainers will be proved just as wrong as the Euro-lovers have been.

    Could be worse. We could be in the Euro.
    Maybe it is stuff like the following that will make the EU offer some sort of ‘backstop to the backstop’ on Tuesday:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/11/next-eurozone-crisis-has-already-started/
    The next eurozone crisis has already started

    From the Telegraph:
    Industrial output is crashing. Retail sales have stagnated. Business confidence has dropped, and investment is heading south. A sharp slowdown might have been expected for Britain heading out of the European Union, America where the president is busily ripping up half a century worth of carefully constructed trade agreements, or China, which has been on a decade of wild, credit-fuelled growth.

    But the real slowdown is happening in the one place where few economists expected it. It is now painfully obvious that the eurozone is heading into a sharp recession.


    The rest here:

    Spoiler :
    The numbers coming out of all its main economies, from Germany to France, Italy and Spain, are relentlessly bad. What does that mean? Far from winding up quantitative easing, the European Central Bank will be forced to step in with emergency measures to rescue a failing economy – but it may well prove too little, too late.

    2018 was meant to be the year when the eurozone consolidated its steady recovery, agreed on reforms to fix the flaws in the single currency, pressed forward with reforms to boost its competitiveness, and gave the rest of the world a lesson in balanced, sustainable growth. Over the past year, a ton of investors’ money has bought into the Euro-boom story. Steady recovery would drive voters away from populist parties, encourage reform, and create a virtuous circle of expansion and renewal.

    The script has not quite worked out as planned, however. Today bought yet another wave of disappointing numbers. Italian industrial production was down 2.6pc year on year. In Spain, industrial output was also down 2.6pc, the fastest rate of contraction since May 2013. The day before, we learned that French industrial output was down by 1.3pc in November, and Germany, which is meant to be the main engine of the continent, recorded a decline 1.9pc for the month, as well as re-calculating October’s data to show a steeper drop than reported earlier.

    The eurozone is now seeing a synchronised slowdown right across all its major economies. Germany looks certain to be in technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking output, and France and Italy will not be far behind. Spain, which had been growing faster than most of the continent, is slowing and so will the smaller economies. Add all that up, and it clear the whole continent is heading into a fresh downturn, even though employment and output have yet to recover their 2008 levels.
    Sure, there are some special factors to explain that. German industry has been hit by the slowdown of its massive auto industry, and especially the re-tooling of factories to meet new diesel and regulatory standards. In France, the Gilets Jaunes protestors haven’t exactly helped: riots and boarded up shops are not the kind of thing that encourages people to go out and spend money, even in a county that is used to protests. Italy is engulfed in a political fight with Brussels over its budget policies and is suffering a fresh round of banking problems. Arguably, once those are overcome, growth will get back to normal.

    Well, perhaps. The trouble is, those sound suspiciously like excuses. In fact, every economy always faces a few challenges, and the eurozone’s are no worse than anyone else’s. Indeed, they look relatively mild compared to many of its competitors. The UK has to contend with the chaos of Brexit, and the United States with rising interest rates, and rising protectionism. Even so, both are now growing faster.

    In fact, there are two big weaknesses. First, led by Germany, the whole of Europe has allowed itself to become dangerously dependent on exports. The German trade surplus at more than 8pc of GDP leaves that country brutally exposed to the cross-winds of global trade.
    But it not just Germany. In 2017, the surplus for the zone as a whole hit a massive €345bn, up from €207bn five years earlier. The whole continent is hooked on exports. Talk of trade wars, a slowdown in China, and a hit to the emerging markets all mean the European economy suffers first from any slowdown (Brexit is hardly helping either, with Germany’s surplus with the UK already narrowing and likely to fall further). An export-led model is great when the global economy is expanding – but can turn against you very quickly.

    Next, the euro remains a relentlessly deflationary currency that has ripped demand out of whole economies. With weakened banking systems, towering imbalances between the core and the periphery, puny wage growth, relentless austerity, and mass unemployment, it has proved itself over two decades incapable of generating any meaningful internal demand. Most countries can reflate their economies with consumer spending, easier credit, and a cheaper currency. The euro-zone can’t do any of that.

    The fleeting recovery of the 2017 and early 2018 now looks to have been fuelled purely by the two trillion of freshly minted euros the ECB threw at the economy. It has proved incapable of creating a self-sustaining recovery. The ECB was expected to start normalising policy this year, ending QE and raising interest rates. In the face of the latest data, a rise in rates can now be ruled out. The central bank is far more likely to have to start printing money again by the spring – but by then it may already be too late to pull the zone out of a slump.
     
  5. really

    really Chieftain

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    You do realise that the UK has similar very poor economic indicators at the moment?
    Ripping up your strategy of the past 40 or 50 years is brave. Changing it isn't going to be painless.
    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/industrial-production
    My guess would be that the initial bounce from Sterling's fall has worked its way out of the system and input costs have caught up.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I just did read an article on poll results on the difference between Brits and USians on what they understand when someone is saying "very brave" and veery brave a nice way to say that
    By Brits it seems to be translated by "insane"

    Now... you are Irish... and you said only brave
    ?



    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty...=website_article&utm_campaign=british_subtext

    Schermopname (2280).png
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019 at 5:41 AM
  7. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    It's still a 'brave' strategy, whether you're British or Irish, but the total balls-up at all levels of government for the last two years has gone way beyond "I only have a few minor comments".
     
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  8. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Temporary Pattern...still recognizably human...

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    Nice !
    Reminds me of this vid:



    The whole Brexit referendum might have been the result of a misunderstanding between Merkel and Cameron.
    Every time he asked if she would support him in the EU and she said "no", he understood it as "Maybe", "No, but I could be convinced" or "Not if you don't create more pressure".
    What she really meant was just "no".
     
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  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    There is no English word for "jein"
    (yes and no at the same time from ja & nein)
    and that means no is no
    Cameron screwed up the relation with Merkel (and many other old EU countries) fundamentally when he founded in 2009 the extreme rightwing ECR in the EU parliament and left with his Conservative the moderate right EPP (which is together with the Social Democrats the leading coalition since the start of the EU). His alliances with populist right wing in East Europe was a clear follow up from the efforts of the Tory UK over decades to use the East extension to attack the traditional EU-6.

    Language is difficult... I am learning all the time new words and expressions

    "balls up"
    I thought first that it was urban... in the direction of macho or caudillo balls... but no...
    though it did give the lead
    and that the balls turned into flags later on in time, leading to the red flag of the unions and the socialist movement a complete surprise
    That that first red flag, as signal for mutiny, was hoisted after no pay rise for 139 years for British Royal Navy sailors ofc again not really a surprise...

    Spoiler :
    From Urban:
    In current usage, any disastrous situation. The balls referred to are NOT testicles. The term dates from the days of wooden sailing ships when the existence of a shipboard disaster, such as plague, lack of food or water, mutiny, etc. was communicated to the outside world by hoisting large-ish, brightly painted wooden balls up into the rigging. Balls of different colors represented different disasters and therefore served as either requests for assistance or warnings to stay clear.
    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=balls up

    Naval Mutiny, Hangings and the First Hoisting of the Red Flag - Unions Celebrate their Ancestry
    UK – Something happening this month is a celebration by maritime and transport unions of two events which occurred well over two hundred years ago off the English coast, but which provided possibly one of the most significant moments in the history of the labour movement – the first occasion the red flag was raised during a bout of industrial action. At noon on Monday October 21 (Trafalgar Day) both trades unionists and historians will gather at the Crooked Billet Public House in High Street, Old Leigh in Essex (SS9 2EP) to witness the official launch of a new history of the events.

    In 1797, there were several major acts of protest by British seamen against various injustices, not least of which were claims to better pay and conditions. Royal Navy sailors pay had been set 139 years previously and never increased, despite both inflation, and the inception of copper hull cladding meaning much longer voyages away from home had become the norm.
    http://www.handyshippingguide.com/s...red-flag-unions-celebrate-their-ancestry_5029
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019 at 7:33 AM
  10. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Huh. I didn't know about its etymology. TIL... :)
     
  11. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    It turned out great, we got access to a great big free trade block just across the channel. You want to make us leave that market under the assumption that trade will be easier once we have left it. Which is about as bat****-crazy as reasoning gets.
     
  12. Mega Tsunami

    Mega Tsunami Chieftain

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    You seem to have misread wot I rote: I said “Euro” not EU.

    But talking of the EU, we have heard in the past from the likes of Mr Dyson, who sells his products in 200+ countries (mostly under WTO) saying that there is nothing to fear from trading under WTO. Now we have Lord Bamford, the Chairman of JCB saying much the same in today’s Torygraph:

    No Deal Brexit would end business uncertainty
    <snip>
    As a businessman with over 50 years of experience in selling construction and agricultural machinery all over the world and buying components from both EU and non-EU countries, I am used to operating on WTO terms. There is nothing to fear. Tariffs and import duties are simply characteristics of business life that most companies - including JCB - have long since adopted.
    <snip>

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/11/no-deal-brexit-would-end-business-uncertainty/

    So, are Mr Dyson and Mr Bamford "bat****-crazy" (whatever that is)?
     
  13. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    I was under the impression that the British public have had enough of experts. Are we now fine with them, provided that they're Brexiters?
     
  14. Mega Tsunami

    Mega Tsunami Chieftain

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    So if you have become a billionaire trading under WTO you are not allowed to talk about ‘trading under WTO’?
     
  15. metatron

    metatron deplorable ally

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    How the heck do you know Rewboss?
    I mean the guy has like two thousand hits on most of his videos.
     
  16. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    I didn't say that he wasn't allowed, just that since pretty much any non-Brexiter expert has been dismissed as Project Fear, why is James Dyson suddenly getting a pass? Is it because he's a known Brexiter?
     
  17. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Both are international businessmen in innovative businesses, setting up factories where labor is cheapest nearby new developing markets where their innovation is the base of the attractive products.
    Mr Dyson in character the combi of an inventor and a snake oil vacuum cleaner seller.
    In 2000 he wanted the UK to join the Euro. In 2016 he was a Brexiteer. The fully utilitarian approach to the max of his own business.
    His interests are clearly differing from the interests of the bulk of the people that were hit by the GBF crisis and voted Leave after 8 years austerity from the Tories. The north of England hit hardest.
    And yes, he knows, and Lord Bamford as well, how WTO functions for sure. The tariffs lower than the cost decrease of labor in the countries where they set up factories. And when you sell in the local market there are no WTO tariffs at all.
    But to what benefit is that for the people in the UK ?
    Except the money extracted in those developing countries funneled to the wealth of these two and some UK taxes.

    If we reallly take their advice all production except some aerospace, weapon, big pharma, etc should be outsourced to cheap labor countries.
    It will not help the old manufacturing working class, that voted so high on Leave.
    BUT WTO Brexit will help to lower labor cost and taxes for a great UK future a la the free market.
    And to keep for example the car industry in the UK you have only to reduce the labor cost with xyz %.
    Otherwise, a la the free market principle, the car industry is closed down except for Rolls Royces and Aston Martins
     
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  18. Cheetah

    Cheetah Chieftain

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    Yes. Or, of course, they are lying to further their own personal goals. Goals which do not include the wellbeing of the UK or its citisens.
     
  19. really

    really Chieftain

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    Despite being able to sell his stuff in 200+ countries a quick look at the Dyson group accounts suggests about three quarters of his sales are in Europe. If it is manufactured elsewhere and then imported then yes leaving the EU won't really bother him. It doesn't mean he can answer or decide for all.

    I work for a high profile English company that employs more than Dyson in the UK and has said publicly that Brexit is a threat to the business - does that cancel Dyson out?

    And yes a no deal Brexit would stop uncertainty. So would remaining or parliament backing Mays deal.
     
  20. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    Your own source admits that life outside the EU will be harder for business.

    And wasn't JCB fined millions for restrictive practices some time ago? Terrific role model.

    Both Dyson and JCB do most of their manufacturing outside the UK afaik. They represent the sort of selfish capitalism Brexiteers think they oppose - and yet these are precisely the sort of rich crony capitalists who lead the call for Brexit - because they know perfectly well that they won't be paying the price.
     

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