Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Silurian]

And yes a no deal Brexit would stop uncertainty. So would remaining or parliament backing Mays deal.

A no deal would not stop uncertainty because we would still try to make some deals with the EU, we would be trying to get FTAs and we would be trying to set WTO tariffs and quotas.
The May deal is only the withdrawal agreement, we still have to negotiate the final deal.
Even an end to Brexit may not remove uncertainty if the Conservatives split and Labour looses many votes in Brexit areas.

 

[Kyriakos]

Maybe it is time for the party that enabled the tories to rule to return from the grave- the ludicrous liberal/social/special democrats.
Afterall what is more socialist than balooning student debt?

Or the two foul kings, mogg and demagogg.

 

[Senethro]

Some early indications Labour are to schedule a no-confidence vote for after the vote on the deal...

 

[Silurian]

Maybe it is time for the party that enabled the tories to rule to return from the grave- the ludicrous liberal/social/special democrats.
Afterall what is more socialist than balooning student debt?

Or the two foul kings, mogg and demagogg.

Obviously with Tony at the helm.

 

[innonimatu]

A no deal would not stop uncertainty because we would still try to make some deals with the EU, we would be trying to get FTAs and we would be trying to set WTO tariffs and quotas.
The May deal is only the withdrawal agreement, we still have to negotiate the final deal.
Even an end to Brexit may not remove uncertainty if the Conservatives split and Labour looses many votes in Brexit areas.

This only shows the absurdity of the May deal and the alleged concerns over not passing it.

Those who defend the need for a better deal only have to leave without a deal and then negotiate a deal.

In the meanwhile the "uncertainty" over the UKs future is putting an end to the ruinous new nucelar power plant plans, one by one. That's one good thing out of brexit already.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Maybe it is time for the party that enabled the tories to rule to return from the grave- the ludicrous liberal/social/special democrats.
Afterall what is more socialist than balooning student debt?

Or the two foul kings, mogg and demagogg.

What's so foul about a Mog?

 

[Silurian]

This only shows the absurdity of the May deal and the alleged concerns over not passing it.

Those who defend the need for a better deal only have to leave without a deal and then negotiate a deal.

In the meanwhile the "uncertainty" over the UKs future is putting an end to the ruinous new nucelar power plant plans, one by one. That's one good thing out of brexit already.

Well the level of uncertainty does vary. The no deal is most uncertain since everything is up in the air.

The May deal gives us until the end of 2020 to negotiate the final deal. Its a pity we had not sorted it earlier so that we could be negotiating it now. There is a big risk that we will to continue to kick cans down the road and run out of time and end up with the backstop.

The risk of the Conservatives splitting are quite high if we stay. I would think that the split would be greater than the SDP split from Labour in the 80s. Then the risk may be a hung parliament with two conservative parties in power but fighting each other. If Labour win it is likely that the Brexit conservative would shrink as the SDP did until it joined UKIP as the SDP joined the Liberal Party.



Yes it looks like no Walfa and Fellside, every cloud has a silver lining.

 

[Takhisis]

I am still not seing how the uk parliament can negate the referendum so easily.

Legally the referendum is only advisory, since the elgal theory is that Parliament is sovereign and really they sort of acquiesce to the people's yearnings by granting them an election for the House of Commons every now and then. The House of Lords is still not democratically elected (and, paradoxically enough, they are often more sensible than the Commons).

 

[Takhisis]

Labour to make a move, blimey.

Brexit Labour set to call vote to topple Theresa May’s government
Opposition MPs told to get ready for no-confidence vote as top Tories admit they see no hope for PM’s Brexit deal​

 

[mitsho]

Just got this in my Twitter feed and feel like this is a very calmly and concisely stated 1-minute long argument on the current state of affairs and why nobody should feel sorry for Theresa May. She does end with "I'm sorry" though which made me laugh and which probably is so very British.

https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1083522115461177347?s=09

The britisch process just doesn't feel democratic to me. Democracy would require a clear list of steps and decisions and follow-up. Here they move deadlines, votes and more as they wish. But yeah, not my problem.

 

[Kyriakos]

Just got this in my Twitter feed and feel like this is a very calmly and concisely stated 1-minute long argument on the current state of affairs and why nobody should feel sorry for Theresa May. She does end with "I'm sorry" though which made me laugh and which probably is so very British.

https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1083522115461177347?s=09

The britisch process just doesn't feel democratic to me. Democracy would require a clear list of steps and decisions and follow-up. Here they move deadlines, votes and more as they wish. But yeah, not my problem.

She is cool, yet it isnt a point that the 27 eu countries are united in this. That is like saying that megara is united with thebes against the athenians. Sure- cause thebes runs all diplomacy.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I have yet to read a good article on the CPTPP, although it got a lot of shallow newsmedia coverage.

Likewise.

The UK has a huge and persistent trade deficit and on the back of that a huge and persistent Current Account deficit.

Exactly. The UK did not have a persistent trade deficit before it joined the EEC in 1973.

And Brexiteers believe that to be solved when doing trade with others.

This Leave voter has never believed that merely leaving the EU will result in that deficit disappearing.

For the people believing that the UK export is doing well, is growing, to other countries than the EU, has a positive net trade balance with other countries. For the people pointing out that the UK should stop importing so much from the EU because the net trade balance is becoming bigger. => "the future is for trade outside the EU".
When the UK exports cars to other countries with much of the components imported from the EU... the normal high level trade overviews (like in the newsmedia) do only show that gross effect used bty Brexiteers. If you deduct the imported car components value from both the UK imports and exports, the pictures changes greatly. The same happens with many other exports of the UK to other countries !!!
But yeah... in principle you would expect the UK Treasury to make true trade overviews based on the UK GVA (Gross Value Added), but that's a lot of work.
Leaving room for the Leavers to have their fantasies on that argument. Overviews taking the changed GBP rate into account for the future even more out of reach for the Treasury.

I, too, am sceptical of UK government statistics.

Not even a decent overview showing how little the UK export improved from the downfall of the GBP from around $1.45 to $1.28, which is especially hurting export goods needing lots of EU imports, does exist publicly AFAIK.

My opinion is that the devaluation did little more than neutralise a significant decline in exports that would have otherwise occurred without that devaluation.
Without confidence (Theresa May's policy has excerberated the inevitable uncertainty) the companies that benefit just take the extra cash but won't invest.

The truth is that the right wing Brexiteers do not care anyway because they intend to slash the social benefit cost and real wages to make the UK competitive for other countries. To hell with the many as long as they benefit.

The so called right wing Brexiters are a very small minority of those who voted to Leave the EU.
Many are the type that believe that cutting corporation and personal income taxes lead to heaven.

You can only import the stuff that you need from countries, when you have something attractive enough for those other countries to buy from you.

That is true in aggregate, but not for individual countries.

This means that once the financial wizardry that provides the credit, for UK population to splash out on buying largely unecessary goods
e.g fashion splurges, German cars and French wine that they cannot afford, crashes in the next recession, such imports will very greatly reduce.

One of the first things I would set up separately and immediately is a task group to greatly increase domestic food production.

Yes, and I have commented before on Clement Attlee's government very successful approach with a guaranteed price and a guaranteed market.

Sadly Michael Gove has not got a clue.

Here in NL that is Euro 60,000 a hectare, forcing the farmers to high productivity

Or is it that the higher productivity supports the higher price. It is that chicken and egg question.

With so many universities in the UK, it must be possible to have, to transform, at least one as champion of agricultural knowledge.

There are some agricultural colleges in the UK, but they are largely shunned by the so called academic universities.

What is required is that the UK government identify numbers of students required for the essential professions: dentists, electricians,
farmers, nurses, sewage engineers. surgeons, teachers, etc and very much limits apprentice/student grants/loans to those students.

 

[Arakhor]

Theresa May is repeating her refrain that rejecting this vote would be a breach of democracy. She is the one who's governed like an autocrat for two years, only giving ground to Parliament when literally forced to, and hasn't even had the backing of her own Cabinet much of the time. She is the biggest breach of democracy in this country and has been since she stupidly triggered Article 50.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

@ Cheetah, really & brennan

The point I was making – the likes of Bamford and Dyson have traded profitably under WTO and it is no big deal, it can be done.. Where there is a will there is a way (unless, it seems, you are a Remainer).

As for building stuff elsewhere, Land Rover has just started the building of a factory elsewhere in the EU effectively using some of our money. Thanks very much EU! I bet those 4,500 LR workers who have lost their jobs are lovin’ it.
The price some have to pay to be in the EU!

From the Torygraph:
Jaguar Land Rover: How EU rules left Slovakia free to entice car maker from UK with £110m state aid sweetener
Ever since the 2016 EU referendum, Jaguar Land Rover has been issuing grim warnings about job losses in the event of a hard Brexit. On Thursday morning, as it announced it was cutting its UK workforce by 4,500, it claimed “continuing uncertainty related to Brexit” was at least partly to blame.

Yet JLR’s decision over the past three years to move production of its Land Rover Discovery model from Solihull to Slovakia, creating 2,350 jobs in eastern Europe rather than in the UK, received little scrutiny.

As Remain-supporting ministers and the BBC warned of the dangers of Brexit to the car industry, Eurosceptic MPs cited JLR as a case study in why Britain needs to leave the EU, rather than maintaining the closest possible relationship, as the car firm would prefer.

JLR’s chief executive Ralf Speth has also been accused of using Brexit as a smokescreen to distract from poor strategic decisions that have cost the firm dearly in sales. An over-reliance on the Chinese market and on diesel-powered cars are among them.

The decision to switch production to eastern Europe - made in 2015, before the referendum - was made after Slovakia offered JLR £110 million in state aid as a sweetener.
Slovakia receives billions in net payments from the EU, funded by richer countries such as Britain, which are net contributors to Brussels.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ovakia-free-entice-jaguar-land-rover-uk-110m/

 

[Arakhor]

So, a company warns about job losses after Brexit, another EU country decides to offer them a home and somehow that is the EU's fault? Are we back to the EU being the amorphous incarnation of evil again?

 

[Hrothbern]

Just got this in my Twitter feed and feel like this is a very calmly and concisely stated 1-minute long argument on the current state of affairs and why nobody should feel sorry for Theresa May. She does end with "I'm sorry" though which made me laugh and which probably is so very British.

https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1083522115461177347?s=09

The britisch process just doesn't feel democratic to me. Democracy would require a clear list of steps and decisions and follow-up. Here they move deadlines, votes and more as they wish. But yeah, not my problem.

yeah
nice vid
What she says also is that the "Single Market" between nations is a real new civilisation invention, that many countries all over the world want to have as well with their neighbors.
And yes... that needs a base of

Democracy would require a clear list of steps and decisions and follow-up

I wonder how in ancient times the process went to come to a Rule of Law !
As a proto condition for our modern democracies.

We find the principle of a Rule of Law nowadays a foundation stone to our societies. They could, as they are, not exist without it. And we have opinions and discussions on how good, flawed, far-reaching, adaptive, etc they are and should be.
BUT... we do have no discussions whether Rule of Law should exist yes or no.

As in CIV as the game we play, Rule of Law was an civilisation, a cultural invention.
But for sure there were in those ancient times many people against the Rule of Law. Most likely beginning with the feudal middle management (between the ruler and the people).
Rule of Law is fundamentally undermining the personal "at will" sovereign freedom of the individual in exchange for the protection from higher bodies (while at the same time being taxed and surpressed by those higher bodies).
Why would an individual (strong, able healthy) hunter gather comply to the proto Rule of Law of his tribe ?
Why would a chieftain of a small nomad tribe comply to the Rule of Law of the bigger tribe composed out of all the small tribes of the offspring of his great-great-great-grandfather ? Comply to a Ten Commandments ? To what benefit is that for his own small tribe ? And even if there is a benefit... why would giving up his chieftain sovereignity be worth that benefit ?
And yet the Rule of Law came out as the winner in our civilisation development and our increased prosperity and practical overall freedom as a citizen.

The Rule of Law takes away some of the individual sovereignity in exchange for a bigger "practical & overall" sovereignity.
Which is very similar to what the Single Market does with individual nations, especially the smaller nations.

Single Market is something that will evolve further from all the discussions how to do it, evolve parallel and influenced by new techs and new CIV's.
Between nations.... and for that matter, also between states in federations like the US.
(The degree of Single Market in the US clearly improved since WW2, also because of the federal and civil society intention and attention, to remove inter-state protection barriers, intended and just leftovers of some old tradition, but as for example property laws in the US between states are differing, there are still barriers to take away for a higher degree of Single Market and for a higher economical prosperity)

Single Market is a process, just like Rule of Law once was.
And ofc it will contain abusive potential, just like the Rule of Law has.

And ofc there are freemen libertarians up to idiots like Trump (idiot in the ancient Greek sense of anti-democratic), that do not want to comply to any Law or rule, whether that is national or supra-national. They want full control on themselves and only believe in the "right" of the strongest.

 

[EnglishEdward]

In the meanwhile the "uncertainty" over the UKs future is putting an end to the ruinous new nucelar power plant plans, one by one. That's one good thing out of brexit already.

Excellent

I am neutral on nuclear power. But I believe that a country like the UK should either build the plants using its own resources or not build them at all.
Seeing George Osborne grandiosely signing up the next generation to pay debt to China or Japan for French plants that may not work, angered me.

With a bit of luck HS2 will be downgraded to a more modest railway line to improve capacity.

 

[Kyriakos]

So, a company warns about job losses after Brexit, another EU country decides to offer them a home and somehow that is the EU's fault? Are we back to the EU being the amorphous incarnation of evil again?

The eu, in the sense that matters to any non-eu gov (and currently britain) is certainly not the people but those politico-economical complexes, which tend to be run by very very few.

 

[Hrothbern]

Excellent

I am neutral on nuclear power. But I believe that a country like the UK should either build the plants using its own resources or not build them at all.
Seeing George Osborne grandiosely signing up the next generation to pay debt to China or Japan for French plants that may not work, angered me.

With a bit of luck HS2 will be downgraded to a more modest railway line to improve capacity.

exactly
enough wealth, brains, platforms (uni's) and scale size in the UK to do it yourself and to have that high tech level of economy integrated in your own economy including all the spin off (the GDP growth synergies).

And with renewables the same is happening.

 

[Arakhor]

The eu, in the sense that matters to any non-eu gov (and currently britain) is certainly not the people but those politico-economical complexes, which tend to be run by very very few.

So, not the EU at all? At least that's honest then.