I agree with arakhor, cause some trolls should not be fed, hrothbern. Re the debt, it artficially balooned during the "help". Check gdp to debt ratio to establish how helpful the "help" was. Anyway, i am disgusted by trolls.
Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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Back to Brexit gossip:
The darling Brexit negotiator of Theresa May Olly Robbins was overheard at a bar in Brussels saying that the strategy of May was to hold a vote shortly before March 29 with a long extension of the Art 50 period as plan B.
Such a long extension is also a threat to the no-deal Brexiteers, that will see this as a risk for Remain.
Brexit Minister Steve Barclay was quick to say that the PM decided such things and not some consummate civil servant.... but this civil servant is the trusted darling of May.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...k-governments-position-minister-idUSKCN1Q20NM
The darling Brexit negotiator of Theresa May Olly Robbins was overheard at a bar in Brussels saying that the strategy of May was to hold a vote shortly before March 29 with a long extension of the Art 50 period as plan B.
Such a long extension is also a threat to the no-deal Brexiteers, that will see this as a risk for Remain.
Brexit Minister Steve Barclay was quick to say that the PM decided such things and not some consummate civil servant.... but this civil servant is the trusted darling of May.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...k-governments-position-minister-idUSKCN1Q20NM
Facts are facts....
and should imo not be overwhelmed by opinions, pushing facts outside the discussion reality.
Once that happens trolls have the floor indeed.
And to be clear on the total package of financial actions of the EU: it did not help enough, and everybody could count on his fingers that it would not be enough to save the Greek economy and the jobs for the young generation.
The EU was more concerned about capital destruction within the EU than the economical destruction of 30% unemployed in Greece.
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That would be uncharacteristic for may. She has all kinds of negative traits (she is tory, after all) but does not seem to be risking votes. At least not after what happened in the last general election.
Verbose
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That assumes trust in the Greek government to actually do what it's supposed to do.
Which I would suggest is a big part of the problem. There are a previously established patterns to Greek governments. The risk is simply that a proper bail-out of of Greece around 2009-ish would just require a new 2024-ish repeat bail out, etc., etc.
You might be economically literate, but the bits that this sticks on tend to be political, and about risks.
Also, would it have been preferable if the EU had manned up and handled the post-Lehmann Brothers situation as a banking crisis, resolving it like one by nationalising insolvent banks, AND doing this in an EU-wide concerted effort? Absolutely!
Could the EU do that in 2009? Hell no!
The EU is not the US federal government. As a consequence of the crisis the ECB has by now been retooled into something more capable and functional than the simple anti-inflation mechanism the Germans had always insisted was be be-all, end-all of the ECB up to that time. So back then, not a chance...
Isn't that exciting? First, we had the PM openly admitting the longevity of the Tory party came before a Parliamentary majority for Brexit, and now we have evidence to suggest that the PM is not just incompetently running down the clock, but that she is doing it quite deliberately. If you want betrayal, it seems that Judas Iscariot is already sitting in Number 10.
According to borges, maybe judas (not jesus) is none other than god himself; being superhumanly modest he wanted to take only blame yet save humanity by typically setting the final act going.
But this is not borges. So may likely is either anna or her bff kaiafa.
This is not offtopic; if you can have braindead anti-greece posts you stand to gain by some culture.
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Some would also say it was Greek GDP that had "artificially ballooned" on decades of influx of overly cheap credit and aid from EU structural funds. But let me guess, such heretical talk disgusts you.
It's ok, you live in a country that has the gdp of a small town, so keep ventingSome would also say it was Greek GDP that had "artificially ballooned" on decades of influx of overly cheap credit and aid from EU structural funds. But let me guess, such heretical talk disgusts you.
How you 'd tie all this to sheep is really beyond meGiven how much you hate Athens, I thought you'd approve of the bucolic lifestyle.
I won't opine whether or not it would have been smart to take over the banks - I'll just point out that for Greece, that change would have made no difference, nor would it have increased the will of the public anywhere to pick up their tab.
I have no idea how that is germane to anything here, but yes, we are a small country. Even so, I believe our GDP per capita is larger than that of Greece... not that surpassing a country that has been on an unbroken downward spiral for ~1500 years should be a particular point of pride, of course. But I understand how this state of affairs might make one unreasonably embitteredIt's ok, you live in a country that has the gdp of a small town, so keep venting
The problem was not Greece, but the much larger Italy.
Any solution for Greece could not be a precedent for Italy.
But still that was possible without really affecting the financial status of the triple A countries of the EU (Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Luxembourg), with a lesser amount for the AA123 countries (Austria, Finland, France, Belgium):
I do not have ofc the list of all Greek and Italian bonds of say 1990 onward with all the interests paid, so I have to guess....
(Greece is around 1992 already in a dire situation, so you have to start somewhere 1990)
But with that guess... the grand total of interests adjusted for the historical inflation (which is the profit of the money lenders) for Greece and Italy was imo well within a healthy reach to pay for by the triple A and double A countries. That debt relief for Greece, Italy, would not really have affected their own interests to pay on new bonds needed because of that action.
And taking over for at least 10 future years renewing bonds for the existing debt at inflation correction only also well within financial means of the rich EU countries.
And ofc conditions to prevent building up new debt. And ofc an economical plan forward (finance cannot grow economy if there is no real base economy).
And that would have reduced the debt of Greece to the actual amount of money they pumped over those decades since 1990 in their economy.
And they would not have to pay for any debt caused by profits of any investor in their bonds.
The 4% Greece pays now on new bonds on the market is a waste of EU money, is onley making big wealth more wealthy (the triple A EU countries are paying far less than 1% on new 10 year bonds)
All the emotional arguments that banks (of other EU countries) and big money (of other EU countries) are benefitting from Greece etc are evaporated.
(the only thing remaining that public money needed to be used to pay private profits... except that 107 Billion Euro that was defaulted)
The Greece, or EU mess in this case, is imo an emotional mess from both sides, and not at all reflecting prudent Finance.
And back to Brexit.
The emotions in the UK are such that financial and economical realities are completely overwhelmed by emotional politics, practised by politicians, by newsmedia, by the people.
By betraying leaders of their country.
In that sense the UK is heading for a similar disaster at a smaller scale.
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Silurian
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Most people in the UK did not care about the Greek debt crises.
Many of the pro Brexit supporters said that the EU bailing out the Greeks just showed how bad the EU was.
The story has changed now but only as a stick to beat the EU what people believe has not changed.
Godfrey Bloom UKIP MEP
Many of the pro Brexit supporters said that the EU bailing out the Greeks just showed how bad the EU was.
The story has changed now but only as a stick to beat the EU what people believe has not changed.
Godfrey Bloom UKIP MEP
Indeed, the party that was ruling Estonia at the time and supported the bailout still takes semi-regular flak in online comments "for having thrown our own money at 'em [insert random unflattering adjective] Greeks" (but not at whatever is the pressing need of the day).
Of course it is just a stick to beat one's political opponents with, but it illustrates the point well.
The complaint is "EU is bad because it forced us to pay for Greece".
"The EU is bad because look at what it did to poor Greece" complaint only ever caught traction outside the Eurozone it seems... not that one is smarter than the other, mind you.
Verbose
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Oh sure, absolutely! Back then the risk of domino effects was quite real, with Greece not the main worry, but much larger Italy.
But even if the financial clout was technically there, in the more financially solid member states, to handle a EU-wide banking crisis, I cannot see that there was any kind if mechanism in place that could have coordinated it. Part of the political emotional baggage about the situation was the initial nerfing of the ECB at German insistence, that they only thing it really should do, because Germany fears it like the plague, was fight inflation.
NOW it can do more, as an effect of the crisis back then, but it took that crisis to make it politically acceptable.
Lexicus
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And I'll note that this was due to the same inability on the part of SYRIZA as "leftists" in this thread to see the EU for what it really is.
That was my whole point. It was politics: a question of who matters. As Hrothbern said.
Alright, here's my prediction: at the next crisis the response from the ECB will be largely focused on "structural readjustments", reducing government deficits, and keeping inflation low. It will not do "more".
Of course, the problem for the UK is similar. I wonder what the political effects will be when the people who wanted to Brexit realize that Brexit has fixed none of their problems and, in fact, provided an opportunity for the Tories to make most of those problems even worse.
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Don't bring facts into this!
This is about ze Djermans being at it again!
The new tool kit will be used for certain situations, but never at a grand scale for just one country.
I guess it will most of all be used as a more smooth mechanism in a "carrot and the stick" approach to "help" governments in "structural readjustments" and only when a country is in a real bad situation.
It will ofc also depend on what caused the issue, and how strong the social democrats are in the EU parliament, how many PM's are leftish. (What Wolfgang Schauble did made the German SPD furious)
It will not differ very much from the IMF with the difference that money flowing through EU channels is also beneficial for the total EU economy in terms of growth and stability. (for the IMF much more dilluted)
And I think that is one of the real bottom lines:
How valuable, as an integrated trading partner, is a country in distress for the other members ?
How big is the difference in that (trading) value, in the "un-helped" situation compared to the "helped" situation: the fully utilitarian approach
(which failed imo in the case of Greece, because in that pure financial thinking, 30% unemployed is plain stupid)
On top of that bare bottom line is the EU project which is much less supported by nationalists and short term thinking groups, but nevertheless there.
In the case of Brexit, without that EU project effect, we can see the bare bottom line... in effect the normal relation between countries seeking the economical win-wins within political constraints.
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