Lexicus
Deity
Now this abbreviation is gentlemanly!
Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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Now this abbreviation is gentlemanly!
Backfired? I don think so. As long as the defeats in the Commons have no actual consequences, it plays right into her current tactic of running down the clock. Negotiations with the EU without any new offer are a dead end anyway, I and strongly suspect that the UK government is aware of that at this point. At the moment, May is preparing everything for a "my deal or no deal" vote a week before Brexit. And until Parliament can get enough votes for anything that has any legal teeth, this is where we are headed.
The hope of May is that Labour will crumble under the pressure of a "my deal or no deal" vote and agree to her deal. And my guess is that she will be right, because Labour will heavily suffer if they let a no-deal Brexit happen.
Lexicus
Deity
That may have the potential to split the Labour party I suppose. Bad news if that's how it plays out.
I'm reading elsewhere that Germany, France and the UK are about to create a new mechanism called Instex, which would allow Iran to trade with the EU without being exposed to US sanctions.
How would that fit with the UK leaving the EU in some 6 weeks?
How would that fit with the UK leaving the EU in some 6 weeks?
Has the UK decided what it wants yet?
Meanwhile there were a couple of big ads in the paper today referencing the high court of England and Wales about objections to transfers of insurance businesses to Ireland (Prudential and Royal London)
Bank of America have moved their European business here and said recently about the UK: 'There is no return there'
Basically the cost to return would never be worth the benefit, whatever happens.
Meanwhile there were a couple of big ads in the paper today referencing the high court of England and Wales about objections to transfers of insurance businesses to Ireland (Prudential and Royal London)
Bank of America have moved their European business here and said recently about the UK: 'There is no return there'
Basically the cost to return would never be worth the benefit, whatever happens.
I understand there will be another in-between crunch at the end of this month.
But I do not really believe that. My guess stays at the end of March for the real showdown.
What will happen is this visit of Corbyn to Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstadt next week.
May says she is not happy with that, but whether this visit could change anything or not, she would say that anyway.
Speculating:
What the result could be is that an amendment on the final March vote is worked out between Corbyn and Barnier of which Corbyn can claim in time before the vote that Brussels is likely to accept that.
But that would not be pain free for Corbyn. By that action of HIM, he would become responsible for a Brexit deal, whereas many of his members and voters just want Remain.
But more likely seems to me that Corbyn will be very well updated on what happened between the EU and May, to get him better informed, getting more of a level playing ground between May and Corbyn, enabling more chance for Corbyn to be effective.
I think the EU sees no longer May as the representative for the UK
But I do not really believe that. My guess stays at the end of March for the real showdown.
What will happen is this visit of Corbyn to Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstadt next week.
May says she is not happy with that, but whether this visit could change anything or not, she would say that anyway.
Speculating:
What the result could be is that an amendment on the final March vote is worked out between Corbyn and Barnier of which Corbyn can claim in time before the vote that Brussels is likely to accept that.
But that would not be pain free for Corbyn. By that action of HIM, he would become responsible for a Brexit deal, whereas many of his members and voters just want Remain.
But more likely seems to me that Corbyn will be very well updated on what happened between the EU and May, to get him better informed, getting more of a level playing ground between May and Corbyn, enabling more chance for Corbyn to be effective.
I think the EU sees no longer May as the representative for the UK
Lexicus
Deity
May is the representative for the UK.
The UK does not know what it wants collectively.
She is representing that.
More than that - different parts of the UK want contradictory things. For example whether it is a majority now or not a large cohort of Britons do not want to leave the EU at all.
Two donkeys so the story goes,
Were tethered each to each,
When lo, they neared two shocks of hay,
That seemed within their reach.
Each sought his own: the rope grew taut,
As though each would apply
His utmost strength to take his share
Or know the reason why.
They pulled and scraped and pawed and kicked,
As though indeed insane –
But not by foolish stunts could they
One single bite obtain.
Were tethered each to each,
When lo, they neared two shocks of hay,
That seemed within their reach.
Each sought his own: the rope grew taut,
As though each would apply
His utmost strength to take his share
Or know the reason why.
They pulled and scraped and pawed and kicked,
As though indeed insane –
But not by foolish stunts could they
One single bite obtain.
The ides.
Hm, so will the uk pay those tens of billion euro if may's deal happens? People in hyperborea need more money to stuff their bloated form asap.
Personally i am bored with the brexit saga. Only interest for me is a hypothetical relocation to scottyland.
Personally i am bored with the brexit saga. Only interest for me is a hypothetical relocation to scottyland.
Cheetah
Deity
The May deal includes the UK standing by its financial commitments, yes. Those commitments are estimated to be about €39 billion. The cash is not the important part -- and definitely not something that should be controversial! -- we simply expect the UK to stand by their previous commitments.
If you want to guarantee your stay in Scotland under May's deal, you should probably aim to move there before March 29th, however.
And under a no-deal, we don't know yet.
If you want to guarantee your stay in Scotland under May's deal, you should probably aim to move there before March 29th, however.
And under a no-deal, we don't know yet.
I think yes, the UK has no real choice.
Theresa May, the PM of the UK, representing formally, legally the UK, said in a major speech in Florence, to a wide audience and in public, in September 2017 that:
“I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave.
The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership.”
Not paying that amount, due over many years BTW, will lead to A. a court case, B. a WTO relation with the EU,
And most importantly an uncertain business relation with the EU, affecting investments in the UK and an unreliable international status, affecting Global UK trade, as long as that payment of commitments is not "settled".
This did and does not seem to bother Rees-Mogg and most of his club... but they want a no-deal WTO anyway.
Although Liam Fox of that club, unfortunately the one to do all these new deals around the world, has already found out that he is getting nowhere, and wants meanwhile the May deal in order to get more time, stating that "ideological purity" was unhelpful, sending "the wrong signals on thrustworthiness in the raw politics of negotiations".
Which did BTW not stop the action of that Defense Minister threatening China to send his aircraft carrier to them to "teach" them, and the immediate reaction of China was to end the trade negotiations with the UK.
Cheetah
Deity
Strong and stable.
The entertainment value of the American political implosion is significantly better, yes.
There's just more swag and... monster trucks, figuratively speaking.
This however is just about a dozen rather cliched English persons lying a lot in an errant bid to cover their incompetence.
It's honestly just bad television at this point, with the only remedying factors being Tom Walker and Anna Soubry.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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There are no "previous commitments" outside the EU. The UK's commitments were predicated on the UK being a member of the EU and obtaining in exchange ongoing commitments from the EU. When those commitments cease, when the EU withdraws from the UK all the benefits of being a member, so do the UK's.
You cannot claim that the UK's "commitments" were also in the future, but that the befits coming from those shared efforts were only in the present and suddenly have to cease on brexit day. That the shared skills, buildings, institutions, suddenly cease working for the UK on that day while the UK must still keep paying fro them? Ridiculous. They do not suddenly cease working. The UK should answer that ridiculous demand for payment by demanding to be paid off on leaving, have the EU buy out the UK's share on the common goods of the EU. That should underscore hoe ridiculous that demand from the EU is.
No deal, no money. Let Brussels suck it.
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